Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

The past week has brought us our first real taste of fall, and with the pattern being reinforced, it looks as if summer is in retreat as we approach the start of Meteorological Fall on September 1st. The week ahead looks sunny, mostly dry, and seasonable, as our step down toward fall accelerates. Let's dive in.  

Above: the latest European Ensemble showing surface temperature anomalies in the week ahead. Although the coldest temperatures relative to normal will be in the Midwest, our are will be near normal, if not slightly below normal. Every week we have seasonable temperatures is another week that 90+ temperatures are harder to achieve. 

Monday
Today brings a slight chance of rain as a developing non-tropical low moves to our east and a cold front moves in from the west. This will bring the chance of some showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but I do not expect anything severe and most are likely to stay dry. Temperatures will be in the 80s with some modest humidity in advance of the front. It may be cloudy early, but I don't expect overcast all day. 

Above: the 00z high resolution NAM depicting tomorrow precipitation chances. I don't expect widespread rain and storms. 

Tuesday-Thursday
It's an easy forecast as the pattern becomes reinforced. Whatever modest humidity there was gets swept away by the cold front, and with high pressure taking over expect dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures. Highs will land in the 70s with lows in the 50s at least inland. This is windows open weather!

Labor Day Weekend
It's hard to believe that Labor Day Weekend is right around the corner! Friday brings our next meaningful chance of rain, with another front poised to enter the region. We'll see if the timing changes any, but as it stands Friday should have some shower chances. Again, I'm not expecting any severe weather, and we've reached a point in the year where severe storms are not climatologically likely. Another sign that fall is in sight.

In the wake of the front, the rest of the weekend is looking excellent with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and sunny skies. 

Above: A GFS depiction of the front passing through the region Friday. Nothing special. 

The Dailies
Monday: Decreasing clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Friday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Labor Day: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.  

Finally, not much to mention in the tropics. That wave that we were watching became Tropical Storm Fernand, but Erin helped weaken the Atlantic ridge and that has carried the system well out to sea. The coming week looks quiet in the Atlantic. 
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​-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

After a quiet week we had a pretty quiet weekend. Tonight however we have some thunderstorms in eastern Connecticut. There is no severe threat. 

Today was the last hot day we will see in a while. A strong cold front will usher in a new pattern, and this coming trough will be at least partially responsible fore recurving Major Hurricane Erin away from the U.S. coast long before it has a chance to make landfall. That said, there will still be some coastal impacts. 

The week ahead looks pretty quiet, but I am casually watching another tropical wave in the Atlantic that has a possible setup that makes me perk up. Let's dive in. 

Above: the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for CT. With a dry July, we're now seeing abnormally dry conditions show up in southern CT. Much of the state has been dry through August, however. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week brings a taste of fall. After the front passes tonight we will see a break in the warmth and humidity in a big way. Tomorrow will start out cloudy and breezy, but both the clouds and wind will diminish as high pressure builds in. Highs will be in the 70s tomorrow! Those are September high temperatures, and just as impressive, lows Monday night should be in the low 50s for many inland locations and even a bit lower in our normal cold spots. 

With high pressure in charge Tuesday, it'll be a nice sunny day with most spots struggling in the upper 70s. 

Wednesday-Friday
This period brings the closest approach by Erin, which will be a massive storm geographically by this time. Erin will safely recurve thanks to our trough bringing cooler weather, and a "kicker" flow due to troughing over in Canada. While a U.S. landfall isn't happening, we cannot forget about coastal impacts. As Erin approaches there will be significant wave heights along exposed beaches to our east, as well as significant rip current risk. Depending on how close Erin gets, there could be gusty winds in southeast New England, especially the Cape and Nantucket. Even there though, conditions should be sunny. The satellite images will be something late week--a reminder that hurricane season is nothing to take lightly. 

As for our weather, Wednesday and Thursday will bring some shower risk, but it will be low. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. While Wednesday may be a bit cloudy, I'm thinking Thursday is quite nice. 

The nice weather continues into Friday with Erin passing well to our south and sunny and dry conditions remaining in place. Temperatures will creep up to more seasonable levels, but humidity should remain manageable. 

Above: the Euro depiction of Wednesday-Friday with the GFS depiction below. It's a close call with Erin that's not actually that close, as the steering pattern was nowhere near what would allow for a New England tropical cyclone hit. 

Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is looking nice and seasonable. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s, with humidity levels that look low to moderate. We will be watching the timing of a cold front, so I will introduce some shower chances on Sunday. The coming weekend does not look like a washout by any means. 

Watching the Atlantic
I haven't talked that much about Erin because once it became clear that the steering pattern was not conducive for a New England hit, it wasn't worth talking too much about for the purposes of our forecasting. 

For now, that is also the case with our newest tropical wave, which is about where Erin was a few days ago. 

Above: the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) tropical weather outlook. A wave passing the Cabo Verde Islands is currently weak, but has a 40% chance of development in the next seven days. 

This latest wave is following on the heels of Erin, and has a lot going for it. First of all, while there is dry air and Saharan dust (SAL) in the Atlantic, that didn't stop Erin, and often storms like Erin can clear the way for follow up waves to deal with less dust and dry air. I think that will be the case here. In addition, wind shear doesn't look overwhelming, and the atmospheric conditions look favorable as it gets further west. 

So why the paragraphs on this one? First, the doom runs you may have seen of this wave hitting the U.S. are hype--just like with Erin. What is different however, is the potential for this system to make it further west because the steering pattern looks different in the long range. 

I think this is one that develops later than Erin as well, which may keep it further south. ​Unlike Erin, which is being turned north and out to sea by a break in the Atlantic ridge, it looks like there's a real chance that this wave does not have the same escape route. What's more, there may be ridging in Canada where there is troughing now and troughing to our west where there is ridging now. That is the kind of pattern that makes me perk up, as it opens the door--if it happens--for a tropical system to get pulled north near the east coast or in the Gulf. 

Below is what a historic New England tropical pattern looks like. At least for now, ensembles show some semblance of this kind of pattern in the longer range. It means little now as the exact placement of features will change and there's no guarantee that this wave will even be where it needs to in order to get picked up rather than kicked out to sea, but it's something. The composite comes from meteorologist Eric Webb, using historic landfall pattern data. 

Simply put, this one is perhaps worth a closer casual eye, but not hype or panic. 

The Dailies
Monday: Cloudy start with decreasing clouds and wind. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny with shower chances early. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

Sorry for the late post. It has been a busy day. 

At least the weather has been quiet! 

Today is day two of the heat wave, with most inland locations hitting 90 or higher and even Bridgeport and New Haven reaching 90. Tomorrow should make the heat wave official in most spots but we will go beyond a three day heat wave. 

Things look quiet so let's dive in before talking about the tropics! 

Above: the European model depiction of the 500mb pattern tomorrow afternoon. Note the ridging over the region and troughing starting to dive down in the Midwest. This will bring us continued heat this week, with a chance of rain and storms Wednesday and Thursday. 

Tuesday-Thursday
There's no need to drum up suspense here. The forecast for this period looks like standard August. Yes, the period will be hot and each day should get most spots into the 90s, but generally each day is looking ok with Tuesday dry, Wednesday bringing a chance of afternoon thunderstorms, and Thursday--when we expect a front to arrive--bringing a greater chance of thunderstorms, clouds, and rain. Some guidance is more aggressive bringing rain, but I am not. Some towns may make it through this period with little precipitation. Even with the heat, moisture looks limited along with some other severe storm ingredients, so I am not expecting severe thunderstorms outside of anything isolated. 

Wednesday should bring a 30-40% chance of storms, while Thursday brings a 50% chance of storms. Highs in the low to mid 90s each day for most. 

Above: the 18z European model depiction of Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday doesn't have much activity, but Thursday looks more active as the front approaches. Each day still looks hot and mostly dry. 

Friday-Monday
If you thought there was no suspense for the start of the week, there's even less for the end of the week! The front doesn't do a whole heck of a lot of cooling, we probably break our heat wave on a sunny and dry Friday before more 90 degree weather advances this coming weekend. With ridging back in place, the period is looking sunny, dry, and hot. Dog days of summer indeed. At least the humidity isn't likely to be anything like what we saw in July. 

Friday should have highs in the mid to upper 80s, while Saturday through Monday should have highs in the low to mid 90s for most. 

With this ridge in place however, what comes after it looks increasingly important to what happens in the tropics. More below... 

Above: the 18z European model depiction of the 500mb pattern for the end of the week. Note in the bottom right corner that Erin begins moving into the frame. What's happening in our region is critical to what happens eventually. 

Tropical Update
We now have Tropical Storm Erin, which is thousands of miles away from the U.S. coastline. Here is the current official forecast, hot off the presses. 

First--there is no reason to panic. The doom model runs that you may have seen online are just that--shared for clicks and often without context or real analysis. The edge of predictability for the exact track is about 5-7 days, and the average track error for each day grows significantly. This remains worth a casual eye. 

The setup is complex, but straightforward in a sense. A big ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic will steer Erin to the west over the next 5 days. By the time we get to Friday, the guidance shows the ridge breaking down some, with a weakness developing near the Antilles. That weakness would allow Erin to start turning northward. 

As that's happening, the pattern over our region becomes critical when we move into next week. The guidance generally has a big trough dive out of Canada, which would fully recurve Erin in the open sea or threaten Atlantic Canada. How strong this trough is we don't know and won't know for a while. If it's stronger, it's an easy recurve well east of the coast. If it's not, then we go from a casual eye to closely watching. 

This is a good reminder that we're entering the peak of hurricane season and it is better to have a plan and be prepared now than wait for a potential threat.

We are not guaranteed an easy recurve here, even though the odds of a direct impact look low. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB