The long term section of this discussion will be longer than the short term section. Simply put, nothing is going on in the short term and a lot could be going on in the long term.
Currently: Not much going on. High pressure over New England is in control of our weather. Hurricane Matthew is very close to landfall over Eastern Cuba.
For tonight.. the next two nights will probably be good radiative nights. Under clear skies, lows should range from the mid 40s to the low 50s, with some low 40s in the NW hills.
For tomorrow... sunny, and progressively warmer, as high pressure shifts offshore. Highs mostly in the upper 60s, except maybe mid 60s in the far SE, where a bit of a sea breeze could set up.
Tomorrow night and Thursday: clear, dry, and large diurnal ranges. Great radiational cooling night tomorrow night with a big range of temps, ranging from near 40 in the NW hills to the low 50s in urban areas and near the south coast. For Thursday, sunny, with highs ranging from 70 to 75.
Longer Term: Friday continues the theme of the past couple days. Sunny, dry, with highs in the mid to upper 70s!
For the weekend, all eyes then turn to Hurricane Matthew, currently about to make landfall on the SE coast of Cuba. Most models have moved further south and east with the track today, taking the low up to the Outer Banks of NC, then making a sharp right turn.
Most models also have a fairly extensive Predecessor Rainfall Event well north of the actual storm. A predecessor rainfall event is when moisture gets drawn in from the ocean and moves northward in the southerly flow aloft ahead of a hurricane. One of the largest predecessor rainfall events we ever saw was from Hurricane Floyd in 1999, when rain was already falling in the NY Metro and the actual storm was still down near the Bahamas. While this predecessor rainfall event won't be quite as extensive, there still should be a large shield of rain well ahead of the storm. What this means is that even if the low gets to North Carolina and makes a sharp right turn, most of the state would still see heavy rainfall, with the highest amounts in the south, and lower amounts as you head further north.
The one exception to the modeling today is the European model. This model wants to turn Matthew when it only gets to around Myrtle Beach, then meander him around in the Atlantic, before hitting Florida again and then reemerging into the Gulf Of Mexico. This solution, due to its wonkiness (no that's not a meteorological term), is being discounted.
So what does all this mean for our area? As of right now, there is a pretty high chance of a decent rain event, with a bit of wind, which is good, since we need the rain. However, as far as very high winds and direct effects from Matthew, the chance seems to be diminishing, at least for now. Keep in mind, that a small change aloft, which is still very possible at this range, could produce big track chances for Matthew- ranging from no rain and a beautiful weekend, to direct effects on our area... stay tuned!
Further out into the long term, behind Matthew, a strong cold front should bring some of the coldest air of the season to the region. Looking further beyond that, the flow seems to flatten aloft, which would mean that temperatures would also become more mild.
Now, let's take a look at a couple graphical images of Matthew and his potential effects on our region. Note, on this map, even though Matthew has already begun to move off the coast of North Carolina, the predecessor rain event has linked with the cold front, and stretches well into New England.
Currently: Not much going on. High pressure over New England is in control of our weather. Hurricane Matthew is very close to landfall over Eastern Cuba.
For tonight.. the next two nights will probably be good radiative nights. Under clear skies, lows should range from the mid 40s to the low 50s, with some low 40s in the NW hills.
For tomorrow... sunny, and progressively warmer, as high pressure shifts offshore. Highs mostly in the upper 60s, except maybe mid 60s in the far SE, where a bit of a sea breeze could set up.
Tomorrow night and Thursday: clear, dry, and large diurnal ranges. Great radiational cooling night tomorrow night with a big range of temps, ranging from near 40 in the NW hills to the low 50s in urban areas and near the south coast. For Thursday, sunny, with highs ranging from 70 to 75.
Longer Term: Friday continues the theme of the past couple days. Sunny, dry, with highs in the mid to upper 70s!
For the weekend, all eyes then turn to Hurricane Matthew, currently about to make landfall on the SE coast of Cuba. Most models have moved further south and east with the track today, taking the low up to the Outer Banks of NC, then making a sharp right turn.
Most models also have a fairly extensive Predecessor Rainfall Event well north of the actual storm. A predecessor rainfall event is when moisture gets drawn in from the ocean and moves northward in the southerly flow aloft ahead of a hurricane. One of the largest predecessor rainfall events we ever saw was from Hurricane Floyd in 1999, when rain was already falling in the NY Metro and the actual storm was still down near the Bahamas. While this predecessor rainfall event won't be quite as extensive, there still should be a large shield of rain well ahead of the storm. What this means is that even if the low gets to North Carolina and makes a sharp right turn, most of the state would still see heavy rainfall, with the highest amounts in the south, and lower amounts as you head further north.
The one exception to the modeling today is the European model. This model wants to turn Matthew when it only gets to around Myrtle Beach, then meander him around in the Atlantic, before hitting Florida again and then reemerging into the Gulf Of Mexico. This solution, due to its wonkiness (no that's not a meteorological term), is being discounted.
So what does all this mean for our area? As of right now, there is a pretty high chance of a decent rain event, with a bit of wind, which is good, since we need the rain. However, as far as very high winds and direct effects from Matthew, the chance seems to be diminishing, at least for now. Keep in mind, that a small change aloft, which is still very possible at this range, could produce big track chances for Matthew- ranging from no rain and a beautiful weekend, to direct effects on our area... stay tuned!
Further out into the long term, behind Matthew, a strong cold front should bring some of the coldest air of the season to the region. Looking further beyond that, the flow seems to flatten aloft, which would mean that temperatures would also become more mild.
Now, let's take a look at a couple graphical images of Matthew and his potential effects on our region. Note, on this map, even though Matthew has already begun to move off the coast of North Carolina, the predecessor rain event has linked with the cold front, and stretches well into New England.
Next, let's take a look at the "cone of uncertainty" from the National Hurricane Center. Note, this has shifted a bit east since the last cycle. This track, taken verbatim, would bring direct effects to the area, especially eastern Connecticut, but models are now east of what this shows.
That's all for now.. enjoy the rest of your week and stay tuned to SCTWX for more updates on Matthew! -GP!
