Good Evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Over the past day or so, we have seen soaking rains from a slow moving low pressure system and cold front, especially this morning and in areas north of the shoreline. When it was not raining, clouds still persisted with intermittent mist along with muggy conditions. So not the best of days to be outside. Temperatures remained seasonable with temperatures hovering in the 70s. At this time we have coastal flood advisories in effect with astronomically high tides and an on shore flow, if you live along the shore please be advised. This is likely to persist through Thursday, Friday, and the weekend.

As for the weather this evening, conditions will remain cloudy with temperatures remaining in the 50s. Don't put that umbrella away just yet, as it looks like scattered showers will again impact the area, especially toward lunch time and beyond  with unseasonably cool conditions. Highs only look to reach the upper 50s to around 60 statewide. A steadier, heavier rain looks to develop on Thursday evening, with conditions becoming increasingly breezy. Expect 1-2 inches of rain to fall statewide before Friday morning. Moderate to heavy rain will persist through the day on Friday with windy, raw conditions. Most will not get out of the low 50s for high temps, with some places inland not making it out of the upper 40s. As you can see, there is a windy, wet, and raw pattern developing here. Rainy, raw conditions continue through Friday night with temperatures falling back into the 40s statewide.

For your weekend outlook, well, Saturday again looks raw and windy with drier conditions, temperatures again will be in the 50s with scattered showers, especially early. Clouds remain for a good portion of the day with the possibility of more rain developing during the evening. For the rest of the weekend, we have a little hurricane that will dictate the conditions for Sunday through next week. The closer Joaquin gets, the higher the "heights" get pumped up, especially in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. What that means for us, warmer, more humid air could move in depending on the track of the storm. Which is a perfect segue to talking about the aforementioned hurricane Joaquin....

Current placement of Joaquin would be just east of the Bahamas, it is moving slowly southwest at about 7 mph with winds as of the 8 pm NHC update up to 105 mph, making it a category 2 hurricane, although the hurricane hunter aircraft has found winds approaching 120 mph. This is a rapidly intensifying storm, and I expect this to be a category 3 hurricane (120 mph) by the morning. The southwest jaunt is expected to end tomorrow with movement starting to become more west and then north and northwest. At this time modeling is all over the place with this storm, with most tracks being toward the mid Atlantic and Carolinas, with an outlier bringing the storm out to sea. I do not expect this storm to go out to sea, and will hit somewhere on the eastern seaboard from South Carolina all the way up to Connecticut. More than likely Connecticut will be spared a direct hit, but then again Sandy wasn't a direct hit either as it slammed into the southern New Jersey coast line. My current thoughts on the hurricane are that it will make a landfall between Maryland and North Carolina, with remnants tracking into New York into New England. At very least I expect a heavy rain impact in the state of Connecticut. It looks as if a monster is forming, but it remains to be seen if we will be in the teeth of the monster, or just receive a glancing blow. Keep in mind, the waters north of Virginia are much cooler than the environment the storm is strengthening in now, and it is expected to be a slow mover, a direct hit up here would not be nearly as severe as a direct hit to say, the Carolinas, or even southern New Jersey. It is definitely something we are watching very closely.
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Have a great rest of your evening!  As always, thank you for your continued support of Southern Connecticut Weather. Stay tuned for all the latest concerning hurricane Joaquin.- Tim

It's been a pretty quiet period over the last few weeks here in Connecticut weather. We've seen consistently above normal temperatures leading to one of the warmest September's on record, but other then that, not much to report, as precipitation has been conspicuously absent, temperatures have been steady, and conditions have been clear, making for a spectacular stretch of late summer and early fall weather punctuated by a fantastic eclipse of the harvest moon last night. However, it looks like that quiet period is about to come to an end, with a substantial rainfall event forecast in the short term, a possible tropical system in the mid-range, and a cooler and more active look to the pattern overall as we enter October.

First, let's tackle the mid-week event. A low in Quebec, and it's associated cold front, track slowly east throughout the day tomorrow, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the forecast from the early afternoon hours onward. As it reaches our area Tuesday night, it slows, and modeling shows a connection with a surface low tracking NE from the Appalachians. This low has an impressive connection to gulf moisture(Reminiscent of the look of some of our bigger snowmakers!), and, combined with impressive Precipitable Water values, will result in widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the state from Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Thursday, when coverage will diminish as the front eventually clears the area and shifts offshore, allowing for more of a widespread light rain to develop instead of rain of a showery nature with varying intensities. 

Modeling is consistent in showing a "screw zone" developing between two areas of enhanced precipitation, but at this point, it's all over the map exactly where that will be. Regardless, all of the state looks to be in for a good soaking starting tomorrow afternoon, the only question being just how much of a soaking will it be in some areas. 

Here's a look at total rain through Thursday morning on the various guidance. 

As you can see, all show several inches of rain across the state by mid-day Thursday. Thankfully, due to the below normal precipitation across the region recently, river flooding will likely not be an issue, but urban and small-stream flooding could be an issue for the areas that get under the heaviest downpours. 

This system moves out to sea Thursday, but stalls, continuing to provide scattered showers in the forecast for Thursday, especially in further eastern areas, before all eyes shift to the next system for Friday into the weekend...

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The image above is the National Hurricane Center(A division of the NWS)'s forecast map for Tropical Storm Joaquin, a developing cyclone in the Atlantic, currently east of the Bahamas and moving slowly southwest. Modeling is in very strong agreement that this storm will turn and come up the coast, but what it does once it takes the right turn is very much up in the air on the various guidance. Solutions range from a landfall in the southern Mid-Atlantic and the heaviest rains focused in the western mid-atlantic and western northeast, to a coastal landfall on the New Jersey coastline or south of Long Island, which would bring the heaviest winds and rain to our area. A followup coastal low then comes up the coast later in the weekend, bringing more soaking rains to the area. Given the lead time and uncertainties in the modeling, trying to pin any details down at this range would be very difficult, but as of now, rain is likely from Friday through the weekend, and, depending on the track of the storm, strong winds are also a possibility, although I'm not sure I'd call them likely yet. We will continue to watch the modeling and observations, as well as the guidance from NHC, and will update again on Wednesday with more information on the track of this system and it's impacts to the state, but for now, expect a washout of a weekend with potentially heavy rains and high winds. 

Here is a smattering of the various model guidance for the storm.

GGEM, showing a storm moving almost due north up the Atlantic, brushing the New England coastline, and then plowing into Canada. Heaviest rains move from interior NY and PA into New England.

GFS, plowing the system onto the NJ coastline and then Long Island, with a secondary forming over the state and the Hudson Valley.

EURO: Showing the system making landfall in NC and then running up the coastline, passing directly over us in a much weaker form.

Here's a look at the total precipitation forecast across the state by the 3 major global models over the next week. 

These maps are consistent in showing 5"+ of rain across the entire state over the next week, with most if not all of the state seeing 8"-10"+ of rain(In case you were wondering, that would be 80-100" of snow in the winter!) if these models are correct. While I'm not sure I buy widespread totals that high, the fact of the matter is that we are about to get quite a lot of rain, and the net result could be hydrological impacts, especially in areas with poor drainage and that are prone to flooding. Depending on the track of Joaquin, strong winds are possible as well this weekend, which would exacerbate any hydrological issues and could lead to issues in coastal areas when combined with the astrologically high tides from the Supermoon as well as the rainfall from earlier in the week. Thankfully, we've been rather dry recently, which should keep issues down somewhat, but it's still something to be aware of. We'll know more about potential impacts as we nail down the path of Joaquin later in the week.

We'll have much more on the potential weekend system on Wednesday, but for now, be aware that a significant storm is possible.

Temperatures will be above normal tomorrow, then below normal throughout the rest of the period.

Here are the dailies: 
Tuesday: A chance of showers in the afternoon, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain is 95%.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain is 70%.
Friday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Sunday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.

Stay dry, stay safe(Remember: Turn around, don't drown!), and stay tuned to Southern Connecticut Weather for Connecticut's number one weather coverage of this and every meteorological event! Next update coming Wednesday, or sooner if needed. Thanks for reading!
-SA

Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

We continue to experience a stretch of picture perfect late summer weather, with mild days and cool nights being the theme of the past few days and appearing to be the theme of the upcoming period as well. We do have a few low percentage chances for precipitation in the forecast, but as of now, no major precipitation events appear to be in the forecast to break the dry spell that we've been having.

Generally, we can expect near normal temperatures tomorrow and through the weekend with mostly sunny skies, making for perfect weather to be outside enjoying a beautiful fall weekend.  Modeling then differs regarding the handling of a cutoff low that comes up from the south, with the Euro quashing it to our south and bringing in only sprinkles to the region, while the GFS brings the storm far enough north to allow some steady light rain to work its way into the state, especially in southern areas. Leaning towards just scattered showers, but will carry a chance of rain in the dailies from Sunday night through Monday night to account for the possibility of a GFS like solution. Otherwise, temperatures around normal.

Monday and Tuesday will feature above normal temperatures as the onshore flow that is keeping us cool this weekend dies off and results in heat moving in from the strong ridge which has been a feature of the pattern for quite some time now. More chances of precipitation are possible on Wednesday as a strong cold front passes through the area, and temperatures look to return to normal/below normal for the end of the week.

Here are the dailies:

Friday: Sunny, with highs around 70.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs around 70.
Sunday: Sunny, with highs around 70.
Monday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 25% in northern areas and 40% in southern areas.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, sunny, then clouds develop, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Thursday: Cloudy early, then clearing to sunny by the afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s.

As many of you may have heard, there will be a Total Lunar Eclipse Sunday night, a rare and beautiful atmospheric phenomenon. While the forecast does carry clouds in it currently for Sunday night, a slight shift of the storm track south will allow for clear skies, and so make sure to keep an eye out for an update Sunday evening outlining any possible viewing window that may arise! You can find all the information about the eclipse, including viewing times, here: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2015/22sep_lunareclipse/. 

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend!
-SA

Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

The above normal pattern that has been locked in for the last several weeks gave way to more seasonable temperatures over the last few days, providing a first real taste of fall to the state. In general, the quiet and seasonable pattern looks to continue through the forecast period, with the only chance of precipitation being at the end of the period as a possible cutoff low makes it's way up the coast early next week. 

In general, the pattern for the week appears extremely stable, with a strong high pressure placed to our north and providing for seasonable, dry conditions across the state. The warmest day of the period will be tomorrow, as clouds dissipate and temperatures warm into the mid 70s across most of the state, with low 70s on the immediate shoreline. Thursday will be a near repeat of tomorrow, and then Friday and Saturday we will see onshore flow begin to increase, leading to a stronger cloud cover and cooler temperatures, with highs topping out a degree or two on either side of the 70 mark, right around normal to slightly below normal for the period.

The only chance of precipitation in the forecast comes late in the weekend into early next week, as modeling shows a cutoff low coming up the coast. The main question which will determine if it impacts our area will be how far north the low can make it before it is pushed out to sea by the strong high, and as is usual at this range, guidance is all over the map as to the possible placement of the high and that boundary. For now, will leave a chance of precipitation in the forecast from Sunday night into early next week and will reassess later in the week. Temps will depend on the placement of the system, but close to seasonal levels are expected.

A look at the ensemble mean(GEFS) of the GFS model, showing that while the greatest concentration of precipitation on the individual members is to our SE, there is still substantial spread in the modeling and as such we should continue to keep an eye on this system.

Here's a look at the dailies:

Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the low 70s on the shoreline and mid 70s elsewhere.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low 70s on the shoreline to mid 70s elsewhere.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Monday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thanks for reading SCW! Next update coming Thursday-Friday.
-Spencer

Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

The last couple of days have provided a refreshing break from the regime of hot and humid that we've been wrapped up in, but that break looks to come to an end, as we've got another period of heat and humidity approaching before a more substantial light at the end of the tunnel emerges towards the end of next week. Nothing really has changed in the overall forecast, with a strong ridge still pushing the storm track to the north of us and leaving us high and dry, as well as hot and humid as a result of strong southern air. Modeling suggests a possible change in this status quo towards the end of the week as the ridge begins to finally push east, as shown here in a comparison of modeled temperature departures for days 1-5 and 6-10. That change is in part due to a frontal passage bringing in cooler air that will approach from the west late in the week, and that will bring around a chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the forecast period as well. Lots of model disagreement as to timing, so for now, have just painted in a wide range of chance pops and will refine as we get closer.

The Dailies:

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s.
Monday: Sunny and hot, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: Sunny and very hot,with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Wednesday: Sunny and very hot, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


Stay cool and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA