Good evening from SCW. 

October is almost here! The leaves are starting to change in a more noticeable way, and although we're still a bit warmer than we should be this time of year overall, the step down toward colder conditions continues. As we head into October, the average high temperature for inland areas is just below 70. Keep that in mind as we forecast warmer than normal temperatures...that are plenty comfortable!

The forecast for the week ahead is a bit lower confidence than usual, with multiple rain chances but none looking like a washout. 
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Monday/Tuesday
October begins wet, as a cold front approaches the region on Monday bringing increasingly cloudy conditions. I expect a mostly dry day, with isolated showers possible. Things will change during the evening hours, as the cold front approaches and gets hung up. 

Tuesday looks a bit more wet, though I am not leaning toward a washout. We should see an increase of showers during the afternoon and evening hours, and some rain could be heavy at times. Temperatures are tricky because we're not quite sure where the front will hang up, but my current guess is that we remain relatively warm. 

High resolution NAM depicting shower and heavier rain chances from Monday morning to early Wednesday morning. 

Wednesday/Thursday
​The middle of the week looks warm, as we return to dry and quiet conditions on Wednesday. However, a cold front will approach again on Thursday, and in advance of it we should see shower chances. I don't think we're looking at a washout here either, but we'll keep an eye on it. 

Friday/Weekend
Unfortunately, the next weekend is uncertain. The overall pattern remains something of interest. We're still seeing a lot of ridging, that makes conditions favorable for warmer (and at times, much warmer than normal) temperatures. This weekend we see another big ridge slide toward and over the region. Looking at multiple layers of the atmosphere show that we could see a much warmer than normal weekend, but this far out, I think this is overdone and we stay on the edge of things.

Bottom line? Stay tuned to our midweek forecast. 

Above, the 500mb depiction of Friday-early Sunday on the European Model. Below, the 850mb depiction of temperature anomalies. Well above normal above the ground could easily translate to above normal temperatures at the surface, but I lean cooler at this time. 

The Dailies
Monday: Increasing clouds over the course of the day with a chance of showers late in the day and during the evening. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain (late) 30%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Some may be heavy at time. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Friday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

Good evening from SCW and happy Fall!

Today was a lot more cloudy than anticipated, with easterly flow leaving us socked in with clouds and cool conditions. As I mentioned in my weekend post, much of the week looks quiet. However, we have unsettled weather that will cover the first part of the forecast period. 

Tuesday/Wednesday
The next two days look wet, as a warm front and system approaches the region. Tomorrow looks chilly, raw, and wet, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms possible throughout the day. There is a low, but nonzero, risk of strong to severe storms. The main story however will be the rain, which may cause some flash flooding in spots where the heavy rain persists. Overall, I expect rain on the order of 1-3" tomorrow. 

Wednesday looks drier for more of the day, but toward the afternoon and evening hours that system approaches, bringing another chance of heavy rain and strong to severe storms. Wednesday will feel like summer's last gasp, with above normal highs and humidity, but once the system passes we'll be right back to seasonable fall conditions. The latest high resolution NAM shows this well. Heavy rain tomorrow followed by a chance of storms later on Wednesday. 

Thursday/Friday
After the shortwave and attendant front push through the region late Wednesday and early Thursday, high pressure settles back in and we should gradually clear out. Expect temperatures closer to normal for the year--upper 60s to low 70s--and partly sunny skies. Watch how the latest GFS shows mid level temperatures rise and fall over this part of the forecast.

Saturday-Monday
The weekend and start to next week (October!) looks fantastic. High pressure should stay in control, bringing dry and fall like conditions throughout the state. No freezes are on the horizon, but we should see crisp cool nights and the seasonal fog usual spots see. 

The Dailies
Tuesday: Rain, heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 100%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Thursday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of showers early 10%. 

Friday: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

​Good evening from SCW!
 
Post-Tropical Storm Florence, after battering Virginia and the Carolinas with torrential rainfall and strong winds, is now heading towards Connecticut, with the leading edge of the system almost on our doorstep. Luckily, the storm has since weakened significantly since it began its trip north, but there is still a chance for some significant rainfall tomorrow, especially in northern sections of the state, and flash flooding is certainly possible.
 
Tuesday
 
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for the northern four counties.
 
Tomorrow’s going to be a wet day as the remnants of Florence bring heavy rain to the region. More widespread bands of rain move in overnight and last into the morning hours, with the afternoon being more convective in nature as a cold front moves in. Some thunderstorms are likely in this band, and there is an isolated risk of a tornado given the strong forcing present. Otherwise, the main threat is heavy rain, and given the extremely saturated column, I would not be surprised to see some brief torrential downpours that could trigger some flash flooding, especially in northern portions of the state that will be closer to the axis of the heaviest rain (likely in MA or into southern VT/NH). As far as rainfall totals go, the models are generally in good consensus for about an inch of rain across most of the state, with higher totals in the northern areas and potentially lower totals right along the shoreline. Of course, this is all subject to the whims of convection; it only takes a few minutes of a tropical downpour to tack on quite a bit to the totals.
 
Here’s a look at total QPF on the high-res NAM. Notice the high location variance; this is due to the convective nature of the system and the opportunity for isolated high totals.

​Temps tomorrow will be warm, but a bit cooler than today; highs generally will range through the 70s with very high humidity.
 
Wednesday-Thursday
 
Cold front sweeps across the region Tuesday evening and brings much improved weather for midweek. Normal to slightly below normal temps and low humidity is expected, with partly cloudy skies on Wednesday giving way to sunshine for Thursday. Should see highs in the 60s to lower 70s both days, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Dry forecast aside from some widely scattered showers on Wednesday morning as Florence exits.
 
Friday-Sunday
 
Tricky forecast for your weekend as Connecticut is on the boundary between colder arctic air to our north and warm tropical air to the south. Guidance keeps flipping which side of the boundary we end up on, which will greatly impact our sensible weather. This image from the GFS does a good job at showing what’s going on; notice the well below normal anomalies to our north compared to the well above normal anomalies to our south. We’re generally stuck in the middle, a bit on the cooler side of normal, but a relatively small shift in the placement of the features would result in a notably different outcome for us. 

​Highest confidence portion of the forecast is a warmup for Friday as a storm rolls up the Ohio Valley and into the great lakes, putting us squarely in the warm sector and providing a brief return to muggy conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are likely, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. Thankfully, this is short-lived, as a cold front behind the storm puts us back into the cold sector by mid-day Saturday. As of now, guidance generally agrees that most of the precipitation from this system passes to our north, with only some scattered showers Friday night or Saturday morning as the tail of the cold front comes through, but still plenty of potential for this to shift and bring some steadier precip to the area on Friday.
 
What happens after that depends on which model interpretation ends up winning out, but the consensus argues for a mostly dry weekend with normal to slightly below normal temps. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 50s seem like reasonable numbers to run with for now, with the caveat that these could change significantly (most likely upwards) depending on the eventual track of Friday’s system. Next system approaches for Sunday evening into Monday, this looks like a stripe of overrunning which could bring some rain to the area. Chance pops for now on that one until we get a bit closer.
 
A final note; we’re starting to see the seasonal transition into a more winter-like pattern as the jet stream begins to move south and increase in speed. You can see the cold starting to form in Canada on the models and it’s only a matter of time until it starts to bleed south. Although it might not feel like it yet, winter is coming – my skis are ready! We’ll start to speculate on winter in a couple of weeks, with a winter forecast coming in early November. Stay tuned!
 
The Dailies
 
Tuesday: Rain, with thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
 
Wednesday: A chance of showers in the morning, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Thursday: Sunny, with highs in the lower 70s.
 
Friday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Saturday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
 
Have a great night and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather! The NWS has just released a flash flood warning for Middlesex, New Haven, and New London counties until 5:15 in response to the convective weather that has been firing up along the coast and southeast portion of the state. The NWS has also released a flash flood advisory for Litchfield, Tolland, Hartford, and Windham counties. Recent observations at Tweed New Haven airport and Sikorsky Memorial airport report close to half an inch of rain falling in the past 2-3 hours at these locations.
            Currently a surface flow from the northeast is converging with an upper level flow from the southwest, and as a result this convergence is creating storms across the state. NWS data shows very high precipitable water values that max out near the coastline, as well as moderate CAPE values. These clusters of rain and embedded thunderstorms will favor the coastline and the eastern portion of the state now, and eventually the rest of the state this evening. 
            For your commute home tonight, be aware of the threat for flash floods and make sure to take it easy on the roads, especially if you are commuting along the coastline. The rain looks to continue late tonight and end early tomorrow morning, with the slight chance for passing showers tomorrow.


























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(Current radar for New England)




This Weekend
In terms of the near future, the upper level ridging that will keep Florence to our south will bring seasonal temperatures for us finally. As the rain moves out Thursday night, Friday into the whole weekend looks absolutely amazing. This weekend would be the perfect time to go apple picking or go to one of the many CT fairs across the state.
 
Next Week and Florence
Tuesday next week seems interesting. Models appear to just be picking this up, based on the latest model data. The Euro and GFS both indicate an upper level trough coming into the middle of the country, and picking up Florence and bringing her north and east. At this point though, Florence will most likely be tropical depression or a very weak low, and there is no serious threat to New England. But, this will impact our weather for the majority of next week, particularly after Monday. This would suggest rainy, humid weather for next week. At this point it is still very early to call, but models have just started to agree on this path for the system, so we will let you know if anything else changes.






The Dailies
 
Thursday: Chance for rain. Highs in the 70s. Humid. Chance of rain 60%.
 
Friday: Cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s.
 
Saturday: Sunny. Beautiful, highs in the upper 70s.
 
Sunday: Sunny. Beautiful, highs in the uppers 70s.
 
Monday: Mostly sunny, highs in the upper 70s.
 
Tuesday: Chance for showers. Highs in the upper 70s.
 
 
 
 
Thank you again for reading Southern Connecticut Weather, and enjoy your evening!
 
-LD

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

What a difference a few days make! This weekend was cool and much less humid, and I daresay it felt a bit like fall!

All eyes are on Hurricane Florence, but as the title suggests, we have a wet and warmer week ahead. Let's dive in.

Monday
Tomorrow looks wet. It should be the last day of this cool streak, as we're socked in with clouds and rain showers, some of which could be moderate to heavy. It will be breezy and cool, with highs in the 60s for just about everyone. It's an umbrella day for sure.  

As the Hi-res NAM illustrates, tomorrow looks wet. There may even be some embedded thunderstorms as well. 

Tuesday
Tuesday looks a drier than Monday, but it is a lot warmer and humid as well. A warm front will pass through the state and as a result things look much warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be the continued chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but otherwise things look quiet and cloudy. The NAM run above shows that as well and the one below shows the temperature contrast from Monday to Tuesday.

Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week looks quieter but remains warm. There's not much to say other than there will be continued shower chances but they will be lower than the start of the week. 

Friday
High pressure looks to build in, and we should see sun again. I'm expecting another warm day but with the most sun all week. 

Saturday/Sunday and Florence
Here's where it makes sense to have a discussion on Hurricane Florence. Florence is currently churning in the central Atlantic, and is gradually intensifying. Winds are currently 85mph, but are expected to go much higher over the next few days. In fact, there is a rare model consensus that Florence will undergo rapid intensification in the next 24 hours, and will be a major hurricane tomorrow. 

GOES-16 IR satellite imagery. The darker colors indicate colder cloud tops, meaning strong thunderstorms. It's a way that we can identify strengthening and organization of tropical systems. 

The forecast for Florence is actually pretty straight forward. Over New England and the Ohio Valley, we will see very unusual ridging in the mid levels develop. While that brings us heat, it creates an environment that will steer Florence closer to the coast. Where exactly, remains unclear, but the guidance has been consistent that this is more of a southeast or Mid-Atlantic (think Virginia) threat rather than a New England one. 

Usually, for a New England landfall threat, a storm approaches from the south as a trough steers the system north, often rapidly. There's no trough here, and the only way that we'd see a direct impact from Florence would be if the ridging were significantly over modeled or ended up in a different location. This closely in time, that's highly unlikely.

Above is the 500mb height simulation from the European Model, our best guidance overall. It speaks for itself. We see a building ridge over the northern tier of the US and into the Atlantic that blocks Florence into North Carolina. Now, that could change, but it's unlikely. 

That said, there has been some guidance that has shown that after a North Carolina impact we see the ridge break down quickly and remnants of Florence are guided to the region during the weekend and early next week. There is very little support for this, further increasing confidence that Connecticut does not see anything close to a Hurricane Florence landfall.

Even without a direct impact, folks at the beach should be careful for rip currents and high waves. People die every year because a storm is hundreds of miles away and they don't pay attention to waves and rip currents. 

Don't let your guard down. Make sure you are reviewing your hurricane preparedness plan and paying close attention. We'll have more during the week on Florence. 

The Dailies
Monday: Rainy and cool. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s. Chance of rain 90%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

​As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​