Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

This is going to be a strongly worded discussion. After one of the wettest Augusts on record and a top 5 wettest summer, we are seeing the biggest signal yet for a widespread heavy rain event to impact Connecticut Wednesday and Thursday. 

In fact, as posted earlier on our Facebook page, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Day 2 High Risk of Excessive Rainfall for parts of Connecticut. It is not hyperbole to say that this is extraordinary. High risks for rainfall are confined to high end rainfall events, and are rarely issued this far in advance of an event, suggesting high confidence that a severe flash flooding event is likely to occur somewhere within that zone. 

Given the setup, we do not disagree with their assessment. 

Above: the WPC D2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. For areas in the High Risk, this means that there is a greater than 50% chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point. 

The Overall Setup
First things first. Forget about Henri. This is a much different setup and one that is less likely to underperform. Even tossing the computer models aside, the atmospheric setup is such that this individual event should be taken seriously. 

Not much has changed from the forecast on Sunday with regard to the setup. This is a situation where a combination of factors are likely to make this a high impact event. 

First, the remnants of Hurricane Ida continue to move toward the region around a ridge. As that happens, the remnants will merge with a trough diving in from the west. This will create what looks more like a nor'easter synoptically--something that is standard in the winter, and means widespread precipitation. 

What is not standard about this setup, however, is the tropical moisture that will be part of it, the very strong jet that will allow for exceptionally efficient forcing, and warm front that will be positioned in a way that will allow for even more frontogenesis, increasing rainfall potential. 

Here is the 18z GFS surface depiction of the progression of the event. All guidance depicts heavy rain for CT, on Thursday morning, even as the axis of the heaviest rainfall shifts north and south between model runs. 

The Forecast
We are anticipating a high impact event in Connecticut. This will be driven primarily by the amount of rain that falls and the rainfall rate we anticipate Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

Timing: Moderate Confidence 
We expect rain to begin tomorrow morning into afternoon, as the storm approaches. It won't be much early on, but expect some scattered showers increasing in coverage and intensity through the day. Plans do not need to be changed on Wednesday. However, heavy rain will move into the state overnight and continue into Thursday morning. The guidance has been moving faster, meaning that Thursday afternoon is looking ok at this point.

The worst period for rainfall will likely be Wednesday night after 9-10pm through Thursday morning between 5-7am. More adjustments are possible to this part of the forecast. 

Rainfall: High Confidence 
We are forecasting a broad 3-6 inches of rain for Connecticut. Higher amounts are possible depending on where the best "banding" sets up. Currently, we believe that will be in the high risk zone of southern Connecticut, but it is very important to recognize that any part of the state could see very high rainfall amounts. Everyone needs to pay attention to this. 

Below is a model we usually use during the winter, the HREF. This is a combination of high resolution guidance and generally gives an excellent projection of what can be expected in some rain or snow events. It is squarely within our forecast range, which I have to emphasize is very significant. We do not see 1-2" rainfall events very often, let alone 3-6" events. This is uncommon to say the least. 

This range is further backed up by both GFS and European Model ensemble guidance.

Rainfall Rate: High Confidence
As important as the rainfall total, the rainfall rate gives us a sense of whether flash flooding is possible. An inch of rain over the course of a day is far easier to deal with than an inch of rain in an hour. 

Here is where this summer's rainfall comes into play. We've seen a lot of rain, which has saturated water tables and increased local stream flows. In fact, according to the Boston NWS discussion, streamflows across CT, RI, and MA are all much above normal, greater than 90%. This means that there is not nearly as much capacity for normal storm flow zones to handle a lot of rain quickly. 

​Unfortunately, that's what is coming. Rather than a two day event, the bulk of the rain is likely to fall in a relatively short period of time. This part of the forecast is tricky, because the best rainfall rates are likely to be along a warm front that is forecasted to be nearby during this period. We could easily see 1-2 inch an hour rates near that front. 

Even if we don't see the most prolific rainfall rates, we're still talking about weeks worth of rain in less than a day. That's not good given all the rain we've already seen. 

Significant basement and flash flooding is likely, and severe flash flooding is possible in areas where the rain just won't slow down. 

Above: the HRRR (a high resolution model) depicting extremely heavy rain near the warm front. The result is a very high amount of rain to say the least, especially in southern CT.

Wind: Moderate Confidence
Originally, it looked like wind would be an afterthought, but not so much now. With a strong jet and a low of decent intensity, the guidance has all added a signal for some gusty to briefly strong winds early Thursday morning. This is something we'll continue to watch, but for now we think the following will be the peak wind gusts:

Inland areas: max gusts of 20-40 mph

Shoreline areas: max gusts of 40-50 mph

Given the amount of rain we expect, that could cause some issues, but again, rain is the headline here. The highest gusts are more isolated in this forecast. This could lead to some scattered power outages as it stands. 

Severe Weather: High Confidence
We think that there is a low chance of severe weather. For most of CT, it will be a cool rain reminiscent of a late fall nor'easter, but for the southern parts of CT, where the warm front is likely to be nearby, the combination of a strong low level jet and the front will create an opportunity for some storms that are capable of producing an isolated tornado. If the front is further south this doesn't happen, but it is something to keep an eye on in CT as we watch where the front goes on Thursday. 

​Overall Impact
We have high confidence that a significant flash flooding event is likely late Wednesday into early Thursday. There could be significant delays or cancellations in parts of the state due to whatever falls overnight. We think that significant to major river and stream flooding is possible. 

This is likely to be a high impact event given the amount of rain expected, the rainfall rate early Thursday, and the rain we've received this summer, making it one of the wettest on record. We are less certain about wind, but there could be some impacts if the wind forecast trends stronger. 

Stay tuned to the forecast and if you see flooded roads, please turn around. High risk days for rainfall tend to be dangerous and costly in both property and lives. Take this rain event seriously. 

We'll be here with updates as we get closer to the event. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

It's hard to believe, but we are reaching the end of meteorological summer, which lasts from June through August. This week will see a transition to fall, as we see warmth to end August, cooler temperatures by Labor Day Weekend, and another chance for heavy rain as we track the remnants of powerful Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in Louisiana earlier today with 150 mph winds. There's a lot to discuss! Let's dive in. 

Above: the GFS Ensemble forecast for accumulated rain over the course of the week. You can see pretty easily how much the remnants of Ida will impact precipitation over the eastern US. Right now, CT is just on the edge of seeing another significant rain event but as it stands we're in for another wet week. 

Monday
Tomorrow looks unsettled, but the chances of rain are a bit more limited, like what we saw on Saturday. Although the day isn't looking like a washout, a warm front will be pushing through the state and bring heat and humidity. In fact, we are likely to see oppressive heat and warmer than normal temperatures for this time of year, with heat indices likely in the 90s. 

While the guidance is not bullish on our rain chances, it looks like it will be a fairly decent CAPE (instability) day. That will open the door to thunderstorm chances in the afternoon, but it looks like there will not be enough shear to organize storms much. As a result, what pops up will probably be a heavy rain maker and may have gusty winds, but we are unlikely to see widespread or even scattered severe thunderstorms. Still, it's something we'll be paying attention to. 

Above: the latest high resolution NAM showing...not a whole lot between noon and midnight tomorrow. It might be underselling this however, so we will have some decent odds for rain and thunderstorms tomorrow. 

Tuesday
The last day of meteorological summer looks warmer than normal as well with highs in the 80s, but we should see a little less humidity. High pressure will be in place but this will be brief. Generally, it will be a nice day with a some breaks in the clouds.

Wednesday-Thursday
I'm declaring this a SCW Period of Interest. During this period, we are most likely to be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Ida. This has been quite an active year for CT with regard to tropical impacts and remnant impacts, as we've seen Tropical Storm Elsa, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, Tropical Storm Henri, and now the remnants of Hurricane Ida. The prior systems have left us waterlogged, and the overall setup for Ida's rain looks robust for heavy rain. 

Above is the 18z GFS depiction of the next few days, covering Wednesday and Thursday. This is a surface depiction, so many of you won't see the other features at play, but here's the breakdown:

Ida continues moving through Louisiana and the south over the next few days, weakening to a remnant (post-tropical) low pressure system. Recall what I said during Henri--that rain from a tropical system winds down much slower than wind. 

As the remnants of Ida move northeast around a large ridge, it interacts or merges with a trough coming through the midwest. What this essentially means is that the remnants of Ida get a bit of a "charge". This is aided by the presence of a frontal boundary across our region as the system approaches on Wednesday/Thursday.

This is the kind of setup that can bring a lot of rainfall. The position of the boundary and track will be critical to the rainfall potential and what eventually falls. We will be watching closely as flash flooding will be possible. 

For now, with the uncertainty on the heaviest rain axis, we are going to go with a general 1-3" of rain on Wednesday/Thursday, with the heaviest rain falling late Wednesday into early Thursday, but some signals and the official WPC forecast is higher.

We will be updating this forecast as we gather more information. We are not expecting significant wind at this time, but we will be watching the strength of the low. The European Model really tries to amp up the Ghost of Ida as it gets close to New England, so we will need to watch trends as Ida and the trough get closer to interacting. 

Below: the 18z Euro out to hour 90, with a fairly strong low bringing heavy rain to CT on Thursday. 

Labor Day Weekend (Friday-Sunday) 
Like many tropical systems, we clear out after Ida's remnants pass through the region. It will feel like fall! High pressure will take over and we expect near to below normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s, low humidity, and sunny skies. It's a little outside of the forecast period, but we will be watching a little area of low pressure approach from the Midwest. For now, no serious concerns about anything close to the cold washouts we had Memorial Day...or Independence Day...weekend. Happy Fall! 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 70%. 

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 70s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Now that things are a little less hectic, it is time for us to review our final call forecast of Tropical Storm Henri. Henri was a hurricane but weakened to a tropical storm before landfall with estimated maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

While the subjective impact in Connecticut was less than expected, we deal in data. How well did we actually do?

​Let's take a look. 

Above: the track of Henri, which briefly became a hurricane in the day before final landfall, using "best track" data. The final official track will be issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in a final tropical cyclone report. 

Timing
We expected the first rain to reach the coast between 3-5am and that was spot on. It was a close call as we saw a quasi-PRE just south of the state that brought extremely heavy rain to the NYC and NJ area. We expected tropical storm conditions to begin along the coast by 8am and that was a bit late--though wind was never really high end in this storm. The progression of the storm was accurate, but at the time of the forecast we were unsure about Monday. Overall, a good forecast. 

Grade: B+

Landfall Location & Intensity
Despite all of the guidance seemingly shifting east at the last minute, we were unmoved in keeping the landfall zone between New Haven and Westerly, RI. In the end, that was a great call, with Henri making landfall right at the eastern edge of our zone, as we stated in our final call. 

That said, intensity was a miss. To be clear, it's not like it was a big miss, as we anticipated a 70 mph landfall and got 60 mph, but we should have accounted for additional weakening causing a general lack of wind across more of CT. While the wind did occur in parts of CT, it was not nearly as strong or widespread.

Averaging out the A for the landfall location and C for intensity, we end up with a B for this category. 

Grade: B

Wind
The less intense winds were good for the state, but bad for the forecast. Here's what we forecasted:

"We think that the eastward shift in track has reduced the wind potential slightly, but it won't really make much difference in the scheme of things. We expect the following during the worst part of the storm: 

• Coastal areas: Sustained winds of 40-55 mph with gusts between 60-70 mph. Some isolated areas in SE CT may see higher gusts. Winds will be stronger the closer you are to the center, meaning the stronger winds will likely be east of New Haven and strongest in New London County. 
  
  
• Inland areas: Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts between 45-55 mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near the center of the system."   

According to the Public Information Statement issued by the NWS on August 22, BDL recorded a gust to 44 mph, HFD recorded a gust to 43 mph, and Willimantic recorded a gust to 40 mph. That was short of our forecast range, but not terribly off. Note that these areas were closest to the center at one point. 

Along the coast, it was ugly. According to the Public Information Statement issued by the NYC NWS on August 22, Middletown recorded a gust of 47 mph, Groton got to 53 mph, but everything was 40 mph or lower. That's a terrible bust on our part. 

While we did specifically state that weakening would be taking place at landfall, and that being closer to the storm would increase the threat of damaging winds--exactly what happened in eastern and SE CT--that doesn't really help the grade.

Grade: D

Coastal Hazards
Data on the amount of surge and coastal erosion is hard to come by, but overall it looked like the coastal hazards were not as high impact as anticipated. That's likely due to the weakening that took place and more importantly, the intensification that never reached high end levels in the hours before landfall, which would have pushed more water into the Sound.

​That said, coastal hazards from landfalling tropical systems are one of the biggest threats we have in CT, and we would not have changed the forecast even with the benefit of hindsight. 

Grade: C

Severe Weather
Not much to be said here. This was an accurate forecast. The potential was isolated to eastern CT and while we did not see tornadoes, we saw three confirmed just to the NE of CT.  

Grade: A-

Rainfall
We warned followers that this would be a long duration rain event, and it was, lasting Sunday and Monday. We were a little too aggressive with our western zone rain forecast, but overall the 2-5 inch rain zone in eastern CT worked perfectly and the 5-10 inch zone worked in central CT, albeit on the lower end.

There was major flash flooding in spots, with major highways like I-91 and Rt. 2 closed for a period due to flooding. In my town of East Hartford, the Hockanum River saw a top 5 (preliminary) flooding event. Even so, we dodged a bullet for the widespread kind of flooding we thought was possible. 

Grade: A-

Observed storm total rainfall image courtesy of the National Weather Service (Boston). 

Power Outages
We said power outages would be high to extreme impact and they weren't. Once again good for the state and terrible for the forecast. Winds did not verify, especially in coastal sections of CT, and that kept outages below even 50,000. Big bust. Lowest grade of the forecast. 

Grade: F

Overall Impact
We thought this would be a high impact event statewide and that wasn't the case. It was not on par with the big events we've seen recently, though we did have significant flooding take place in multiple parts of the state which helps the grade.

Although it was good that the impact was much lower overall, it only raises the chance that people are complacent in advance of the next big storm. I continue to believe that a bona fide hurricane making landfall in Connecticut would be catastrophic in Connecticut given our infrastructure and tree density.

It has been 30 years since Hurricane Bob made landfall to our east and 36 years since our last direct hurricane strike, Gloria. Our last major hurricane strike was the Great Hurricane of 1938, or the Long Island Express. Statistically, we are overdue for a hurricane strike and long overdue for a major hurricane impact. 

Grade: C-

Final Grade
Let's recap the grades that make up our final grade. Each are weighed equally. 

Timing: B+
Landfall Location & Intensity: B
Wind: D
Coastal Hazards: C
Severe Weather: A-
Rainfall: A-
Power Outages: F
Overall Impact: C-

This leads to our final grade, a decent but disappointing C+.

For this forecaster, who has closely studied and tracked tropical weather for more than 20 years, it is extremely disappointing personally to miss on the forecast, especially the wind and power outage aspects of the storm.

That said, I know that tropical meteorology is one of the hardest forecasting areas in the entire field, and a landfall on the other end of our zone, New Haven, would have produced vastly different results even at a landfall of 60 mph. These forecasts are always close, and that's why we work so hard to provide you with the latest information and hype-free analysis that is always backed up by data. 

We will continue providing the highest quality service we can, no matter how much nature complies. Grading ourselves after major events to hold ourselves accountable and learn from our mistakes is one way we do that. 
​
A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading and trusting SCW. 
​
-DB

Disc: The heat ridge holds on for one more day, then crumbles, which is not uncommon for this time of year.


Currently: High pressure stretches from the Appalachians to the Bermuda High.  This was producing the hot, humid weather over the area.  Our cold front that will end this is up near Toronto.

Tonight: Although most of the night will be dry, I could see a storm late at night as a little backdoor boundary bubbles across the state.  I have inserted low chance to slight chance POPs across the area w/this feature.  Although most of the state will stay dry, any storms that do develop could produce heavy rain, due to the moist air mass, and will not move much, due to weak steering currents.  For temps, I went just a bit below guidance, due to the combo of radiational cooling and perhaps evaporational cooling in areas that get rain.   Even so, it's a very warm and muggy night, w/lows only near 70.

Tomorrow: I feel the SPC is underdoing the storm threat.  Models have moved up the timing, which means storms could now initiate during the day, which will give the storms more heat to work with.  In addition, we'll have very high humidity, contributing to very high CAPE levels.  Generally, in the Eastern CONUS, when we have a high CAPE day, we do much better than expected w/severe wx.  The key will be how early storms can initiate.  If we see storms over CT or to our west in NY state headed this way by 2-4 PM, at least parts of the state should do well.  I have inserted likely POPS into the fcst for this timeframe.  Now for temps, I went pretty close to guidance, as I think we'll have ample time to bake before the storms arrive.  Highs should be in the upper 80s.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: I have likely POPs running thru the night and then taper off to high-end chance POPs thru this period.  A line of showers and storms will be ongoing across the state for the first part of the night.  After that, it really depends on where the front stalls.  Models are not in much agreement as to whether the front stalls near the area or down near the Delmarva, which would have a large impact on pcpn amounts in the area.  So for now I have compromised, gradually tapering POPs down to very low by late Sat afternoon.  At any rate, it seems prudent to go well below guidance for Sat's temps, as the combo of CAA and pcpn/clouds should keep temps down.  Look for steady-state temps only near 70 degrees.

Long Term The main concern in the long-term period is a frontal system and associated coastal low potential right around the middle of the week.

For Sunday, I think we'll probably have a dry day.  I do believe the front probably sags S enough to clear us out, at least of moisture.  However, clouds should still dominate along w/onshore flow, so temps will not warm much.  Guidance doesn't seem to be capturing this too well, so I went way below and have mid to upper 70s for temps.  There is a slight chance the front hangs further N.  If this happens, then pcpn will need to be added for this period.  However, it is my belief at this time that pcpn chances are too low to mention in the fcst.

For Monday, the front returns N as a warm front.  Heat and humidity return, but it won't be as bad as today.  Guidance does not look too bad, but it usually tends to blast warm fronts thru faster than reality, so I went just a smidge under guidance.  Highs generally in the low 80s.  Scattered to numerous t-storms too, with the fropa in the afternoon.  CAPE is fairly good, so strong storms are not out of the question.

For Tuesday, relatively warm and humid air remains in place.  I am not sure if we get quite as warm as guidance.  This will depend on wind direction.  There could definitely be some onshore flow.  So I went a touch below for now.  Highs near 80 degrees, maybe 80-85 along the I 91 corridor.  I kept it dry as there really is no trigger for storms on Tue.

For Wednesday, a cold front goes through during the morn.  I only have widely scattered t-storms w/that feature, as timing is bad.  However, many models are now showing the front stalling and a coastal low of sorts forming on it.  This would mean chilly wx, as we'd be on the cold side of the front, and rain, heavy at times, w/even a gusty wind.  I am not ready to bite wholeheartedly into this scenario yet, since it's a long way out.  But it's not hard to imagine, as a front stalls into the Bermuda Ridge and baroclinicity builds between the two features.  I have gone w/likely POPS everywhere on Wed.  Because even if no coastal low develops, that would probably be from the front stalling over the area.  That scenario would result in stronger t-storms and warmer temps, but either way, we'd rain.  I am not mentioning any winds or coastal effects yet, being so far out.  I have gone way below temp guidance, trying to keep w/the theme of a rainy day and take the course of least regret.  So highs near 70 degrees and rain.  I have included a chance of imbedded t-storms.  This is also the course of least regret, depending on where the front goes.

For Thu, likely POPs thru the morn, tapering to low-end chance as the day wears on.  Whatever system is affecting the region should slowly pull out.  Guidance temps are not happening unless a significant change in the hemispheric pattern occurs, so only upper 60s for highs!

If long range guidance is correct, we could be looking at a cool, to perhaps even significantly cooler than normal Sept, but we'll see on that!

Now, let's look at a couple of graphics concerning the upcoming week's weather.  This map is for late Fri afternoon.  Verbatim, the areas on this map are receiving the stronger t-storms.  According to this model, it stays west of the state.  It's going to be close, depending on when/where initiation occurs.

​

The next map, valid early Thu morning, shows our potential overrunning/coastal low.  If this were to pan out, we could be looking at our first "winterlike" system, and yes, that is snow over parts of Central Canada!

​

Otherwise, that's all for now! I think this was quite enough! See you again next week!

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

This is our final call forecast for Hurricane Henri, which is quickly moving toward the state. We've discussed the overall setup in the past few posts, so this one will focus only on timing and impacts. 

Above: the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track for Henri. The hurricane is expected to make landfall tomorrow afternoon and take a north-northwest heading into Connecticut, bringing a variety of different hazards to the state. 

Below: Hurricane Henri coming into focus on radar. Note the rain over NYC. That is part of an inverted trough and looks more like a quasi-predecessor rain event (PRE). Interesting meteorology at play this evening. The rain is expected to stay away for the most part. 

Timing
We expect rain to begin along the coastline between 3-5am. Although it may be raining we do not anticipate tropical storm conditions (winds 39 mph or above) to begin in Connecticut until approximately 8am. This means that travel will be less than ideal, but possible. Conditions will quickly deteriorate however as the rain moves from south to north.

Because this is a tropical system, you should not expect it to rain or rain heavily all the time. Rain will likely come in bands, which will also bring strong wind gusts with them.

These bands will rotate into the state over the course of the morning, and by noon conditions will have deteriorated across the state. Rain will be extremely heavy at times during the day and evening, and winds will pick up as the center of Henri gets closer to your location. 

The worst of the wind will be late tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening. The winds will diminish late tomorrow night but the rain will continue in bands into at least Monday morning. Some guidance keeps the rain in our state through the day Monday.

​The storm is likely completely gone by Tuesday morning, though this is a less confident part of the forecast due to the wide variations we see in later track guidance. This will likely need to be adjusted as we monitor the progress of the storm. 

The Forecast

Landfall Location & Intensity
Last night we narrowed down what we believe to be the landfall zone (where the center crosses), and that zone was between New Haven, CT and Westerly, RI. Since yesterday we have seen some shifts east by the guidance, but this isn't a shift out to sea or toward less impact, as some on our Facebook page have wondered.

Often, landfall locations can shift as the center of a system wobbles close to shore or the steering current is a little stronger or weaker than anticipated. Here, although we've seen some eastward shifts in the guidance, we do not believe it is enough to shift our landfall zone. As a result, we think a landfall will occur between New Haven and Westerly, and for that landfall to be near the RI/CT border. 

What does this mean? It reduces the wind threat in western Connecticut a bit, but increases the flooding hazard for both western and central Connecticut. This is because, as you will see below, the guidance is fairly consistent in showing Henri bisecting the state from a southeast to northwest heading. 
​
The GFS run below illustrates this track well enough, though we think the landfall location will likely be a touch further west.

Because of the slow motion over colder waters tomorrow and interaction with Long Island, we now expect the intensity of Henri to be 70mph at landfall.

We think it could reasonably be between 65 mph and 80 mph at landfall. At 75 mph, Henri would be the first New England hurricane since 1991 (Bob) and first CT hurricane landfall since Gloria in 1985.

​It may be a very close call, but it will have no impact on overall conditions. ​

Wind: High Impact
We think that the eastward shift in track has reduced the wind potential slightly, but it won't really make much difference in the scheme of things. We expect the following during the worst part of the storm: 

• Coastal areas: Sustained winds of 40-55 mph with gusts between 60-70 mph. Some isolated areas in SE CT may see higher gusts. Winds will be stronger the closer you are to the center, meaning the stronger winds will likely be east of New Haven and strongest in New London County. 
  
  
• Inland areas: Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts between 45-55 mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near the center of the system.   

Unlike other tropical systems in New England, the wind field will not be as large and it will not be as strong as Henri is expected to be weakening on final approach and will not have a robust extratropical transition which usually expands the wind field. The closer you are to the center the more likely you see damaging wind, especially along the shoreline. 

Coastal Hazards: High Impact
We expect high impact storm surge and beach erosion. The NHC has upped its surge potential to 3-5 feet of surge, and we agree. The push north by Henri will push water into Long Island Sound, bringing significant flooding in a number of locations. In fact, some evacuations began in anticipation of this. Again, we do not expect the kind of surge we saw in Sandy, as Sandy was a stronger and much larger storm that was able to push incredible amounts of water onshore, but it will be very bad in some locations. 

We still expect the combination of wind, rain, waves, and surge to cause major beach erosion. Be aware if you are along the immediate shoreline. Below is the NHC peak surge forecast.

​Note that not every inch of coastline will see this kind of water rise, but the surge potential is serious. 

Severe Weather: Low Impact
As mentioned last night, the eastern side of a tropical system tends to see severe weather in the form of tornadoes. These generally are quick and relatively weak spin ups. This is something we will be watching on the eastern side of the system depending on where it makes landfall. We do not expect severe weather for most of the state. But there is a low tornado threat in eastern CT depending on landfall location. 

Rainfall: High to Extreme Impact
Rain is the story of this storm and we have high concern for major flooding in parts of Connecticut.

This will be a slow moving tropical storm or hurricane and the center will cross the state. That means that central and western CT in particular needs to watch out as we see banding set up tomorrow. Flood watches are up for the entire state. 

We are editing our rainfall forecast to be a bit more specific. In eastern CT (Windham, New London counties) we expect a general 2-5 inches of rain. In central and western CT, we expect a general 5-10 inches of rain with some isolated higher amounts.

Particularly concerning would be a Euro like track, which brings the storm across CT on Sunday, and then slowly brings it back east just north of CT on Monday dropping additional heavy rain. Places in this 5-10 zone will come in lower depending on the exact track and banding of Henri, but it is important for each community in this zone to be prepared for flooding rains. 

Central CT in particular should watch out as we just had a flash flooding event. 

Flash flooding on the order of what could happen is a bona fide life threatening event, especially if you are on the roads and driving through flooded roads. we cannot emphasize enough that if you encounter flooded roads do not drive through them. River flooding will need to be watched as well.  

A moderate risk for flash flooding remains in place from the WPC. 

Power Outages: High to Extreme Impact
We expect widespread and long duration power outages. The outages will be more likely in central and eastern CT, but expect outages wherever you are. Even with the reduced wind potential, the combination of wind, significant rain, and the long duration nature of the storm will take down numerous trees and power lines. 

Overall Impact: High
We already know that there will be folks that are spared by the storm and will call bust. Congrats in advance to them. But for a substantial part of Connecticut, the combination of wind, rain, coastal impacts, and power outages means that this will be a major weather event. A storm need not be the Great 1938 Hurricane to have a major impact. 

Once again, the impacts will vary depending on location and track (wind at the shore, rain in central and western CT) but this looks to be on par with some of the high impact events we've seen in the past. 
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​SCW will be providing constant updates as we receive additional information. As we track this system, please understand that we will be much slower to respond than usual. 

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Thank you for reading. 
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-SCW Team (written by DB​)