Good evening from SCW!

After the heat and humidity the past several days, today has been a real treat, with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. In the short term, this trend will continue, but by the middle of the forecast period, heat and humidity is back once again. The calendar may say we’re at the end of meteorological summer, but the forecast certainly does not.
 
Saturday-Monday
 
Still looks like a dry forecast for the long weekend, with only a slight chance of a sprinkle or widely scattered shower. Highs should increase each day, with temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s tomorrow, the mid 80s on Sunday, and the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Mostly sunny skies should be expected each day, although morning clouds and fog are possible each morning as well.

Here's a look at forecast highs on the GFS for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Tuesday-Friday
 
As the surface high pressure currently over the area moves east, this allows the ridge to strengthen again and send another pulse of tropical heat and humidity into the region. Expect the peak of the heat to be on Tuesday, with highs well into the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, but hot (upper 80s/lower 90s) weather is expected through the end of the week, when a cold front approaches from the west and brings some much-appreciated relief for next weekend. Some timing differences between the Euro and the GFS on when this comes in; the GFS brings it through by Thursday evening while the Euro holds off until mid-day Friday and is generally weaker overall.
 
With that cold front, we will likely see shower and thunderstorm activity as is typical, but far too early to speculate on any potential for severe weather. Otherwise, there is a chance of some storms on Tuesday and Wednesday from a backdoor front (also why we will see temps drop a bit for the rest of the week) but no significant precipitation is expected.
 
The Dailies
 
Saturday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Have a great long weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

Good afternoon from SCW.

We depart from looking at current and future weather to take a look back at Hurricane Irene, which made landfall as a tropical storm seven years ago today. 

Overview
Like many of the tropical systems that impact Connecticut and the US, Irene began as a strong tropical wave that left the coast of Africa in mid August 2011. At its peak, Irene was a Category Three hurricane, with winds of 105kts (120mph) and 942mb central pressure, making it a major hurricane. After menacing the Bahamas, Irene began to make its final approach toward New England.

By the time all was said and done, Irene was responsible for 48 US deaths over its lifespan, 40 direct and 8 indirect. Direct deaths broke down as followed: 

• 6 deaths due to storm surge/waves or rip currents
• 13 deaths due to wind (including falling trees)
• 21 deaths due to rainfall induced floods

*Data and images in this post are from the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Irene. For more information, go here. 

Above: Archived radar loop of Tropical Storm Irene as it hit the state

Below: Best track of Hurricane Irene

Upper Level Pattern
For many landfalling systems in New England, a delicately timed and positioned upper level balance is necessary for a turn north and into the region. In Irene, a subtropical ridge that steered the system west-northwest when it was near the Caribbean islands and Bahamas shifted eastward, while a trough moved over the continental US simultaneously. As a result, Irene got caught in the flow that propelled the system north-northwest, and then northward. Irene made landfall on Coney Island on August 28, though impacts from the storm were felt in Connecticut the day before. 

Connecticut Impact
The large size of Irene created a situation that allowed for significant storm surge along significant portions of the Connecticut coast, with storm surge values between 4-6 feet being reported in parts of New England. Irene was responsible for one of the greatest power outage events in the state's history, leaving millions in the larger New England region without power for up to a week in many cases and longer for others. While catastrophic flash flooding did not occur in Connecticut, it did in parts of northern New England. 

Not every site in CT experienced tropical storm force sustained winds, but many sites inland and along the coast did receive tropical storm force gusts. 

Overall
Irene was not the strongest storm the state has seen, but because of its size and power, it killed people and caused significant damage in the state, particularly in southern Connecticut. Irene is a reminder that Connecticut can be directly impacted by tropical systems, and that it does not need to be classified as a hurricane to be severe for the state. 

​What were your memories of Irene? Please feel free to share them in the comments section on our Facebook page. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

We are now entering the last week of meteorological summer, which lasts June, July, and August. In just a few short days, we turn the page to September and closer to the official start of fall. It won't feel like it much of this week however, as we stare down another heatwave. 

Monday
Tomorrow will be day 1 of the heat wave for a number of spots in interior Connecticut. Although the humidity will increase a bit, tomorrow does not look oppressive. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
These two days are the worst of the heat statewide. I expect to see hazy, hot, and humid conditions that are oppressive. I wouldn't be surprised to see heat advisories issued for the state during this period. Highs will range in the mid to upper 90s inland, and just a few degrees lower along much of the shoreline. The heat index will likely range near to just above 100 for inland spots. There won't be much relief in the way of afternoon thunderstorms, with rain chances being very low.

Thursday
Earlier it looked like Thursday would be the day the heat wave breaks, but now it is looking like the cold front that will bring relief is going to be hung up in the region, making it more likely that Thursday is another 90 degree day. With the front close by, this is our chance to see showers and thunderstorms, most likely to occur in the late afternoon and evening hours. 

Friday-Sunday
Some guidance is suggesting that the front remains stalled over the region and instead of a nice period, it is cloudy and wet. Despite this past weekend being the only fully dry weekend in over a month, I'm going to buck the trend and forecast a mostly dry Labor Day weekend. The weekend should be refreshing, with highs in the low 80s and much lower humidity. I'll only introduce small odds of showers in the dailies. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny with increased humidity. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny, hot and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and low 90s at the shore (outside of SE CT). 

Wednesday: Partly sunny, hot and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and low 90s at the shore. 

Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Partly sunny with lower humidity. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of showers 20%. 

Saturday: Partly sunny and comfortable. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of showers 20%. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers 20%. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

Good evening from SCW! 

We had a wonderful start to the week, with lower humidity and partly sunny skies. That will change tomorrow, as we see rain, thunderstorms, and the potential for severe weather. Overall, however, the rest of the week and I daresay weekend look pretty good! Details below. 

Wednesday
Tomorrow is not going to be the best of weather days. We will likely see a couple rounds of rain and storms, centered on tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon. Rain will be heavy at times and we cannot rule out some isolated severe weather. It will be worth keeping an eye to the sky and radar tomorrow. We will be here to update you if conditions warrant. 

Thursday/Friday
Thursday and Friday look wonderful. After a cold front moves through tomorrow night, things dry out and clear up for the end of the week as high pressure also settles in. Expect seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and less humid conditions! 

Saturday
The start of the weekend looks marvelous. High pressure will remain in control and we should see another seasonable and dry day. 

Sunday
Sunday begins the transition out of our nice stretch of weather and back toward hot and humid conditions. We will see more humid conditions and the approach of some showers by later in the evening, heralding the arrival of a warmer and stickier regime. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the school year for some next week will be hot. Currently I'm expecting a big warmup, especially inland, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and humid conditions. There will likely also be a low chance for storms. 

The Dailies
Wednesday: Rain and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Thursday: Sunny and comfortable. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Friday: Sunny and comfortable. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and comfortable. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny and increasingly humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of showers 30%. 

Monday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of showers 10%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of showers 10%. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

​Good afternoon to you from SCW!
 
Tonight
 
An area of strong thunderstorms is beginning to develop to our west, and short range guidance suggests that these cells will coalesce into a more defined squall line as they approach our area later tonight. As is typical in a frontal passage, western areas will have the best chance of seeing severe weather, and as such the SPC has issued a Slight Risk for the northwestern third of the state, with a severe thunderstorm watch potentially being issued later this afternoon(Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the state excluding New London and Windham counties). Strong winds are the primary threat with these storms, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms will generally enter the state after nightfall, although we could see some isolated showers beforehand, and I expect most activity to weaken to sub-severe levels by approximately midnight.
 
Here’s a look at the HRRR’s simulated radar for the rest of the evening.

​Saturday-Sunday
 
A mixed bag once again for your weekend as a frontal boundary stalls over the area for Saturday; this will bring showers and thunderstorms to the state tomorrow along with a continuation of the muggy weather. The front slides south for Sunday, and as of right now looks like it will move far enough out of our way that we will stay mostly dry, but a chance of showers is still possible with southern areas being the most likely to see some precipitation. Regardless, Sunday will be the coolest day we’ve seen in a while, with highs topping out in the low 70s.
 
Monday-Thursday
 
Generally cooler and drier for most of the upcoming week, although heat and humidity will return to some extent Tuesday into Wednesday as a system passes to our west and puts us back in the warm sector. That system also looks to bring us some rain on Wednesday; the GFS is a bit more aggressive with steady rain throughout much of the day while the Euro advertises showers. Could be another round of severe thunderstorms later Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, but far too early to speculate on the details of what that might look like. Behind the front, cooler temperatures look likely moving into next weekend, but how long they will last is unclear.
 
Here’s a look at the frontal system on the GFS.

The Dailies

Saturday: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 70s. Chance of rain is 40%.
Monday:  Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
 
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA