Disc: Fairly tranquil weather will persist through the first 2/3 of the Labor Day weekend.  Temperatures will fluctuate, as is fairly common this time of year.  The biggest question for this package will be where Dorian goes and what, if any, his impacts are on our region.   That will be addressed near the end of the discussion.

Currently: Low pressure. the remnants of Erin, is attached to a cold front, about 350 miles east of ACY.  This is having little impact on our weather, other than to create a refreshing breeze.  High pressure over KY is in control today.  Hurricane Dorian is located about 300 mi East of the Bahamas, per NHC.

Tonight: The biggest question for tonight's temperatures is how effective radiational cooling can be and whether or not winds stay up.  Given the dry air mass in place and the remnants of Erin moving further away, I'd bet that winds would diminish, but not enough to fully decouple.  So I won't go real low for lows, but I will go with the cooler (NAM) guidance.  Expect a wide range in low temperatures tonight, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Tomorrow: Fair skies, pretty close to today.  I am going to shave a couple degrees of MOS guidance, because gridded data does not agree with it.  It should be noted that a fairly strong cold front does go through tomorrow.  However, I couldn't find one model that brings measurable precipitation anywhere into the state, so we'll run with a dry forecast.   Just pointing it out, because in case there is a shower somewhere, at least we know the mechanism.  Expect high tempreatures to be close to 80 statewide.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Cold air advection moves in and we'll enjoy beautiful weather.  Guidance is in pretty good agreement, so a split is in order, and highs should be in the upper 70s pretty much statewide Saturday.

Long Term: First, before I get to the dailies and specifics, I wanted to make some comments regarding Hurricane Dorian.  First off, any effects that Hurricane Dorian has on the local area will be completely left out of the long term forecast, for now.  There are several resons for this.  First, the track of Dorian, after he hits Florida, is highly uncertain, although there is likely to be some poleward component eventually.  Secondly, the timing is highly uncertain, as some models have introduced a bit of a stalling scenario regarding Dorian now.  Finally, based on the above, it is highly uncertain as to what effects, if any, the storm has on our area.  It could pass well west of the region, which would mean enhanced rainfall along a cold front.  It could ride the coast, which would mean at least a strong nor'easter and perhaps even a full-blown tropical storm.  It could also hook out to sea, meaning little or no effects on the region.  In addition, it is also highly possible that any Dorian-related effects on our area occur after this forecast period- yet another reason for leaving it out.  

What we do know is that Dorian will have major impacts in Florida this holiday weekend, and should also generate life-threatening rip currents up and down the east coast, so use caution if headed to any beaches.  Finally we also know that any impacts up here will not be nearly as significant as they will be in Florida.

Now for the dailies.. .First, expect fair weather on Sunday.  Due to the fact that the front is still hundreds of miles away and there is an onshore component to the wind, I have ignored any models that show precipitation over the state on Sunday.  I also see no reason to quibble with MOS guidance, so it was generally followed.  Expect highs in the mid 70s, except low 70s in the NW hills and along the south coast.

A frontal system approaches for Labor Day, which should trigger showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.  Instability may be limited due to onshore flow, so we may not get intense convection, but time will tell.  Once again, I see no reason to quibble with guidance temperatures, which are in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday could be a bit tricky.  We'll be in between frontal systems, so verbatim, it should be dry.  However, the air mass may actually be a bit more unstable and will certainly be humid.  For now, I"ll go with a "cautious" Dry forecast.  It will turn warmer, but I will not go quite as warm as today's GFS guidance, because I am expecting more clouds.  So I'll go with highs in the low 80s, except near 80 in the NW Hills and along the south coast.

On Wednesday, a stronger front approaches.  In addition, a very hot and humid air mass (for the time of year) will be in place.  These are the right ingredients for potentially strong thunderstorms.  Of course, timing has to work out, and we do not know if it will or not at this juncture.  Being ahead of a front, Wednesday seems like a good day to go a touch above forecast guidance.  So I'll call for highs in the mid to upper 80s.  

Beyond that, it really depends on what happens with Dorian and our frontal zone.  For now, we'll assume that we're post frontal, so it should be much cooler and nice, but this could change in a big way over the next week.  Assuming our reasoning is correct, we'll go with fair skies and highs somewhere in the 70s, depending on your location within the state.

In my humble opinion, the long range looks to feature above normal temperatures through the first 10 to 15 days of September, with perhaps a change to below normal temperatures thereafter.


Now, let's take a look at the evolution of the Labor Day (and beyond) frontal system and how it may impact our weather.  First, for Labor Day itself, you can see showers and thunderstorms over NY and NJ approaching our area.  You can also see Dorian has made landfall on the Florida Coast.

​

Finally, let's take a look at the mid-week (next week) frontal passage.  On this image, you can follow the front along the 570 thickness line from NPA through Central NYS, through NNE.  There are showers and thunderstorms ahead of it.  Dorian has moved very little and is moving N, over Srn GA.  The evolution of this frontal system and the Western Atlantic (Bermuda) Ridge will determine where Dorian goes from there.

​

That's all for now! See you all next week!

​-GP!

​Good afternoon from SCW! There is a chance for thunderstorms tonight, with a possibility of damaging winds and hail across mostly northern Connecticut. Looking ahead, tomorrow looks like a similar story before we cool down for the weekend…
 
 
Currently temperatures are in the low-80s across the state, but oppressively high dew points are making it feel very muggy outside. The shoreline is staying slightly cooler from a sea breeze associated with the state-wide southerly flow. Spotty showers and thundershowers are moving through the state and will exit by late evening tonight as a result of a weak shortwave moving across the New England region. Now is where things get interesting…

​Tonight:
For tonight, relative humidity will remain high as temperatures drop. In addition, CAPE values will continue to climb to around the 2500-3000 mark, which is a good indicator of thunderstorm potential. And to add on to that helicity values and wind shear also are supportive of thunderstorms late tonight as well. In the upper atmosphere a 500 mb jet will swing across the great lakes, and if this jet moves closer to New England we could see some severe thunderstorms pop up across upstate New York, Massachusetts, and northern Connecticut. Now there are ingredients for thunderstorms, but another factor to take into account is the re-stabilization of the atmosphere as the sun sets, and the fuel for these systems starts to diminish. The timing for this event will be around midnight tonight, and the models tend to keep the heaviest of thunderstorms to the northern counties of CT for tonight, but I wouldn’t rule out a thunderstorm or two developing across the rest of the state.
 

Tomorrow:
Tomorrow humidity and temps will be slightly worse than today, with a possible peak of sunshine in the afternoon before clouds build in for the evening again. Tomorrow night into Friday morning we run the risk of thunderstorms as a cold front approaches, and instabilities similar to today remain in the region. Highs for tomorrow will be in the mid 80s, or locally higher if the sun can stay out long enough.
 
This Weekend:
 Friday temperatures take a plummet and humidity will drop off with the institution of a northerly flow from an associated high pressure system. Temperatures may not even break the 80s for Friday, Saturday, and even Sunday as high pressure will keep us cooler and dry. That is good news for any festivals/fairs going on this weekend as we head towards the end tail of summertime. The start of next week will continue this dry pattern until midweek, where we may see some wet weather and a return to warmer temperatures for the second part of next week.
 

Here is the GFS forecast for inland Connecticut through Monday next week.

Here is the GFS forecast for the shoreline of Connecticut through Monday next week.

The Dailies
 
Thursday: Oppressive. Highs in the upper-80s with very humid weather. Chance for thunderstorms late.
 
Friday: Improving conditions with sunnier skies and milder conditions. Highs in the 70s with a slight wind from the north.
Saturday: Sunny and mild. Highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and mild. Highs in the upper 70s.
Monday: Chance for a shower. Highs in the upper 70s.
Tuesday: Cloudier with highs in the 70s.
Wednesday: Chance for a shower, otherwise cloudy and warmer with highs around 80.
 
 
 
Thank you for reading SCW!
-LD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Disc: Not a whole lot going on across the Eastern CONUS today- some thunderstorms have flared up along various little sea breeze boundaries, otherwise the weather is mostly quiet.

Currently: A wave of low pressure over the Eastern Shore of Maryland, combined with various mesoscale boundaries across the region have triggered areas of showers and thunderstorms.  For those not receiving any rain, the overall day was not so bad today.

Tonight: Most of the convection is diurnally-driven, so I would expect any thunderstorms to diminish rapidly after dark, although I'd keep just a chance in until around midnight, especially along the south coast, where we're closer to the Long Island Sound breeze boundary.  Temperatures are a bit tricky tonight- first, because some areas have seen rain, which has cooled the air, and others have not, and secondly, because it is uncertain how much we'll clear tonight.  I don't see any mechanism to clear the skies out so much tonight, so I'll go a degree warmer than the warmest guidance.   This yields lows mostly in the mid 60s.

Tomorrow: Not a whole lot going on... there is deep layer marine flow most of the day, which does two things this time of year.  First, it keeps temperatures cooler, and secondly, it stabilizes the atmosphere.  There is also no real mechanism for a lot of sun tomorrow.  I'll go with the warmer guidance sets tomorrow for two reasons.  First, models tend to overdo onshore flow's effect on temperatures this time of year, and secondly, because any peak of sun will rapidly raise the temperatures.  So I'll call for highs generally around 80, except cooler along the immediate south coast.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: Still not too much going on. Onshore flow will continue, so this will continue to suppress both temperatures and thunderstorm chances.  I'll use a guidance split for temperatures, as high-resolution guidance tends to really be too cold in onshore flow, especially that far out.  Still, with lots of clouds and a deep marine layer, highs should generally only be in the mid 70s, except maybe a few upper 70s in the CT valley.

Long Term (the weekend and beyond): In summary, it will turn much hotter for the bulk of the long term, as the flow becomes more land-based and the Bermuda Ridge takes over.  The best chances for thunderstorms will be in the beginning and end of the period, with something of a lull in the middle.

The dailies- Saturday: Guidance temperatures are generally accepted.  Diurnal-based thunderstorms should be scattered about during the day, with some lingering instability.  Humidity will be on the increase, with highs in the lower 80s.

On Sunday, it will continue to turn hotter, as the Bermuda Ridge continues to assert itself.  Look for high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.  An MCS will dive out of the Great Lakes during the day Sunday.   Any thunderstorms in association with this system should hold off until after dark.  Partly due to the timing, and partly due to the nature of the instability associated with this system, the NW hills would be favored to see the most action from this system.

For Monday, guidance temperatures again are accepted, which yields upper 80s in all locations, and some locations in the I 91 corridor reaching or exceeding 90! Thunderstorm activity should be pretty quiet, although on a day like this, you can't rule out an isolated storm across the NW hills.  One of them just might go strong to severe, as well, given the amount of CAPE in the atmosphere, due to the heat.

Tuesday's temperatures should be very close to those of Monday.  I went above guidance by a couple of degrees both days.  There really is not much air mass change, but the MOS is cooler, due to climatology having a bigger influence in the algorithm that far out.  Wednesday's temperatures should be 2 to 3 degrees cooler than those of Monday, due to the fact that we'll likely see more cloud cover and storminess.  A fairly strong cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon.  Due to the Bermuda Ridge being so strong, it is likely that this front stalls somewhere over the Northeast US.  Therefore, a line of thunderstorms likely affects the state later Tuesday and waves of showers and thunderstorms could continue right through Wednesday.

Long Range musings: There doesn't appear to be any trigger for a huge pattern change in the long range, so I'd generally expect a lot more of the same: temperatures generally normal to above normal, with frequent chances for thunderstorms.

Now, let's take a look at a couple systems slated to affect the region... I'll show Saturday's possible thunderstorms and then a look at early next week, in graphical format.  On this map, valid midday Saturday, you can see showers and thunderstorms across New Jersey.  They should head toward our area later on.  At this time, due to timing, it is unclear how much will survive.  However, western sections of the state would be favored.

​

This next map, valid midnight Tuesday night, showers showers and thunderstorms all across the state.  You can also see there is a lot more to come, as the moisture feed extends well down into MIssouri! However, take a look at the high pressure building down into Quebec.  This is going to set up an interesting little war, between moisture feeding in from the SW, and cooler, drier air, trying to push down from the north.  Stay tuned!

​

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!

-GP!

Good afternoon from SCW. 

What a weekend!!!

Connecticut is seeing one of the best weekends of the entire year, as August heat and humidity has been replaced with comfortable and sunny afternoons, beautiful sunsets, and cool nights. Low temperatures were in the 50s across the state last night! 

Today is another winner. We're seeing nice temperatures and low humidity along with partly sunny skies. Tonight should be another nice evening with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. It'll be a little warmer than last night, but still windows open weather. 

The week ahead looks mostly quiet and nice, but we will deal with a bout of warmer conditions tomorrow and a potentially active day on Tuesday. 

A spectacular look at conditions in New England on this Sunday thanks to GOES-E. 

Monday
Tomorrow looks fine, but we will see a noticeable increase in heat and humidity. There will be a low chance of rain showers, but most will remain dry. We will be watching a cold front begin to push toward the region along with a relatively potent area of low pressure from the Great Lakes region. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
Let's start with Tuesday. It looks wet, humid, and active. That area of low pressure is expected to reach the region on Tuesday, but there is still a significant amount of uncertainty regarding impacts. I think Tuesday has the potential to be a washout, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Rain is expected to be heavy at times, and there is a bit of a flash flooding and severe thunderstorm risk. A lot of this is dependent on the track and strength of the low, so stay tuned for updates early in the week. 

Wednesday looks better at this time in terms of lower rainfall potential, but we could be dealing with some leftover showers. Things will eventually clear out, however. Below are two depictions of what could happen Tuesday and into Wednesday. The first is the GFS, showing most of the heavy rain missing to the south. The second is the high resolution NAM, which depicts an axis of heavier rain right over the state. There's still quite a bit of uncertainty here. 

Thursday-Sunday
Can we get a repeat of the last two days? I'm not quite ready to go that far yet, but in the wake of the cold front and area of low pressure, the rest of the week and weekend look nice.

There have been some hints at showers on Thursday, but I am keeping odds of that very low for now. High pressure should build in, and we should see a return to lower temperatures and lower humidity. Things look partly to mostly sunny!

Above: European model depiction of 850mb temperatures. We see cooler temperatures aloft (but not as cool as this weekend) with building heat by the beginning of next week. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times with strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Wednesday: Early showers and clouds with gradual clearing. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 20% 

Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.  

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​