Good afternoon from SCW. 

What an August this has been. We started the month with heat and Tropical Storm Isaias, and will end the month with cleanup from Thursday's severe weather event and some hints of fall approaching. The big heat of the summer is slowly fading away, and as we head into the last week of a wild August, things looks mostly quiet, with a little unsettled weather during the middle of the week. 

Above: the temperature departure so far for the month of August. Just like July, it was a hot one. 

Sunday-Monday
Both today and Monday look fantastic. Temperatures and humidity levels will make it feel like early fall with with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Tonight, low temperatures will even reach the 50s for a lot of locations! No rain is expected. As you will see below, 850mb temperatures look great! That should translate to a nice and seasonable period. 

Tuesday-Friday
The remainder of the work week looks unsettled, but not a washout by any means. In fact, much of the guidance doesn't have much rain. That said, the chances are there, and I will be introducing some rain chances each day. The rain chances on Tuesday and early Wednesday are likely to come from a weak non-tropical low pressure system. The rain chances Thursday and early Friday look to come from an approaching cold front. 

Saturday-Sunday
Next weekend, Labor Day weekend, is currently looking beautiful. With the passage of the cold front at the end of the work week, high pressure looks to build in and we should see sunny and seasonable temperatures. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain showers, decreasing clouds late. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Chance of showers early with decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Watching the Tropics
Our record breaking hurricane season continues, as this last week saw two hurricanes and one hurricane, Laura, make landfall as one of the strongest in Louisiana history. There is no break in tracking either, as we head toward the climatological peak around September 10th. 

There are currently four areas of interest in the Atlantic, with one expected to develop right off the East Coast this week. If it becomes named, it will be called Nana. It is expected to remain offshore with minimal impact to the US. 

There are also some waves out in the Caribbean, central Atlantic, and eastern Atlantic. None are looking like a current threat to the region, but this far out, we'll be watching to see if that changes. 

It's early, but the guidance is showing a much more amplified pattern in the next 7-10 days in the US. that along with ridging offshore could create a favorable steering pattern for a close call along the US East Coast. Nothing to really think too much about at the moment, but that's a period I will be watching in case something is lurking. As I have reminded you throughout the hurricane season, stay on guard. Historically, there is about 70-75% of the season left on August 30th. 
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Thank you for reading. 
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-DB​ ​

Disc: The medium and long term sections of this discussion will likely be shorter than normal, as focus/attention is shifted to the very near term and one of the strongest severe weather threats you'll ever see in this part of the country.

So getting into the details... A Tornado Watch has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the NW Hills until 7 PM.  The entire state is in an enhanced risk for severe t-storms, and more watches are likely later, as this complex heads SE.  

There is a strong threat for wind, supported by winds aloft.  Many cells will contain svr winds.  Some may contain wind gusts up to 80 MPH!

The freezing level is not super high.  In addition, any cells will be capable of producing many updrafts.  This combo yields to widespread hail potential, w/some potential for vry lrg hail, i.e. 2"+ in diameter in the strongest cells.

And yes, with a warm frontal boundary stuck over SE CT and a cold front approaching from the NW, that combination is enough to produce rotation in the atmosphere and, as such, some of the stronger cells will be capable of producing tornadoes.  The map blw shows the first Tor watch of the day, but as I said, more could be needed later.

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This entire complex will push S or SE as the day wears on and should reach the coast by around 7 PM or so.  It appears that all is in place for svr storms to continue.  There is ample sfc heating and certainly ample instability aloft.   Watches will likely be expanded S later on, and either I or one of my cohorts will likely updt as much as we can as the situation evolves.

Now for the rest of the week into the weekend...
More rain and thunderstorms will be likely both Friday and Saturday.  Tomorrow's storms should be more of a diurnal/air mass type.  At this time, it appears the frontal zone will be too far S of the state to allow for widespread strong to svr storms here, and that should remain to our S and SW.  Hwvr, I do want to make two points abt that: First, this is not set in stone... the boundary could easily be further N than models currently have.  Secondly, in a warm, humid air mass, any storms can become strong to severe.

On Sat, we shift modes into more of an all-day kind of rain, as the frontal boundary combines with the remnants of Laura to give us potentially heavy rain.  There will still be imbedded thunderstorms, but as of right now, once again, it appears the main svr threat is to our S and/or SW.  Hwvr, that could also still change, so stay tuned for updates.

Very beautiful weather should move in for Sunday and Monday, as this frontal boundary finally sags S of the region.  By day, temperatures should not even reach 80 degrees.  In fact, the nights may even feel a bit cool in the NW hills!

Tuesday through possibly all the way until Thursday, more unsettled weather will move into the area.  Models are unclear on the exact evolution of this sys, but it appears something like a coastal, with all day rain, heavy at times, evolving into a diurnal t-storm, locally strong thing after warm frontal passage.  If that's the case, then these three days will start cool and gradually trend warmer and more humid.

There appears to be a stronger signal than normal for unsettled weather as we continue into the long range.  Frontal zones, as the first cool high pressure systems of fall fight with the offshore Bermuda Ridge, appear to stall near the area, which would result in storminess more days than not.  OF course, every day wl not be a washout.

Stay tuned for updates on watches and warnings as today evolves and stay safe!

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.

The strong to severe thunderstorms held north of Connecticut today, as we continued our stretch of hot weather. In fact, Hartford (Bradley Airport) is poised to break the record for most 90 degree highs in a summer this week. A strong cold front will pass through on Tuesday, and give Connecticut a much needed preview of fall. By the end of the week however, things are unsettled again, with more rain showers possible and possible remnant rain from Marco and Laura. The week ahead is looking active.

Monday/Tuesday
Tomorrow and Tuesday are looking like the last two hot days of this warm period. Highs inland will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with cooler temperatures at the shoreline. Each day, some showers and thunderstorms are possible, but Monday doesn't look to have too much activity.

Tuesday could be a severe weather day, as a strong cold front pushes through the region. Right now, the front looks to push through during the afternoon and early evening. Strong to severe storms are possible, but some of the guidance, as you will see below, keeps us mostly dry. Stay tuned. 

Wednesday-Friday
Wednesday is looking like the pick of the week. It will legitimately feel like fall with sunny skies, low humidity and highs in the low to mid 70s. It'll feel amazing! 

Thursday will still feel cool, but we will see increasing clouds and showers as a weak area of disturbed weather approaches the area. It doesn't look like a washout, and it is unrelated to the tropical systems in the Atlantic. 

Friday is looking unsettled as well right now. The remnants from the tropical systems are likely to get caught up in the upper level flow, and that means increasing clouds late in the day and some possible showers. It will also be a warmer day with highs in the 80s again. 

Saturday-Sunday
The remnants of the tropical systems may make it here as early as Saturday, but I caution that the track is still highly uncertain this far out. Right now, I am introducing chances of rain, which may be heavy. We are not expecting anything close to what we saw with Isaias, as this will be post-tropical by the time the moisture gets here. Worth keeping an eye on, but nothing to be particularly concerned about at the moment. Sunday should be beautiful as things clear out. 

Above, the GFS depiction of the end of the week. A lot can still change, so just stay tuned. Saturday could end up a lot drier. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a slight chance of showers/storms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and hot early, with a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of rain 50%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds and showers/storms late. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures. Highs upper 70s to low 80s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
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-DB​ 

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

What a refreshing day! It was a rainy and cool day that was more reminiscent of fall than late summer. The week ahead will not be as cool as today, but the week is looking much more comfortable than what we've seen for much of the summer, which is one of the warmest on record. 

Above is a summary of the precipitation departure from normal over the course of the first half of August. It does not include today's rain. As you can see, we're well below normal and you will see the rain swath from Tropical Storm Isaias. 

Monday-Tuesday
It looks like our chances for rain will be limited this week, keeping with the dry pattern that we've seen. The best chance of rain will come tomorrow night and early Tuesday, as a front passes through the region overnight Monday. Most of Monday looks nice.

​Some lingering showers may be around during the day on Tuesday, but I am not expecting much. Temperatures will rebound from today's cool highs, but will remain fairly comfortable, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Above is a depiction of the high resolution NAM. Note that it has the bulk of showers take place overnight. 

Wednesday-Friday
With the exception of the unsettled period highlighted above, things look quiet. The heat and humidity should be kept at bay, but by Friday we begin to warm up just a bit. Conditions should be sunny and nice. 

Saturday-Sunday
Currently, the weekend is looking quiet. It will likely be a bit warmer on Saturday, but another front is possible by Sunday. That may bring a period of showers in between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, but right now, I am keeping the threat of rain out of the forecast. 

Tracking Tropics
One other thing to mention is that the National Hurricane Center is tracking two areas of interest in the Atlantic. Both have 50% chances of development, though I personally think the odds are higher given the overall development environment. Neither are anything to worry about at the moment, but may be worth a casual eye in the long range. Of course, we'll be watching. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of rain late. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with showers. Decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.  

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.  

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Saturday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.  

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ 

Disc: I don't like to write off summer before August 15, and the way this summer has gone, there will probably be at least one more hot spell, but at least the real hot days will now not be the normal anymore, and rather will be the exception to the rule.

Modeling Note: I planned to do this discussion a bit late today to view all the models for the weekend's forecast to add clarity.  Unfortunately, after reviewing all the data, there isn't much more clarity than there was 12 hrs ago.  I will be using a blend of GFS/GGEM/ENS for this fcst and very little input from the ECMWF, which I'll explain blo.

Tonight: First ongoing issue is convection that has made it to the S coast.  Models have not handled this convection very well, w/nearly all of the globals not showing any measurable.  Yet, in reality, about half an inch of rain has fallen across much of the S coast.  Models are showing something of a resurgence in convection tonight, likely from what's ongoing across S/C NJ right now, but keep it S of the area.  However, given what has happened today, I am inclined to introduce a chance of showers and t-storms along the S coast only, probably most likely around midnight.  As for temps, because we are starting 5-10 degrees below model consensus, I'll go a couple degrees lower than guidance for lows tonight.  So xpct lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow: I hate showing this much lack of confidence in a day 1 forecast, but it is what it is.  NBM guidance is showing low POPs, but at the same time has decently-high QPF nearly all the way up to the S coast.  You don't normally see this on day 1, and it is indicative that the majority of the members have nothing, but a select few have very heavy precip.  As for a source for possible precip, one is not hard to find, between the stalled frontal boundary and a coastal low to our SE.  So yes, I can see where precip would come from.  The global models are generally dry, but the ECMWF does have a little precip on the S coast.  Globals were a fair bit too far S today.  Putting all of this into perspective, I'll go close to a consensus and keep the day largely dry, with just a slight chance for some rain along the S coast.  I'll also go close to guidance on temps, but this could be too warm if it indeed turns rainier than fcst, ala what happened today.  Highs shud genly be in the mid 80s.  It is not impossible for someone near KBDL in the valley to get a few deg warmer than that, but only in the Nrn 1/2 of the state, where there will likely be less cloud cover.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: This is, by far, the easiest part of the forecast.  No matter what happens with the two coastal lows, Sat should be a nice day in between systems.  The GFS tries to get some moisture in here ahead of the next coastal low by day's end, but since it tends to run 6 hrs too fast, we'll keep Sat dry.  Due to a gusty onshore breeze and increasing clouds, I'll go a few degs cooler than guidance.  Highs shud be close to 80, maybe staying in the 70s in Srn Middlesex/Srn New London Counties.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): The biggest concern in the long term is in the beginning of the long term period- on Sun.  The GFS and GGEM models indicate a coastal low coming far enough N to at least graze the S coast with steady light rain.  The ECMWF is about 20 hrs slower and about 500 miles SE of consensus.  The ECMWF was also much slower with Isaias.  W/Isaias it did get the track right, but that was a pretty steady pattern, where a little change in speed probably would not chg the track too much.  Sun's pattern is not steady.  Therefore, the ECMWF being much slower allows the high to build in ery and push the storm well S & E.  This is a known bias of the ECMWF, being too slow, lately that they are addressing acrs the pond in Greenwich (England, NOT CT!).  Then we have the NBM guidance, which actually agrees w/the ECMWF on timing, but has 0.5-1" QPF across the entire state, w/the highest down on the S coast! Therefore, w/all the issues and moving parts going on, I think the best way to attack this right now, is to go somewhere between the GFS and NBM on speed, and a bit N of global mdls (WAY N of ECMWF) on QPF and pcpn placement.  What this means for us is, showers or rain likely Sun aftn to Mon aftn S of I 84 and chc of rain or showers N of there.  I'll also go 3-5 deg blo guidance on temps both of those days, which makes sense given xpctd cloud cover, wind dir, and pcpn.  This yields highs only in the low 70s Sun and near 80 Mon.  If pcpn lingers longer Mon, temps could turn out even lower, esp in Srn Middlesex/Srn New London Counties, but I don't want to stray that much from gdnc yet, given lwr than avg confidence.

Tue and Wed should feature nice weather for the time of year.  GFS has dew points in the 40s all the way down to SNJ! So we're looking at highs of 80 to 85 Tue and maybe a degree or two cooler than that Wed.  Guidance is accepted w/no changes at all.  No reason to quibble over a degree or two!

The Bermuda heat ridge may begin to flex its muscles as we head deeper into the long term. Humidity increases on Thu.  I will keep Thu dry for now, but pcpn is knocking on the door by then, so we may need to add pcpn into the fcst at some point, esp for SW CT.  But for now, I took the exec decision to leave it out, since everything has trended slower this summer when the Bermuda Ridge has flexed its muscles.  

Looking into the long range, the Bermuda Ridge looks to return with more heat, humidity, and unsettled weather beginning Thu.  This probably lasts abt 4-7 days, thereafter, cooler Canadian High pressure may infiltrate the area again.  We're getting later in Aug now, this is when you usually start to see Canadian highs strengthen and the Bermuda high weaken.  Also, I wouldn't pay too much attn to Josephine right now, as it looks to be both vry weak and out to sea.  Hwvr, the tropics overall shud get more active by the end of the  month, and as long as a Bermuda ridge is still in place, they could be guided up the coast.  Just something to keep an eye on!

Now, let's take a look graphically at the two systems slated to influence our weather this weekend.  The first is tmrw's coastal low.  I xpct that one to largely remain S of the region, and maybe produce a vry brief rain shower along the S coast.

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And then for Sun's system, which I expect to be slower and perhaps a bit further north than this depiction shows.

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Anyway, that's all for now! See you all next week!

-GP!