Disc: A two-part storm is unfolding across the area today, as the remnants of Hurricane Zeta bring heavy rain today, then a new coastal low brings rain switching to snow tomorrow.  Along the coast, no accumulations are expected, but some minor accumulations are expected in the interior, which I'll get to.

Currently: Remnants of Zeta were located over Southern VA.  A new upper level low was over the TN Valley.  That low will spawn a new coastal, which could spell some accumulating snow for the interior regions tomorrow.

Tonight: Generally just going to call it periods of rain.  There may be a brief break in the rain between 10 PM and 3 AM or something like that, but given the fact that the break is short and there could still be showers or drizzle inside the break, I don't feel it necessary to go too crazy with that.  The 1st rd of pcpn is Zeta, the 2nd round will be from a dvlpg coastal low.  I will not mention snow anywhere tngt, as nobody shud really chgovr bfr dawn.  Temperatures will be in the low 40s for most of the night.  This is close to guidance.

Tomorrow: Rain should begin to rapidly change to snow from N to S around dawn as cold air begins rushing in.  I believe it will snow all the way to the coast.  Even the coast may see a burst or two of heavy snow.  Hwvr, accums at the coast would be very unlikely.  At this time, thanks to good coord w/my cohorts, the genl thinking is that N of the Merritt Pkwy (then drawing a line E of the CT river along the same line) over an inch of snow is psbl w/the potential for 2-4" in far Nrn CT away from the valleys.  The most likely places to see the highest accums (i.e. 3-4") would be I 84 North over 500 feet and the rest of the state above 1000 ft.  Elevation helps this time of year.  Cold air will crash down from the upper levels .  This will help temps drop, and this is why I think sleet/snow mixes in to the coast, but does not accumulate, due to a warm sfc.  Further N, and most definitely at high elevations, where sfc temp will be lwr, this is a diff story.  Stay tuned for a snow map!  As for temps I'd like to imply steady or slowly falling thru the day, but it isn't that simple.  By day's end, temps will range from the upper 30s to near 40.  However, the correct temp curve will probably be more like a rapid drop after dawn until about noon.  Then temps recover a few degrees as precip pulls out.

For any areas that did not yet have a freeze, Saturday morning will do it.  Some areas along the S coast probably did not freeze yet.  So plan for an end to the growing season w/the end to October.  As for Sat's high temps, I followed guidance reasonably close, just went a degree or two higher in spots, with good amounts of sun expected.  Generally xpct highs in the mid to upper 40s

Long Term: This long term disco will be shorter than normal, both due to short term concerns and the fact that there isn't all that much going on in the long term.

First, for Sunday, we have good warm air advection, but also increasing clouds.  Combine that with temps that start out really cold, and it's a net -2 or so from temp guidance.  So I am going with highs of 50-55.  A strong cold front wl approach later in the day on Sun.  The combo of bad timing and little moisture w/the front means I don't expect a good deal of pcpn.  But there could be a quick sprinkle later Sun eve/Sun night.

Then very cold air rushes in for Mon and Tue.  There could even be a snow flurry, especially in the NW hills, as lake effect streamers come down.  Temps Tue morning should probably be even cooler than those of Sat, so there should be no reason to try and save your plants.  Followed close to guidance temps on Mon, so that's highs of 40-45.  Again went very close on Tue, maybe chopped a degree off here or there, so that's 40-45 again.  My reasoning for Tue is that there should be more cloud cover than what guidance is indicating.

Temps then moderate rapidly the rest of the week, as high pressure shifts offshore and ridging builds over the entire country.  I see no reason to deviate from guidance at all either day.  So xpct highs in the mid 50s Wed and around 60 Thu.  It is not inconceivable that someone along I 91 area gets to 65 Thu!

For the long range, the ridging over the majority of the country looks to prevail for at least 5-7 days.  Given the way models tend to rush pattern changes, figure ten days, so that takes us to mid-month.  After that, there are increasing signs that cold air in Canada will make a big push SE into our area.  So xpct a 5-10 day period of above to much above normal temps, before we return to below normal temps.

Now, let's take a look at systems slated to affect the area over the next week.  Since this first system is now, and there aren't really any significant systems, precipitation-wise, after tomorrow, I'll post tomorrow's coastal and then Tue morning's temps, to get an idea of how cold it is going to get.

Anyway, here is part two of our storm system: tomorrow morning's burst of snow.  It is that heavier precip S of LI that we're focused on for our potential burst of snow, as it moves north, through the state.

Now here are Tue's morning temps.  Keep in mind, this model generally runs several degrees too warm on overnight lows.  Even said that, the entire state is below freezing, and everyone north of the Merritt Pkwy is in the 20s!
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Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!

-GP!

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

After a mostly warm October, the last week of the month is looking sharply cooler and more active. The overall theme of the week will be wet and chilly, but could we be seeing some snowflakes by the end of the week? Let's dive in. 

Monday-Tuesday
As I mentioned above, the week ahead looks active. It's not necessarily a week-long washout, but we will have multiple impulses move toward the region. The first comes late tonight and through Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves offshore. This will bring mostly cloudy conditions (which will dominate the week) and some showers/drizzle over the course of the day. It will be a cool day, just like today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Showers will be off and on.  

As the first little low departs, there could be some residual cloudiness and showers on Tuesday as a front moves through the region. I'm not expecting much of anything that will significantly impact the day, however. Temperatures will be similar to Monday.  

Wednesday
​High pressure should build on Wednesday, and this looks as a transition day before what looks like an increasingly interesting period. Currently, Tropical Storm Zeta is churning in the Caribbean Sea, it is expected to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the Gulf Coast. The steering pattern is likely to bring the remnants of the storm to our region. 

Thursday-Friday
I'm not ready to declare this a SCW Period of Interest, but this period is looking a little more interesting. As you can see from the 500mb image above, Zeta makes landfall along the coast and quickly gets caught up in the steering flow. That will bring the remnants of the system close. There are two interesting things about this. First, the guidance has trended toward the remnants being a little stronger than usual, possibly due to focusing of moisture along a front. That means that we are increasingly likely to see breezy conditions and periods of rain that may be heavy at times. Now, this far out, it is important to remember that the track of Zeta could change and bring a reduced impact here. But for now, I think a period of heavy rain is possible on Thursday. 

Now for the second interesting thing about this setup. Look at the upper level low behind Zeta. This is the storm that may bring snow and ice to Texas in a few days. Obviously for that to happen it is working with a good push of cold air. Let's look a little closer to the surface on the European model. 

The image above is at the 850mb level, so not the surface, but just above. The gif moves quickly but you get the picture, the low ejects from Texas and develops a surface low on Friday right after the remnants of Zeta depart.

What would that mean?

It'd almost certainly mean another period of cold rain on Friday, in fact, it could be the coldest day of the season so far. Given the cold air in the region it could also mean there are snowflakes in the air, especially in northern and NW CT. In fact, some of the guidance is trying to produce a bona fide snow event in northern New England and far Upstate NY.

I don't currently think a snow event is likely here, but this is something to watch. It should make for an interesting week of tracking. For now, I am just putting rain in the forecast for Friday, but that could change as we get closer to the end of the week. 

Saturday-Sunday
Regardless of what happens, the weekend is looking cooler and drier, with high pressure settling back in. Maybe we even see some sun to close out the month! The early trick or treating forecast is good: chilly but dry for the kids that head out. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and drizzle. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and colder with rain and breezy conditions. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy and colder with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low 50s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

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Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​

Disc: The humidity will go first.  That will gradually leave tonight into tmrw, then the heat will go next week, as we gradually slip into a more typical pattern for late fall.

Currently: A weak cold front was located over the area.  This cold front is noticeable only because the winds pick up a bit behind the front, which helps scour out the fog and low clouds.  As the day progresses, gradual clearing should occur from N to S.

Tonight: I don't see any reason to go a significant way from guidance, one way or the other, but I will probably hedge toward the warmer guidance, since we'll still have a good amount of humidity around.  Expect low temps generally in the upper 50s.  

Tomorrow: A weak impulse approaches the area during the day.  Since any moisture associated w/this should dissipate to our S and W and no model is producing any measurable, I will not include any mention of precipitation in the forecast.  W/light onshore flow, I have done two things to temps... First, I have gone a few degrees under guidance.  Second, I've made temps more uniform across the state, due to the onshore flow.  Look for highs generally 60-65, although it is not out of the question for some places along I 91 to exceed 65.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: The main concern this period is a cold frontal passage during the day Saturday.  The cold front really does not have a lot of moisture associated with it, but it is a very strong cold front.  So there is a pro to including precip in the fcst, as well as a con! After examining the front a bit further, I have seen one more negative for pcpn in the area, and that is that most of the area wl see the fropa before noon.  This is the most stable time of the day and should negate any significant pcpn.  So I have declined to mention pcpn in the fcst.  Temperatures will also be tricky, given the time of the frontal passage.  Temps could get off to a quick start and then level off or even fall a bit late in the day.  Because of this, and a faster fropa, I have gone a cpl deg blo temp gdnc.  So xpct high temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): A lot more unsettled weather in the long term than we have seen recently.  First off, Sunday will be quite chilly, as we'll be behind Saturday's strong cold front.  Temps may be a few degrees warmer than originally thought, because there could be a bit more sun.  Even so, it will be chilly.  I have gone a cpl deg warmer than gdnc to compensate for sun, and am now calling for mid to upper 50s.

A warm front then approaches on Monday.  Across SW CT, this should produce an area of light rain during the AM hours on Mon, then some clearing should be expected, with perhaps another shower before dawn on Tues.  Acrs Ern CT, light rain showers and drizzle could linger most of the day Mon and only a few hr break is xpctd later Mon eve into ery Tues, as the front slowly traverses the state.  I have gone 3 to 5 degrees below temperature guidance, due to the fact that skies generally clear slower behind warm front than guidance would portray.  Therefore, expect highs generally in the upper 50s.

Most of the state should be dry during the daylight hours on Tuesday.  The exception is far E CT, where some light rain showers could linger until mid morning or so.  I have gone close to guidance on temps.  This suggests highs in the upper 50s, with a few low 60s possible in lower elevations west of I 91.

On Wednesday, another strong cold front approaches.  There is quite a bit of disagreement amongst the NWP solutions w/this sys.  There could be a few hrs where it does nothing, prob centered ard midday or ery aftn.  Hwvr, due to large mdl diffs at this range, I think the correct wording is "pds of ra" attm.  I did not mention t-storms, as most of the instab remains SW of the state.  Temperatures are also a bit tricky.  First, it will rain most of the day, but if there is a break around midday and any sun does come out, temps could briefly surge.  Secondly, there is a pretty good surge of WAA ahead of the front, and mdls often underestimate this.  Therefore, I hv gone cls to, if not a ltl abv, gdnc.  Highs shud be nr 60, but 60-65 in Wrn CT, where there is the highest chc of some breaks of sun.

The new GFS has introduced another wrinkle for next Thursday.  There have been indications in guidance of a potential coastal low at the end of next week.  Yesterday, most gdnc shunted this low well out to sea, due to a stg high to the north.  The new GFS then ran tda and forms the low alg the front, which gives heavy rain to the area mainly on Thu.  The new Canadian mdl is not a lot different, if not a few hrs slower and further NW w/the storm track.  Therefore, for Thu's forecast, I will trend it much wetter, especially in the afternoon and evening.  Rain could be heavy or even very heavy at times if the models have a clue.  As for temperatures, I went close to guidance, given variations in storm track.  A GFS track would be colder, a GGEM track warmer.  So I split the diff and I have mid to upper 50s for my temp forecast.

Looking deeper into the long range, a largely below normal temperature pattern looks to take hold across the vast majority of the United States, especially from the Rockies on East.. get ready for very different weather!

Now, let's take a look at some systems expected to affect the area in the next week or so.  We'll look at Monday's warm front and Wednesday's cold front.  I won't look at the late week sys yet, since there is too much uncertainty.

Here is the map for Monday's warm front.  Note the slow progression of the frontal system into our state.  We're getting into the season where warm fronts progress more slowly.

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Now here is Wednesday's cold front.  Note the potential for a prolonged stormy event, as depicted here, by the multiple lows and slow-moving nature of this system.

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That's all for now! See you again next week!

-GP!

Disc: Tis the season of up and down temperatures and frequent frontal passages.  Welcome to fall in Southern New England! The biggest concern through this forecast period is moisture from Hurricane Delta early next week, as well as a fairly potent cold front right on its heels.

Currently: Yesterday's cold front is offshore and cleared of the entire area.  Sprawling high pressure over the Great Lakes has brought chilly air into the area today.

Tonight: Temperatures will fall well tonight, with dry air and good radiational cooling conditions.  Because of this, I have elected to go a couple degrees below temp guidance.  As is typical on a radiative night, there should be a good deal of variation.  Most lows shud be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.  Some places on the immediate SE coast may be a bit warmer.

Tomorrow: With high pressure moving right overhead, temperatures should return to near normal levels, after a chilly start.  Temp guidance is in the mid to upper 60s and on a day like tomorrow, there really isn't any reason to quibble w/what guidance is showing, so that will be the fcst.

Tomorrow night/Sat: As high pressure pulls offshore, temperatures on Saturday will be quite a bit above normal.  However, humidity lvls will still be low.  This indicates to me that Fri night could still be quite chilly and the usual radiative locns wl still radiate well.  Gdnc high temps are in the mid 70s and this looks fine.

Long Term: Instead of doing a "day by day" long term, this time I am going to group it by event and threats, because it just seems to work better for this package.

First, The remnants of Delta... Sunday now looks to stay dry, as all guidance does not show rain reaching the state until after midnight.  So we'll call it dry with increasing cloudiness.  For now, will stick close to guidance temps, which shows highs around 70.  But if the sys speeds up at all, then clouds and onshore flow get here earlier, and my fcst could be a couple degrees too warm.

Latest guidance has trended a bit further north with the precipitation.  However, there is a 1030+ high to the north and what the GFS is showing is very plausible.  Because of the high to the north, pcpn arrives in SW CT Mon morn, but takes until Tues morn (when added forcing from the cold front/ULL is present) to get to NE CT.  NW Hills would get wet by midday Mon, with SE CT sometime around dinner time.  It is an odd progression, but it makes sense, as the high to the north bleeds down cool, dry air.  Also, as you might expect, precipitation amounts vary greatly, with up to 2 inches possible in SW CT to less than a half inch up north.

So, for Monday's forecast: Rain probably south of I 84 trending towards drier the further north you go.  I went below temp guidance for Mon, as even if it doesn't rain in places, it will be cloudy with an onshore flow.  Xpct highs in the mid to upper 50s.

I have showers and storms for the entire state on Tuesday, as the cold front/ULL get absorbed into the remnants of Delta.  Because of this, temp guidance looks too warm to me once again.  In addition to the showers, there could be a localized strong strom/small hail producer with the ULL approaching and steep lapse rates.  Xpct highs in the mid 60s.

For Wed, the upper level low is still overhead, but there should be more sun, so I'll lower to scattered coverage of storms.  i went warmer than guidance, as I think guidance is too cloudy Wed and the upper lvls are quite warm.  Xpct highs in the low 70s.

For Thu, the upper level low is still spinning nearby, but beginning to fill in and weaken.  So then I reduce coverage even more, to isolated.  Again I went warmer than temp guidance, with more sun expected than what guidance coveys, and xpctd highs in the low 70s.

There could be another shot of scattered t-storms as a strong cold front finally clears the region on Friday.

The long range looks pretty typical for this time of year, with widely varying temperatures and strong frontal passages.  It should be noted that there is a strong thermal gradient nearby, so models might have some difficulty w/temps.  A small deviation could result in temps being much warmer or cooler.

I will post two graphics today- the first showing Delta's moisture during the day Monday, and the second later Tuesday, showing added influence from the upper level low.

On this first image, note how the moisture has begun to reach SW CT, but the departing high over Nova Scotia is keeping most of the rest of the state dry.

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Lastly, this is the moisture associated with the upper level low.  Note how this moisture overspreads the entire area quite easily.

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That's all for now! See you next week! stay safe!