Disc: There will be several rain events to track over the next week or so, but at least as of now, they seem to be light and nothing of significant consequence.  All in all, the pattern appears to be slipping into more of a winter regime, but more on that below.

Currently: A weak cold front has crossed the area.  Behind the front, high pressure stretches from near Saint Joseph, Missouri, to near Evansville, Indiana.  A weak low pressure wave has formed along the front over NE VA, but this low is so weak that it will be of little consequence to anyone.

Tonight: With fresh cold air advection and clear skies, temperatures will fall and this will probably be the coldest night of the season tomorrow.  Low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s- perhaps a few upper 20s in the NW Hills and upper 30s to near 40 along the immediate south coast and in the cities.

Tomorrow: A chilly one, given the cold start and clouds increasing ahead of approaching warm front.  Light rain showers are possible in the afternoon, especially in the NW portion of the state- call it sprinkle in SW CT and nothing E of I 91.

Tomorrow Night/Thu: Much warmer.  Could be a shower or even brief t-storm at any time in the NW Hills, where dynamics look best.  Sprinkles across the rest of W CT limited to the morning hours on Thursday.  E of I 91, there are literally no dynamics, and I'll keep it dry.  Since I am going cloudier and wetter than most guidance, I'll go a little cooler than most guidance, as well, but either way, it will be much warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Long Term- the weekend and beyond: Two cold fronts dominate the forecast during this time period- the first one later in the day on Friday and the second during the day on Monday.  The latter is more significant, as far as sensible weather goes, but even the first will see a significant change in temperatures.  Friday's front is fairly moisture starved, so just a sprinkle or very light rain shower will be possible in the afternoon.  Temperatures should still be fairly warm ahead of the cold front, as there will still be a decent amount of sun.  Generally look for highs in the mid 60s on Friday, with a few upper 60s in the usual warm spots- the cities and I 91 corridor.

At this time, it appears the weekend should be fairly dry, as models have backed off on any coastal low development.  However, given that today is only Tuesday, I would still keep that "old solution" in the back of my mind and not back off on it 100%.  For now, though, Saturday looks like a nice fall day, with highs between 60-65 and plenty of sun.  Sunday will be chilly, with an increase in clouds and highs generally in the mid 50s.

On Monday, a strong cold front will approach and this will likely trigger at least a round of moderate or maybe heavy showers.  If this front slows, it is possible that a larger coastal storm forms along the front.  It could be that the models initially were focusing on the weekend, then totally lose a system, and then focus on the early week system because they focused on the wrong shortwave.  It wouldn't be the first time this has happened.  Either way, Monday will not be a very pretty day.  Temperatures on Monday should warm up ahead of the front, but perhaps not as warm as we could get, due to clouds and periodic showers.  I'm thinking low 60s in general for Monday.

Tuesday, for now, I'll go with the more progressive solutions and clear the rain out before dawn.  Even that being said, it turns very chilly and temperatures will likely not rise very much from morning numbers.  Most of the state will struggle to get much past 50 degrees during the day on Tuesday! Combine that with a gusty NW wind and it will feel quite chilly.  

Long Range: The -EPO (Alaskan Ridge in laymens' terms) appears to be doing its dirty work.  If you look only east of the Mississippi River, which many people mistakenly do, and repeatedly did during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15, this wouldn't look like all that cold of a pattern, and it isn't- yet.  But just looking at the Eastern CONUS, this would look like a very warm pattern.  However, it is probably more of a very normal pattern, temperature wise, due to the battle of ridges, between the SE Ridge and the Alaskan Ridge.  In December and beyond, this would be a rather chilly to possibly frigid pattern, but we're not there yet, and patterns can and do change.

As far as November as a whole goes, I am thinking generally normal temperatures and precipitation across the area.  We could get into something of an Alberta Clipper storm track as the month wears on, as a -EPO pattern and weak La Nina in late fall would favor that.

Now, let's take a graphical look at some of the systems expected to affect the area this week.  Although there are technically multiple perturbations imbedded within the flow from tomorrow night into Friday, I don't want to waste too much server space on three or so waves that will combine to produce less than 1/10" of precipitation across the area.  So I'll post a map of the daytime on Thursday, when any precipitation from those system(s) would be the most widespread:

​

As you can see on this map, all precipitation associated with this system is quite light, but the highest concentration of any precipitation chances is up in the NW Hills.

Now, let's look at the frontal system for Monday.  You can see a NNW-SSE moving band of rain traversing the state.  This is a much better opportunity for more widespread rains, even if the frontal system is all we get.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great Halloween, filled with lots of treats, but no tricks!

_GP!

  Disc: Evidence is mounting that a major storm system will affect the state Sunday and Sunday night. Exact details still have to be worked out.

Currently: Low pressure centered near Groton is still producing some showers, clouds, and windy conditions across the state.  This low will lift out tonight, allowing skies to clear.

Tonight: With clear skies and temperatures starting from a lower point than most guidance had them, I;ll go under guidance on temperatures.  Looks like lows statewide should range from the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Tomorrow: Sunshine and a nice crisp fall day.  General highs in the mid 60s, give or take a few degrees- cooler in the NW Hills, warmer in the CT Valley/I 91 corridor.  With clear skies and dry conditions, temperatures should  be near or just above guidance.

Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Continued nice weather, with an increase in clouds later Saturday, especially in the SW.  Although the air mass is warmer on Saturday, increasing clouds and a deep-layer marine flow will keep the temperatures similar to levels of Friday.

Now for the Sunday-early Monday event, which will be separated from the rest of the long term:

A stalling cold front with a rapidly developing low pressure system along it will combine forces with at least the moisture feed (and possibly more) from a tropical wave, currently located near the coast of Nicaragua.  That system is beginning to eject and will move rapidly N/NE, possibly right in time to connect with the frontal system.

Impacts: Light overrunning rain will overspread the state late Saturday night and early Sunday morning and become more showery and maybe even stop for a time Sunday morning.  Steadier and much heavier rain will arrive by midday Sunday west and mid afternoon east.  Rain will then fall heavy or very heavy at times the rest of the day Sunday and begin tapering off around midnight Sunday night west and in the predawn hours East.  Showers will linger for about 6 to 9 hours after that.

Rainfall totals of at least 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible.  At this point, it is still impossible to pinpoint who will get the heaviest totals and if they will fall in our state.  But it will rain, and a lot.

Wind gusts to 40-50 MPH are likely, just using the most conservative solutions.  For now, I'll go with this, because winds are not the easiest thing to predict and it is a lot more prudent to start low and go higher with time than to hype, send everyone into a panic, and then lower expectations.  Needless to say, even the winds I am forecasting could produce some damage... higher than that and we'd be talking power outages and possible destruction.

Stay tuned to SCW for updates on this potential strong, memorable storm.

Further out into the long term: Tuesday and Wednesday look fair with at or below normal temperatures, with highs around 60 Tuesday and in the mid 50s Wednesday.  Halloween night will be rather chilly for Trick or Treaters, and most of the state could see at or below freezing temperatures Wednesday morning! A cold front will combine with some overrunning moisture and produce mostly light rain for the area later Wednesday into Thursday morning.  High temperatures statewide should be within a few degrees of 60.  Cooler weather would be expected thereafter.  

The long range looks to continue to see its ups and downs with regards to temperature.  Something that is not to atypical for this time of year, we should see a battle of two ridges: one near Alaska and one over the Southeastern United States.  The former typically brings cold air our way, while the latter would bring warm air.  As time progresses, if the Alaskan Ridge stays intact, it generally tends to win that battle as we head into winter.  Some model guidance wants to bring the first accumulating snow to the state November 5 to 6, but this is too far out to do anything but just look at for now.

Now, let's take a look at some weather systems to affect our area this upcoming week.  I'll show you a map of Sunday's system and then a map of the Thursday morning frontal passage.  This map is the GFS version of the system and this is probably the weakest piece of guidance available right now! Even with that being said, look at how strong the low is right over Hartford.  Also look at the tropical moisture available!

Finally, let's take a look at the minor system for later Wednesday into Thursday.  On this map, we can see the light rain associated with a cold front and overrunning precipitation.  It is not a significant event, but should provide a period of light, steady rain to the area.

That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week and weekend!

​-GP!

Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

As Don mentioned yesterday, we’ve got an impressive storm system approaching the region for tomorrow into Wednesday. A strong cold front will slowly move across the region, bringing an end to both the warmth and dryness that we’ve seen over the past several weeks. To set the stage, here’s a look at the evolution of the upper air pattern over the next couple of days.

As you can see, we’ve currently got a strong ridge over the eastern seaboard(the source of our near record warm temperatures over the past several days) while a trough is developing to our west in the midwest and plains states. Over the next day or so, that trough strengthens to anomalously strong levels and slowly begins to move east, pushing the ridge out. In the process, a strong gradient between the ridge and the trough is realized, promoting instability across New England. Combine this with a strong lower level jet coming up from the tropics and the ingredients are all there for a period of heavy rain and strong winds from Tuesday through Wednesday.

Let’s look at the rain first. The combination of a slow moving system and an anomalously wet airmass (meaning precipitation rates will be impressive) will promote the possibility of some flash flooding across the state for areas where stronger cells develop. As such, flash flood watches have been issued for Litchfield and Hartford counties where model guidance targets as being the most likely to see stronger banding, however, I would not be surprised to see those watches expanded in the overnight package.

Total precipitation amounts look to be in the 1.5-2.5” range across most of the state. There will be a definite maximum towards the western end of the extent of heavy rain, where exactly that is depends on the progress of the trough and where it is eventually stalled out. Areas to the west of that eventual stall position will see comparatively little rain as there will not be sufficient time to rack up the big totals compared to those areas further east. While I think that dividing line will be west of the state, it’s worth noting that some models(most notably the canadian) have that line in our western zones. We’ll keep an eye on the trends and will update if the picture becomes clearer.

Here’s a look at total precipitation from the GFS, NAM and Canadian.

Strong winds are also a threat with this system due to the strong LLJ, with gusts up to the 50 MPH range possible in the stronger cells. To cover this, a wind advisory has been posted for the entire state(except northern Fairfield and New Haven counties, which should be included in my opinion) for tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday morning. There is also some convective threat, with strong winds and a very isolated chance of a tornado possible, causing the SPC to issue a slight risk for the western half of the state and a marginal risk for the eastern half.

As far as a timeline goes, look for light rain to move into the state tomorrow morning and last throughout much of the day tomorrow. The bulk of the precipitation along with the strongest winds will come after dark tomorrow night and last through Wednesday morning before tapering to scattered showers later on Wednesday. Should be mostly dry by Thursday morning aside from perhaps a residual shower or two. Here's a simulated radar from the NAM showing the systems modeled progression.

Behind the system, it looks like the unsettled period continues, with seasonable to above normal temperatures through the end of the week before another potential system arrives for later next weekend or early next week. More on that in due time!

Stay dry and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA

​Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
It is another beautiful day in Connecticut, with crisp morning conditions and mostly clear skies. Enjoy today, because the week ahead looks mostly unsettled with a seesaw in temperatures.
 
Today
Yesterday was a near record warm day, with highs in the low 80s in central Connecticut! Today looks beautiful and warm, but slightly “cooler”. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s inland with maybe a spot 80, with most of the shoreline a few degrees cooler. It’s a great day to get out to a park. 

​Monday
Tomorrow is a bit of a transition day, with Connecticut mostly dry and slightly cooler, but dealing with increasing clouds and a little humidity as a strong cold front advances. I won’t rule out a chance of showers, but I think the rain doesn’t begin until early Tuesday.
 
Tuesday-Wednesday
Breaking the monotony of warm and dry, a strong cold front starts moving through the region by Tuesday. This will be a potent and slow moving event, and I currently believe that this may be a significant one for Connecticut. 

​Essentially, a deep trough to our west will put us under the influence of a strong southerly low level jet and high moisture content. This will serve to provide us with periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Overall, I expect winds that could gust over 40 mph, which could cause some problems, and rainfall totals of 1.5” to 3” with some areas potentially going higher than that. Expect the highest winds in some of the heavier rain/thunderstorms. 

​Thursday
Thursday starts off a bit unsettled as the cold front remains slow to fully push off, but we should see clearing as the day progresses. We start getting a look of fall, with more seasonable temperatures.
 
Friday-Saturday
Currently, Friday and Saturday look great, with sunny skies and seasonable conditions. It should be a nice start to the next weekend! I am currently hedging lower on temperatures, but we could be seeing temperatures warmer than normal again. Either way, we’ll be watching another cold front to the west to see how strong it is and whether we see a taste of fall or winter as we roll into November. 

The Dailies
Sunday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the low 70s at the shore and mid to upper 70s inland. 

Monday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers late. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Rainy and windy conditions. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain may be heavy at times. Chance of rain 90%. 

Wednesday: Rainy and windy conditions. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain may be heavy at times. Chance of rain 90%. 

Thursday: Chance of showers early giving way to clearing conditions. Cooler. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 30%. 
 
Friday: Mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s.  

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​- DB

As it is, we are running late in our annual transition of seasons.  However, a true taste of Autumn has finally arrived, with colder locations falling well below freezing this morning.  Although this week will be mostly mild, the transition of the pattern is finally underway, and by 6 to 10 days from now, a true fall pattern will become established across our area.

Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from Texas to right about NYC.  Since the majority of this high pressure is south of the area, this cool spell will not last long.

Tonight: There should be a wide range in temperatures tonight, with radiational cooling in the favored spots.  Low temperatures should range from the low 30s to the low 40s.

Tomorrow: Sunshine should allow temperatures to reach 70 or a little above.  Really not much else to say.

Tomorrow Night/Thu: Nothing but sun and a degree or two warmer than Wednesday .  Maybe 70 to 75 statewide.  Again, not really a whole lot to say.

Long Term: The weekend and beyond:  A generally calm weekend is in store, with pleasant temperatures.  Other than get out and enjoy it, there really isn't much I can say.  Highs should be around 70 Friday and Saturday, and then 70 to 75 Sunday, as a warmer SW flow establishes itself well ahead of an approaching cold front.

Clouds increase on Monday ahead of this system.  I'll keep Monday dry, as it looks like precipitation holds off until Tuesday.  But with the increased clouds, temperatures are probably a couple degrees lower on Monday: near 70, except upper 60s in the NW hills and along the S coast, where onshore flow will result in cooler temperatures.

On Tuesday, a strong cold front approaches (this is one of another in a series of cold fronts that accelerates our pattern change).  This front will likely bring periods of showers and perhaps even imbedded thunderstorms to the area.  Precipitation could be locally heavy, as precipitable waters rise and overall motion is slow.  With rain falling much of the time, expect fairly uniform highs in the mid to upper 60s.  It could even get a bit muggy ahead of the front!

Beyond that, we look to get into an extended period of at or below normal temperatures.  That is not to say that every single day will be below normal.  If a strong cold front slowly approaches, it could even go much above normal for a day ahead of the front.  However, the majority of days should turn out to be at or below normal, as the new pattern we'll be entering favors cold in the east.

Now, let's take a look at the upcoming weather events to affect our region, in map format.  All the action, so to speak, is in the long range, so this is where we'll focus.  The first map shows the frontal rains on Tuesday.  

You can see there are two main areas of rain at this time frame.  One has already moved through.  The other is over the Great Lakes, near the surface low.  This may swing through later in the sequence.  This slug of rain will determine who gets heavy rain vs. who just gets showers.

Next, let's look at the Climate Prediction Center's analysis of the upper air pattern 11 days from now.  You can see on this map that there is blocking over the Atlantic, a ridge over the west, and this forces the cold air over the Eastern United States.

​

Anyway, that's all for now... have a great rest of your week!

​-GP!