Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

After an early start to fall in August, our fall so far has seen a pretty standard step down toward winter. Unlike recent years with blowtorches in October and 80s in November, we have been seasonable. In both September and October the respective months finished within one degree of normal. So far this November, we have been right within that same range. 

We will get our first taste of winter in the week ahead, in the wake of the latest storm to bring rain to the region tonight and tomorrow. A big trough will dive into the eastern U.S., bringing with it our coldest temperatures of the season so far and for some...the first chance of snowflakes. Let's dive in. 

Above: the 18z GFS surface temperature anomaly for the week ahead, this is the result of a direct intrusion of the Polar Vortex, bringing Arctic air (for early November) into much of the eastern U.S. with record temperatures possible in the south this week. 

Monday
Tomorrow is probably our most unsettled day of the week as a broad area of low pressure continues to develop and move across the region to our west. This storm while bringing us rain showers will be dragging enough cold to bring the first lake effect snows to the snow belt in western New York and even out toward Chicago, where 6-12" of snow is possible! 

This storm system will move through fairly quickly, and it is on the front end of the coming trough that will drop our temperatures. Tomorrow doesn't look like an all day rainer or washout, but there will be chances of showers throughout the day with a chance of heavier rain in the afternoon, much like today. By tomorrow evening we should be starting to dry out. 

Below is an 18z high resolution NAM depiction of the rainfall chances tomorrow. 

Tuesday-Thursday
The coldest air of the season likely arrives Tuesday, and that's when we will see our first real winter like temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will struggle out of the 30s for much of inland CT, though I think most will end up in the upper 30s to low 40s. It's possible temperatures may be even a touch colder as the models have been pretty aggressive with this cold shot, but I think we moderate a little bit. Most of us have had freezes by now so the growing season is over, but Tuesday morning has the best shot yet of a freeze even to the coast. 

As the low departs Tuesday and a strong northwest flow keeps us cold, an upper level low and its flow will potentially allow snow flurries and snow showers to move further east than usual, and that will give CT its first shot at first flakes. In the NW hills, you have the best shot of flakes, and that may even lead to a coating, but for the rest of the state flurries/snow showers will be hit or miss with the best chances in northern CT. No accumulation is expected outside of the hills. 

Wednesday is another cold day but temperatures moderate some. I think there will be another chance of snow showers, but I also believe the odds are lower on Wednesday. We remain quiet and colder than normal on Thursday as well. 

Above: the 18z high resolution NAM again depicting the lake effect streamers that may bring some snow flurries or snow showers into the state Tuesday. Wednesday also has a chance of producing first flakes. 

Friday-Sunday
The weekend is currently looking quiet and colder than normal, with potentially another blast of cold from Canada. The GFS does want to send a weak clipper through the region Saturday which would bring another chance of snow, but I'm discounting that for now given the lack of a signal from other guidance. The 18z Euro maybe tries something similar for Friday, but I think the signal is too disjointed to read much into it right now. For now, I will just introduce low odds for something Friday and Saturday, but not that it's likely one day or the other that would see precipitation.  

Although it is out of the forecast range, this may set the stage for another storm system early in the following week, which is forever away but may be interesting if the signal remains (which...at this range is not all that likely haha). 

Above: the 18z Euro model depicting a reinforcing shot of cold in the coming weekend, especially on Saturday. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny and breezy with a chance of snow flurries and snow showers. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 30%. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold with a chance of snow flurries and snow showers. Chance of snow 20%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. 

Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%. 

Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

We had a lovely fall weekend across the state, with seasonable temperatures and ample sunshine! Our October so far has been fairly benign. Temperatures at Hartford (BDL) and Bridgeport have both been within one degree of normal, and even with our nor'easter both stations are drier than normal. The rain did ease the extent of the drought, but only marginally. 

The week ahead however brings hope. While I'm not quite ready to say we're in a full blown pattern change because the temperature profile doesn't look significantly different from what we've been experiencing, it does look like the pattern has modified enough to bring us repeated rain chances over the last third of October, including two in the coming week. Let's dive in. 

Above: an analysis of precipitation relative to normal since July 1, 2025. Note how the worst conditions are by far in northern New England, where they are experiencing their worst drought in decades. 

​Below: the latest drought monitor showing the severity of the dry conditions region wide. It could be much worse in our neck of the woods. 

Monday
Tomorrow brings our best chance for meaningful rainfall. First, folks along the coast should watch out for minor coastal flooding, with a coastal flood advisory up for the entire shoreline as minor inundation on the order of 6" is possible tomorrow morning. 

Our weather maker is already making its way through western New York, and will arrive in the morning for us. This is a strong frontal system that will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, strong winds, and perhaps some strong thunderstorms tomorrow between about 3am and noon.

From there, it may continue to be cloudy and breezy but we will gradually dry out. I don't think we see significant wind issues tomorrow, but it will be worth monitoring for general 20-40mph gusts that could knock out power in isolated spots, especially if there are thunderstorms embedded in the line that could help mix down the stronger winds. If we see those thunderstorms, gusts up to 50mph may be possible. Be prepared for a wet commute in the morning. 

Below: the latest HRRR showing a depiction of the line moving through the state tomorrow morning. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
After the frontal system departs Monday, we move back to seasonable temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the 60s. While Tuesday looks partly to mostly sunny and dry, our next chance of rain comes early Wednesday from a system that is much weaker. The rain is less meaningful here, but every little bit helps. After the front passes we will be under the influence of a related system to our west which will bring clouds and some minor shower chances on Thursday. 

Above: the 12z Euro depiction of the Thursday-Friday period. Note the chance of showers around on Thursday in the wake of our second rain chance. Odds of something are low, but will be in the forecast. This will also move us into a cooler period of temperatures. 

Thursday-Sunday
The latter half of the week currently looks quiet, outside of the aforementioned rain shower chances on Thursday. It will be cooler but seasonable, with highs struggling to reach 60 and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. We'll see if that trends any colder for overall that's not terribly unseasonable for this time of year. 

The Dailies
Monday: Rain, with thunderstorm chances and breezy conditions. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Highs in the low to mid 60s but dropping after the front. Chance of rain 90%. 

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Finally, a bit of news. The last few years it has been hard to put out seasonal forecasts due to the amount of time it takes and me being the only consistent writer now. But, with requests from more than a few followers we are going to make an effort to write and grade a winter forecast. The aim will be to post it the week of Thanksgiving, and submit a final grade once we declare winter over. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
​
Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

For most of the last week, we've been watching the potential for a subtropical or non-tropical coastal storm to develop. The trend has been toward a more impactful system, and with increased confidence that we are affected it is time to take a closer look. Let's dive in. 

Above: 00z GFS 500mb depiction of the coming storm. Two distinct elements will combine or "phase" to bring us our storm. There is still significant uncertainty over exact track and intensity. 

The Setup
This time of year, it is exceptionally rare to get purely tropical systems up this way. However, October has produced subtropical or non-tropical "hybrid" systems that have been impactful for the region. This time we have a mostly non-tropical low that will develop off the southeast coast. It will have some tropical moisture/influence that may allow it briefly to be a subtropical storm, but whether or not it gets designated is irrelevant. 

Using the phase change chart above from the 00z European model, we can see how it starts out as a cold-core (non-tropical) system, but then perhaps tries to acquire some tropical characteristics as a warm core system before the storm matures into a warm seclusion cyclone. 

Because it may be some sort of hybrid, we expect a large, sprawling, area of low pressure, one which will deliver rain and wind far from its center. 

Above: the 06z GFS depiction of the storm's evolution. Note how it develops off the SE coast, and then as it phases with the energy from the Lakes region it intensifies and brings a band of rain into New England. This is only part of the story. 

Potential Impacts
There is still significant uncertainty over track and intensity. The models have been waffling on intensity, while the track has become a little more stable. With such a large storm we see a few hazards. 

Rainfall
Because it has been so dry, I am doubtful that we have a significant risk for flooding. That may be confined to heavier rain zones in the Mid-Atlantic. The duration of rainfall if the track is further north however bears some watching. 

Coastal Flooding
I do have some concern about coastal flooding. While we may dodge a bit of a bullet with the storm coming Sunday and after one of our higher tide cycles for the year, the track of the system may bring persistent flow into Long Island Sound, which could cause some coastal flooding issues, especially in SW CT. This is something to closely monitor, as the exact track and wind direction will impact what happens. Folks along the coast should pay close attention as we could see minor to moderate flooding as of this post. 

Above: the GFS showing the potential surface winds of the storm. I am posting this to illustrate the flow that could cause coastal flooding, Strong winds into the Sound could cause problems. 

Wind
Finally, as you can see above from the GFS, this could be a windy storm, especially at the coast. This is also dependent a bit on track, though between a strong low and high pressure to the north, Sunday and Monday look breezy to windy with a pressure gradient on its own. 

The coast is most likely as usual to see the strongest winds, and the heightened concern comes because there are still leaves on the trees. This won't be the windiest storm ever, but power outages will be possible. 

Above: 925mb wind speeds from the GFS. 

Below: 925mb wind speeds from the Euro. These are winds just above the surface and will not fully translate to ground level. 

The 925mb winds above are a little impressive, showing 50kt+ winds well into CT Monday morning. Not all of this will translate to the surface, but as we get closer we need to watch to see if this signal increases some. As it stands, peak winds inland may be 30-40mph, while at the coast it could be 40-50mph. Again, not the worst, but enough for possible scattered tree damage and power outages. 

Overall, this is a system to pay attention to. The timeframe for impacts would be as early as Sunday morning through early Tuesday, with specific timing to be determined. Now would be a good time to check your storm supplies--just in case we do see those power outages. 

Stay tuned. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
​
Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

After fall started early in New England, in the back of our minds we always knew it wasn't going to last forever. Summer-like weather has returned in force, with moderate levels of humidity and highs today reaching the mid 80s! After a period where we did get some meaningful rain, we go right back to dry conditions for the coming forecast period. 

Above: the 18z GFS Ensembles showing the projected 500mb pattern by the end of the week. An unusually strong and expansive ridge for this time of year will dominate our weather. 

Climatology
October is right around the corner, so let's talk about what's normal! October is even more of a transition month than September, as we lose daylight and warmth at an even faster pace. October can really be a seesaw month, with temperatures in the 80s one week and snow the next. October usually brings our first freeze for most places inland, and can bring our first flakes inland in rare years (outside of NW CT). 

Hartford (BDL Normals) 
October 1 High/Low--70/48
October 15 High/Low--64/43

November 1 High/Low--57/37
November 15 High/Low--52/33
November 30 High/Low--46/29

Bridgeport (BDR Normals)
October 1 High/Low--70/54
October 15 High/Low--65/49

November 1 High/Low--59/43
November 15 High/Low--54/39
November 30 High/Low--49/34

Monday-Tuesday
Today was the peak of the warmth in the coming week, but Monday and Tuesday still will end up much warmer than normal. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies on both days with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in our warmest spots. Clouds may increase a little Tuesday as we have high pressure build in from the north. 

Above: GFS depiction of temperature anomalies through much of the work week.

Wednesday-Friday
With the ridge building in from the north, we go back to classic fall weather. Temperatures will swing below normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, with the exception of maybe the immediate shoreline. Sunny and dry times continue! 

Saturday-Sunday
Originally I kept an eye out for possible remnants or tropical impacts during the weekend, but now that we have high confidence that Imelda will head out to sea, the weekend is looking tremendous. Temperatures rise back above normal, but not overwhelmingly so. We will remain sunny and dry. 

Above: The rain we recently had doesn't factor into the drought monitor above, but we all know it--things have been dry. The small patch of south central CT that did not get as much rain during our Thursday "washout" chief among us. Part of New London County probably pulled themselves out of the moderate drought with the rain Thursday and yesterday, but we'll see. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid to upper 40s at the shoreline. Patchy frost possible in hill towns. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows in the 40s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer, but September 1 is the start of Meteorological Fall! Fall arrived early this year, and for much of August we have been in a persistently dry and cooler than normal period. It has led to fantastic conditions overall, and now that unofficial summer is over, let's take a look at what was and look at the week ahead!

Above: the Climate Prediction Center forecast for the 6-10 day period in September, fall conditions will continue to settle in as we move through the first 1/3 of the month. Perhaps we get warmer with less troughing afterward, but fall is here. 

An odd August and Meteorological Summer
Before turning to the forecast for the week ahead--which is a fairly mundane one, let's take a look back at August and the summer that was. 

First, August was odd. It's not hyperbole to say that our region has been a blowtorch in recent years. In fact, we've finished every month above normal for nearly two years. At Hartford (BDL) we broke the streak. August was the first time in 20 months that we finished a month below normal, which is truly extraordinary. August finished 2.9 degrees below normal at BDL, which is hard to do during the summer, with 22 days below normal. At Bridgeport, which represents the coastline of the state in weather records, the station finished an even 2.0 degrees below normal. 

There was an even greater discrepancy in rainfall, however. Both stations were drier than normal, but while Hartford finished below normal with 2.45 inches of rain, Bridgeport barely got a drop. Literally. Bridgeport only received .08" of rain. Death Valley, California received over 4x the amount of rainfall. Bridgeport not only shattered its record for driest August on record, it also obliterated its record for the driest summer on record. Records here go back to 1948. 

Once again, our hottest high temperatures happened in June, followed by a hot and oppressively July. This year, we also saw a surprising shift to fall starting immediately in August. Much like last year, rainfall quickly became an issue. Last fall we had brush fires across the state as a result of a historically dry period. It's too soon to say how our summer will impact our fall, and winter. 

Above: the percent of normal precipitation for Meteorological Summer. It has been wetter in northern CT, but not by much. If this continued into fall drought would not be far behind. 

Fall Climatology
Fall is a transition season. As I wrote a few weeks ago, we may start speeding up the march toward fall in terms of our climate normals by August 15, but it goes into a full on trot in September. Fall conditions may have arrived earlier than normal, but as we lose more and more daylight the global pattern begins its annual change and we see more conducive conditions for troughing, which usually means more cold air intrusions and coastal storms. 

Hartford (BDL Normals) 
September 1 High/Low--81/59
September 15 High/Low--76/54

October 1 High/Low--70/48
October 15 High/Low--64/43

November 1 High/Low--57/37
November 15 High/Low--52/33
November 30 High/Low--46/29

Bridgeport (BDR Normals)
September 1 High/Low--80/64
September 15 High/Low--76/60

October 1 High/Low--70/54
October 15 High/Low--65/49

November 1 High/Low--59/43
November 15 High/Low--54/39
November 30 High/Low--49/34

At Hartford, since 2000 first freeze usually occurs October 20. At Bridgeport, since 2000 the first freeze usually occurs November 6. A freeze ends the growing season, and we usually have frosts in the few weeks ahead of a first freeze. These dates are earlier and later for the cold spots in hill towns and immediate coastal locations. First flakes can happen as early as October, but measurable snowfall isn't usually likely until later in November. 

Enjoy the daylight while you can. While the sun sets at 7:23pm on September 1, by September 15 it is 6:59pm, and by September 30 it is 6:33pm! 

The Week Ahead
Today may have been less than perfect, but it was still dry. The week ahead brings mostly dry conditions but will have some minor rain chances. 

Tuesday-Thursday
This period of the week looks excellent. We're right back to seasonable conditions with ample sunshine and dry conditions. 

Friday-Sunday
The weekend is not looking as nice as the one we just had, but I am not sold on a dreary and wet one. By Friday, another trough will be moving into the region. This will lead to a front that may bring showers on Friday and a reinforcing shot on Saturday which may also bring showers. While the trough is still coming, which means showers are possible, the models have waffled on the extent and timing of rain showers. For now, I would expect the greatest chance of rain on Friday, with a lesser chance Saturday and low chance Sunday. 

The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with rain showers possible. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
​
Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB