Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.

Dry. It has been very dry across Connecticut in recent months. After the driest summer on record for some locations and a stable pattern that has favored rain to the west of the state when the opportunities have occurred, we are finally moving into a break. The week ahead looks wet! 

Above: the latest drought monitor information showing an extreme drought for parts of the state--quite an uncommon designation in this area. 

Monday
There will be some showers around tomorrow, but overall tomorrow is not looking like a washout or likely to produce much in the way of rain. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70s again and a fair amount of humidity. This time of year, humidity is relative though, so it'll feel sticky but not awful. 

Tuesday-Thursday
This is our prime period for rainfall potential. Right now, it looks like the periods of rain will put a significant dent in our drought. While Tuesday doesn't look too wet, we should see more widespread showers. Wednesday and at least early Thursday look very wet. 

A big trough is going to move toward the East Coast and it will orient itself in a way that will allow for great moisture transport. In addition, we are likely to see some (non-tropical) coastal development that will enhance the rain potential. One thing that I am watching closely is a second possible low to develop and move offshore on Wednesday/Thursday. Depending on the track and strength of this possible low, we could see some gusty winds, especially at the shoreline. This will be something to watch and refine in future forecasts. 

Below are the overall rain forecasts through early Friday. The first image is the GFS and the second is the European model. I lean toward blending the guidance right now, with a general 1-3 inches of rain for the state. I think the highest amounts are going to be more isolated, but a strong storm will increase maximum rainfall potential. 

Friday-Sunday
Friday may bring us some more rain showers if another weak low develops along the trough and moves through the region, but that is in doubt at this point. 

Currently, the weekend is looking fine, but we will be watching an area of low pressure in the Caribbean. There are some indications that a low could form and given the troughing in our region we'll just need to watch to see if some more moisture can be thrown our way next week. Long way out and nothing to seriously watch at the moment, but remember that our active hurricane season is not over.  

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
 
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain and breezy conditions, especially early. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. ​

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​
-DB​ 

Disc: Measurable rain will likely fall by Monday morning (although some places could get it earlier than that- we'll get to that in a bit), but this will end a two week plus stretch of no rain across the area.  The pattern is likely to overall turn more active, w/more frequent storms and a theme of more frequent cold air intrusions.

Currently: Not much going on.  High pressure over the Shenandoah Valley is protecting us from a few wx elements, including a cold front near the Canadian border and the remnants of Beta over the deep south.  Moisture from Beta is responsible for the cloudiness tda, esp over the S coast.

Tonight: Varying amounts of clouds.  Highest concentration of clouds is prob across the S coast.  No pcpn xpctd anywhere.  I went pretty close to guidance on temperatures, although I could see reasoning to go a degree or two warmer than guidance along the South coast, due to higher cloud cover.  So I played around w/that a little bit.  All in all, xpct low temps generally in the upper 50s, xcpt near 60 alg the S coast.

Tomorrow: Once again, and for the same reasons as today, there should be varying amounts of cloudiness, with the highest concentration along the south coast.  Guidance is warm for tomorrow, and for now, I will play along.  However, it is certainly possible that tmrw's guidance verifies too warm, esp if it's cloudier than fcst.  For now, I'll cautiously call for high temps around 80 deg in the I 91 corridor to mid 70s alg the SE coast, w/most  other places in the upper 70s.

Tomorrow night/Sat: Any moisture associated with the remnants of Beta will make its closest approach to the region this weekend.  For now, I will not mention any precipitation in the fcst, as models that did have precipitation this far N have corrected a bit S.  Hwvr, a lot of gdnc is close enough that this fcst could still wind up wrong.   For now, though, I think all pcpn associated w/the remnants of Beta stays S of NYC, and possibly even S of there.  Assuming my reasoning is correct, I'm going to go a couple degrees warmer than guidance temperatures and allow for some sun.  This will allow for highs to reach the mid to upper 70s.  OF course, if the pcpn and at least clouds get further N, these temps will likely be too warm.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): Unsettled weather will start the period.  For now, based on model timings, I have elected to keep Sunday dry, although it is not impossible to think that showers could creep into the SW zones before the end of the day. In the interest of simplifying the forecast, however, I have kept the day part dry, with precipitation arriving after dark.  Most of the state will only need slight chances with this anyway.  Hwvr, Ern CT could see higher chances, and higher chances are being incorporated into the fcst for the SE coast, as oceanic enhancement occurs there.  Because I expect more clouds than what models have, I went a few degrees below temperature guidance for Sunday.  This yields high temps near 70, except low 70s in the I 91 corridor.

For Monday, as the front approaches, expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms at any point during the day.  I don't want to get too cute with timing and chances, but for now, the highest chance continues to look to be E CT, esp SE coast, and then chances begin to increase everywhere later in the day and at night.  As for temperatures, with timing being important, i.e. a pop-up storm in the middle of the day would hamper warming, I did not bother getting too  cute with guidance numbers.  So I went close to the guidance in calling for highs of 70-75 degrees.

For Tuesday, some of the latest arriving guidance shows the front stalling out, with bands of heavy rain developing along it.  This is certainly meteorologically possible, as the battle between incoming cold air and the Atlantic ridge continues.  So I have trended the fcst in that dir- calling for rain, heavy at times on Tue.  Again, at this juncture, I don't want to go too crazy w/timing and heavy rain, but as of now, it looks like the heaviest rain will be later in the day.  Hwvr, since rain can fall at any time during the day, I am not going to go crazy and confusing w/timing.  Altho the entire state stands to get a potential good soaking, the heaviest rain looks to be W of I 91 this time.  For now, given uncertainty in timing of waves of rain, I went close to guidance temperatures.  However, if it turns out to be an all-day rain, these temps could be too warm.  For now, I have highs genly in the low 70s in the fcst.

For Wed and Thu, these two days look to feature cooler and drier weather.  There is a small chance, especially out east, that some showers linger into Wed morning, but for simplicity's sake, i decided to keep it dry for now.  For temperatures, I went a few degrees below guidance on Wednesday, as models tend to struggle with temperatures in cold air advection, then closer to guidance for Thursday.  Expect high temps in the upper 60s both days.

Looking into the longer range, I don't see anything out of the ordinary for the time of year.  There does seem to be a good avail of cold air at the moment, so temps probably avg a bit below normal.  There will also prob be a chc of brief showers every few days, with frontal passages.

Now let's take a look graphically at the cold frontal passage for Tuesday.  Since that is really the "main event" for this pkg, I think that is the only graphic I am going to post at this time.  Verbatim, some of that precipitation weakens before making it to us, but it still gives us a good soaking.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and stay safe!

-GP!

Disc; Really not much happening this week.  The biggest things to track are temps, smoke, and swells on the ocean.

Currently: Temperatures have warmed pretty nicely this afternoon, but that will soon become a thing of the past.  Current analysis shows cold air nudging into CPA from the W.  This air will gradually move into our area tonight and certainly into tomorrow.  Meanwhile, moisture from former Hurricane Sally should remain to our South., for the most part.  However, it does appear this moisture is a bit further N than progged.  I'll get into that in the next paragraph.

Tonight: Because moisture from the former Sally is further north than progged, and because we also do have a cold front going through, I have decided to include small chances of light showers or sprinkles in the forecast through the night for the entire state.  There could be a round this afternoon and then more overnight, with a break in between, but since the precip, if any, will be very light, there's no need to get real cute with the timing.  The only area of the state where I have a concern to have a separate fcst is the SE coast (Srn Middlesex/Srn New London Counties).  There could be a pd of steadier light rain there for a few hours tmrw morn (maybe 5-10 AM), as the remnants of Sally make their closest approach.  

Tomorrow: Skies will probably then be slower to clear tomorrow than most guidance indicates, and when they do clear, cold air advection will commence.  Therefore, I have gone a few degrees below temp guidance tomorrow.  High temps will be somewhere in the 60s throughout the state.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Not much to talk about.  This will be the theme thru early next week.  Sunny, fall-like days, and clear crisp nights will dominate.  I went just a couple degrees above guidance on Sat, due to full sun, but if we cont to see smoke from the fires out W this could turn out to be too warm.  Since neither I nor comp gdnc are good fcstrs regarding ash in the air, I won't mess with sound met reasoning, and if the smoke hangs ard and this turns out too warm, later crews can refine it.  For now, xpct highs genly in the mid 60s, w/a few upper 60s psbl alg the I 91 corridor.

Long Term: The only real chance of precipitation in the long term appears to be later next Wed/Wed night.  Since this is day 6.5, my long term discussion will be much shorter than normal and just focus on temps.

For temperature reasoning, I stayed close to guidance most days.  I went a couple degrees above guidance on Mon, as it will be the sunniest day of that period, then also on Wed and Thu, as high pressure will then be offshore, allowing for warming, via return flow.

Sunday through Tuesday will be cool, especially the first two days of that period.  Wed and Thu will be quite a bit warmer, with the high pressure system shifting offshore.

A frontal passage later Wed could bring a brief chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Otherwise, little or no precipitation is expected through the period.

As for temperatures, expect highs in the 60s on Sunday, although it is possible that some areas in the northwest hills stay in the 50s! Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s Mon, upper 60s Tue, although a few spots along I 91 could get to 70 on Tuesday.  Then for Wed and Thu, xpct highs in the mid to upper 70s Wed and upper 70s Thu.  On Thu, it is conceivable that one of the warm spots alg the I 91 corridor gets to 80!

The long range does not look too atypical for this time of year.  Some modeling has been hinting at a heat wave between 9/26 and 9/30.  How hot we get would depend on the storm to our W.  A very strong storm sys that comes closer to the area would blast more warm air into the region.  A weaker, farther W low would result in more onshore flow and much cooler temps.  Either way, the bets are for abv norm temps during that pd.  Thereafter, guidance has been hinting at a strong frontal passage around 9/30, which could have heavy rains with it, followed by another shot of very cool weather.  Again, nothing too atypical for this time of yr.

There are no graphics necessary today, because there should be 0.10" or less of total precipitation through the next week!  Take care and stay safe!

​-GP!

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

This will be a short discussion as much of the week is looking wonderful! Rain chances will remain low, and conditions look mostly nice as we go through the week. 

Monday-Wednesday
The period is looking very nice. Although the temperatures on Monday and Wednesday look warmer than this weekend, the temperatures will be perfectly manageable in the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday may be the gem of the work week, as we may see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with low humidity and clear skies. In addition, Monday night and Tuesday night could bring lows in the 40s for much of inland CT! Fall is here, folks!

Above: 12z GFS 850mb temperature departures. After a warm Monday, we cool down through early Wednesday, when "warmth" returns. This sets the stage for crisp and cool evenings during the first two nights of the work week. 

Thursday-Sunday
This period looks fine too, but Friday may bring the chance of rain showers. There is a split in the guidance on what happens. The European model brings remnants of Tropical Storm Sally toward the region while the GFS just brings some light showers as a cold front passes. I am leaning toward drier solutions, but we'll be watching. 

The weekend looks beautiful, with cooler temperatures and dry conditions. 

Above, the 12z GFS depiction during the latter half of the week. The GFS keeps the remnants of Sally far to our south, and I agree with that right now. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Thursday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.  

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 70s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ 

The two unsettled days in this forecast period are right now through tonight and possibly tomorrow morning, then Sunday, probably later in the day.  Other than that, a lot of nice days are featured in this fcst!

Currently: A cold frontal system extends from W PA and WNY, up through Northern New England.  A weak tropical impulse was near the Delmarva.  The combo of these two features, in addition to a warm, humid air mass in place, has left us unsettled today.

Tonight: Areas of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing the rest of today into tonight.  The general trend will be diminishing after midnight.  E of I 91, a few showers may linger into early morn.  I will not carry that into tmrw's fcst, because there's really no need.  If it does go beyond dawn, it would be less than an hr.  I'll go a couple degrees above guidance for tonight's low temperatures.  It is going to be a very muggy and sticky night.  Low temps should only be around 70.  

Tomorrow: Skies clear and we dry out.  This will probably be another one of those days where we start out a bit humid in the morn, but are dry by the end of the day.  I will generally go with guidance temperatures.  It could turn out a degree warmer in spots, due to high launching pads, but I am not going to go all crazy over one degree.  Staying close to guidance yields hi temps in the mid 70s, except some upper 70s along the I 91 corridor.

Tomorrow night/ Saturday: This will be the nicest part of the weekend and the air will have a fall like feel to it! Again I have no real reason to differ from the guidance which the NBM is presenting, so I'll ride it.  Expect hi temps generally in the low 70s.

Long Term (Sunday and beyond): The only real weather concern in this time frame is on Sunday, so we'll start off with that.  A frontal system approaches the region.  Abt 90% of the gdnc has the warm sector staying to the S (in fact well to the S) of the area, so we'll use that as the basis for the fcst.  Now that we're getting toward fall, it starts becoming harder for warm fronts to just blast thru the area.  We shud also be in a deep onshore flow regime, which would make it that much harder for any warm front to go thru.
Therefore, I will expect the main precipitation mode to be stratiform vs convective, but it wouldn't shock me if we had an imbedded flash or rumble.  The GFS is shockingly low on QPF (less than 0,25"), but all other guidance is much higher.  The NBM avg is abt an inch.  So xpct a good amt of rain and I will ignore the GFS for now.  As for temperatures, assuming that the forecast basis is correct, I'll go 3-5 degrees cooler than NBM guidance, to compensate for clouds, precipitation, and onshore flow.  Therefore, high temps should only be near 70 degrees! As for timing, noon to midnight west of I 91.  As the system slows, it could be much later East of I 91, as in 10 PM to 10 AM Mon morning.  For now, I have not xtndd the event into Mon, but it's worth noting that we may need to add a Mon Morn pd E of I 91 to cover lingering rain.

Looking beyond that, there really are no systems of note in the rest of the long term period.  So I'll broadbrush everything  and just cover temps, which also look very pleasant.  The general temp theme is pretty typical for September: A cold front will go through dry on Monday, then by Thursday, return flow sets up and we get a bit warmer.  Nothing should be too extreme on either side.

As far as temperatures and reasoning, I went a bit below guidance on Monday, because even though the cold front should pass through with no precipitation, I do anticipate more cloudiness than the models advertise, perhaps a fairly solid mid-level cloud deck, as soundings are moist above 5,000 feet.  I went a couple degrees below guidance on Tuesday, with strong cold air advection, which models often underestimate.  There are also low convective temps, which suggest cumulus cloud formation, which would also put a lid on temps.  I went a couple deg abv gdnc for Wed, and several degs abv gdnc for Thu.  Wed shud downslope and warm us up nicely.  Thu shud see good return flo, which shud aid in warming the atmos a lot more than mdls show at the lwr lvls.

What does all this mean in terms of actual temperatures? Expect hi temps in the mid to upper 70s on Mon, only near 70 on Tues (possibly staying in the mid to upper 60s in the NW hills!), low to mid 70s on Wed, and upper 70s on Thurs.

It is very possible that there are widespread 40s for lows north of the Merritt Parkway both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Into the long range, there are some signs from deterministic and ensemble model guidance that there could be some sort of an East Coast tropical threat in the 9/23-25 time frame.  It is, of course, WAY too early to say anything else on that matter, other than that time period does look like a threat at this point.

Not much to cover graphically today.  Quiet week in progress and there is really too much uncertainty w/the event on Sun to really post what I would want to post anyway.  Take care and stay safe! See you next week!

​-GP!