​Current Setup
A deep trough extends down the Ohio Valley, and a strong upper level jet exists just off the coast of Rhode Island. Behind this trough is a very strong ridge, extending over the western portion of the country. A small, developed low exists over Ohio and is translating east. This low will be our weather-maker for tomorrow, but is expected to weaken and pass over us quickly.

(500 mb heights indicate the trough over the Ohio Valley)

(300 mb jet located off the east coast of New England)

Tonight – Monday
For tonight, low level stratus clouds have formed thanks to the upper level jet off the east coast. This strong level jet is advecting southerly air at high altitudes, which is overrunning the cold, dense air at the surface and producing these low level clouds. At the surface a predominant westerly flow exists, which is transporting cool Canadian air to the region. Temperatures tonight should stay a few degrees warmer in response to the presence of clouds above.
Low pressure at 1002 mb, according to models, will weaken as it approaches Connecticut. This is due to the terrain blocking feature of the Appalachians, which will disrupt the precipitation bands ahead of the warm front of this system. Also weak warm and cold advection at 850 mb and dry air entrainment doesn’t do this system any favors. For Monday, expect showers and some pockets of rain to pass through early for your commute. Any rogue showers behind the passing of this frontal system will move out by the afternoon, and clouds should loosen by the late afternoon and evening. Tomorrow will be breezy following the end of the rain, so even though temperatures will be in the mid 50s, a jacket would be advised to account for a chilly wind.

(NAM 12km model for tonight through Monday morning)

​Tuesday – Wednesday
A strong ridge will build in Tuesday, with high pressure to our south east. Clockwise surface flow will advect warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50s and low 60s for the state. Besides afternoon cumulus to develop, these two days will be mostly sunny with light winds. Building clouds Wednesday night will make for a slightly warmer night, which is good news for everyone going trick 'or' treating! Temperatures will be in the lower 50s, so it would be a good idea to take a coat out with your costumes just in case.

Saturday-Sunday
Saturday morning there might be some lingering showers, otherwise improving conditions are expected with a return to cooler weather. Dry air from Canada and improving skies will keep temperatures in the upper 50s. Sunday looks to be better with sunnier skies as high pressure looks to keep us dry for the start of next week.






Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather and enjoy your evening!!
​-LD

Good evening from SCW. 

This is just a brief post on the weekend ahead, since we've had a lot of questions and comments on it. The last weekend of October is going to be stormy, with a coastal storm taking shape off the southeast coast as I type. Rain has begun to overspread the Mid-Atlantic and will be approaching during the overnight hours. 

Above is a surface map analyzing surface pressure in the southeast. You can see two lobes of energy, but it's the energy off the SC and GA coast that will be the dominant feature through the weekend. 

Current Watches/Warnings
There are a number of NWS headlines up for CT. 

Wind
A Wind Advisory is up for coastal Connecticut and northern Litchfield County. While we do not expect widespread power outages due to wind, we expect maximum wind gusts of 20-40mph inland and maybe some isolated gusts to 50mph in coastal CT, especially SE CT. We've seen worse, but for those areas at the shore prone to power outages during any type of storm this could be one of those times you see your power flicker. 

Rain
A Flash Flood Watch is up for the southern four Connecticut counties. Statewide, I think 1-2" of rain over the weekend is a reasonable expectation, with some isolated spots going a bit higher depending on where the heaviest rain echoes set up. 

Coastal Flooding 
A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for coastal New Haven and Fairfield counties. Tides are expected to run 2.5 to 3.5 feet above astronomical tides Saturday afternoon, bringing moderate to localized major coastal flooding. Some additional minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide Saturday night and Sunday morning. For the eastern CT shoreline, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for 2 to 2.5 feet of water rise. 

Timing
Rain will begin in earnest in southern Connecticut during the early morning hours. By sunrise, rain should have overspread the state. It will be a washout, with the heavier rain tapering off by Saturday evening. Rain showers are possible on Sunday, but it does not look like a particularly wet day. 

Wintry Precipitation Potential 
As we have said through the week, the story of this storm is the rain and wind. However, as SA mentioned in his forecast, we are watching the potential for a brief wintry mix in the hills of northern CT, particularly NW CT, tomorrow morning. Any accumulation, if any, would be light and get washed away quickly by the cold rain over the course of the day. Regardless, it will be a cold and raw day with highs in the 40s and feeling colder with the wind. 

Overall, we have to deal with a cold and wet weekend as the result of a coastal storm. The storm is potent, but not as strong as what some of the guidance signaled more than a week ago. Hopefully Sunday is salvageable! 

​As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

Good evening to you from SCW!

Cool and crisp conditions are ruling the day today across most of Connecticut, with temps generally a few degrees on either side of 50. For the rest of the workweek, expect similar weather, but the first coastal storm of the season comes in for the weekend and will bring some rain to the area.

Thursday-Friday

Cool and calm weather is expected for the end of the workweek as high pressure moves across the area. Highs should be in the upper 40s to around 50 on both Thursday and Friday, with mostly sunny skies expected throughout the period. The growing season has ended for most areas of the state, but for those areas where it has not, I expect a freeze Thursday evening to end it aside from possibly the immediate shoreline. Lows will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s across the state, with the usual radiators seeing the lowest readings on Friday morning.

Here's a look at forecast lows Friday morning from the NAM - I'd shave a few degrees off of these in the usual radiating spots.

Saturday-Sunday
The general idea of a nor-easter from earlier in the week looks to be proving correct for the weekend. The main difference that we’re seeing is that the timing has sped up, and this now looks to be more of a Saturday event. Low pressure tracks northeast along the coastline early Saturday morning, spreading precipitation into the area by the early morning hours. The GFS and Euro now bring precip in by early Saturday morning (as early as 2-3 AM in the southwest corner of the state) as opposed to holding off until later in the day or even Sunday morning as was shown on some of the earlier runs. While some models earlier in the week were showing a chance of a bit of frozen precipitation to start, I am expecting this to be a rain event for the state, with the only exception possibly being in the northwest and northeast hills where some flurries and perhaps a slushy coating of snow could start us off, however it will be quickly washed away as warm air moves in and pushes surface temps above freezing. Unfortunately, it looks like most of Saturday will be a washout; the heaviest rain should be from mid-morning through mid-afternoon and we could see some drying by the evening hours, but in general I wouldn’t plan on Saturday being a day for outdoor activities or yardwork. Precipitation amounts look somewhere between three quarters of an inch and an inch and half, with most areas probably being towards the lower end and a few lucky spots hitting the jackpot if they end up in some heavier bands. Temps will be below normal with daytime highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Sunday, expect some lingering showers (especially in the morning hours), otherwise, we should see mostly cloudy skies throughout the day with perhaps a peek or two of sunshine late in the day. Temps should be in the mid to upper 50s.

Here's a look at the system on the GFS.

Monday-Wednesday
Unsettled weather continues into next week as guidance brings a follow-up system through; the Euro keeps it much weaker and only brings showers to the area, while the GFS develops another coastal system and results in more widespread rain with another half an inch or so of liquid. Current timing on both models looks like late Monday into early Tuesday, so for now I will carry high chance pops for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning and we can reassess this system in a couple of days as the guidance becomes clearer. High pressure moves back in by midweek, bringing generally clear skies and continued below normal temps.

The Dailies

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday: Rain, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of rain late, otherwise, increasingly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain early, otherwise, clearing, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
​
Have a great evening and thank you for reading SCW!
​-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

The weekend was pretty nice, with some minor showers on Saturday followed by clearing and a nice but brisk Sunday. The week ahead looks mostly quiet, with the big stories being the chilly conditions, particularly during the latter half of the week, and the potential of a weekend nor'easter which could bring heavy rain and wind. 

Late Sunday-Monday
Tonight high pressure moves into the region and the windy conditions we've seen will subside. Combined with clear conditions, that will create radiational cooling that should allow most locations in Connecticut to drop below freezing. Because the growing season has ended with our freeze a few days ago, we do not have freeze headlines posted. Morning temperatures will bottom out in the 20s to low 30s, and the start to the work week looks nice, with temperatures rebounding to the low to mid 50s. 

By Monday evening, we see a weak system begin to push into New England, that will be our weather maker for Tuesday. Monday night and Tuesday morning should not be as cold as tonight. 

Tuesday
Tuesday does not look like a washout by any stretch, but showers are possible as that weak system pushes through the region. Most of the day looks dry, and we may even see some periods of clouds and sun. Tuesday also looks to be the warmest day of the work week, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. 

Above is a high resolution NAM depiction of Tuesday's showers. Not a whole lot of activity and even this may be overdone. Overall, Tuesday is anything but a washout or wet day.

Wednesday-Friday
We go back to seasonably chilly on Wednesday, and then back into well below normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough and high pressure dominate the region. We will see cold beginning to funnel in from Canada. Wednesday's highs should be in the upper 40s to low 50s. It will feel colder with breezy conditions. 

Thursday may be the coldest day of the season so far, with highs in the 40s. Thursday night and Friday morning are poised to be cold as well, with the potential for lows in the 20s across the state with the exception of the shoreline. 

Friday should be well below normal as well, but temperatures will try to moderate a bit and highs may be closer to 50. 

Above is the 500mb height depiction for later this week. With this kind of trough in the east, we should see excellent delivery of cold air from Canada. That is reflected in the surface depiction below, also on Thursday, when we are expecting highs in the 40s and wind chills in the 30s statewide. It will feel like winter. 

The Weekend
I'm going to go ahead and declare this an SCW period of interest. We have been hinting at this for days, and although we're still a ways out, we're close enough to start taking a serious look. Saturday looks to start out fine, with chilly but clear conditions. As the day progresses however, we should see increasing clouds with rain late Saturday through Sunday or Sunday into Monday.

There is still a split in the guidance on the timing, intensity, and Connecticut impact of any potential storm. With that in mind, this is worth watching future forecasts as we hone in on what will happen. Currently however, this looks like a rain event, with heavy rain and strong winds possible depending on the track and strength of the low. The guidance has leaned toward a strong storm, so we will be watching closely. 

Rather than look at operational guidance that is only one run of one model, let's look at the European Ensembles (above) which provides us with a better sense of the potential spread in a forecast. Here, you'll see the Friday through early Monday period. The guidance overall has been consistent in developing a system in the south that moves northeast next weekend. In addition, you can also see an attempt at "phasing" from some Canadian energy from northwest. Any wintry precipitation with a coming storm looks unlikely at this point, but if this were winter...

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and seasonably cool. Morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cool. Breezy. Highs in the upper 40s (hill towns) to mid 50s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

Friday: Partly cloudy and cold. Morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.  

Saturday: SCW period of interest. Increasing clouds and rain chances late. Chance of rain 40%. 

Sunday: SCW period of interest. Rainy and windy. Chance of rain 60%. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

​Good Afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Yesterday we had our first taste of cold weather for the season, with temperatures dropping down into the low 30s for much of the state! A cold weather pattern is swingingin for most of the week from Canada, and we will see the chance for spotty rain showers, and even the slight possibility for flurries in the Litchfield hills.
 
 
 
Current Setup
 
A low pressure system lies over Southern Canada, and a warm front extends east across Northern New England. An amplifying upper level jet at 250 mb will strengthen this system, but pull it northeast and away from New England for Saturday. Following the passage of this system, a major dip in the jet stream will advect cold, dry air down from Canada. This will dictate our weather for next week mainly, with temperatures staying below average and cool. This northwest flow will remain until next weekend, where we will see a building ridge and a chance for temperatures to climb to seasonal again.
 

(500 mb heights show a dip in the jet stream over New England which dictates our weather for the majority of the upcoming week)


Friday
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic moves offshore, and daytime heating will keep temperatures around seasonal. By tonight clouds will build in ahead of the approaching cold front from the associated low in Canada.
 
Saturday
A cold front approaches from the west, and scattered showers will pass through during the day tomorrow. Following the passage of the cold front, a secondary weaker front will pass through and begin our cold weather for the week. Temperatures should climb to the low 60s, but plunge overnight following the passage of the secondary front.

(NAM output of the passing showers that come through Saturday morning)


​Sunday
A northwesterly flow and high pressure building to our south will make for brisk temperatures and some windy conditions for Sunday. With this weather pattern in place, afternoon flurries and snow showers are common for upstate NY, particularly in the mountains. Now depending on how far southeast these scattered snow showers come, I cannot completely rule out passing flurries or isolated snow showers for the extreme northwestern portion of the state. It is a slight chance we could see the first flakes of the season, but I wouldn’t bet everything on it. Temperatures will be below seasonal in the upper 40s, and skies will improve throughout the day.
 
Monday – Tuesday
 
Monday looks cool, with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Afternoon clouds may develop and move through, but besides that expect a mostly sunny day. Tuesday though is more interesting. A weak clipper system looks to pass through, and with temperatures in the 50s, the chance for snow is ruled out. But, there will be a chance for an afternoon passing shower.
 
Wednesday – Friday
An upper level ridge and the building of high pressure will make for a nice end to the work week. Temperatures will remain cool in the upper 40s and lower 50s for this time, and by Friday the northwesterly flow that will have dominated our weather will move out, and be replaced with a more zonal flow.
 
 
The Dailies
 
Friday: Sunny becoming cloudy. Highs in the 50s.
 
Saturday: Cloudy. Chance for showers 50%. Highs in the lower 60s.
 
Sunday: Cloudy becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Breezy. 
 
Monday: Cool. Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with afternoon clouds and a passing shower. Highs in the 50s.
 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
 
Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
 
 
Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather and enjoy the rest of your day!
 
-LD