​Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather.
 
As of the 5pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Jose is a hurricane with winds of 90 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.

The NHC has now issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Fenwick Island, Delaware, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay South, and from East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

This includes coastal Connecticut

Tropical Storm Watches are issued when the potential exists for sustained tropical storm winds (winds over 39 mph) within 48 hours. 

Although Jose is currently a strong category one hurricane, it doesn’t look particularly impressive at this moment, with a tilted core due to shear and a lack of truly robust convection. The highest winds are confined to a very small section of the system. 

This is a difficult forecast. Although we understand the large scale environment very well and there is a good deal of consistency in how that evolves, we are prisoner to shifts in track and strength that will make the difference between a low and moderate impact event. I am going to give you the best information and prediction that I have at the moment, and you should know that shifts in either direction are possible.
 
Instead of pivoting from model run to model run, I want to once again preach preparation. Prepare as if you will be visited by a weak to moderate tropical storm (wind gusts between 40-60).

The Forecast

​First, Jose is expected to weaken and make its closest approach to Connecticut as a tropical storm, not a hurricane. Even though Jose is not expected to make landfall over Connecticut, it will have a large rain and wind field that will likely bring gusty winds and some rain to much of the state.
 
Potential Impacts
As I said the other day, it is important to not just look at the center line when we’re talking about tropical systems. Impacts extend out far from even the cone of uncertainty at times. Today I want to provide more refined points on potential impacts.

Rain—It currently looks like Jose will get close enough to bring rain to much of Connecticut. The European model has been most aggressive bringing rain into the state, with most falling in southern and eastern Connecticut. Still, under any scenario currently on the table, significant *inland* flooding looks unlikely. Currently I expect:

• .5-1” in NW CT
• 1- 2” in central CT
• 2-4” in coastal sections, with the highest amounts in SE CT
  
  

Wind—Models remain split, but some are robust with wind potential, especially at the shoreline. Currently, my highest confidence in tropical storm force sustained wind (39+ mph) is in southeast Connecticut. Coastal areas further west will have tropical storm sustained and gust potential but I think it is lower. Inland areas are much lower confidence  for tropical storm force gusts because I am unsure how effective we will be able to mix down stronger winds. Currently, I expect: 

• Gusts between 40-60 mph in SE CT
• Gusts between 40-50 mph along the rest of the shoreline and interior CT, with higher gusts closer to the shore
• This is heavily dependent upon the track and strength of the system.
  
  

With these winds, I think there is the possibility for scattered power outages. I do not currently expect a major power outage situation statewide, but people in SE CT should keep close watch.

Coastal Flooding—I’m still a bit uncomfortable talking about this in detail, but I think people at the shore should be prepared for minor to moderate coastal flooding. There remains potential for some beach erosion and rough surf regardless of track. People along the shoreline should not panic, but remain weather aware and begin securing property tonight and Monday.  

​Timing
Currently, there is a bit of a split on when the strongest rain and wind arrive. However, I currently think that we will see showers on Tuesday, with heavier rain by Tuesday night into much of Wednesday. For wind, I expect the onset of stronger winds to happen Tuesday evening through much of Wednesday. This is low confidence. Stay tuned to further shifts for this to be refined. Everyone should anticipate Tuesday and/or Wednesday being impacted. 

I think it is still too early to provide specifics about cancelations and delays, but keep an eye out for the Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM commutes being potentially impacted, with the possibility of school delays and cancelations especially the shoreline—particularly SE CT.
 
I wish I could provide a higher confidence forecast across the board but the data just doesn’t allow me to do that right now. This is the time where we refine our forecast, but that should not impact your preparation. Listen to your local officials. 
​ 
The SCW team will continue to closely monitor Jose. We will be back with updates as necessary. As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

​- DB

​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
After a very cool end to August and start of September, we’ve seen summer make a comeback over the last couple of days, with warmer and more humid conditions across the state. This weekend looks to continue that trend before we turn our attention to Hurricane Jose, which has completed its loop to the east of the US coast, and is heading northwest before turning north and tracking off the coastline. How close to the shoreline the storm tracks and how far north it is able to come before high pressure shunts it to the east will determine the magnitude of any impacts that we see from this storm.
 
As expected, Jose became a hurricane again this afternoon. This was confirmed by the Hurricane Hunters, which have been out in the storm much of this afternoon. 

Visible satellite image of Hurricane Jose as the sun began to set on it. Jose is showing signs of organization this evening and is expected to strengthen a bit more as it continues on its heading. 

Saturday-Monday
High pressure at the surface gives us a generally calm weekend, with a mix of sun and clouds and the chance for a couple of pop up showers or a spot thunderstorm or two. High temperatures should be above normal with highs in the upper 70s on Saturday and the lower 80s on Sunday. The best chance for any showers would be on Saturday where there is a bit more instability and moisture present, but precipitation chances on both days are relatively low. Clouds move in on Monday in advance of Jose’s move north and there could be some light showers. Given the wide uncertainty in the track for Jose, confidence in pops for Monday is low, so will just go with a chance of showers for now. Highs near normal in the mid 70s.

Tuesday-Wednesday and Hurricane Jose
While Irma was grabbing headlines left and right, her cousin Jose was stalled out in the Atlantic, well east of Florida and the US coast. It was drifting around in a circle and not doing much of anything despite being a very strong storm. While it has since weakened from the upper end category four storm it was, the hurricane is expected to strengthen a bit as it moves northwest and then northward towards the US coast. 

As you can see, this is an enormous area in the cone of uncertainty! According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a landfall into NYC and a track 500 miles out to sea represent the bounds of the area that is likely (but far from certain) to contain the eventual track, and there are a huge variety of potential options in between.
 
Rather than focusing on what solutions the models are showing now (which will almost certainly change on the next cycle), the important takeaway from this discussion should be that while we are in the potential track for the storm, there is still a lot of uncertainty and therefore the best thing to do is to prepare as we have been preaching all hurricane season and begin to pay closer attention to future forecasts and updates.
​
We also want to stress that the worst case scenario here is a couple of days of heavy rain and strong winds, but by no means a major hurricane. This is not going to be our Irma or Harvey and folks shouldn’t be panicking as a result of this discussion. Preparation over panic.

The Guidance
After some uncertainty in the upper level pattern, the model consensus has come around a bit more in the near term. The forecast is for a continued turn north well before Florida would be impacted. After that however, things diverge quite a bit. The Ukmet model, which did well with predicting the track of Irma at times, has a track that is close to the coastline. The GFS is a bit slower, but also strengthens the storm as it moves north, and eventually passes it over or just southeast of the Cape. The Euro, which had ticked west the last few runs, ticked further east today and is southeast of the other two models. The Euro eventually stalls out Jose to the southeast of New England, looping it around and possibly bringing it back for another try next weekend. Let's cross that bridge if we get there. 
 
The ensembles, which are really what we pay attention to when there is a complex forecast this far out, have shown a fair amount of spread over the eventual track and evolution of the low. If there is a transition from hurricane to extratropical system, that would expand the wind field, making it less necessary for an extremely close approach to have a significant event.
 
Here are images from the latest runs of all three. You can see that the Ukie is relatively strong and close to the coast, while the latest GFS is very close to us, and the Euro is looping around south of Long Island. 

Potential Impacts
It is important to not just look at the center line when we’re talking about tropical systems. Impacts extend out far from even the cone of uncertainty at times. Here, because there is a fair amount of uncertainty remaining on the eventual track and strength of Jose (though we do not expect this to be anything close to a major hurricane) we want to just talk about potential impacts in broad strokes right now and hone in as we get closer.

1. Rain—If there is a close enough approach, we can expect some rain on Tuesday and maybe later in the week depending on the eventual track and strength of the system. Under any scenario currently on the table, strong *inland* flooding across the state looks unlikely.
2. Wind—We are a bit concerned about the potential for wind impacts, especially along the coastal and eastern sections of the state. Again, this is heavily dependent upon the track and strength of the system.
3. Coastal Flooding—This is one of the trickier forecasts, and I’d rather hold off before going into this in even broad strokes. Just know that with the angle of approach, there is potential for some beach erosion and coastal flooding. People along the shoreline should not panic, but remain weather aware and be prepared to secure property should this trend toward a more impactful scenario. Again, preparation, not panic.

We’ll be keeping an eye on Jose throughout the weekend and will update you as new information becomes available and relevant. 
 
Thursday-Friday
Behind Jose, seasonable fall temperatures and generally calm weather is expected. Some residual clouds and showers could linger depending on the ultimate path of Jose so left slight pops for now.
 
The Dailies
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: SCW Period of Interest. Rain possible, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Strong winds and tropical storm conditions are possible. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: SCW Period of Interest. Rain possible, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Strong winds and tropical storm conditions are possible. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s. 

Rest assured, the SCW team will continue to closely monitor Jose. We will be back with updates as necessary. As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!

​-SA & DB

Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

It’s a beautiful fall day here in Connecticut, but down in the Caribbean, it’s a different story as Hurricane Irma, one of the most powerful hurricanes in history, completes its assault on the islands and turns its attention to Florida for later in the weekend. Guidance is coming into good agreement on a landfall in South Florida and a track through the state up into Georgia and potentially the Carolinas. Catastrophic damage is expected to occur throughout the state, and hundreds of thousands are under mandatory evacuation orders, with many many more in a situation where they should leave regardless of what any order may say.

Here is a look at the latest run of the GFS, showing the consensus track for the system. We will see a landfall in Florida by Sunday morning, and the storm will slowly move northwest into the southeastern states before dissipating by midweek.

There really isn’t much more to say about Irma that hasn’t already been said. Regardless of exactly where the landfall occurs, there will be extremely strong winds, a substantial storm surge, and potentially significant flooding. Therefore, instead of focusing on the minute details of the track, I think it is much more important to highlight what needs to be done to prepare for the storm. If you have family or friends in Florida, ideally, they should be evacuating and en route to a safe location outside the path of the storm. Information and guidelines on a successful evacuation can be found here. Many airlines are offering discounted fares out of Florida through the weekend and are adding additional flights to accommodate those needing to leave. If people insist on staying, they should have a several week supply of drinking water and non-perishable food. Widespread power outages are likely, and it could take weeks to be restored. Have flashlights and extra batteries available. Here is detailed information from FEMA on how to successfully prepare for a hurricane. Let us know if you have specific hurricane questions and we will try to answer them as best we can, but the overall message is the most important; this is a life threatening system and individuals in its path either need to evacuate or be prepared.
Meanwhile, in Connecticut, we’re looking at a tranquil weekend. Temperatures will continue to run below normal, with highs a few degrees on either side of 70 for both Saturday and Sunday. Could see a few widely scattered showers tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be dry and mostly sunny. Moving into next week, we’ll warm up to start the workweek with highs in the mid 70s on Monday and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. We could see some showers on Wednesday as the remnants of Irma make their way north, but nothing even remotely close to hurricane conditions will be seen in Connecticut; if I didn’t tell you these showers were from Irma, they would seem just like any other passing shower. Dry weather returns to end the workweek with highs in the mid 70s on Thursday and upper 70s on Friday.
The Dailies
Saturday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 70s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wednesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s.

Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

Disc: Another taste of fall is upon us, and this will be an extended "taste".  However, there will still be some warm days mixed in the overall pattern.  Meanwhile, although there are no immediate threats to Connecticut, there are currently three hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.

Currently: A cold front is sprawled out along the E coast from Pensacola, FL, all the way to Eastport, ME.  Three low pressure centers are analyzed along the front- one over upstate SC, one near the Jersey shore, and one near Eastport, ME.  Another weak low, associated with a trough, was near Ottawa.  High pressure stretched out through the Plains.  This high will build over our area after the frontal rains clear out.

Tonight: Waves of showers will be possible on and off throughout the night, but should end by dawn.  Without much opportunity for real radiational cooling, have generally taken a guidance blend for low temperatures tonight.  Expect low temperatures in the 50s throughout the state- low 50s in the cooler spots and upper 50s in the warmer areas.

Tomorrow: Expect slow clearing in the morning, then with convective temperatures being reached in the afternoon, expect cumulus to build.  Given those factors, temperatures should wind up very close to guidance- 70 to 75, with a few upper 70s in the CT valley and urban centers.

Tomorrow Night/Fri:  An upper level disturbance will move SE out of Canada down into Northern New England.  This upper level low could trigger a few light rain showers.  Since the system will be moving over Northern New England, the chance will be mostly limited to the NW Hills, with daytime heating.  Therefore, there should be a larger than normal gradient in temperatures on Friday.  Temperatures south of I 84 should be close to guidance; north of there, temperatures will probably run a degree or two cooler than guidance.  So, expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s in the NW hills, to the mid 70s along the south coast and urban centers.

Long Term (the weekend and beyond): An absolutely beautiful, crisp weekend is on the way.  After that, we will get some rain, either from just a warm front, or possibly from whatever remains of Irma.  

First, we'll group Saturday through Monday together.  These days will be fair with beautiful, albeit crisp, early fall weather.  Expect highs on Saturday to range 65-70- very close to guidance.  Saturday should be mostly sunny, but it could very well cloud up in the afternoon in the NW Hills, as spokes of upper level energy still rotate around from Canada.  There is a very slight chance of a sprinkle in that area, but I'll leave it out of the forecast, due to basically a zero probability of measurable precipitation.

By Sunday, there should be no more upper level energy to worry about, so the entire state should be basking in the sun with a downsloping flow, so I'll go a few degrees higher than guidance and take the entire state, except the NW hills, into the mid 70s, but a few low 70s up in the hills.  We'll do the same regarding guidance on Monday and take most of the state to near 80, but with low humidity and plenty of sun.  It should be noted that most of the state will be in the 40s for lows over the weekend, with a few of the very cold spots approaching 40 degrees.

Now for Tuesday to Wednesday, there are several track possibilities with Irma... first would be a Florida landfall, followed by a slow decay over the SE, which would result in devastating flooding over most of the SE and little effects up here, other than a gusty NE wind.  The other option is a Carolinas landfall.  This option then has two subsets of possibilities that could happen thereafter.  The first would be that Irma hits the Carolinas from the SE and continues NW and then decays over the Appalachians.  This would bring squally weather into the region, with rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds possible.  A final option would be for Irma to make a landfall in the Carolinas and then continue near or up the coast, moving N.  This would be the highest impact event for our area, as we would, at the very least, see heavy rain and high winds.  At this time, it looks like the first or second options, or a combination of the two, would be the most likely solution.  However, it is important to note that this is still in the 6-7 day time frame, and to make a declarative statement this far out would be ridiculous.  Even if Irma decays over the SE and has little or no effects on the area, a warm front will still be approaching from the SW, so rain will be possible either way.  And with a very large and powerful tropical system to our south, it is likely that at the very least, winds will pick up a bit.  As for temperatures, this is also a very tricky forecast.  As it is, I'll go near guidance on Tuesday (with the expectation that any precipitation holds off until Tuesday night), which would be temperatures near 80 degrees or so... then I'll go a couple degrees lower than guidance- mid to upper 70s- for Wednesday, with the expectation that rain will fall much of the time.  Obviously, a track up the coast would result in much cooler temperatures.

Beyond whatever happens on Tuesday and Wednesday, it is possible we enter a period of above normal (to maybe even much above normal) temperatures from September 15-20, followed by a significant cool down back to below normal (at least that's how I see it right now).

Tropical Wx: It is rare that there are three named hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin at once.  However, we officially have three.  Irma, we all know about, then in back of Irma, we have Jose.  Most modeling suggests Jose would go out to sea.  However, some of it is very close to giving CT at least a brush with a tropical system.  Being that this is 10+ days out, it is at least close enough to keep our eyes on.  It does not appear that Jose will be as strong as Irma.  Finally, we have Katia, deep in the Southern GOM.  This storm will have no impact on any of the CONUS, but will produce hurricane conditions in the Mexican state of Veracruz.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems that will be affecting the area in the coming week... how about just a "then and later" with Irma this time.

Here is a look at where Irma is now and the National Hurricane Center's track.  Note that today's cone has shifted significantly east of yesterday's, and now takes the center of Irma very near the coast of Florida, before making a sharp turn due North.  The key to CT will be where it goes from there, which is still to be determined.

​

And now, let's take a look at what one computer model does with what's left of Irma when it gets closer to our latitude.  On this particular run of the model, what's left of Irma is actually that decaying low pressure system in southwestern Indiana.  Effects on our area, taken literally, would be very minimal.  However, as I have said, we are still almost a week out, and a lot can change in a week.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!

​-GP!

​Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
 
Exceptional. Historic. Dangerous. All of these words could be used to describe Hurricane Irma, one of the strongest hurricanes the tropical Atlantic has ever seen.
 
As of 8pm, Irma is a category five hurricane in the Atlantic. It is 85 miles east of Antigua and moving just a touch north of due west at a good clip. Irma has sustained winds of 185mph. The record in the Atlantic is 190 mph.
 
A number of hurricane hunter planes are out in the storm currently, and it is quite possible that Irma is still strengthening. If you look at the infrared satellite, you can see why. 

Irma is a symmetrical storm in an environment of low shear, high and deep sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric moisture. There are few things holding it back. One, is land interaction. If Irma hits Cuba or Hispaniola it would seriously disrupt the core. The other, and more likely, are eyewall replacement cycles. These reorganizations of the hurricane’s center happen frequently in strong hurricanes, and often plateau or weaken storms. However, ERCs also expand the wind field of the system, and that has been the case with Irma. 

The Forecast

There isn’t much to say about the track. It remains likely that Irma will pass near or just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas by the end of the week. By then, the forecast becomes much more uncertain. The guidance remains split on whether Irma continues into Cuba, but there is large consensus that there is a turn to the north that happens as the steering flow develops a weakness allowing for a turn.

If you are watching the models, remember that we are looking at a highly convoluted and complex upper level pattern. Do not become attached to one model run or series of runs. Track and intensity is highly sensitive to atmospheric changes, and we will not have consensus on long term evolution for a while. However, the odds continue to increase that some or much of Florida will see significant impacts. 
 
There is currently no imminent threat to Connecticut.

​As I said over the weekend, the pattern as currently modeled does not look similar to patterns in the past that have brought landfalling tropical systems. However, this far out, the errors among even the best models and forecasters is at least 100 miles. Few things seem to be off the table at this time. This is about as serious a storm as the east coast can see, and we will continue to watch it. What I said Sunday continues to ring true. 

1. There remain fundamental questions about the future track of Irma. All options remain on the table, though if I were placing odds right now, I would lean strongly against any direct New England hit. The currently modeled pattern does not look like a classic hurricane pattern for the region, but I think there is a heightened risk of a US impact somewhere. 
2. It will be another few days at least before we have a better sense of what the track will be. Don’t get caught up with whatever others are saying on social media. At this range model solutions are not reliable.
3. Although it is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States, I urge everyone in hurricane-prone areas to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

As we are entering the peak of hurricane season, you should be prepared for a storm irrespective of whether there is a threat or not. If you have family and friends in Florida, the southeast, or islands, make sure they are prepared for what could be a very strong storm.

Rest assured, the SCW team will continue to closely monitor Irma. We will be back with updates as necessary. As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
  
-DB