Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
A cold front crossing our state today marked a return to winter for the foreseeable future as we begin our journey into a pattern that features a long wave trough firmly set up along the east coast, resulting in below normal temperatures and elevated chances for wintry precipitation. Our first chance at a winter event is on the table for this weekend, and as usual, guidance is handling it in many different ways.
Thursday-Friday
Seasonably cool temps and quiet weather expected to close out the work week as high pressure to our SW remains in control. Should see highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s tomorrow and a couple of degrees cooler than that on Friday, with mostly sunny skies tomorrow and then clouds building throughout the day on Friday in advance of our system approaching for the weekend.
Saturday
Low pressure tracks northeast from Texas and the gulf region(where snows are occuring in southwest Texas currently!) to the Atlantic, initially passing southeast of us. However, as the storm reaches our latitude, a trough entering the lakes will try to tug the system back west and strengthen it, which would result in a more powerful system at our latitude and an enhanced risk of precipitation. Should the timing with the trough not work out or the trough come in on the weaker side, it will not pull the system far enough to the west to have any significant impact on our area and the net result will be a mostly cloudy day with a couple of showers. However, should the stronger solutions verify, we could see accumulating snow across the state on Saturday. As expected, model guidance differs on the exact evolution.
The GFS and NAM models are the weakest of the bunch, keeping the system offshore and resulting in only light precipitation across the southeast corner of our area, if that. Here’s a look at the GFS.
A cold front crossing our state today marked a return to winter for the foreseeable future as we begin our journey into a pattern that features a long wave trough firmly set up along the east coast, resulting in below normal temperatures and elevated chances for wintry precipitation. Our first chance at a winter event is on the table for this weekend, and as usual, guidance is handling it in many different ways.
Thursday-Friday
Seasonably cool temps and quiet weather expected to close out the work week as high pressure to our SW remains in control. Should see highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s tomorrow and a couple of degrees cooler than that on Friday, with mostly sunny skies tomorrow and then clouds building throughout the day on Friday in advance of our system approaching for the weekend.
Saturday
Low pressure tracks northeast from Texas and the gulf region(where snows are occuring in southwest Texas currently!) to the Atlantic, initially passing southeast of us. However, as the storm reaches our latitude, a trough entering the lakes will try to tug the system back west and strengthen it, which would result in a more powerful system at our latitude and an enhanced risk of precipitation. Should the timing with the trough not work out or the trough come in on the weaker side, it will not pull the system far enough to the west to have any significant impact on our area and the net result will be a mostly cloudy day with a couple of showers. However, should the stronger solutions verify, we could see accumulating snow across the state on Saturday. As expected, model guidance differs on the exact evolution.
The GFS and NAM models are the weakest of the bunch, keeping the system offshore and resulting in only light precipitation across the southeast corner of our area, if that. Here’s a look at the GFS.
The Euro and it’s ensembles are in the middle camp - they bring the system far enough west that we see a couple of inches of snow in the far eastern portion of the state and at least measurable snow for most. Here’s a look at the Euro - note that this is total precipitation instead of a sim radar shot because this is the only Euro data available for reproduction, but hopefully it gives you a good overview.
Finally, we have the GGEM and the UKMET - both feature significant interaction between the coastal and the midwest trough and eventually phase the systems, and the net result is a warning level snowfall for most of the state. Here’s a look at the GGEM.
Of course, the question on your mind is “which solution is right?”, and unfortunately I don’t have an answer for you yet. Generally, the trends today have been west, making the odds of at least some snow a bit higher, but in order to get more than nuisance flakes everything has to go exactly perfectly, a tall order in any weather event. It is worth pointing out that the relevant energy for the midwest trough is still up in Alaska where sampling is very minimal - as the energy moves into Canada and the CONUS and we get better upper air sampling I would expect that we will see further evolutions in the models in some form and hopefully the forecast picture will become a bit clearer at that point. We’ll keep an eye on the models and if needed, will update you further tomorrow with a first call snowmap and discussion.
Sunday-Wednesday
Slight chance of snow showers for Sunday as any lingering energy exits, then cold and quiet for Monday ahead of our next system for Tuesday into Wednesday. This one is of the Miller B variety, where a clipper system transfers to a coastal storm as it reaches the coastline. Models have shown just about everything in this timeframe from a weak clipper dropping a couple inches of snow to a wound up coastal that brings a significant snow to the state with some precipitation type issues(i.e. rain) as well. Of course, there are a healthy number of solutions that have just been cold and dry. We are still too far out to look at this one in anything more than the big picture, and given that there is a storm ahead of this one I expect that the usual rule will apply and we won’t have a good handle on it yet until we get past this next event on Saturday, so stay tuned! For now will add a chance of rain and snow to the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
Behind that system, the coldest air of the season is likely as an arctic airmass moves into the region as shown below on the GFS.
Sunday-Wednesday
Slight chance of snow showers for Sunday as any lingering energy exits, then cold and quiet for Monday ahead of our next system for Tuesday into Wednesday. This one is of the Miller B variety, where a clipper system transfers to a coastal storm as it reaches the coastline. Models have shown just about everything in this timeframe from a weak clipper dropping a couple inches of snow to a wound up coastal that brings a significant snow to the state with some precipitation type issues(i.e. rain) as well. Of course, there are a healthy number of solutions that have just been cold and dry. We are still too far out to look at this one in anything more than the big picture, and given that there is a storm ahead of this one I expect that the usual rule will apply and we won’t have a good handle on it yet until we get past this next event on Saturday, so stay tuned! For now will add a chance of rain and snow to the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
Behind that system, the coldest air of the season is likely as an arctic airmass moves into the region as shown below on the GFS.
The Dailies
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, then clouds building, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40% NW, 50% in the center of the state and 60% SE.
Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers, otherwise, clearing, with highs in the mid 30s.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Have a great rest of your week and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, then clouds building, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40% NW, 50% in the center of the state and 60% SE.
Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers, otherwise, clearing, with highs in the mid 30s.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Have a great rest of your week and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
