Nice, crisp fall wx across the area will give way to yet another storm system. As the pattern slowly transitions to a cooler one, there is increasing uncertainty beginning midweek.
Currently: The old nor'easter is way out to sea now, about 700 mi E of ACK. High pressure is ridging right along the east coast. The next storm is located near Springfield, MO.
Tonight: Generally clear, although clouds may begin to increase later at night, esp in SW CT. There really isn't any reason to deviate from guidance, given not much radiational cooling and not much advection, although I might go a deg warmer along the S coast and in the cities. Lows mostly 40-45.
Tomorrow: Clouds increase, but I think we get thru the day dry. This storm evolves differently than the last one. Winds increase before the rain arrives. Gusts could reach 40-45 MPH later tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Unlike the last storm, the strongest winds are in SW CT. With clouds around, I'll go a few deg below guidance. Chilly, with highs only 50-55.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: A shot of steady rain arrives tomorrow night for a few hrs. Rain could be heavy at times. Then, into Sat, the rain will transition to showers and even t-storms. Coverage should be high, however, thru the day Sat, w/like 60% coverage. Will Still go a few deg below guidance Sat, due to clouds and rain. Highs generally near 60.
Long Term: Sun and beyond- Main problems are the beginning and end of the long term period, w/some nice wx in between.
Sun: Unfortunately, with the upper level low still spinning overhead, some showers and storms will still be around. We should continue w/60% coverage Sat night until around midnight. Then Sun morning starts sunny. The sun will self-destruct the atmosphere and destabilize. Expect around 30% coverage showers and storms Sun afternoon. I'll still go a few deg below guidance for Sun's highs- generally near 60, although some places along I 91 could be a few deg warmer.
Mon: Nice fall day as the storm finally departs. Sunshine and highs in the low 60s. Guidance temps accepted as is.
Tue: I went below guidance here, about 5 deg There has been a tendency to push the cold front thru fast. The main question is whether or not precip will accompany the front. Guidance is not in great agreement. There is not a ton of moisture with the front. However, the front is rather strong. Therefore, I inserted a 30% pop into the fcst. I think this seems prudent, assessing all the pros and cons. High temps 55 to 60.
Wed: For temps, went a few deg below guidance, as it doesn't seem to be capturing cold air advection well. If the front goes thru Tue, then Wed could very well be a fair day in between any systems. I have deleted any POPs from Wed, and gone mosunny. Highs only 50-55!
Thu: Disagreement in the models regarding the next sys, but confidence is increasing that some type of coastal will likely pop, as wave spacing has increased. Therefore, I feel confident raising POPS to about 50% and using that as our baseline for the Thu fcst. Due to clouds and rain, a good 4-5 deg has been chopped off guidance. A chilly coastal storm portends. It is not out of the ? for some snow to mix in later Thu or Fri in the NW hills. However, this is low conf, and we're at day 7, so it has not been included in the fcst. High temps generally only near 50!
There could be a real cold shot beyond this sys, w/freezing temps all the way to the S coast and cities! Thereafter, we may rebound to norm or a bit above temp wise for a while, but the very warm wx looks like it is largely done this yr, unless we get a brief surge w/a storm tracking to the west.
I have included two graphics today... the first shows our heavy period of rain Fri night. The map is valid midnight. The second graphic shows our cold nor'easter Thu, w/the graphic valid midday. You can also see the snow line creeping S & E!
Currently: The old nor'easter is way out to sea now, about 700 mi E of ACK. High pressure is ridging right along the east coast. The next storm is located near Springfield, MO.
Tonight: Generally clear, although clouds may begin to increase later at night, esp in SW CT. There really isn't any reason to deviate from guidance, given not much radiational cooling and not much advection, although I might go a deg warmer along the S coast and in the cities. Lows mostly 40-45.
Tomorrow: Clouds increase, but I think we get thru the day dry. This storm evolves differently than the last one. Winds increase before the rain arrives. Gusts could reach 40-45 MPH later tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Unlike the last storm, the strongest winds are in SW CT. With clouds around, I'll go a few deg below guidance. Chilly, with highs only 50-55.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: A shot of steady rain arrives tomorrow night for a few hrs. Rain could be heavy at times. Then, into Sat, the rain will transition to showers and even t-storms. Coverage should be high, however, thru the day Sat, w/like 60% coverage. Will Still go a few deg below guidance Sat, due to clouds and rain. Highs generally near 60.
Long Term: Sun and beyond- Main problems are the beginning and end of the long term period, w/some nice wx in between.
Sun: Unfortunately, with the upper level low still spinning overhead, some showers and storms will still be around. We should continue w/60% coverage Sat night until around midnight. Then Sun morning starts sunny. The sun will self-destruct the atmosphere and destabilize. Expect around 30% coverage showers and storms Sun afternoon. I'll still go a few deg below guidance for Sun's highs- generally near 60, although some places along I 91 could be a few deg warmer.
Mon: Nice fall day as the storm finally departs. Sunshine and highs in the low 60s. Guidance temps accepted as is.
Tue: I went below guidance here, about 5 deg There has been a tendency to push the cold front thru fast. The main question is whether or not precip will accompany the front. Guidance is not in great agreement. There is not a ton of moisture with the front. However, the front is rather strong. Therefore, I inserted a 30% pop into the fcst. I think this seems prudent, assessing all the pros and cons. High temps 55 to 60.
Wed: For temps, went a few deg below guidance, as it doesn't seem to be capturing cold air advection well. If the front goes thru Tue, then Wed could very well be a fair day in between any systems. I have deleted any POPs from Wed, and gone mosunny. Highs only 50-55!
Thu: Disagreement in the models regarding the next sys, but confidence is increasing that some type of coastal will likely pop, as wave spacing has increased. Therefore, I feel confident raising POPS to about 50% and using that as our baseline for the Thu fcst. Due to clouds and rain, a good 4-5 deg has been chopped off guidance. A chilly coastal storm portends. It is not out of the ? for some snow to mix in later Thu or Fri in the NW hills. However, this is low conf, and we're at day 7, so it has not been included in the fcst. High temps generally only near 50!
There could be a real cold shot beyond this sys, w/freezing temps all the way to the S coast and cities! Thereafter, we may rebound to norm or a bit above temp wise for a while, but the very warm wx looks like it is largely done this yr, unless we get a brief surge w/a storm tracking to the west.
I have included two graphics today... the first shows our heavy period of rain Fri night. The map is valid midnight. The second graphic shows our cold nor'easter Thu, w/the graphic valid midday. You can also see the snow line creeping S & E!
Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
