Currently: Low pressure was over the U.P. of Michigan, w/a trailing cold front down into OH. A warm front, associated w/that same sys was bisecting the state as of this writing.
Tonight: Cold front goes thru, w/a band of showers possible around midnight. Moisture is very limited, so not expecting anything widespread. Slight chc to chc pops should suffice. Temps fall rapidly after fropa, and I think guidance is underdoing this, so I went quite a bit under guidance for that period. Look for lows around the freezing mark, a few deg either side.
Tomorrow: Guidance is in very good agreement. Sunshine, temps a deg or two above norm. Temps reach around 50 most of the state. There will be a noticeable breeze, but gusts look to stay near 30 MPH tops, so no need to mention them in the zones.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Split the guidance up a bit. For most zones, went a bit above guidance, w/downsloping winds expected. However, up North, you'll be closer to a cold high and fresh CAA, so there I went a deg or two under guidance. So highs range generally in the low 40s, but mid to upper 30s NW hills and NE corner. Wind gusts will be mentioned in the zones, as they will gust up to 35 MPH, and some isolated 40 MPH gusts on the ridgetops.
Long Term: Next week: Most of the week is quiet, unsettled wx should begin later Thu and continue at least 24 hrs. Because it's so far out, details remain unclear, so this disc will be fairly short and focus on the relatively pleasant wx expected before that.
Monday: Generally went close to guidance on temps, maybe a bit higher in the I91 corridor, with still something of a downsloping component to the wind and the usual compressional heating in the valley. Highs generally around 50, but 50-55 in that valley.
Tuesday: Did not stray too far from guidance at all. Sunny and nice, w/highs generally in the mid to upper 50s, warmest away from the Sound. Gradient could be bigger than I am portraying here, but I don't want to get too fancy on Day 4/5.
Weds: Here I went just a shade under guidance. Air mass is actually warmer, but clouds increase and there appears to be deep-layer southerly flow setting up, which would allow for onshore flow to penetrate more inland. Kept a dry fcst for now, as precip should stay well of to the west. High temps for now generally mid 50s, coolest near the shoreline.
Thursday: Again went just a shade under guidance, for the same reasons as Wed. IF this system follows the usual progression, we'd get a good shot of rain Thu morning and then clear out, which could result in temps being higher than fcst. But not much as followed "usual progression" this year. For now, high temps mentioned 50-55, coolest near the shoreline.
Friday: Very complex day. A lot will depend on the positioning of the front. Showers and t-storms in the warm sector, w/a few rounds of strong storms possible. Cool and drizzly in the cold sector. Where that sets up at this point is anyone's guess. Guidance pushes the front pretty far north- into Southern CT. In another yr, I'd say no way, but this yr, given how the SE Ridge has always been stronger than modeled, I'll accept guidance pretty closely for now. High temps in the mid 50s- coolest along the shores. Strong winds and much cooler temps are possible behind that sys into the subsequent weekend.
No graphics today, since the only sig pcpn is at day 6 & 7.
See ya next week!