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October 31st, 2014

10/31/2014

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Currently temperatures across the state are in the low to mid 50s with increasing clouds throughout the great state of Connecticut. We are watching as some showers make their way in from the southwest with a little piece energy off to out southeast which could clip far southeastern New London county with some sprinkles. Rain should start to become steadier and heavier as we head past the midnight hour and through Saturday morning, also with the precipitation ratcheting up, so will the winds. By early afternoon wind gusts could be in the 30-40 mph range, mix in temperatures not even eclipsing 50, these are ingredients for a very raw, nasty day to be outside.

Looks as if the main precipitation should end by early evening on Saturday, with lingering showers, especially east of I91.

As for the probability of snow, it looks as if there is a chance for a few flakes on the backside of the storm in the higher elevations especially in northwestern and northeastern areas of the state. I could even see a stray snow flake mixed with heavier precipitation in the lower elevations of the state. I am not expecting any accumulation, maybe a coating at best on the highest of hill tops.

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October 29th, 2014

10/29/2014

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A very good morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Currently looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies across the state, which should continue to fill in with clouds over the course of the morning as the front that you can see on the visible satellite continues to move SE towards the state. As you can see on the radar, there's some light to moderate showers accompanying that front, which look to impact us later in the day today. Precipitation totals look to be limited to a tenth of an inch or two, but some brief periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible which could provide some locally higher amounts. Generally though, no big deal with just light rains expected. Highs today similar to yesterday in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Cold front comes through on the back end of the clouds and showers tonight and leads to much lower temperatures for the end of the week. Sunny skies expected for tomorrow and Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s both days.

You've probably been hearing a lot of talk from some outlets about a storm system which could impact us this weekend in that it could bring some snow to the area. While earlier model runs showed this as a fairly significant snowstorm for parts of the area, model consensus seems to be growing on an event that for the most part misses us to our east, leaving only lighter precipitation around, mainly in the form of rain. Previous model runs had a single, consolidated piece of energy, allowing the storm to come up the coast, but the newer runs now dig that energy further south into the US and send it around the trough to come back north later, so by the time it's captured and can develop into a significant storm, it's gone too far to the east to impact us. Some models also show the energy splitting into a double low, which wouldn't provide the dynamics needed to bring it closer to the coastline.

There is one exception to this, however, and that is the ensemble mean of the EURO model, which keeps the energy strong and close to the coast. As a result, heavier precipitation would work it's way into at least eastern sections, allowing for stronger dynamics to cool the atmosphere and perhaps flip some areas over to snow towards the end of the event. As of now, this is a low probability scenario, but it is worth noting that the last few runs of the other models have been trending further west.

We'll continue to keep an eye on modeling and will update if anything changes, but for now, it looks like we're looking at a chance of showers for Saturday and Sunday, perhaps mixing with or changing over to snow towards the end of the event, although minimal at best accumulations are expected. Temps look to be well below normal throughout, in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and in the low to mid 40s on Sunday, lows Saturday night getting down into the upper 30s. Strong winds, although not to the level we saw with last weeks storm, are also a decent possibility. Heaviest precipitation amounts will be to the eastern parts of the state, with western areas seeing lesser amounts or, unlikely but possible, nothing at all. We'll continue to keep an eye on the models, and if they start to shift back to the snowier solution, you'll be the first to know.

Much colder air comes in in the wake of the storm, with highs on Monday not getting out of the 30s likely, and a freeze is likely Sunday night. Gradual warming trend commences after that towards midweek, although temps still look to be at or below normal.

Look for another update tonight or tomorrow, until then, have a wonderful day!
-SA

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Forecast Discussion for 10/27/2014

10/27/2014

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Good Monday evening to everyone!

Today we had a mostly sunny day across the state with temps in the 50s to around 60. Currently temps around Connecticut are pretty uniform, mainly in the mid to upper 40s. There will be mostly clear skies across the state, which usually means radiational cooling and temps dropping like a rock, but with a moderating airmass entering the area, temps will only fall between 3 and 5 degrees from where they are now.

Looking ahead to tomorrow and Wednesday, the previously mentioned warmer airmass will dominate our weather, ushering in temps ranging from the mid 60s on Tuesday to the 70s on Wednesday. Tuesday will be the sunnier of the 2 days with showers moving in with showers moving in coinciding with a cold front for Wednesday afternoon and evening. With the passing of the cold front, temps start drop off for the end of the week.

Looking ahead to the aforementioned end of the week, temps do look to drop off somewhat towards the end of the week before plunging for the weekend, with highs on Thursday and Friday looking to not make it to the 60 degree mark statewide and highs on Saturday and Sunday being stuck in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures around the state look to not make it past the the 30s.

We are watching a potential noreaster for this weekend, later Friday through Saturday. With some cold air in place and the low track and intensity very much in doubt, there is a chance that at least part of the state does see some white stuff, especially in the Litchfield hills, and even an argument for snow in eastern CT with higher intensity of precipitation causing temps to drop and changing rain over to frozen precip. We will be watching this very closely, but it is much too early to make any guesses on accumulations.

So I have finally gotten the tech problems out of the way and apologize profusely for not updating the page as much as I should. Spencer has done a valiant job keeping the page with a pulse, without him, the page would have most certainly collapsed. Exciting times are indeed ahead for Southern Connecticut Weather as we will be launching Southern Connecticut Weather 2.0 on 11/1. Also a reminder, please fill out the survey and play in our forecast contest if you have not already done so at http://goo.gl/forms/wwCZ92AH0Pand have a chance to win a 20 dollar Starbucks or Dunkin' Donuts gift card!

Have a good evening everyone! Stay tuned for all the latest updates on the potential late week/ weekend storm.- Tim

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Forecast Discussion for 2-8-2014 as seen on SCW FB

10/21/2014

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Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Today we currently dealing with sunlight filtered through clouds in many places with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s for highs. Dry conditions are expected through the end of today. As we head through the evening and overnight hours, clouds with stay with us and temps will drop into the teens, I see a slight chance of snow flurries or a light shower that will do nothing more than coat the roads, especially in southern areas of the state. After midnight is when I expect this light snow to fall, it will be a very brief period and should be over before sunrise.

Heading through tomorrow and Monday, we have been talking about a disturbance that will be effecting the area. The snowfall map below shows our thoughts on accumulations between Sunday PM and Monday morning. Not the monster storm that had been showing up on the models, but definitely a plowable snow. After a lull from the first disturbance, which will be effecting the area between tonight and early tomorrow morning, there will be a lull until later in the afternoon on Sunday. Light snow starts again right around this time as a clipper system tracks to the south of us and tries to strengthen into a stronger coastal low. It will be to little, to late as we will only be dealing with minor accumulations in the state of Connecticut. In extreme southern Connecticut there is a possibility that there could be some heavier snow based on how fast the clipper strengthens into a coastal, and how close it does so to the coast. So we aren't ruling out an isolated area over the 4 inch mark, but there is a very small chance of that.

After these minor disturbances pass us before the beginning of the work week, the weather becomes clear and dry but still chilly through Wednesday. Later on next week we are watching another potential storm which could drop moderate amounts of wintry precipitation. There are many loose ends that need to be tied up about the storm, namely track and strength. At this time, it looks like the usual coastal areas will be right on the borderline between rain and snow. Still a solid 3 days before we get a handle on this one, but we could be dealing with yet another winter storm later next week. We will be watching that one closely, so stay tuned for details.

Have a good rest of your Saturday and stay warm. Stay tuned for all the latest from SCW!-TW

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October 31st, 2014

October 29th, 2014

Forecast Discussion for 10/27/2014

Forecast Discussion for 2-8-2014 as seen on SCW FB

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