If you want to get done with some last-minute late fall activities, like stringing up Christmas lights, this may be the week to do it!

Currently: Not much going on across the Eastern United States.  High pressure has shifted East of Nantucket.  With the high to the east of the region, most areas will see above normal temperatures, but spring-like sea breezes will be possible along the south coast.

Tonight: Uncertainty as to how much cloud cover we'll have.  However, there should be at least some cloud cover.  This, combined with weak warm air advection, leads me to go a couple degrees warmer than most guidance for low temperatures tonight, so generally 40-45, except upper 30s in the NW Hills. 

Tomorrow: Plenty of sun.  Not a lot going on.  Temperatures above normal.  Guidance is in good agreement and generally accepted.  Highs should be 55 to 60.

Tomorrow Night/Thu: A strong cold front moves through tomorrow night and temperatures turn much colder.  Clouds increase ahead of the next system on Thursday.  Look for lows from the low 20s to low 30s and highs 40 to 45.

Long Term: The weekend and beyond: The first system of note is Friday.  This system was initially modeled to be a large Great Lakes Cutter.  However, the modeling has since significantly change (as the developing blockiness up north gets modeled better).  Now most models agree that this is just a cold frontal passage.  However, some precipitation, mainly centered on Friday morning, is still likely with this system.  Temperatures Friday morning should generally be in the upper 30s, and most of the upper level profile is above freezing, so this should be a mainly (light) rain event.  However, some sleet pellets could mix in at the end in the north.  Since precipitation amounts will be light and temperatures above freezing, there is no concern for any frozen precipitation accumulation.  As skies clear later Friday, it should turn into a decent day, with highs of 45-50 and a few lower 50s possible in the I 91 corridor.

Saturday should be a lull in between systems and a relatively nice, crisp fall day, with high temperatures generally the same as those of Friday.  Then on Sunday, the next system to watch will be something of an inverted trough.  These systems are notoriously tough to forecast until the last minute.  There is a weak coastal low, which could amplify things as well, but right now most modeling keeps the two systems separate.  However, it would not take much for these to move closer to each other with time.  The latest GFS has trended significantly colder in the upper levels with this system.  There hasn't been much change with surface temperatures, verbatim.  However, it is important to note that if the upper levels are significantly colder and precipitation is heavier, surface temperatures would be much cooler and this would not be modeled correctly.  So how does a meteorologist handle all this at this juncture? For now, I'll go for a chance of snow showers (at least) around midday, and I'll cautiously go a few degrees cooler than guidance, keeping high temperatures under 45 degrees.  Although this forecast could be subject to significant changes.

The beginning of the next work week should be fairly tranquil and a bit warmer.  The strong cold front that will be the nail in the coffin for any warmth should pass through on Wednesday afternoon, with a line of brief heavy showers, possibly ending as snow in the north, IF precipitation holds on into the cold air.  As for temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, I'll go with 45-50 for Monday and low 50s on Tuesday as we warm up ahead of the cold front.

The long range looks cold.  Nearly all modeling is in agreement that Canada largely becomes blocked, which would displace the cold air into the continental United States.  As far as any wintry threats, as always, they would ultimately depend on the trough orientation when an individual wave shows up, but let's get cold first and go from there!

Now, let's take a look at some graphical products, to help illustrate how our weather pattern will be evolving over the next week and beyond.  First on deck is Friday morning's cold frontal passage.  Here is a model depiction of that.  Notice on this map, valid in the predawn hours on Friday, precipitation is just starting to move into the western portions of the state.

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Next, I'll show the CPC's hand plot for day 11.  This clearly shows how Canada is becoming increasingly blocked in the long range.  This process should allow cold air to spill into the continental United States.  As I said earlier, the individual storm tracks will be determined by the orientation of each trough, and that will be determined later.

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That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!

-GP!

Good morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Currently we’ve got unseasonably warm temperatures across the state, but those won’t last as a cold front sweeps through the state later this morning, shutting off any remaining showers that are lingering across the state. We should see temperatures falling through the afternoon as cold air filters in from the west, and strong winds are likely as well behind the passage of the front. As such, the NWS has issued a wind advisory for the entire state through this evening. A few scattered snow showers are possible tonight in western portions of the state from whatever lake effect remnants make it this far east, but I don’t expect anything more than perhaps a light dusting in the northwest hills as shown below on the hires NAM.

Behind the front, expect seasonably cool temperatures and partly sunny skies to start off your workweek. Highs should range from upper 30s in the hilltowns to lower 40s in the valley and along the coastline tomorrow. We warm up Tuesday as we are warm-sectored between two systems; one to our south along the coastline and one passing to our northwest, this will lead to highs in the mid 50s across the state and increasing clouds throughout the day.

For Wednesday, the models had kept the two systems far enough away from us that we remained mainly dry aside from a few passing showers, but the coastal system jumped northwest on guidance over the past few cycles and now scrapes our region on the GFS and is a full born rainstorm on the Canadian. Would like to see this trend hold for another cycle or two before becoming confident on a widespread rain event for Wednesday, but the previous consensus forecast of mostly sunny seems to be in doubt. Will add in a chance of rain for Wednesday and re-evaluate tomorrow morning once we have one more round of guidance in. Here's a comparison of the GGEM and GFS from their overnight runs to their midday runs, notice the shift NW in the coastal low.

The northern system drags in another cold front behind it as it exits, leading to seasonably cool and calm weather for your Thanksgiving day and Black Friday. Looks like highs in the low 40s on Thursday and in the mid 40s Friday with mostly sunny skies for the period. The next system will once again sweep in from our northwest for next weekend, at this time, this one looks a little bit further north of the previous ones we’ve seen and so just some showers is all we’d expect here, but as we’re still a week out, will go with a general chance of rain until we get a better look at the setup later in the week.

The Dailies

Sunday: Showers ending, then becoming partly sunny and windy, with temps falling into the low 40s by the late afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 60% for southeast areas and 50% elsewhere.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 40s.
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Have a great day and thank you for reading SCW!

-SA

Disc: The calendar may only say November, but the pattern looks like one you'd find out of a textbook mid-January.  From the looks of teleconnections and pattern indicators going forward, there isn't anything to indicate that this pattern will break down any time soon.

Currently: Weak low pressure was located well off the Delmarva.  There was just enough forcing available to produce light rain (and some frozen precipitation in the north) this morning into the early afternoon.  It's a little ironic, because models got the track and strength of the low just about perfect, but underestimated forcing.  Forcing is typically created from a temperature difference.  The temperature difference can be between the ocean water and land, or a subtle boundary over land, or even mesoscale effects, such as a sea breeze boundary or an outflow boundary from a previous system.  In this case, it was the difference between the ocean and Long Island Sound temperature versus the cool air advecting in on north winds.  This, combined with the fact that there was just enough moisture in the air, generated light precipitation over the area.  Fortunately, it did not create too many problems with the commute, since temperatures were marginal, and precipitation intensity was mostly light.

Rest of today into tonight: Lingering showers, now all in the form of rain, will exit stage right.  Tonight's temperatures will largely depend on cloud cover.  Given the fact that the ground is now wet and I am not expecting any sun today, evaporative processes should be able to generate low cloudiness tonight.  So I'll go with the cloudier side of guidance.  At night, cloudier conditions tend to mean warmer temperatures.  Therefore, I'll go just a degree or so above guidance for tonight.  This still yields a chilly night across the state, with low temperatures in the range of 30-35 degrees.  There is a possibility that black ice could form on some surfaces.  One mitigating factor is that it is still a bit windy, and this tends to help the ground dry, and you need water to create ice.  However, it only takes a small patch of unseen ice at night to create problems, so do use a little extra caution when traveling tonight- especially if the ground is still wet in your area at sunset!

Tomorrow: There is a big disconnect in guidance temperatures, with the NAM 5 to 10 degrees colder than the GFS.  The GFS says skies will be mostly cloudy- but with some breaks of sun- while the NAM has overcast conditions and even a few flurries in the NW hills.  In the very short term, the GFS tends to be a superior model with regards to its temperature algorithm.  However, there are also two factors that make me not entirely dismissive of the NAM temperatures... 1) The sun angle this time of year is very low, and it is harder to scour out low cloudiness, and 2) For the simple fact that when you're in a below normal temperature regime, the cooler solutions often work out.  So what I'll do is go 60% of the way towards the GFS' temperatures, given that they're more accurate than the NAM's, without completely ignoring the NAM's temperatures.  This yields high temperatures within a few degrees of 45 for most, except only around 40 in the NW Hills.

Tomorrow Night/Wed: Once again, the NAM's temperatures are cooler than those of the GFS.  Getting more out into this range, the NAM tends to have more difficulty regarding individual features, and I think what it is doing here is rushing clouds and precipitation from the weak frontal system (which will be mentioned later), and therefore, this results in cooler temperatures.  Moreover, with a SW wind flow setting up ahead of the cold front, temperatures should be able to rise even if clouds and sprinkles did develop earlier than predicted.  Therefore, on Wednesday, I'll completely throw out the NAM guidance, and go with the GFS.  This may actually not even be warm enough, but caution should still be used at this range.  Anyway, all of this yields high temperatures around 50 degrees.  As mentioned earlier, I'll keep the precipitation ahead of the next weak frontal system out of the forecast for now.

Longer Term: The main highlights of the long term period are a weak frontal system generating light precipitation Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, a much heavier rain event on Saturday, and then another Arctic blast with possible snow squalls, gusty winds, and very cold temperatures on Sunday.

First up, will be an approaching weak cold frontal system.  Models, aside from the NAM, have trended slower with this system, and are starting to hint that it could be something similar to today- where precipitation falls, aided by a weak developing coastal low.  This also slows down the ending of the precipitation, and could have implications in precipitation type during the latter part of the storm.  With this in mind, I'll call for periods of light rain all day on Thursday, transitioning to and ending as snow from north to south, but not making it south of the Merritt Parkway.  Guidance high temperatures in the low 50s look reasonable.  However, there is a distinct possibility that those high temperatures occur during the morning hours, with temperatures falling thereafter.  I am not expecting any accumulations of any snow that falls at this time, since temperatures will be at or above freezing the majority of the time, and precipitation amounts will be light.

Guidance looks decent for Friday's temperatures, but I'll go a degree or two cooler, since we'll have fresh cold air advection and a fairly strong N-NW wind.  So I am expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

Our next storm due up is a "Lakes Cutter" type storm on Saturday.  This storm will have lots of Gulf moisture to work with, so rainfall amounts could be quite heavy, on the order of one to two inches.  As for timing of the rain, expect rain to develop from SW to NE within a few hours of dawn.  Rain should then end around dinnertime.  As for Saturday's temperatures, with clouds, rain, and onshore flow, also combined with onshore flow and a tendency for this type of setup to favor cold air damming, I'll go a couple degrees under high temperature guidance, which would yield highs in the mid to upper 40s.  With some lingering cold air in place, there is some possibility that a brief start as freezing rain or sleet is possible in the NW hills and the far NE reaches of the state (outside of HFD metro).  I am not including it in the forecast at this time, but it is at least a possibility to be watched.

Behind this storm, on Sunday, much colder air will flow into the region on gusty N-NW winds.  Many models are now showing widespread snow showers and possible imbedded snow squalls with this cold air advection.  I'll add a chance of flurries or snow showers this cycle because of that.  It is possible some heavier snow squalls could produce minor accumulations, or at least lower visibilities.  As of now, it is impossible to pinpoint exactly where those would occur, but climatology favors the NW hills.  To be blunt, guidance temperatures look completely clueless during the day on Sunday, and this is not unprecedented with this setup.  With the aid of gridded data, and my knowledge of atmospheric synoptics, temperature guidance will be ignored, and I'll call for temperatures gradually falling through the lower 40s and into the 30s on Sunday.

A cold pattern looks to continue beyond there.  For Monday, temperature guidance looks a little more from the same planet than it does for Sunday.  However, even having said this, it is still a bit too warm, and maybe more than that, given the upper level profile.  For now, I'll cool it down a bit, since we're at day 7, I don't want to go too crazy, but I'll go with highs of around 40 and then we can trend from there.

In the long range, the pattern still looks to greatly favor colder than normal temperatures rather than warmth.  In fact, that could be an understatement.  There also may be a snow threat somewhere around Thanksgiving that could be more widespread than these past few little events.  Of course, we're way out at day 10 again, and I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but if there was ever a pattern in November that would support a widespread snowfall and is identifiable from a long ways' out, it would be the pattern we are about to get into, or a reasonable facsimile thereof.

Now that we've gone through the worded portion of this discussion, let's take a look at some of the systems that will be affecting this area this week.  First we'll look at the potential frontal wave for Thursday, and then we'll look at the cutter for Saturday and incoming cold air behind it. On the map below, you can see a very weak low organizing offshore, with a front moving through the state and just enough forcing to generate weak, but steady precipitation.  An argument could be made that we may need to watch to see if that low trends any further west, but for now, that seems to be an invalid argument.

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On the next map, you can see the low moving up into Canada producing heavy rain over the state.  I also used a different map background, because I want to illustrate the cold air coming down from Canada, and I feel this map does a better job.

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Anyway that's all for now! Have a great week!

-GP!

Disc: A legitimate winter pattern is materializing right before our eyes.  The first item on the winter banquet platter will be Arctic cold this weekend, then we watch the overall pattern transform into a true winter pattern!

Currently: Our Arctic cold front is near Chicago, but the pre-frontal trough, which will start the leakage of cold air into our region, is located near Pittsburgh.   High pressure is over the Eastern United States, but since the high is producing mostly maritime air, lots of clouds are present across the area.

Tonight: The prefrontal trough should move through without a whole lot of fanfare.   A brief sprinkle (or mixed sprinkle/flurry NW Hills) is possible as it heads through,  but most areas will be dry.  What we will notice is temperatures plummeting to 30-35 by dawn!

Tomorrow: A true winter's day on November 10!  Winds will gust in the 35 to 40 MPH range, esepcially early in the day! Cold air will flow in as the true Arctic front will cross the state around dawn.  The wind will make actual air temperatures, which may briefly rise to 40 to 45 in the morning, before really dropping, feel even colder.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: True winter in November.  Most record lows, which were set between 60 and 80 years ago, should be broken by 3 to 5 degrees! Low temperatures should generally be in the teens statewide and may feel even colder, as there could still be a breeze! High temperatures on Saturday only rise to 40 to 45, if we're even lucky!

Long Term: There is a small chance of a coastal low in the Sunday to Monday time frame, although most models have backed off that solution for now.  We'll assume that the current models are right, but it's worth noting that there have been many occasions where models have backed off something at this range, only to bring something back later on.  So for now, we won't call for anything, but don't be surprised if it needs to be added into the forecast later on.  Any precipitation that falls from that potential system could be frozen at times north of the Merritt Parkway or so, so that's something to also be taken into consideration.  For now we'll go with a generally cloudy day for both Sunday and Monday.  Temperatures gradually warm up, as high pressure shifts offshore.  Expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday and a degree or two warmer on Monday.

The rest of the long term looks to feature generally fair weather with near normal temperatures.  A weak system passing well to the north may generate some showers or a period of light precipitation Wednesday night.  This should be mostly rain near the coast, but could be mixed with sleet and/or snow across the north and the interior.  Either way, temperatures should be above freezing everywhere, and precipitation quite light, so it wouldn't be anything to worry about.  As far as temperatures, expect highs in the low 50s Tuesday, upper 40s Wednesday, and near or just above 50 on Thursday.

As we head into the long range, a truly wintertime pattern seems to be materializing.  Questions, of course, remain, such as "How long will this last and how intense it will be"? But today's modeling and teleconnections indicate that strong and potentially long duration are the answers.  In fact, some of the long range modeling is even indicating a few threats for snow, with accumulations possible even to the coast.  Of course, I am not in the habit of trying to forecast a November snowstorm from 10 or more days out, but I do like the pattern and will speak when there is a chance, so let's leave it at that, and see how this all plays out!

For now, let's take a look at some of the weather systems slated to affect our area.  First, let's look at a map of low temperatures expected for Saturday morning.  Before I post this map, let's keep two things in in mind. First, this map does not account for short range temperature differences due to radiational cooling.  Secondly, this map is only a timeshot, which means that even based on this map, temperatures could be a few degrees colder than what is shown here. 

It is my opinion that this map is underdoing the cold and that teens will likely make it all the way to the coast!  Next, let's look at the progged upper air pattern as we head into 11 days from now, as offered from the GFS Ensembles.

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There isn't much to not be excited about if you love winter weather on this map! There is plenty of high-latitude blocking, western NOAM ridging, and a deep trough over the Eastern CONUS.  Of course, time will tell if this is right, but as of now, it looks like winter is coming early this year!

Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather…
 
Happy November! The clocks are back an hour and with Thanksgiving a few weeks away a lot of us are already looking ahead to real fall weather.
 
Today wasn’t the best of days, with clouds lingering all day and a few showers lingering along the coast. Tomorrow isn’t much better, with a cold front moving through late in the day and evening that should bring more showers. After that however, things turn sunny, dry, and seasonable, with the chance of the first real cold shot by the weekend.
 
Monday
As I mentioned, tomorrow should be relatively similar to today, with clouds early and warmer than normal temperatures. However, by the afternoon and evening we should see a period of showers as a cold front pushes through and settles to the south of the region. That will knock down our temperatures for the rest of the week, as a different pattern takes over that allows for more seasonable conditions. 

Tuesday-Thursday
The middle of the week looks tranquil. As the cold front passes on Monday, high pressure settles in, bringing dry and seasonable conditions. It looks like we will see highs in the low to mid 50s across the state with lows getting down into the 30s even near the shore. 

​Euro 850 temperatures. These are not surface temperatures, but are a nice illustration of the push toward more seasonable surface temperatures…and below normal by the weekend… 

Friday-Sunday
As you could see above, a strong push of cold looks poised to reach the region by Friday. On Friday, a cold front will move through the state. It currently looks like a dry front. However, in the wake of the front we should see our first legitimate cold shot of the season.

It is going to feel like late fall, with temperatures potentially struggling out of the 30s inland by Saturday. Sunday could be a bit warmer, but by then we are watching a system potentially develop and move in from the west late Sunday or on Monday. It is something to watch for our next chance at precipitation. Right now, the cold shot looks quick. We'll have to watch and see if the cold shot becomes more of cool shot (meaning warmer than currently expected temperatures) by the end of the week. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers by afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Tuesday: Clearing early with dry conditions. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Friday: Partly cloudy and slightly cooler. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows in the low to mid 30s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and chilly. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. 

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers or rain/snow showers in northwest hills late. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Lows in the 40s at the shore and mid 30s inland. Chance of precipitation 20%. 
 
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Our winter forecast is coming soon! Stay tuned.

​- DB