Something to think about: I was pondering why the models have been so bad this winter and the conclusion I came to is that the pattern this winter seems to be in a near-constant state of transition. Models do not perform well in transitioning patterns and do much better when there is a pattern that is locked in. Let that be food for thought, and perhaps if we can get a pattern to establish itself, models will do better.
Current surface analysis shows a low pressure center (the storm that has been hitting us the past couple days) over Providence, Rhode Island. A trough extended westward from the low to about Toronto. This combination is still producing frozen precipitation across much of the state.
Tonight: The precipitation will gradually wind down. Plan on an ending time of 9 PM to 3 AM, from southwest to northeast. This is a slow-moving storm and will end slowly, as well. As for temperatures, expect low temperatures within a few degrees of 30- uniform temperatures due to cloud cover.
Tomorrow: A bright ball that produces warmth may actually appear in the sky. Those sensitive to it may need to wear glasses to cover their eyes or a hat to cover their head! A beautiful day is expected, with high temperatures in the mid 40s, and maybe even a few upper 40s in the CT Valley! Any precipitation with the approaching frontal system should hold off and will keep the entire "day portion" of the forecast dry.
Tomorrow Night/Thursday: A frontal system will approach and bring occasional light showers and perhaps even a period of steadier rain to the state. The main timing of this will be late morning to mid afternoon, from west to east. There may also be a brief period of precipitation ahead of the main system in the predawn hours. This first period of precipitation will need to be watched for interior locations, as this could produce a period of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle there. As for high temperatures on Thursday, expect readings to range 40-45 degrees.
Longer Term (The weekend and beyond):Generally fair weather expected through this time frame. Temperatures will be much cooler, closer to normal levels. A reinfocing shot of cold air could bring snow showers or squalls Friday later in the day. Snow showers from lake effect streamers will be possible for the hillier terrain up north on Saturday.
As far as temperatures for the long term: basically mid to upper 30s for highs every day except Monday, which will see highs in the low 30s.
Long Range: Basically think of it as the pattern taking a little break right now to recharge & reload. Temperatures should be at or below normal the vast majority of days in the long range, and the overall pattern does look to get a lot more stormy as we enter February. Therefore, one would think the chances for individual storms to produce wintry precipitation in our area would go up. Of course, it is all going to depend on the individual storm track of each wave. I like the period February 4 to 8 for a very widespread snow chance for now.
There really isn't a whole lot to show graphically this time around, but let's take a look at the frontal system slated to pass through the area on Thursday.
Current surface analysis shows a low pressure center (the storm that has been hitting us the past couple days) over Providence, Rhode Island. A trough extended westward from the low to about Toronto. This combination is still producing frozen precipitation across much of the state.
Tonight: The precipitation will gradually wind down. Plan on an ending time of 9 PM to 3 AM, from southwest to northeast. This is a slow-moving storm and will end slowly, as well. As for temperatures, expect low temperatures within a few degrees of 30- uniform temperatures due to cloud cover.
Tomorrow: A bright ball that produces warmth may actually appear in the sky. Those sensitive to it may need to wear glasses to cover their eyes or a hat to cover their head! A beautiful day is expected, with high temperatures in the mid 40s, and maybe even a few upper 40s in the CT Valley! Any precipitation with the approaching frontal system should hold off and will keep the entire "day portion" of the forecast dry.
Tomorrow Night/Thursday: A frontal system will approach and bring occasional light showers and perhaps even a period of steadier rain to the state. The main timing of this will be late morning to mid afternoon, from west to east. There may also be a brief period of precipitation ahead of the main system in the predawn hours. This first period of precipitation will need to be watched for interior locations, as this could produce a period of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle there. As for high temperatures on Thursday, expect readings to range 40-45 degrees.
Longer Term (The weekend and beyond):Generally fair weather expected through this time frame. Temperatures will be much cooler, closer to normal levels. A reinfocing shot of cold air could bring snow showers or squalls Friday later in the day. Snow showers from lake effect streamers will be possible for the hillier terrain up north on Saturday.
As far as temperatures for the long term: basically mid to upper 30s for highs every day except Monday, which will see highs in the low 30s.
Long Range: Basically think of it as the pattern taking a little break right now to recharge & reload. Temperatures should be at or below normal the vast majority of days in the long range, and the overall pattern does look to get a lot more stormy as we enter February. Therefore, one would think the chances for individual storms to produce wintry precipitation in our area would go up. Of course, it is all going to depend on the individual storm track of each wave. I like the period February 4 to 8 for a very widespread snow chance for now.
There really isn't a whole lot to show graphically this time around, but let's take a look at the frontal system slated to pass through the area on Thursday.
You can see the weak low over Virginia and the 540 line is a good indicator of where the front is on that frame, so it's basically bisecting the state. Although most of the rain remains to the south, at least a little light rain should find its way into our state.
Next, let's take a look at the long range pattern progged for the first week of February.
Next, let's take a look at the long range pattern progged for the first week of February.
