Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

After another warm and dry weekend, we finally have what looks like a meaningful chance of rainfall. After that, we go back to warm to hot conditions, but as I said a few weeks ago, the worst of the heat looks to be over. Let's dive in. 

Above: the SPC HREF mean for the next two days. I think this may be a little overdone, but this is probably the best setup for decent rainfall we've seen all summer. 

Monday-Tuesday
This is the time frame where rain is likely. It won't rain all the time, but we will see periods of widespread showers and heavier rainfall tomorrow and again on Tuesday.

What's the reason I am finally feeling better about rain chances? We will have a warm front cross into the region tonight that will become a focal point as a weak area of low pressure develop and crosses the boundary. This kind of setup tends to wring out moisture from the atmosphere. Monday and Tuesday will be cloudy and cooler than normal with the rain, but it'll also feel humid as we will have a significant amount of moisture in the air. 

What can go wrong? While I do think we all see decent rains, we're looking at rainfall that may be more convective in nature, which means scattered and location dependent. There will be a chance of thunderstorms, but nothing severe.

Overall however, I think it's wise to expect a widespread .50" to 1 inch of rain, with the potential for a widespread 1-2 inches over the two days if everything breaks right. It won't end the drought, but it will be a big help as we head into September. 

Above: 18z GFS depicting the multiple bouts of rain. It also has a period of heavy rain tomorrow afternoon. That would certainly be welcomed. 

Below: the 12z Euro depicting something similar. The warm front serves as the focal point for low pressure and a nice rainfall. 

Wednesday-Friday
In the wake of the boundary and low, we warm up quite a bit. It'll be sunny, warm, with some humidity. It won't be oppressive however and should be manageable. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with some hot spots possibly touching 90. 

Saturday-Sunday
At this time, the last weekend of August is looking sunny and warm, but we'll be watching whether we have a front pass through or a coastal low develop to our south, which could bring some clouds. 

​The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 70%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

SCW Tropical Update

The tropics have been unusually quiet, but we're now entering the climatological peak of the season. There is one area to causally watch way out in the Atlantic, but it may be the one after this (not pictured) that could be our first long track system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

For now, there is no threat to CT or the US, but the overall upper level pattern looks like we will need to watch for potential threats in early September.

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Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather.

Extreme drought has arrived in CT according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

​While the "extreme drought" area is relatively small, we saw a big jump--more than double the coverage--for "severe drought". Now, more than 75% of the state is designated to be in a severe or extreme drought, the most since 2017. 

Above: the current Drought Monitor designation. 

To be clear, this isn't unprecedented. In fact, our last extreme drought came in 2020. But the fact that we've seen three of these since 2016 is concerning.

This is our most expansive and severe drought since the long-duration 2016-17 drought.

Below are the peak drought images we were able to pull from the U.S. Drought Monitor from our past droughts. 

2020 Drought

The summer/fall drought in 2020 was relatively short duration (early August - early November), but as you can see, at one point nearly 40% of the state was in extreme drought while other parts were just abnormally dry. 

2016-17 Drought

The 2016-17 drought was long, extreme, and likely our worst drought in the past 20 years. All of the state began as abnormally dry in June 2016. Things peaked in extreme drought for just under 45% of the state (the most since the start of the Drought Monitor) in November 2016. The entire state returned to normal in June 2017. 

2001-2002 Drought

The 2002 drought is noteworthy because of the widespread severity of it. This is the only time 100% of the state had a severe drought or greater since the start of the monitor in 2000. Abnormally dry conditions for the entire state began in October 2001. The peak of the drought came in April 2002, where SW CT experienced extreme drought. The entire state returned to normal in November 2002. 

Today's Drought

Above: percent of normal precipitation in the last 90 days. Image courtesy of the National Regional Climate Centers. 

So where do we really stand? Is this normal? Just summer being summer?

Well, as you can see, this isn't summer being summer. This is an anomalously dry pattern. 

There are a few different ways to look at drought, but one key takeaway is that it's relative. An extreme drought here, where wells are stressed and there are significant water restrictions, is not the same as an extreme drought in a place like California, where an extreme drought can mean total crop loss, massive wildfires, and public drinking water supplies threatened. 

That said, we don't need to be California to be bad. Relative to our climate, which tends to be temperate, this is a bad drought. 

Another critical measure of drought includes looking at soil moisture vs water levels. This is an important distinction, because while soil can recover fairly quickly, water levels indicate a much deeper drought which requires a longer dry period and longer wet period for complete recovery. 

The Palmer Hydrological Drought Index shows this well. Although this is a severe to extreme drought based mostly on soil impacts and lack of precipitation, it's still relatively moderate with regard to reservoir levels, the water table, and to a lesser extent, groundwater. Meanwhile in the west, it's downright ugly. We don't ever want to see that here. 

Although many of the public reservoirs remain solid, this drought is having an impact. Aside from struggling gardens and wells, dead lawns, and a fall foliage season that is likely to struggle, the drought has had a real impact on farmers across the state, many of whom rely on the rains for grazing grass, hay production, and harvests that put food on our tables.

While we've seen worse droughts--the 1960s are the benchmark when it comes to drought in the northeast--this one is certainly bad, and it's likely to get worse. 

Drought Outlook

While the guidance tries to bring more rainfall in the coming weeks, we've seen this before and it hasn't turned out well. What we need to begin reversing the trend is a wholesale pattern change that brings frequent light to moderate rain events that are allowed to soak into the ground. The most recent Climate Prediction Center forecast predicts that the drought is likely to remain with us for an extended period. If it remains the severity will likely expand as well. How much remains to be seen. 

The story of the summer has unfortunately become the drought, and as we begin turning the page toward fall, that is likely to continue. Absent a pattern change that moves us closer to coastal low season, what we're likely to need is a tropical connection. 

As we approach the peak of what is a currently quiet hurricane season, we will see if things turn around as they did last summer, from tropical remnants or direct impacts...    ​​​

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.

It was a beautiful weekend with sunny skies, nice temperatures, and low humidity. I hope you were able to enjoy it!

Unfortunately, the down side is that dry conditions continue, and as I low key expected, the rain "threat" for early week has mostly vanished. The weekly drought monitor update puts more of CT into the moderate and severe drought category. Not too far over the border, parts of RI and MA are now in the extreme drought category. 

Above: NRCC Northeast precipitation map plotting the general departure from normal rainfall over the last 90 days. It may not be long until parts of CT are in the extreme drought category if this keeps up. 

Monday-Tuesday
For the start of the week, we see temperatures rebound a bit with nice conditions continuing. Humidity will remain low. By late Tuesday, we should be watching a developing low off the coast. Highs are seasonable, with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, maybe mid 80s in our typical warm spots. 

Wednesday-Thursday
While I wish this section of the discussion were devoted to a strong coastal low slingshotting itself into the region, bringing us multiple days of rain, it's not. Maybe it's an example of dry begets dry, but it looks like the coastal low will develop far enough out to sea that we see very little, if any, rainfall. Models have been all over the place the last day or so with the low, so I suppose there's still hope, but we need some help to make it happen. Overall, the low does bring in a cooler flow especially on Wednesday. It'll feel like fall with highs in the 70s Wednesday and gradually rebounding on Thursday. 

Above: the GFS (left) and Euro (right) showing a wide right miss by a weak coastal storm. We may see showers, but nothing particularly meaningful. 

Friday-Sunday
In the wake of the storm we start to warm up again, though we're not talking about heat wave heat here. We should see high pressure build in and with it, some southwesterly flow. That would likely mean humidity creeping up a bit and higher temperatures. Rainfall chances? Not particularly high. 

Overall, boring with a worsening drought likely. The pattern preventing rain has just been stuck, much like the tropics, which seem to be stuck in neutral at the moment. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and nice. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds late. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain late 20%. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny with cool and breezy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny, warmer, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB