Disc: A strong cold front will move through the region tonight.  This front will be accompanied by rounds of showers.  Around midnight or so, a very strong line of storms will move through the region. Along and behind this line, winds could gust in excess of 40 MPH.

Currently: Cold front located near Columbus, OH, with low pressure attached to it. This will be the focal point for our weather tonight.

Tonight: Not sure how many tricks vs treats there will be with this forecast, but we'll try to be correct! Much warmer and wetter than normal! When the ghoulish line of storms passes through, winds will howl and witches will go flying on their brooms! Most of the severe weather should stay off to our west.  However, winds will still be strong and gusty along and behind the cold frontal passage, as winds could gust to 40 MPH and higher at times.  Much of the state is under wind advisories or high wind warnings.  Consult products from your local NWS Office.  I'm going to go 5 degrees or so below all guidance, because guidance has been running at least 5 degrees too warm behind the frontal passage all along this storm.  So daybreak temperatures should be in the mid 40s, with a few low 40s in the NW hills.

Tomorrow: A much more fall-like regime sets in. Guidance is in pretty good agreement, so generally followed.  Expect high temperatures in the upper 50s, with a gusty breeze.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: The biggest question mark for Saturday will be cloud cover.  A cold front goes through, but it's a weak front, and there really is very little moisture to work with.  Yet it also doesn't take much to spark a band of mid or high level clouds this time of year.  If we get clouds, temperatures would be 5 to 7 degrees colder than currently forecast.  This is reflected in the difference between the NAM and GFS guidance.  I have not gone as low as the NAM, because the NAM goes fully overcast, and I do not believe that will happen.  However, the mosunny/sunny advertised by the GFS is probably too optimistic.  So I'll split the difference and go for highs near 50.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): Expect a largely quiet long term period with generally moderating temperatures.  Other than a few sprinkles Tuesday night or early Wednesday, the period should generally be precipitation-free.  It should be noted that any locations that did not yet have their first freeze probably will by Monday morning.

As far as temperatures through the long term, from Sunday through Tuesday, I generally went close to guidance, which means temperatures should warm a few degrees each day- low 50s Sunday, mid 50s Monday, and mid to upper 50s Tuesday.  Then on Wednesday, I went 3 to 5 degrees below guidance, and a couple degrees below guidance for Thursday.  This is in deference to cold air advection not being picked up properly by models at this lead time.  This yields highs in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday, and only in the mid to upper 40s on Thursday!

It should be noted that just outside of our long term, in the Friday to Saturday (11/8-9) time frame. there is a potential storm system tracking somewhere near the eastern seaboard.  There could be the potential for some frozen precipitation with this system.  Obviously, this time of year, climatology favors the NW Hills, but stay tuned!

Looking further into the long range, it looks like we could see a very cold shot after the 11/8-9 storm threat.  Beyond that, temperatures generally moderate.  After all, it is November, not January! However, there is also VERY Cold air in the long range just north of the Canadian border.  Looking at positioning of that air mass and atmospheric teleconnections, I wouldn't be surprised if some of that cold air breaks off before Thanksgiving!

Now, let's take a look at some weather systems slated to affect the region during this time frame.  We'll do something a little different this time, given that the pattern is not so active.  I'll post tonight's cold front and then a "pattern map" for some insight into the long range.  On this map, you can see the frontal rains crossing the Delaware River and headed for the area.  This will be the "wild" part of the night!
​

The next map is the GFS ensemble package, valid November 10.  Look at the cold air over the region and note the ridging over Alaska! A sampling of the analog years leads me to believe there are cold times ahead!

​

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

It was a wet Sunday, and representative of what has ended up being a stormy October. The theme will continue through the last week of the month, as we see multiple chances of rain this week. 

Monday
The rain has cleared out but clouds will take a little longer. Monday looks like a decent day, as cloudy conditions to start will give way to warmer temperatures and sunshine. Monday looks like one of the few days this week with no rain chances. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
Guidance has shifted toward a weak system bringing shower chances on Tuesday and possibly into early Wednesday, but it doesn't look like a washout by any means. While Tuesday looks seasonable temperature wise with clouds and showers, especially later in the day and evening, Wednesday is looking nicer, with some brief clearing possible during the day and warming temperatures. That brings us to the most uncertain part of the forecast, Halloween. 

Thursday-Friday
The last day of October and the first day of November are looking stormy. There are still a lot of details that need to be resolved, especially the timing, but a big storm is expected to develop out in the Midwest and move to the northwest of the region.

Here's what we do know: we are expecting a period of moderate to heavy rain again, with breezy conditions. Trick or Treating isn't a lost cause yet...but things are not looking good as we currently expect rain Thursday afternoon into at least early Friday. The best hope for the little ones is a delay in the onset of the heaviest rain until late on Thursday. Temperatures are likely to end up in the 60s.  

Saturday-Sunday
Early indications are that the weekend will be very nice in the wake of the storm. A cold front will pass, and that will clear things out. The first weekend of November is looking sunny and cooler with highs in the 50s. ​

The Dailies 
Monday: Cloudy early with decreasing clouds over the course of the day. Highs in the low 60s. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy early with a few breaks possible. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.  

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 60%
 
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, followed by a gradual decrease in clouds. Highs in the low 60s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

Disc: Major storm system will wind down across the region.  The rain is done, aside from some showers rotating around the upper level low, and winds, which will be very strong this afternoon, will diminish once the sun goes down.

Currently: Very strong low analyzed over the NH/VT border near Bennington, VT.  High pressure behind the low extends from Southern Missouri to Hudson Bay.  The gradient between these two systems and daytime heating is combining to produce very strong winds.  This will continue until around sunset.  In addition, an upper level low that the nor'easter left behind is producing showers, mostly across the NW hills, which will also diminish with the setting sun.

Tonight: Because I do not expect much clearing, I'll go with the warmer GFS MOS.  In addition, without much clearing and still breezy conditions lingering, temperatures should be pretty uniform across the state, with lows in the upper 40s.

Tomorrow: Conversely, for tomorrow, as we will still have some cold air advection, I'll go with the cooler NAM guidance.  The GFS MOS performed horribly during the daylight hours today and with much of the same air mass in place tomorrow, I don't expect too much of a change.  So expect highs only in the mid to upper 50s.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Some areas in the NW Hills could see their first freeze tomorrow night.  Refer to products from NWS BOX and ALY regarding freeze products.  On Saturday, high pressure moves overhead.  With cold air advection ceasing, I'll go closer to the GFS MOS, but hedge a degree or two colder in deference to the NAM and the cool start.  So expect highs generally within a few degrees of 60 most places, but mid 50s in the NW hills.

Long Term (Sunday and beyond): Sunday could be a little bit interesting.  Current NHC guidance is in very good agreement with the GFS regarding the track of TD 16/future NESTOR.  Taking that track, it would pass harmlessly south of the region, with the only effects being high clouds along the south coast.  However, this all depends on the position of the high pressure system and it would not take a huge adjustment to bring the storm close enough to at least brush the south coast with some rain.  For now, I will take the course of least regret and not call for any significant effects in our state.  The NAM brings precipitation to the southern half of CT, but that model has done very poorly at that range for quite a while.  For now, I'll go 90% GFS with this forecast and maybe just bring the cloud shield a bit further north, since systems generally tend to be a bit north of progged.  With this in mind, I'll shade temperatures a tad below guidance and go with low 60s for highs.

Monday should be a bit of a break between whatever happens with Nestor's remnants and an approaching storm system/cold front.  Expect a generally fair day.  On a day like that, with no extenuating circumstances, there generally isn't a good reason not to just follow guidance.  So that's what I did, and I expect temperatures to range between 60 and 65 for highs.

On Tuesday, a cold front will approach, along with a low tracking into the Lakes.  For now, this system looks more well-behaved than the last one, i.e. I am not expecting a bombing secondary low.  So we'll go with a more traditional cold frontal passage for now, with a quick shot of heavy rain accompanying the cold front.  This is a strong cold front, so the chance of thunderstorms is not zero.  However, being that it's getting into late October and temperatures are not expected to be super warm, I am going to exclude them from the forecast at this time.  I am going to take a risk here and go well below guidance (5-8 degrees) for high temperatures on Tuesday.  I am using yesterday as a reference point.  Despite southerly winds at the start of the storm yesterday, low dew points halted any temperature rise as the rain began to fall heavily and guidance busted badly.  That part of the Tuesday system could turn out to be similar, especially given two factors 1) precipitation moves in during the heating of the day, and 2) for locations south of the Merritt Parkway, a southerly wind blows off the cool Long Island Sound.  Given all this, I'll only call for highs near 60 on Tuesday.

Wednesday should clear out behind the front and it should become a bit windy, though not near as windy as today- maybe max gusts around 35 MPH.  With cold air advection, which the GFS seems to think is a unicorn, I'm going to go 5 degrees below that guidance for Wednesday's highs, in deference to what's happening today, and call for highs in the mid 50s.

With high pressure moving overhead on Thursday, guidance temperatures seem a little closer to reality.  Still though, because of a low launching point, I lowered guidance temperatures a couple degrees.  So expect highs within a few degrees of 60.  

A quick note on the next system beyond Thursday... it appears a cold frontal passage is set for Friday.  Once again, at least for the time being, it appears that it will be more of a traditional cold front, with a quick shot of moderate to heavy rain, and then clearing.  However, it should be noted that this is going to be a stronger cold front than what we have been seeing recently and with the crashing thermal profiles behind that front, I would not be surprised at all if places north of I 84 see some sleet pellets mix in as precipitation ends.

Looking further out into the long range, again with such an active pattern right now, I haven't dedicated much time to this, but it looks like a mean trough is about to set up shop across the Eastern CONUS with blocking up north.  This translates into a cold, active pattern in fall and winter, so stay tuned!

Now, let's take a look at systems expected to affect the area in the coming week.  First, I'll post the GFS as it shows the future Nestor's closest approach.  This is the preferred solution at this time.  On this image, Nestor's remnants are located near Cape Hatteras, and from there, headed NE, out to sea.  You can see if that high pressure was a bit NW of progged, the storm would be forced farther north.  It's NOT the forecast right now- just something to keep an eye on! 

The next image is Tuesday's cold frontal passage.  Notice there is a weak wave of low pressure near Montauk.  For now, we'll just call it as we see it and call that nothing more than a rainfall enhancer.  However, it's also something to keep an eye on, just in case it strengthens more than progged.

That's all for now! See you again next week!

​-GP!

Disc: This forecast will be quite different from many you have been reading the past few days.  It now appears there will be very minor effects from this coastal storm west of I-91.  New London County may very well still get a decent storm, but the rest of the state, especially west of I 91, should see very little.

Currently: Low pressure analyzed fairly far east of the benchmark.  High pressure extends from Quebec and New Brunswick, Canada, down into Central PA.  It is that little extension of the high pressure down into PA that is killing the chances of this nor'easter extending further west.  Synoptically, that is not where you want high pressure to get a big storm, especially not for western New England.

Tonight: We'll divide tonight's forecast into three groups: Western CT, I 91 corridor and nearby locales, and Eastern CT.  For Western CT, other than a rogue light shower, expect no precipitation tonight.  For the I 91 corridor, a period of light rain will continue for the first half of the night.  For Eastern CT, rain will fall heavy at times the first half of the night, then conditions should improve.  Even out here, I'll improve the weather tonight and make tomorrow dry.  See below.  As for temperatures, I am going to go with the warmer guidance and maybe even a degree or two warmer than that.  Here is the reasoning: for the Western half of the state, no rain is falling and the MOS is "falsely cooled" by falling rain.  In Eastern CT, skies will be cloudy and after the rain ends, temperatures will likely rise a couple degrees and then not fall much with a cloudy night.  This results in going warmer than guidance nearly everywhere.  Low temperatures should range from the upper 40s to near 50- fairly uniform and with no real "cool areas" or "warm areas".  Winds will also be an issue for parts of the area.  Expect gusts up to 50 MPH in SE CT, closer to the sfc low.  For the rest of southern CT, expect gusts from 35 to 45 MPH, highest east.  Winds could also gust to 35 MPH in NE CT.  The NW Hills should see little impact at all from winds.

Tomorrow: With that high pressure continuing to nose in and low pressure already well east of progged, the low will continue to drift slowly further east.  With that in mind, I have pulled all precipitation out of the state tomorrow.  Winds will slowly diminish in E CT as well.  Despite the fact that it won't rain, models are "cloudier" for tomorrow.  I can buy this, as the low pressure system will be stacking and getting larger in geographic size.  So we could see a very cloudy day tomorrow.  For that reason, tomorrow will be chilly.  I'll go close to the cooler guidance for highs tomorrow, and those highs should range 55 to 60.

Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Skies should gradually clear as the low pulls further away,  I feel models are too cloudy, so I'll go warmer than guidance for Saturday's highs.  Highs should range 60 to 65.  In fact, if clouds leave earlier than expected, which is a distinct possibility in this forecaster's opinion, some portions of the CT valley may exceed 65 degrees.  The air mass aloft is really not all that cold, and the cool temperatures have been caused more by clouds, rain, and NE flow with the offshore low than because of an exceptionally cold air mass,

Long term (Sunday and beyond): Some changes will be necessary for the beginning of the long term period (Sunday) as well, as a result of the faster flow.  Because the coastal low will be long gone by Sunday, the cold front that goes through late in the day will be more potent.  When there is a low offshore and a front approaching, there is an area of subsidence between the coastal low and the frontal precipitation, where you are too far west for the coastal low's precipitation, but the frontal precipitation weakens as it begins to absorb the coastal low.  Originally, our area was progged to be in this area.  However, with the coastal low now further east than originally forecast, the frontal precipitation will likely remain intact.  This results in significant changes to Sunday's forecast.  I have made the day much cloudier, as clouds will increase ahead of the front.  Frontal precipitation should arrive around dinner time in western sections and around 9 PM eastern sections.  It should last until around midnight in the west and 3 AM in the east.  In fact, there could be a period of very heavy rainfall associated with this front.  There's even a slight chance of thunderstorms, especially in western CT.  With clouds arriving, temperatures will also be lower than expected originally.  I went a couple degrees below current guidance, to try and "catch up" to current trends.  High temperatures should generally be in the mid 60s.

Monday and Tuesday should feature fair weather.  The full effects of the cold air advection won't really be felt until Tuesday.  Therefore Monday's temperatures will be warmer than Tuesday's, but I think the GFS guidance is 2-5 degrees too warm.  Therefore, look for highs in the mid to upper 60s on Monday and near 60 on Tuesday, except 60 to 65 in the CT valley.

The next frontal system that will cause precipitation in our area will be later on Wednesday.  Precipitation should overspread the state from west to east during the afternoon hours and end during the evening.  Once again, there are decent dynamics associated with this system, so there is a chance of thunderstorms as well.   Guidance looks reasonable from this far out, and only minor modifications were made.  Highs should generally be 60 to 65.

Expect fair weather Thursday behind the front.  Models typically do not pick up well on cold air advection in the longer ranges, and that could be happening here as well, so I went a couple degrees below guidance on Thursday.  Highs should be within a few degrees of 60.


I haven't had much time to look at the long range, with all the changes that were required to the short and medium ranges.  But from what I have seen, it appears that we will see weather very typical of "transition season" in Southern New England- that is to say that we will have warm days and cool shots, with rain marking our frontal passages.  In the coming weeks, I'll take more of a look into what the upcoming winter may hold.

Now, let's take a graphical look at systems that could affect the region.  I am going to show a map for Friday.  Even though I do not anticipate any precipitation to affect the state on Friday, I wanted to show the coastal low and where it's going to be.  You can see from this map that the low is now far enough offshore that only far Eastern New England gets any appreciable precipitation.  

​

Finally, let's take a look at the front expected to approach the region later on Sunday.  It is important to note the changes here, as this was originally progged to be a dry frontal passage.  Now, in the absence of the coastal storm, there is nothing to rob the moisture from the cold front, and we'll get an active frontal passage.

​

Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from SCW. 

Happy October! 

Today was a decent day despite the clouds, as we had warmer high temperatures to close out another nice weekend. The week ahead looks more unsettled than we've seen in a while, with rain chances on most days. We'll be watching an area of low pressure develop offshore and it could bring an extended period of breezy conditions and rain. 

At this time of year, the average high in the Hartford area is in the upper 60s, 67 to be exact today, with a low in the mid 40s, 44 to be exact today. As we move through October, these averages will continue to drop sharply along with the amount of sunlight we have!

​Typically, most of Connecticut receives its first freeze (temperatures 32 and below) this month. 

Image courtesy of NWS Gray. 

Monday
Tomorrow will start out quiet and dry, but a cold front will be approaching from the west. I expect a more potent passage, meaning that rain and breezy conditions will accompany this front. We might pick up a quick couple tenths of rain, and some spots may end up with a bit more. Rain is expected to arrive in the NW portion of the state by early afternoon and continue to overspread the state during the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Like most days this week, it'll be a good idea to grab an umbrella. 

Tuesday
Tuesday looks much better, as we clear out and high pressure builds in briefly. This is the only day where we do not have rain chances in the forecast during the daylight hours. Tuesday will be a little cooler than Monday, but not by much. 

The latest GFS, which is more robust and closer to the coast with a coastal low that is expected to develop by midweek. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression. 

Wednesday-Friday
The nice weather we see on Tuesday won't last. By Wednesday, an area of low pressure is expected to develop well offshore. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the details such as eventual track and strength, but with a strong high to the north and a strengthening low, I expect repeated periods of rain showers and breezy conditions. There could be some coastal flooding impacts as well. With a northeasterly wind and rain chances, high temperatures will be below normal for the period and struggle to reach the low 60s. 

The Euro, which is different from the GFS depiction, shows a low that is much further offshore, bringing us less wind and rain. There are a lot of details that still need to be worked out, but the bottom line is that a fairly potent October storm is likely to develop offshore, and will bring some minor to possibly moderate impacts to the state, especially coastal and eastern portions of the state. Stay tuned for additional updates.

Saturday-Sunday
As you can see with the European model image above, the offshore low is likely to linger through the weekend. As a result, rain shower chances will remain in the forecast, though we could see a front push through at some point late Saturday or Sunday that finally clears us out. Temperatures will remain near to below normal. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with rain showers during the afternoon and evening. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 80%

Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 60s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​