Currently: Very quiet. Sprawling high pressure, stretching from the Twin Tiers to East of Cape Cod was responsible for producing the nice day across the area today. Temperatures will come up a couple degrees tomorrow, as the warmer (western) high takes over. TD EIGHT, just east of the OBX, was analyzed, as well, but is having little effect on our weather.
Tonight: Not much going on. Warm air advection will keep temperatures from falling very much.
Tomorrow: A bit warmer than today, as the high pressure system that will control tomorrow's weather has more of a land origin rather than a marine version. There is a chance that some thunderstorms creep into the area by rush hour, but coverage is probably not all that high. High temperatures should range in the 80-85 degree range, though a few areas in the CT Valley (I 91 corridor) could get into the upper 80s.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: This period will be dominated by periods of showers and thunderstorms. Although it really isn't a great idea to try to time each individual band of showers and thunderstorms, there will be periods of showers through this period. It will not be a washout, and there will be periods of sun, but have an umbrella handy. Expect most highs Thursday to be in the low 80s. Once again, one or two locales could be warmer if they get more sun.
Longer Term: Friday into Labor Day Weekend and beyond- At first glance, this period looks to be absolutely beautiful, with a Canadian High pressure system moving in, providing high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s, and the first part of this period, Friday and Saturday, should definitely live up to that advanced billing.
However, as we head deeper into the long term, into Sunday and Monday, all eyes will turn to tropical depression NINE, which by then will either be a strong tropical storm, or even a low-end hurricane. Keep in mind, a 70 MPH tropical storm is a lot different than a 40 MPH tropical storm. As of now, my forecast will not call for this storm to have direct impacts on the state, since most modeling does not show direct impacts. However, in the last 24 hours, modeling has taken a decided westward trend. Most modeling now shows the storm moving very slowly and possibly taking a sharp westward turn as it gets near this latitude. It also does not show the system weakening very much, partly due to abnormally-warm waters and partly due to interaction with a frontal zone and extratropical transition.
There is blocking high pressure to the north of this system, up over Quebec. There is also blocking high pressure over the Western Atlantic. Obviously, the storm will take a path between those two high pressure systems. While no solution is currently etched in stone, a solution further west, up the coast, or even retrograding into the coast, is certainly plausible, given the fact that there is blocking in place.
Another thing to note- this system is very large geographically. As I mentioned before, TD EIGHT is near the Outer Banks of NC. Yet nobody would have even known that. If TD NINE were there, showers and wind would probably be occurring right now in the state. This goes to show that TD NINE, which will be named soon, ( I am not going to write the possible name here, because there is a possibility that TD EIGHT could get a name a few hours earlier), does not have to hit directly to spread adverse weather conditions into the state. Either way, stay tuned, as anything from high clouds and enhanced rip currents to an all out tropical storm could affect the state for the second half of Labor Day Weekend!
The newly-arrived 18Z GFS ENS mean has a landfalling TS over Central LI, just FWIW!
Marine Notes: I don't usually spend much time doing this, partly because Connecticut does not have an Atlantic Coastline, but given that Labor Day weekend is coming, I felt this is noteworthy. Rip currents are currently running very high, mostly from strong Hurricane Gaston, which is well E of Bermuda. These rip currents will only increase as TD 8 moves into the North Atlantic shipping lanes, and TD 9 begins to make its march up the coast. Obviously, if Tropical Storm watches are posted, the public would take notice. But even if there are no direct effects from any tropical systems on our state, anyone venturing to New Jersey, Long Island, or Cape Cod area beaches, PLEASE beware of rip currents! They cannot be seen, close in very fast, and can sweep good swimmers out to sea. This can be a life-threatening situation, so please take extreme caution!
Now, let's take a look at some graphics displaying what I outlined above.
Here is a look at the strong cold front moving through Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Due to bad timing, there shouldn't be any severe weather, but a solid area of beneficial rain is possible.
Tonight: Not much going on. Warm air advection will keep temperatures from falling very much.
Tomorrow: A bit warmer than today, as the high pressure system that will control tomorrow's weather has more of a land origin rather than a marine version. There is a chance that some thunderstorms creep into the area by rush hour, but coverage is probably not all that high. High temperatures should range in the 80-85 degree range, though a few areas in the CT Valley (I 91 corridor) could get into the upper 80s.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: This period will be dominated by periods of showers and thunderstorms. Although it really isn't a great idea to try to time each individual band of showers and thunderstorms, there will be periods of showers through this period. It will not be a washout, and there will be periods of sun, but have an umbrella handy. Expect most highs Thursday to be in the low 80s. Once again, one or two locales could be warmer if they get more sun.
Longer Term: Friday into Labor Day Weekend and beyond- At first glance, this period looks to be absolutely beautiful, with a Canadian High pressure system moving in, providing high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s, and the first part of this period, Friday and Saturday, should definitely live up to that advanced billing.
However, as we head deeper into the long term, into Sunday and Monday, all eyes will turn to tropical depression NINE, which by then will either be a strong tropical storm, or even a low-end hurricane. Keep in mind, a 70 MPH tropical storm is a lot different than a 40 MPH tropical storm. As of now, my forecast will not call for this storm to have direct impacts on the state, since most modeling does not show direct impacts. However, in the last 24 hours, modeling has taken a decided westward trend. Most modeling now shows the storm moving very slowly and possibly taking a sharp westward turn as it gets near this latitude. It also does not show the system weakening very much, partly due to abnormally-warm waters and partly due to interaction with a frontal zone and extratropical transition.
There is blocking high pressure to the north of this system, up over Quebec. There is also blocking high pressure over the Western Atlantic. Obviously, the storm will take a path between those two high pressure systems. While no solution is currently etched in stone, a solution further west, up the coast, or even retrograding into the coast, is certainly plausible, given the fact that there is blocking in place.
Another thing to note- this system is very large geographically. As I mentioned before, TD EIGHT is near the Outer Banks of NC. Yet nobody would have even known that. If TD NINE were there, showers and wind would probably be occurring right now in the state. This goes to show that TD NINE, which will be named soon, ( I am not going to write the possible name here, because there is a possibility that TD EIGHT could get a name a few hours earlier), does not have to hit directly to spread adverse weather conditions into the state. Either way, stay tuned, as anything from high clouds and enhanced rip currents to an all out tropical storm could affect the state for the second half of Labor Day Weekend!
The newly-arrived 18Z GFS ENS mean has a landfalling TS over Central LI, just FWIW!
Marine Notes: I don't usually spend much time doing this, partly because Connecticut does not have an Atlantic Coastline, but given that Labor Day weekend is coming, I felt this is noteworthy. Rip currents are currently running very high, mostly from strong Hurricane Gaston, which is well E of Bermuda. These rip currents will only increase as TD 8 moves into the North Atlantic shipping lanes, and TD 9 begins to make its march up the coast. Obviously, if Tropical Storm watches are posted, the public would take notice. But even if there are no direct effects from any tropical systems on our state, anyone venturing to New Jersey, Long Island, or Cape Cod area beaches, PLEASE beware of rip currents! They cannot be seen, close in very fast, and can sweep good swimmers out to sea. This can be a life-threatening situation, so please take extreme caution!
Now, let's take a look at some graphics displaying what I outlined above.
Here is a look at the strong cold front moving through Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Due to bad timing, there shouldn't be any severe weather, but a solid area of beneficial rain is possible.
Next, here is the NHC's cone regarding the current TD 9. Keep in mind, this has moved 300 miles or so west in the last 24 hours.
That's all for now.. have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
