Tonight – Tomorrow
Here’s our forecast snowmap for tonight into early tomorrow morning.
Models have become a bit more impressive with precipitation amounts, especially in the northwest and northeast hills where elevation and some upsloping will help to enhance precipitation. Elevation will also play a role in determining precipitation type as well; it’s quite likely that for a time tonight we’ll see a 33-34f cold rain at BDL whereas in the hills at 1000’ we’ll have 31f and accumulating snow. Those two factors should combine to result in a hills jackpot for this event; if I had to guess I’d favor NE over NW for the jackpot as they should see more QPF, but both areas will do well.
QPF across the state looks to range from a quarter to a half an inch, but some of that will be lost to rain and some more will be lost to “white rain”. From looking at the timing of the changeover vs. the remaining QPF on the hourly models, we’re generally looking at a tenth to a quarter of an inch of QPF as snow for most, with the hills perhaps exceeding that range by a bit and the shoreline only looking at perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. Snow ratios will be close to the standard 10:1, although perhaps a bit higher if we get into some really good forcing tonight. That said, I don’t like to bank on ratios for a forecast verification unless they’re all but certain to be above standard (like in an anomalously cold airmass, for example). Therefore, will stick with a general 1-3” of snow across most of the state, increasing to 2-5” for the northeast and northwest hills, and a coating to two inches on the immediate shoreline.
As far as timing goes, light rain across the majority state currently will begin to increase in intensity and then begin to change over to snow as we move through the night. We will first see the northwest hills change(in areas that have not yet changed over already), then the northeast hills, and then finally the valleys from northwest to southeast, with most areas snowing by 3-4 AM at the latest. Snow will begin to taper off by sunrise in the western portion of the state, but will continue throughout the start of the morning commute in points further east. Even where the snow has stopped, cold temps coming in directly behind the storm will cause roads to be slick, so leave plenty of extra time for your morning commute tomorrow. I don’t expect many school closings, but I imagine fairly widespread delays will occur. If you can hold off on your travel until after 9-10 AM or so to give the plow crews time to treat the roads, you should be much better off. For the rest of the day, should see temps falling into the teens by the late afternoon and partly cloudy skies.
All in all, a minor event accumulations wise but timing will make tomorrow morning tricky, so make sure to plan accordingly and stay tuned right here for the latest updates.
Cold and breezy for Saturday, but thankfully mostly sunny skies will keep it from feeling too miserable out. Highs should range throughout the 20s.
Our next system of interest comes in on Super Bowl Sunday. As of now, this one looks to be primarily a rain event as we are flooded with low-level warmth, but some models, primarily the GGEM, keep it cold enough that we could see some snow in our northwest zones. For now, will carry likely pops for rain with a chance of snow at the start and end of the event, but will continue to keep a close eye on this system in case it decides to trend more wintry at the last second. Precipitation starts in the afternoon and lasts until late Sunday night, so bring an umbrella when you’re heading out for your Super Bowl parties.
Colder air comes in behind the departing system to start the workweek. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s are on tap for Monday, and then Tuesday will likely be the coldest day of the week with highs only in the mid 20s. Mostly sunny skies for Monday, but partly cloudy on Tuesday.
Third system in the pipeline comes in on Wednesday as low pressure moves into the area from our southwest. This system has trended back and forth between a rain event and a snow event, with the current guidance settling in between and bringing accumulating snow early in the morning that then quickly changes to rain from south to north. Will lean towards the warmer solutions for now and carry a snow to mix to rain forecast with chance pops as there really isn’t anything to keep cold air in place, but will continue to monitor and watch trends.
Once again, colder air comes in behind the Wednesday system, with temps falling into the upper 20s by Thursday afternoon.
Friday: Snow early, then tapering to partly cloudy. Temps falling to the teens by late afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold, with highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Sunday: A chance of snow, then rain likely, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 30s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 20s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with temps falling into the 20s.
Stay safe tomorrow morning, enjoy the snow, and thank you for reading SCW!