Disc: Cold air is currently rushing into the region on gusty NW winds.  Lingering rain showers may end as flurries in the next few hrs, w/minimal, if any, accums, and any accums restricted to the far N country at higher elevations.

Currently: Cold front has crossed the entire state.  A secondary cold front currently crossing the border near Niagara Falls will move thru tonight and reinforce the cold air.

Tonight: Went a bit below guidance on temps, altho not as low as I might go on nights like tonight.  I have two reasons for not going quite as low.  First, I am not sure if/when we completely clear.  Second, winds likely stay up for much of the night, limiting radiational cooling.  Even so, everyone easily gets into the upper 20s.

Tomorrow: Cold and windy.  Winds could still gust to 35 MPH at times.  Guidance temps generally accepted.  Most places will struggle to reach 40 degrees!

Tomorrow Night/Sun: Still cold, but winds diminish, so it won't feel as cold.  Clouds increase late in the day ahead of our next system, which I will get to in a bit.  I went a few deg below guidance, given increasing clouds.  Highs only upper 30s to maybe 40!

Now regarding the clipper... it now appears that any redevelopment of the system along the coast will occur too late and too far NE for us to cash in on much.  It is even possible that our area is in the shadow and we get no precip at all.  There is still a chance that the coastal could develop enough to produce minor (2" max) accums in far NE CT.  W/all this in mind, I do not want to eliminate precip from the fcst altogether, but I also do not want to play up something that likely ends up as flurries.  So the best course of action right now is to mention chance POPs for snow showers Sun night into early Mon, layering them from 30 POP SW CT to 50 POP NE CT, and not mentioning any accumulations yet.

Long Term beyond there: More cold wx will dominate the long term, but generally dry conditions are expected.

For Monday, went below temp guidance, as there could still be lingering snow showers.  Additionally, it could be cloudier (related to this) than NBM likes.  Highs probably stay in the upper 30s!

For Tuesday, went a few deg below guidance again, as another weaker clipper approaches.  For now, just calling it a chance of flurries w/this one, as it doesn't look like it has a good moisture source.  High temps will be a bit warmer and probably crack 40, but still quite chilly!

For Wednesday, nicer day between systems, but still chilly.  Went just a touch under guidance, as it has been running warm in these air masses, but no major qualms w/it other than that.  Highs should be 40-45.

The next sys approaches on Thu and this one could have more moisture to work with, as it lifts a warm front thru the area, mainly in the first part of the day.  The GFS would imply the potential for a few inches of snow for much of the state.  However, NBM POPs are very low.  So I have just painted the entire state in 30% chc for snow showers at this point.  Still chilly, and I went quite a bit below guidance, for continuity and due to the chances of clouds being higher than indicated by guidance.   Only expecting highs of 40-45 again.

For Fri, we finally do warm up a bit.  Even going below guidance and assuming it is too robust still allows for parts of the state to get to near 50 degrees.

Beyond there, we could warm up for a day or two followed by a winter storm threat around the 12/5-7 time frame.  There is the possibility of a warm pattern for a while after Dec 10, but that is out in what meteorologists like to call "fantasy land", so tread w/caution.

No graphics today! See you next week and enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend!

​

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Thanksgiving week is here! This year, we're going to see a mostly quiet period, with minimal travel impacts in Connecticut. As GP discussed in his prior forecast, we're locked into a colder than normal pattern for now. The models have waffled on the duration of the pattern, but we do see some signals of a generally below normal temperature pattern for the foreseeable future. 

Above: the 06z GEFS showing projected temperature anomalies for the week ahead. A colder than normal pattern is likely this week, with both below normal highs and lows most days of the week. 

Today
It's a cold and breezy start across the state and it'll be the coldest day of the season so far! Temperatures are currently in the 30s statewide with wind chills in the 20s for most. Temperatures won't budge much today and tonight may bring the coldest lows of the season so far. Plenty of sun, not much warmth to be had. 

Wednesday
Tomorrow looks similar to today, with daytime temperatures a few degrees warmer. It'll still be sunny and seasonably cold, with highs in the 40s. Travel conditions look great not just across Connecticut but across most of the US. 

Thanksgiving Day
Turkey day actually looks like the warmest day of the week! That said, we won't be seeing a torch on that day. Thanksgiving looks mostly sunny with highs near normal. Perfect for backyard football games and opening the windows to let the heat from the kitchen out! We will see increasing clouds toward the evening, but I don't expect any travel problems in the state.

We'll see temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. By the end of the day we'll be watching unsettled weather to our west, but again, I do not anticipate travel issues Thursday evening. 

Friday
This looks like the unsettled day of the week, as a storm system and strong cold front passes through the region. The storm system doesn't look particularly strong, but if you're flying out on Friday there could be some delays if things trend stronger. It's not something I'd be worried about, just something to casually watch. For driving, things should be fine, as rainfall is likely going to be in the morning. It will be breezy as colder air comes in. 

Colder air will advect into the state during the afternoon, and if there is any moisture left over, we could see some snowflakes in the air. It's a low chance, and I don't expect any accumulation, but don't be surprised if you see a few flakes, especially in NW CT. I'd watch out in the Berkshires of western Mass however for potential accumulation. 

Above: 12z GFS depiction of the Friday-Sunday period. We see a quick moving storm system and front, followed by colder air that will dominate the weekend. 

Saturday-Sunday
​We quickly clear out after Friday's system, and the cold comes right back in. Some of the guidance brings in a trailing low that, while not depicted above, could bring some snow showers or flurries on Saturday. Still, not expecting any travel issues in CT. Both Saturday and Sunday look cold, breezy, and nice, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. It'll feel like winter is right around the corner.

The Dailies
Tuesday: Sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Wednesday: Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain, then decreasing clouds with a slight chance of snow showers inland. Highs in the mid to upper 40s with temperatures dropping during the afternoon. Chance of rain 80%. Chance of snow (inland) 20%. 

Saturday: Sunny, breezy, and cold. Slight chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow showers 20%.  

Sunday: Sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

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​
-DB

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!

​-GP!

More unsettled wx should dominate the next four days or so.  We are in the midst of seeing a pattern reversal back to cool, beginning later Saturday.  That's not to say there won't be a warm day or two mixed in, esp if a storm tracks to the west, but the majority of days will be below norm on temps.

Currently: High pressure stretching from our area up into Quebec sheltering us from any bad wx, but it is in the process of pulling out.  Strong lows were analyzed from ND to WI, with fronts attached to them.  A cold front extended from Chicago to Houston, and a warm front extended from WI to the mtns of NC.

Tonight: Combination of developing warm air advection and increased clouds should really keep temps in check tonight.  Temps should probably not move much from their daytime highs, and may even be a deg or two warmer when we wake up.  A round of widely scattered showers is possible at any time w/the warm front, but most of the night should be dry.

Tomorrow: By the time we wake up, heavier and steadier rain should be either over us, esp SW folks, or just on our doorstep.  Heavy rain w/imbedded thunder will be likely for the first half of the day and may linger a bit longer into the afternoon than originally thought, esp N & E CT.  Temps are very tricky, and depend on factors, such as if it rains steadily or if there is an end/break, and how fast cold air advection commences.  W/rain looking like a good bet for most of the day, I have basically ignored temp guidance, which generally assumes a perfect diurnal trend, and will just go w/"near steady temps" during the day tomorrow.  In reality, they'll probably spike a few degs w/high temps likely occurring just before noon W CT and just after noon E CT.  But there's no need to be so cute, esp since it will be raining and people really won't be able to "enjoy the warmth".  

As we get post-frontal tomorrow night, a period of strong winds is likely, w/gusts exceeding 40 MPH, as cold air rushes in.

Saturday is rather interesting.  A secondary cold front approaches, but at the last moment, a weak coastal low will form.  Now, this low forms a bit too far N & E to have major direct impacts, esp for SW CT.  However, the proximity of the low will allow for enhanced rainfall along this cold front.  What would ordinarily be just a sprinkle has turned into a period of steady rain Sat afternoon, w/higher totals NE CT.  I've generally gone fairly close to guidance temps, which suggest highs in the upper 50s.  But depending on the evolution of this system, I may be too warm.

As this system pulls out, it will deepen rapidly as it heads off into Northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes.  Winds will increase dramatically behind it, and we could see gusts in excess of 45 MPH later Sat into Sun morning.  Wind advisories will be possible, esp for NE CT.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sunday, expect varying amounts of clouds.  There could be a stray sprinkle or flurry in the NW hills from LES streamers.  Otherwise, winds gradually diminish.  No POPS in the fcst.  Any precip would be a few drops or flakes and not worthy of POPs.  For temps, I went close to guidance.  Highs generally near 50, maybe a deg or two warmer along the I 91 corridor.

For Monday, an Alberta Clipper system heads down.  It is unclear how much precip there will be w/this, as models are waffling with that.  If precip is light, it will likely be rain.  Any heavier precip could mix over to sleet or snow, as upper levels are cold.  It would not be totally out of the question for very minor accums (less than an inch) at elevations over 1,000 feet, but I am non-committal on this at the moment, since models are unsure how much precip actually falls.  I've gone several deg below guidance on temps, due to the NBM not correctly capturing cloud cover.  Highs only in the mid to upper 40s!

As the clipper pulls away, there could be wind gusts up to 35 MPH in its wake w/a brief pulse of cold air advection later Mon into early Tue.

For Tuesday, clearing skies, gradually diminishing winds, not much going on.  I went close to guidance on temps, w/a few local adjustments.  Cold again, w/highs generally in the upper 40s.

For Wednesday, fair skies and warmer temps, as high pressure moves offshore.  Guidance temps again generally accepted, w/a few local adjustments.  I do like the warmer guidance sets, w/good warm air advection.  Highs surge into the mid 50s.

Finally, for Thursday, it could get warmer than I am indicating here, but for now, I'll stay conservative, and follow the guidance, as there could be clouds increasing or onshore flow mitigating warming and it is too early to tell right now.  So we'll go upper 50s, w/the potential for near 60 along I 91 for now.  A cold front approaches, but any precip should probably hold off until after this period, so I am not mentioning anything for now.  Temps turn sharply colder thereafter.

The long range looks to feature predominately below normal temperatures w/the potential increasing for Arctic air intrusions as the month goes on.

Now, let's look at two quick short term graphics.  First is Friday morning's frontal line.  This map, valid noon tomorrow, shows heavy rain across the area, along a broken line of t-storms.  Then let's look at Sat afternoon.  For Sat's map, you see the potential for another shot of rain.  It would not be totally inconceivable for a few snow flakes to mix in over the NW Hills!

​

Anyway, that's all for now! I'll see you again next week!
​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

The first week of November really felt like fall! For the first time in quite a while we saw a below normal temperature week. After the second latest first freeze on record in Hartford, we had multiple days of morning lows below freezing! 

We've also seen mostly dry conditions after a number of rain events. The second week of November is looking warmer, mostly nice, and mostly dry. Let's dive in. 

Above: a temperature analysis of the first week (not including today) in the northeast. Below normal temperatures after October was almost outrageously warm. Things will warm up this week. 

Monday-Thursday
There's actually not much to say. When we describe the period as warm or mild, we're not really talking about October like warmth. We'll see a gradual warm up with highs in the low 60s on Monday and mid to upper 60s on Tuesday, followed by a gradual downturn in temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday. Nighttime lows will be warmer than they've been the last few weeks. 

Conditions will be nice, with sunny and dry conditions followed by more clouds on Wednesday and Thursday in advance of our next storm system. 

Friday-Sunday
Friday should bring our next rain event. A large area of low pressure is expected to develop and cut to our west, bringing what looks like a rainy day and/or evening on Friday. The rain could be heavy at times based on the signal we see so far. Depending on how quickly the front associated with the storm passes, the weekend is looking better with cooler and dry conditions. Like I said, not actually much to say!

Keep in mind over the course of the week that it is fog season, and the valleys could start the day quite foggy depending on conditions! 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low 60s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Saturday: Decreasing clouds and cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain early 20%. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB