Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

What a difference a pattern change makes. The last three months we struggled to get any rain. Now, we are looking at two additional chances for precipitation in the next week after our most recent storm finally broke through our remarkably persistent dry pattern. 

The week ahead is an important one as it's one of the most travel-heavy weeks of the year, and it will feature a modest rain chance Tuesday, a potential storm Thanksgiving and/or the day after, and then the second phase of this major pattern change--a strong shot of cold driven by the ongoing upper level shift in the hemisphere.

Monday
Tomorrow is seasonable, sunny, and dry. Our storm continuing to move away from the region means that it should be another breezy day, but not as bad as today. 

Clouds will increase tomorrow night as our first system advances toward the region. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
A modest system will move to our north on Tuesday, and it should bring a period of rain. It's currently timed to make most of Tuesday a damp and overcast day, even though we're not expecting a lot of rain. Less than a half inch of rain is expected, but we will take whatever we can get. 

Above: a GFS depiction of the fast moving system. We are likely drying out by late afternoon Tuesday. 

Tuesday's storm passage brings a boundary through the region, which means Tuesday night should be chilly and Wednesday will be a little colder. The day looks sunny and dry however, with increasing clouds again late in advance of the next storm system. 

Thanksgiving Day & Friday
This is our first SCW Period of Interest of the fall season. We declare these periods because there is a greater than usual chance of impactful weather. It's basically a "pay closer attention" notice during the fall and winter months. 

There was a lot of social media chatter about a big snowstorm for Thanksgiving, but for CT, even late November is not a climatologically favorable period for big snowstorms. There is high uncertainty about this period, because the pattern is still evolving. There are questions about how much antecedent cold will be available in the wake of Tuesday's system, and how the mid/upper levels amplify and steer a storm. There is guidance that keeps the entire storm to our south, guidance that brings snow (hill towns) changing to rain, and guidance that brings all rain. That's why we were quiet on the storm generally. There was no sense in saying much when was nothing meaningful to say. 

Here's what I think right now:

1) I do think that there will be a storm, and I am discounting the total whiff scenario. I think this storm will not be so weak and strung out that it misses to the south.

2) In terms of timing, it does look like this is an actual Thanksgiving Day system, so plan accordingly. This means Friday is more likely to be dry and much colder, but how long the storm lasts will also depend on how it evolves. 

3) For now, this looks like a mostly rain event. Before, which may have tricked the models, it looked like the antecedent airmass was plenty cold for snow for most inland spots. However, we see this from time to time--particularly in the last few years--where the extent of cold is overestimated in the absence of a high to the north locking cold in. That said, there is still time for this to trend warmer or colder. It probably wouldn't take much for the hill towns, particularly in NW CT, to end up with a cold enough solution for some snowfall or mixed precipitation.

For the rest of us, we would need substantial changes in how upper level temperatures evolve to have a chance at accumulating snow. Whether it snows or not aside, it does look like this could be another storm with meaningful rainfall, which would impact travel on Thanksgiving Day. Stay tuned. 

Above: 18z GFS. It has bounced around a lot between a whiff and rain event. 

Above: the 12z Canadian. This has a significant and longer duration rain event.

Above: the 12z European depicting a snow to rain event in the NW hills and rain elsewhere. 

The one key thing consistent across guidance--the cold afterward. 

Saturday-Sunday
The weekend looks cold. In the wake of the storm we will see the winter-like cold arrive and it will feel like a switch has been flipped, even though the week isn't likely to be particularly warm. If the Lake Effect machine gets going, there will be a chance of snow showers, especially in NW CT. 

Afterward, the start of meteorological winter looks cold. Whether that translates into snow or just another way to fail at delivering a more normal December remains to be seen.

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain, possibly heavy at times. Possibility of snow or mixed precipitation changing to rain in the NW hills. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 70%. Chance of snow in the hills 30%. 

Friday: Decreasing clouds, colder, and breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 20%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow showers 10%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow showers 10%.

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
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​-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

You know it's bad when I'm excited to talk about rain. Since August 20, my own backyard here in central CT has received a paltry .90" of rain! After months without meaningful rainfall overall, the pattern change that I previewed about a week ago is finally on the way, and it will bring an upper level bowling ball that will arrive with rain, colder temperatures, and for some--the real possibility of first flakes. 

The Pattern Change
Above is the 12z European Ensemble (EPS) with a northern hemisphere view of 500mb. To date, our exceptionally persistent pattern in simplest terms has featured strong ridging over the eastern U.S., which has kept storm systems from developing or getting close to the region in the last few months and kept us much warmer than normal.

This stagnant pattern is finally breaking down because of a wholesale hemispheric change, starting in Pacific which is a huge driver of our pattern especially as we head into winter. Normally we see coastal storms try to develop this time of year. These are early season nor'easters that bring us the bulk of our rainfall in the fall, as opposed to frontal passages and thunderstorms bringing us the bulk of our rain in the summer. The changes in the Pacific will dislodge more cold from the north and bring us more seasonable conditions, and with it push out the persistent ridging at least for now. 

The result should be the end to well above normal temperatures and that start of a much more active (read: stormy) pattern as we finish out the last half of November. There are indications that this kind of pattern could continue into early December, but we're not looking that far ahead yet. 

Above: the 18z EPS with a zoomed in look at 500mb. Note how ridging dominated our weekend and even into early next week, but a big storm system moves through to reshuffle everything in a big way by late week. This is the first stage that we will see in the pattern change, even though things are subtly changing before this storm arrives. 

Monday-Wednesday
The start of the week continues with more of the same in terms of our sensible weather. Tomorrow did look like it had a chance of bring rain showers at one point, but much like the failed retrograding storm offshore, the rain chances dried up. Tomorrow starts out cloudy, but should remain dry and warmer than normal with highs in the low 60s. If we're able to get some clearing, we could see temps top out in spots in the mid 60s. 

Tuesday should be slightly cooler in the wake of the weak Monday system with highs in the upper 50s, but we should have more sunny conditions. This continues into Wednesday, but our storm system will be approaching by then with increasing clouds. Right now I think the rain holds off into Thursday, but we can't rule out some showers starting very late Wednesday. 

Thursday-Friday
Beneficial rain should arrive on Thursday, when our storm arrives. The models have been consistent in showing a surface low developing, potentially a strong one, just to our south and bring moderate to heavy rain at times, particularly Thursday morning. It could be breezy as well, but I am not expecting power issues. 

From there, precipitation should become more showery in nature, and our upper low will then drive in colder temperatures aloft and at the surface. By Friday, it could be quite a cold day for this time of year (where normal highs are still in the low 50s), and higher elevations could very well see their first flakes of the season. For now, I do not expect accumulation.

Here are the latest depictions from the Euro and GFS operational models. The main takeaways here are:

1) There's a good chance for meaningful rain and

2) Some much colder air is likely to be here late Thursday and possibly into the weekend depending on how where exactly the upper level low tracks.

This rain won't come close to ending our drought, but if we can maximize our potential and see widespread totals of .75-2" of rain, that will be a good start. For now, I think most end up with between .5-1.5" of rain. 
​
​GFS 

Euro

Saturday-Sunday
As you can see above, after the main rain storm departs late Thursday we will be dealing with the showers of the upper level low and colder air filtering into the region. Saturday is this period where there could be more widespread flurries and snow showers in lower elevations, especially if there is left over moisture. This is non-accumulating stuff as we are going to be above freezing, but it would be a reminder that the seasons are changing. 

By Sunday, we should be clearing out and warming back up to more seasonable temperatures, even if slightly below normal overall in terms of daytime highs.  

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing. Highs in the low 60s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and slightly cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of showers late 20%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times especially early. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 90%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
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​-DB

Good evening and happy Veterans Day from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

There hasn't been much to write about the last few months. After a historically wet pattern that dated back to last year, from late August through now we have been historically dry. This has led to what amounts to a flash drought, with all of CT now in moderate drought conditions and the state continuing to battle dozens of brush fires because of the warm, dry, and breezy pattern. 

The warmth has also been incredible. So far, Hartford is 8.5 degrees above normal in November. Bridgeport is 5.0 degrees above normal. 

After rain last night and another warm day today, we are starting to see cracks in this incredibly persistent pattern. It will be a gradual shift away from what we've seen, but we are now seeing much more seasonable temperatures (though still probably above normal overall) and additional rain chances. 

Above: the latest analysis of rainfall the last 90 days. We've gone months without significant rainfall, with a few minor rainfall days mixed in. During this time, we have also been much warmer than normal. 

Tuesday
Just a quick note on climatology for this time of the month.

By November 12, the average high/low temperature in Hartford is 53/34. In Bridgeport it is 55/39. As a result, this time of year low 60s is warmer than normal but not overwhelmingly so in our warmer climate. Mid 40s would be colder than normal but still in that seasonable range. By Thanksgiving, which this year is on November 28, the average high/low in Hartford is 47/29 and in Bridgeport it is 49/35.

That's a helpful level set as we go from a pattern that brought us two 80 degree days in November and three days below freezing (at BDL) to something that more resembles a normal November. 

Tuesday we start moving back to normal, with highs likely to be in the low to mid 50s. Lows look a bit colder than normal, so there will be more freeze chances, even though for the vast majority of us the growing season has ended. It will be sunny and dry with a bit of a breeze, so once again we have Red Flag Warnings for high fire risk. These days will remain with us until we get more significant rainfall. 

Wednesday-Friday
The middle to end of the week looks colder than normal for once! Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s for most, so slightly below normal, and nighttime lows should get just about everyone into the 20s and low 30s. Wednesday looks more sunny than Thursday, as a weak system tries to pass to our southwest. Friday we are likely to be warming up just a touch, but still near normal for November with highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Above: the EPS (European Ensemble) showing colder than normal temperatures through the rest of the week on balance. Nothing absurdly cold, but a lot more seasonable, especially with regard to daytime highs. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. 

Saturday-Monday
This period will bring our next chance of rain, but the signal is far from strong. The European model and its ensembles have a strong offshore low that retrogrades into the region, bringing snow showers to northern New England and occasional rain showers for much of New England during the forecast period (and beyond). The GFS is much more dry, and even has a storm pass to our north on Monday bringing us rain from a different source. At this time I lean toward some sort of compromise, but again, the signal is mixed and far from strong.

Temperatures are likely to remain seasonable and in the 50s but will start edging above normal. Expect partly to mostly cloudy conditions even if the rain doesn't materialize. 

Below are the GFS and Euro respectively in their depictions of the weekend and early next week. While the signal is messy, one thing I like seeing is more rain chances showing up as the upper level pattern begins to shift. This was nonexistent even in fantasy range not that long ago. 

​GFS

Euro

The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.  

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain showers. Then partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 40%. 

As we move past the middle of the month, we see a shift in the upper level pattern. That may allow some moisture from a possible offshore tropical system (yes, it's still hurricane season and after a historically quiet period it actually got historically active--note the trend) and the overall pattern may bring us our first real cold of the season for late in the month. At least part of Thanksgiving week could be chilly. We will start diving into writing our winter forecast in the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
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​-DB