The beautiful weather we enjoyed the past couple days is going to be replaced by a warmer, more humid regime once again.
High pressure near Baltimore will continue to drift Southeast offshore tonight. That will setup a return flow of Southwesterly winds. This means heat and humidity will move back into the region, coming up from the Gulf Of Mexico region.
Tonight could be an interesting night regarding temperatures. Winds will be near calm throughout the night. In the winter, this would be a great setup for the coldest night of the week and great radiational cooling. However, since we're in summertime, the return flow will have set up aloft, which will slow the drop of temperatures. Despite this, some of the usual cooler spots may be able to radiate very well, so there could be potential large swings in temperatures tonight. In general, low temperatures across the state should range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. There could be a few places right along the Long Island Sound that only get to the upper 60s. Keep in mind, water temperatures are very warm and a light Southwesterly flow could actually warm the south coast up toward morning.
Tomorrow: A bit warmer than today. Highs should be generally in the mid 80s, with sea breezes and cooler hillier locations cancelling each other out, so to speak. It should still not be horribly uncomfortable. By late in the day, however, the humidity will begin to rise again.
Tomorrow Night into Thursday: We'll continue to see increasing relative humidity, as the warm return flow around the offshore high pressure system continues. Lows should be between 60 and 70 statewide Tomorrow night, and highs will be between 80 and 85 on Thursday, but with much higher humidity than Wednesday.
Into the longer term... a warm front of sorts will approach late Thursday night. Most of the moisture associated with this will die out before getting to Connecticut, but there could be a brief shower around sunrise in the hillier interior locations. This feature will be more notable for establishing a very hot and muggy day across the state on Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night will only be in the low 70s in most places, and highs on Friday will be in the 85-90 degree range. High levels of humidity will make it feel considerably hotter.
The weekend should be a typical summery weekend. Cooler air will seep in from the north, but without much fanfare, as the front that passes through Friday night should be dry. Highs will be 80-85 on Saturday, and a notch or two lower on Sunday.
Another frontal system will approach in the afternoon on Monday. Models currently show a dying line of thunderstorms moving through the state, so the action should once again remain mostly to the west of the state. However, this system does at least look a bit more potent than the one for Friday morning, so chances of thunderstorms on Monday will be a bit higher. As for temperatures on Monday, we should be looking at highs in the low 80s. Nice weather should move in on Tuesday, with temperatures a degree or two cooler than those of Monday.
The longer range looks like humidity will dominate. There continue to be two clusters of modeling- one that keeps it humid and more stormy across the area, as thunderstorms ride through the area along the "ring of fire" around the offshore high pressure system. The other scenario brings the Bermuda High in closer to the area, which would result in another period of very hot weather as we go into September. Either way, it will be uncomfortable for quite a while longer. Another thing to keep an eye on is the tropics. While there are currently no immediate tropical threats, any time you have a very strong Bermuda High and very warm sea surface temperatures this time of year, it sets up a very favorable pattern for tropical systems along the east coast of the United States from North Carolina North and Northeastward. So, for now, while there are no immediate threats on the horizon, it is worth staying tuned to products from the National Hurricane Center to see what's going on in the Tropical Atlantic Basin, especially given the pattern at hand.
Now, let's take a look at a couple systems that could affect the state in graphical format.
First, let's take a look at the warm frontal system moving in early Friday morning.
High pressure near Baltimore will continue to drift Southeast offshore tonight. That will setup a return flow of Southwesterly winds. This means heat and humidity will move back into the region, coming up from the Gulf Of Mexico region.
Tonight could be an interesting night regarding temperatures. Winds will be near calm throughout the night. In the winter, this would be a great setup for the coldest night of the week and great radiational cooling. However, since we're in summertime, the return flow will have set up aloft, which will slow the drop of temperatures. Despite this, some of the usual cooler spots may be able to radiate very well, so there could be potential large swings in temperatures tonight. In general, low temperatures across the state should range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. There could be a few places right along the Long Island Sound that only get to the upper 60s. Keep in mind, water temperatures are very warm and a light Southwesterly flow could actually warm the south coast up toward morning.
Tomorrow: A bit warmer than today. Highs should be generally in the mid 80s, with sea breezes and cooler hillier locations cancelling each other out, so to speak. It should still not be horribly uncomfortable. By late in the day, however, the humidity will begin to rise again.
Tomorrow Night into Thursday: We'll continue to see increasing relative humidity, as the warm return flow around the offshore high pressure system continues. Lows should be between 60 and 70 statewide Tomorrow night, and highs will be between 80 and 85 on Thursday, but with much higher humidity than Wednesday.
Into the longer term... a warm front of sorts will approach late Thursday night. Most of the moisture associated with this will die out before getting to Connecticut, but there could be a brief shower around sunrise in the hillier interior locations. This feature will be more notable for establishing a very hot and muggy day across the state on Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night will only be in the low 70s in most places, and highs on Friday will be in the 85-90 degree range. High levels of humidity will make it feel considerably hotter.
The weekend should be a typical summery weekend. Cooler air will seep in from the north, but without much fanfare, as the front that passes through Friday night should be dry. Highs will be 80-85 on Saturday, and a notch or two lower on Sunday.
Another frontal system will approach in the afternoon on Monday. Models currently show a dying line of thunderstorms moving through the state, so the action should once again remain mostly to the west of the state. However, this system does at least look a bit more potent than the one for Friday morning, so chances of thunderstorms on Monday will be a bit higher. As for temperatures on Monday, we should be looking at highs in the low 80s. Nice weather should move in on Tuesday, with temperatures a degree or two cooler than those of Monday.
The longer range looks like humidity will dominate. There continue to be two clusters of modeling- one that keeps it humid and more stormy across the area, as thunderstorms ride through the area along the "ring of fire" around the offshore high pressure system. The other scenario brings the Bermuda High in closer to the area, which would result in another period of very hot weather as we go into September. Either way, it will be uncomfortable for quite a while longer. Another thing to keep an eye on is the tropics. While there are currently no immediate tropical threats, any time you have a very strong Bermuda High and very warm sea surface temperatures this time of year, it sets up a very favorable pattern for tropical systems along the east coast of the United States from North Carolina North and Northeastward. So, for now, while there are no immediate threats on the horizon, it is worth staying tuned to products from the National Hurricane Center to see what's going on in the Tropical Atlantic Basin, especially given the pattern at hand.
Now, let's take a look at a couple systems that could affect the state in graphical format.
First, let's take a look at the warm frontal system moving in early Friday morning.
You can see most of the moisture from this system, as depicted, is restricted to far northern areas of the state. The other precipitation with this system is far away from Connecticut. The next system is slated for Monday afternoon.
You can see this system is a bit more potent than the one from three days prior, but it is still not a huge system, at least as modeled right now, by any means.
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
