Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

What a weekend! After a beautiful Saturday which featured some isolated showers late, we had an even better Sunday with seasonable temperatures and low humidity. Summer heat will return this week, and as we move further into July we gradually climb toward the peak of summer warmth. Let's dive in. 

Mid-July Climatology
Before looking at what should be a mostly quiet week ahead, let's take a quick look at what's normal for this time of year. July is our warmest month historically, which makes sense as summer reaches its apex. 

As of today, July 12, the average high/low temperature at BDL (Hartford) is 85/64, and those averages continue to rise gradually until we peak in the coming week. Officially, BDL will hit its highest average high temperature of 85.6 on July 15 and then hold for a few days before we see a decline starting July 23. At Bridgeport, we reach our highest average high temperature of 83.8 on July 16, and begins to decline on July 26.

Of course, we can get plenty hot after the peak of the season--averages are just averages after all--but the climate record is clear: much like a roller coaster, usually after that brief but extended moment at the top, the descent is fast. We're not quite marching toward Fall yet, but it's coming...

The Week Ahead
The nice temperature regime from this weekend will be a distant memory this week as a big ridge of high pressure currently bringing historic heat to places like Montana and Utah shifts east. We will not get the worst of the heat by a long shot, but our predominant flow will change, reintroducing heat and humidity to the region. 

Above: An EPS projection of the 500mb heights over much of North America by Tuesday afternoon. Note that the center of the ridge is to our west and we're once again on the line of a ring of fire pattern. This time, it may keep the storms to our north with some possible exceptions. 

Monday
Tomorrow will continue our dry period but we will see increasing temperatures and humidity levels. There's an outside chance a place like BDL hits 90, but I think for most of us the mid to upper 80s will be where we land. Chance of showers/storms looks very low. 

Tuesday-Thursday
This is the period where another heat wave is possible, especially inland. We will see the heat and humidity ramp up in a big way, and highs in the mid to upper 90s are possible inland on Tuesday and Wednesday. Combine that with high to oppressive humidity and heat advisories are possible for heat indices near to just over 100. Now, this isn't anything like the big heat wave we recently had around July 4th, but heat is heat if you're not staying hydrated and practicing heat safety guidance. Just be a little extra cautions, and for those sensitive to bad air quality be prepared for some poorer air quality potential on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday will have strong to severe thunderstorms well to our north in Canada and Northern New England, and it doesn't look like the risk will extend down here. Wednesday could bring a greater risk of storms, but for now, it's just something we will keep an eye on. 

Above is a GFS plot of possible temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday. Expect 90s each day including down to the shore. Thursday likely brings our last day of 90s for the area, but temperatures should be coming off their peak by this point. 

Friday-Sunday
Being on the edge of the ring of fire pattern, if the ridge shifts a little we could be in for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms as ripples of energy move fast through the steering flow. That looks possible as a trough tries to develop toward the end of the forecast period and the ridge gets suppressed south.

However, for now, there doesn't look to be a locked in heightened risk of showers/storms, just increasing chances generally. Temperatures will fall below 90, but still remain in the seasonable to seasonably warm range. Humidity should drop briefly after the heat breaks, but we start warming back up pretty quickly--as is usually the case during the peak of summer. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Tuesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s and a touch cooler at the coast wherever there is a sea breeze. Chance of storms 10%. 

Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s and a touch cooler at the coast wherever there is a sea breeze. Chance of storms 30%. 

Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of storms 10%. 

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of storms 20%. 

Sunday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of storms 40% 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
​
Thank you for reading SCW.

​-DB

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

So far, we've been mostly spoiled with seasonable daytime temperatures and modest humidity at best. That's all coming to an end as we close June and enter July. While July is historically our warmest month of the year, interestingly, in the last couple of years we've had our hottest temperatures occur outside of July. Well, that looks unlikely this year, as guidance has been hinting at the potential of a higher end heat wave. Let's dive in. 

Above: The NWS Heat Risk graphic, showing the potential for major heat related impacts in CT and extreme heat impacts in much of Connecticut as early as Wednesday. Heat Risk is something that's been around a few years and it takes a more wholistic look at how the heat and humidity on that day could impact the population. It's a useful tool that helps us separate standard summertime heat from something higher end. 

The Pattern Shift
The overall pattern in the week ahead is actually straightforward. For months, we've been dealing with modest to strong troughing over our part of the world, which has helped keep temperatures in line for the most part. That's going away for a while as a strong ridge develops over the central U.S. and opens the door for heat and humidity to get advected into the region. 

Above is a look at the European Ensembles (EPS). Note how at the very start we go from a more zonal pattern to an amplified pattern as a big trough in the western U.S. that's actually bringing snow to the higher elevations is pumping our ridge over the central and then eastern part of the country. One other thing you may see is the potential for the flow to favor thunderstorms in a "Ring of Fire" kind of pattern, rather than a more traditional hot and dry every day until the big bang at the end kind of heat wave. 

How far east the ridge extends and how strong it is--two things we do not know with certainty yet--will determine just how long lasting and high end this heat wave is.

What we do know however is this: significant heat and humidity are coming. 

Above: An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued by the NWS, as they have increasing confidence of a period of very high heat indices in the coming week, especially Wednesday through Friday. 

We know a heat wave is coming--officially that's three consecutive days or more of 90 degree or greater air temperatures. However, there's more to heat than the air temperature in our region. Humidity is a huge factor on how much strain gets put on our bodies.

What makes this different from other normal summer heat waves is that this looks like a "Big Heat" heat wave. I define Big Heat as air temperatures 95 or above and/or heat indices 100 or above. 

We get Big Heat days just about every summer. They're rough but manageable. When they're strung together, that's when we really start talking about major impacts because it usually means there's no opportunity to cool off at night. 

They don't happen often but they do happen, as you can see below. 

Big Heat air temperatures for consecutive days are more rare, especially after you get past three days. 

That would be brutal. One other thing to keep in mind here: localized humidity may very well be higher than what we see at official reporting stations. All of the local vegetation adds moisture to the air. It could be the case that while the heat index at BDL is 101 for example, it's significantly higher at home. 

With high heat and humidity and the pattern suggesting that we could see fast moving shortwaves (or triggers) moving though the atmosphere, strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening will be possible. We will need to be at close range to properly weigh the daily risk. This might be the highest chance of storms until July 4th. 

Thursday-Friday
This is probably the worst of the heat, but it could extend into the holiday. While the NWS currently calls for part of the state to reach 100 degrees both days, we really want you to focus on the humidity, which may make for truly extreme heat indices.

For the northern CT River Valley, this may be dangerous heat. Even if air temperatures don't reach 100, the humidity will be high end. We could see heat indices officially top 110, which is rarefied air in Connecticut. Once again, there will probably be a chance of isolated to scattered strong to severe storms and I have no reservations saying that some local weather stations could see heat indices easily push above 110. ​

Above: A look at the historical record for heat index at BDL and BDR. Official heat indices topping 110 degrees are quite rare at BDL and exceedingly rare at BDR. 

July 4 & July 5 (my birthday!)
It is an open question as to whether the heat relents enough on Independence Day to end the Big Heat wave. For central CT, I think we're still in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices well into the 100s, but it's looking like we could see a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms (again, some of which may be strong to severe) that could keep temperatures from reaching their potential. Temperatures likely remain in the 90s with high humidity statewide. I think fireworks displays look fine for now, but this is something we'll need to keep watching at this range.

As for Sunday, we may see the first break in the heat then, but that all depends on the extent and intensity of the ridge. This does strike me as the kind of heat wave that ends with a bang, but whether that happens on Sunday or beyond is TBD. 

Overall, it's about the get hot. No, you won't spontaneously combust when you walk outside, and no, it's not the end of days, but this is a heat wave to take seriously. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny with seasonably warm conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of showers/thunderstorms 10%. 

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny with seasonably warm conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of showers/thunderstorms 10%. 

Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices between 100-110. Chance of storms 40%. 

Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 90s to around 100 with heat indices between 105-110 officially, higher on home stations. Chance of storms 20%.   

Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 90s to around 100 with heat indices between 105-110 officially, higher on home stations. Chance of storms 20%. 

Independence Day: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices between 100-110. Chance of storms 40%. 

Sunday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices around 100. Chance of storms 40%. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
​
Thank you for reading SCW.

​-DB​

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

Some love them.

Some hate them.

For some, they invoke good memories and a sense of nostalgia, a reminder of the change in season. For others, the memories were scarring, invoking fear and dread. Thunderstorms are a seasonal rite of passage in our part of the world where we have four distinct seasons. 

Two severe weather days earlier this week, which produced wind damage in western and SW CT towns, heralded the arrival of summer weather. What leads to thunderstorm development in Connecticut? How often does severe weather actually happen? Why do some storms seem to fizzle when they get to my backyard?

Let's take a look. 

Above: A 2023 photo from southeast CT--taken by one of my dear friends. Note how lightning is striking in a storm on the left, but there's clear skies just to the right! This is a great reminder that it doesn't necessarily need to be raining where you are to be very close to lightning. When thunder roars, head indoors! 

What Makes A Thunderstorm
Thunderstorms are a critical element in nature's effort to bring balance to the atmosphere. If you notice, we almost never see thunderstorms occur on dry 70 degree and sunny days. Thunderstorms tend to be a summer phenomenon in Connecticut, during the season where we have the ingredients in the atmosphere for their development.

For a thunderstorm (convection) to develop you generally need four elements in play: Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture (SLIM for short). In Connecticut, some of these are easier to get than others, and timing and location in Connecticut matters a lot. You don't need me to tell you that NW CT most often sees strong to severe storms while it is less common in far SE CT. 

Above: A National Weather Service image of the ingredients necessary for thunderstorm development. 

The amount of these ingredients vary based on location. This is why thunderstorms don't just blow up over every part of the state at the same time. Usually, you need to reach a critical mass and a trigger (Lift) to initiate storms. When you have high enough amounts of each, you can end up with severe thunderstorms. 

Severe thunderstorms are defined as a storm with 58 mph or greater wind gusts, one inch (quarter size) hail or greater, or a tornado. Of course, we have all kinds of "non-severe" hazards with thunderstorms, including flash flooding and lightning. 

Let's look at each ingredient a little closer. 

Shear
Shear is the change in wind speed (speed shear) and/or direction (directional shear) with height in the atmosphere. 

Speed and directional shear are important in severe thunderstorm development. With speed shear, a significant increase of wind with height will tilt a storm’s updraft. This allows an updraft and downdraft to occur in separate regions of the storm and reduces the risk of water loading and thunderstorm collapse. 

Directional shear helps initiate the development of a rotating updraft. This is key in the formation of a supercell—the most mature and dangerous type of thunderstorm. Supercells are thunderstorms consisting of one quasi-steady to rotating updraft (I.E. storm with rotation). These are the storms most likely to produce large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. It doesn't need to look like the picturesque Midwest supercells to be dangerous. In order to get a severe weather day, we need some sort of shear. You can have a high CAPE/low shear or high shear/low CAPE day, but you need some level of wind shifting aloft for severe weather. 

The highest shear days come with synoptic (large scale) systems that include areas of low pressure, deep troughs, and tropical systems. 

Above: a diagram of a thunderstorm. Note how warm air in advance of the storm gets "sucked" in while the cool downdraft leads to the precipitation that brings us our weather. With shear, the structure is allowed to grow and the thunderstorm intensifies. 

Lift 
Lift is a critical ingredient for thunderstorm development. Even if you have an oppressively hot and humid day, that's usually not enough for a thunderstorm. If you don't have some lift, which comes in the way of a forcing mechanism, not much is going to happen.

Lift provides the atmosphere what it needs to rise and form convection. It happens a number of ways around the country, but in this region, if we're looking at statewide convection we’re usually looking one major mechanism: a front. ​

Above: an image showing the four major types of lift. Lift happens year round, but in the summer the type of lift helps determine how far along storms will get. 

Convective lift happens on days where you may see the pop up shower or thunderstorm. This is when the sun heats the area so much the surface heating creates its own lift. For severe thunderstorm purposes here it's the weakest kind of lift and doesn't usually create severe storms or even strong thunderstorms in CT. 

Orographic lift is something that actually helps in NW CT due to geography. The mountains may not be high, but the rising air from the Hudson River Valley into the Berkshires/NW Hills can lead to organized thunderstorm development. Once that lift is lost as storms move east, they can collapse absent another potent forcing mechanism. 

Convergent lift is when low pressure moves into the region and the convergence of air near the low results in lift. As mentioned above, this can coincide pretty well with out high shear days. 

Finally, we have our most common mechanism for widespread thunderstorm initiation--frontal lift. They don't just come from the north as a cold front passes, though that's probably most common. Along the coast if there is a strong enough sea breeze it can bring a frontal boundary inland that can become a focal point for thunderstorms. These boundaries don't go too far inland, but can lead to storms in southern CT. Fronts are the boundary between two air masses of different temperatures and air densities. When the cold front (or sea breeze front) rolls through, the colder and more dense air behind the front lifts warmer and less dense air abruptly. When all the ingredients are together in the right quantities, you have showers and thunderstorms.

In less frequent scenarios, we have warm fronts lifting north across the region. These are particularly noteworthy because they usually happen in an environment that is more favorable for supercells and tornadic activity. 

Instability
Instability is another critical element of thunderstorm production, and the more instability there is, the more potential you add to a developing storm. 

Instability is the tendency for air parcels to accelerate (especially upward) when they are displaced from their original position. You don’t need a lot of instability for a garden variety thunderstorm, but you need Instability and usually significant amounts of it for for severe weather.

An unstable air mass is usually characterized by warm moist air near the surface and colder drier air aloft. This allows air that is forced upward to continue to rise on its own, which eventually will cool and develop the clouds and precipitation that make up a thunderstorm. High instability also contributes to prolific lightning events.

Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE—is a measure of the energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft. 

As the National Weather Service notes, observed values in thunderstorm environments often exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg. Having 5,000 CAPE around here is unheard of, but If we’re talking about a high CAPE day, your ears should perk up. 

There are various measures of CAPE out there, including surface based CAPE (SBCAPE), mixed layer or mean layer CAPE (MLCAPE), most unstable or maximum usable CAPE (MUCAPE), and downdraft CAPE (DCAPE). Each tell us something a little different about the kind of thunderstorms we may see. 

Moisture
The last ingredient, moisture, is often the first ingredient we look to for thunderstorm potential. Think of a hazy, hot, and humid summer day. If you asked people what they remember about the end of those days, many will answer that they remember the thunderstorms. Moisture is a key element in thunderstorm development. Without moisture, there's no precipitation. 

We often have ample moisture available. On days with a southerly breeze, we are getting moisture directly from the Atlantic Ocean. With more humidity in the last 30 years, we've had even more moisture to wring out of the atmosphere on thunderstorm days. if you want to know what kind of moisture we’re dealing with during this time of year, look at the dew point—which is a measure of atmospheric moisture. A dew point is the temperature to which air must be cooled (generally) in order to reach saturation. The higher the dew point, the more moisture in the air. Generally, you need dew points 60 and above for thunderstorms. Storms generally don't happen in the winter and spring (among other reasons) because the air is too dry. 

Why Do Storms Fizzle In My Backyard?
As I mentioned above, the ingredients for thunderstorms are not equal across the state at the same time. That's why often times it's harder for central and especially eastern CT have trouble getting big thunderstorms. Yesterday is a great example of this. 

Here's the radar image of the storms moving through the state yesterday. The got further because there was more lift, but lift was strongest in western CT. Second, note the time. In NW CT, when you were coming off the peak heating of the day, there's more energy to work with at 6:30pm compared to eastern CT around 8pm and later.

Then there's a subtle feature around Waterbury. The severe storm produced an outflow boundary. Basically downward flowing air forced out cooler and drier air ahead of what were potent storms, leading to more stability in the atmosphere ahead of the storms and the storm collapsing. 

Timing matters quite a bit. The earlier mid-afternoon storms tend to take advantage of greater instability. That tends to allow storms to get further in the state. But the southerly wind ahead of these fronts often pull in more stable air, making it harder for storms to sustain themselves as the propagate east. 

Above: The life cycle of a thunderstorm. Storms are usually, not not always, maturing in western and central CT, and dissipating in coastal and eastern Connecticut. 

Thunderstorm Climatology
Finally, it's no surprise that our severe weather really takes place in the summer. While May tends to be the kickoff of our convective season, by far the most severe weather takes place in Meteorological Summer--June, July, and August. The worst tends to be centered in July, when we have our warmest and most humid period of the summer. By August we're on the decline and not how quickly September falls off! 

This year, when we have the expectation of more troughs hanging around and frontal boundaries moving through the region, it looks like it may be an active year for storms. 

Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings are issued by the local forecast office of the National Weather Service. In Litchfield County, that means NWS Albany issues your warnings. In Hartford, Tolland, and Windham County that means NWS Boston is issuing your warnings. In our southern four counties, your warnings are issued by NWS NYC. 

In advance of storm days, the SPC issues outlooks for the country. Here are the categories they use. For Connecticut, a slight risk tends to be the highest category we reach, though each season an enhanced can happen once or twice. A moderate risk is exceedingly rare in CT. 

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

June 1st is a big day in weather for a variety of reasons. First, today is the start of Meteorological Summer, which is our way of defining the four seasons for record keeping purposes. Interestingly, with the earliest possible Memorial Day this year and the latest possible Labor Day coming in September, psychologically this will be the longest "summer" we will have on the calendar in quite some time! 

Of course, real summer begins in about three weeks. The days are getting longer, our climate normals are rising, and with the start of June we move into the middle of the calendar year. This is also the start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 

This is as good a time as any to look back at the winter and spring that defined the first half of 2026, and take a look ahead at what we're thinking for summer. With a significant El Nino event increasingly likely in 2026, let's take a look at what that could mean for Connecticut's weather moving forward.

Let's dive in!

Above: Winter and Spring 2026 in Connecticut. Images taken at Great River Park in East Hartford. 

The Winter That Was
After an incredible stretch of non-winter winters for most of the 2020s, we returned to the winters we used to know in New England this year. Cold and snowy.

Let's talk cold first.

Winter Temperatures
Let's start with what we wrote in our winter forecast. We thought that a potentially strong El Nino would lead to a warmer than normal winter, but not overwhelmingly so. 

Temperature Forecast
December: 1 to 2 degrees above normal
January: 1 to 2 degrees above normal
February: -.5 degree below normal to 1 degree above normal
Winter Composite: 1-2 degrees above normal

Boy, were we wrong. If we were grading this part of the winter forecast it'd be an F. The strong Nino didn't materialize--it was delayed but won't be denied--and until the bitter end, Winter 2025-26 was defined by a return of true cold, which brought repeated Arctic blasts that dropped the state below zero on multiple occasions and into the single digits frequently.

At Bridgeport, this was the most days with lows below 10 degrees (7) since 2017. It had the most days with highs below freezing (19) since the exceptionally cold winter of 2014. Impressive numbers, but nothing outrageous or unique.  

Inland however was a bit of a different story. At Hartford (BDL), this was the most days with lows below 10 degrees (21) since 2014. That's only the fourth time we've seen 20 or more winter days that cold this century, and just the ninth time since 1970! 

​BDL also had the most days with highs below freezing (31) since the exceptionally cold winter of 2014. For a time, BDL was running the coldest in at least 30 years in terms of overall winter temperature, until the thaw at the every end moved us out of that territory. 

Above, winter statistics on BDR and BDL in chart form. You'll notice that the 1960s through 1980s were very cold for us. 

Overall, it was a very cold season relative to today's warming climate norms, but not as cold if you grew up in the 60s to 80s. 

Above: Using the 2025-26 overall winter temperature you can see that what was frigid by today's standards in the east would have been near normal during the 1961-1990 climate period. Climate periods last 30 years to provide as much data as possible on shifting climates that happen over time and has accelerated in the warmer direction in recent decades. 

Winter Precipitation
Here, we thought that we'd end up with a "near to slightly above" precipitation winter, and while not as bad as the temperature forecast, it was still a pretty dry winter.

Precipitation Forecast
December: 100% to 120% of normal
January: 90% to 110% of normal
February: 90% to 110% of normal
Winter Composite: 90% to 110% of normal

Overall, we ended with precipitation--that is the liquid number of everything that fell--between about 70-80% of normal. Although we had two big storms, we had too many dry periods that kept us below the forecast. If I were grading here, it'd be a B at best. 

As bad as it was for us, it was far worse in other parts of the region. 

Winter Snowfall
Now for what everyone cares about, snowfall. If you recall, we kicked the season off with a map of what we thought seasonal snowfall would be. Some interpreted that to be a forecast for a single storm, which led to quite a bit of side-eye and plenty of laughs. 

Snowfall Forecast
December: 50% to 70% of normal
January: 80% to 100% of normal
February: 100% to 120% of normal
March: 80% to 100% of normal

Winter Snowfall: 80%-100% of normal across Connecticut

Well, things got interesting real fast in December, with a winter pattern that set in almost immediately and continued on through one mini thaw in early January and the thaw to end February. We had two big storms, which ended up being high end and historic storms for much of the eastern U.S. in January and February. That led to a fascinating (and I'd guess rare) snowfall distribution where southern CT went well above normal in snowfall, while central and northern CT ended up right near average. 

Below you'll see that for much of coastal CT you were 20" or more above normal while in northern CT you were right around normal. 

So while it was very snowy in southern CT, in northern CT it was an average snowfall winter. You can see this even clearer in the images below. 

First, let's look at Bridgeport. It finished the 2025-26 season with 55.9" of snow! The blue line is the record winter of 1995-96 which had 73.1" of snow. The red line is this past winter. The Black dotted line is average. After that January bomb Bridgeport was locked for an above normal snowfall winter, but only slightly so. After the first bomb you had a period of virtually nothing and then BOOM! 

The second bomb put you past the all-time record pace briefly, but after that later February storm there was nothing else. Incredible season along the coast. 

But let's contrast that with BDL, which normally is the snowier spot outside of the hill towns. 

The very first thing you'll likely notice is how much less above normal the red line is compared to Bridgeport. Some of this is optical illusion--there is much more of a ceiling for snowfall in northern CT compared to the coast (the record is nearly 40" greater than Bridgeport's record)--but Bridgeport beat out BDL by a hair on snowfall overall. Note the second bump on the red line compared to Bridgeport. While the coast cashed in on that February storm, interior CT did not nearly as much. In fact, the northern CT River Valley was the "sucker zone" for that February storm. Small things can make a big difference when we're tracking snow. 

So while the forecast along the coast for winter snow was a bust, it was actually not too bad inland. Still, probably only good for a C+ given how well southern CT did. 

Our pretty "normal" winter was pretty wild. 

Above: An extraordinary satellite image showing snowfall across the eastern U.S. on February 1, 2026. Most of this in New England came from the Blizzard of 2026 in January, which ranked top 5 in the modern era (dating back to 1956) by NOAA for impact across the country. Looking at the snowfall analysis below you can see why. A second storm (pictured here) brought historic snow to the Carolinas. 

Meteorological Spring
There's not as much to say about spring, because it wasn't terribly active! Spring tends to be our quiet period, and for the most part, we had that this year. But how we moved through spring was very interesting. 

Much like Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb), Meteorological Spring (Mar-May) got off to a quick start in the sense that snow chances really diminished after the February bomb and the deepest cold backed off. But the pattern that established itself in the winter of frequent cold blasts continued. 

Spring Temperatures
Outside of SE CT, the last three months that made up spring were slightly above normal. That however, is an example of numbers diverging from how we experienced the season.

Recall that we had a few 90 degree stretches this spring. Cold temperatures overwhelmed those anomalies when you look month by month. 

Above: Overall Meteorological Spring temperatures. Right at normal in SE CT while it was slightly warmer than normal in the rest of the state. 

Our very cold February was replaced with a warmer March. 

At Bridgeport, the warmest day of March was 72, and that was on the last day of the month. 

April meanwhile was barely above normal at the coast, with Bridgeport squarely within the normal range with a +0.7 degree departure. In interior CT, where we had our first stretch of upper 80s to low 90s, the departure was +2.2. At BDL April 14 to the end of the month brought three days with highs above 85. In that same period, there were six days with highs in the 50s or colder. 

Buckle up for May. 

Somehow our cold intrusion pattern became even more pronounced in May, with most of the state finishing the month below normal! This happened despite our first heat wave of the year occurring at BDL, which lasted four days and included a 96 degree day. How do you get a big warm up like that and still end up below normal?

At BDL 19 of 31 days finished below normal. At Bridgeport, you finished almost dead center of normal at +0.3 degrees overall. 

Spring Precipitation
Spring was almost exclusively rain this year. The frequent troughs that brought the cold also brought rain, though not as much as you'd think. 

There was more rain, but not nearly enough. Fortunately, our wetter winter relative to other areas has us in somewhat better shape than our neighbors to the east and south as we head into summer, but we need more rain. 

Here's the total of precipitation since the start of Meteorological Winter six months ago. 

Overall, this means that we are behind between about 3-6" of rain from where we should be at this point in the calendar year. 

Despite the deficit, this is not enough to put us in a significant drought, and soil moisture levels aren't particularly bad at this time. That could change if we have extended dry periods, which look unlikely at the moment. 

Above: The latest drought monitor release, which has improved overall and doesn't show the most recent rainfall from the past weekend. 

Ok, we've looked back in great detail, but now summer is here. How do things look moving forward? How will the developing El Nino impact our weather?

Summer 2026 (and Beyond)
The big elephant in the room for our summer is the developing El Nino. After years of a La Nina global regime, we have a quickly developing (on the official timescale) and gradually strengthening (using current observational data) El Nino. 

Two things that stand out in the image of sea surface temperature anomalies above. The first, which may be easily spotted by you is the warmth off the South American coastline. That's a classic El Nino signal. The second, which may not be as easily spotted, is the warmth in the Pacific compared to the cooler anomalies in the Atlantic. El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, and this looks like as close to a slam dunk below normal season as I've ever seen in the Atlantic, though tropical systems will still form. 

Setting aside tropical season, let's talk temperature and precipitation. The coming El Nino is likely to officially develop in the next 60 days. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives it an 82% chance. 

For the winter lovers among us, it also gives a staggeringly high chance of 96% for it to be around during the coming winter. 

Above: CPC probabilities of El Nino conditions existing for three month periods all the way through February 2027. 

Just as important as whether there is a El Nino, La Nina, or neutral conditions, is the strength of a Nino or Nina. There are very high odds that this eventually becomes a strong Nino, with a rising chance that this is historically strong. 

As you can see above, the odds of a strong to very strong Nino are actually higher later in the year, meaning that our JJA (June, July, and August) is likely to be under the influence of a weaker El Nino. 

One of the misconceptions out there is that a strong to historic Nino means that there is strong to historic weather everywhere. There will likely be extremes in parts of the globe and country, but that's not much different from many years.

That said, we're not expecting a strong Nino during the summer months, so here's what we think things will look like assuming a weaker to moderate El Nino.  

Summer Temperatures
We can't lose sight of the fact that our summers have become warmer, especially when you factor in the humidity, so let's talk about it. It's no surprise that if you look at longer term data over the decades, the shoreline is more humid. In that region you have closer access to marine influences, and while that may take the edge off the air temperatures most days it pumps more moisture into the air. The rate at which the average summer dew point has risen is happening fastest at the coast. 

Since the mid 1990s in particular we've seen a quickening pace of higher humidity summers which has only accelerated since the mid 2010s at the coast. 

For inland areas, where a combination of downsloping in the valley on hot days that BDL sits and less proximity to marine influences from a southerly breeze on a standard warm summer day, the humidity has been rising, but not nearly to the same degree. 

Note how in the early 2000s it was increasingly humid at BDL followed by a decline in the 2010s and now new increases in the 2020s. This speaks to how geography and smaller scale features can have an impact on an annual basis, even when the overall trend is the same as in southern CT. No matter where you are in CT, if you remember summers as being more humid as they were back in the day, you're right. 
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My expectation is that it will be another humid summer, with frequent periods of dew points in the humid (above 65) range. 

As for temperature, warmer than normal seems more likely than not, especially given how the overall temperature regime from Meteorological Spring 2026 played out, but that alone should tell you that we're likely in for seesawing temperatures. 

During a strong Nino, which again, is unlikely this summer, there's typically not an extreme temperature regime either way. The sample size is small here but looks at strengthening El Nino events in 2015 and 1997. That's key because our Nino will be in the strengthening not weakening phase in 2026. 

This small sample size shows big troughing across the continental U.S., but this is unlikely. 

What we're looking at is a weaker atmospheric response. Here's what the analogs for a weak to moderate Nino since 2009-10 have looked like. 

This image above looking at rising weak to moderate Ninos in the recent past shows a far less pronounced cold signal, with near normal temperatures in New England. This look would continue troughing periods in the east, which is consistent with Nino summers. Our persistent pattern may go on for longer yet. 

Summer Precipitation
Now, this doesn't speak to the potential of severe weather, though if we do have periods of warmth and strong troughs running into warm and humid conditions we could have an active summer. The troughing signal for temperatures above makes me think that we continue to get wetter. 

If the analogs are anywhere near correct it could be quite wet. 

I don't think we're anywhere near this wet, but this raised my eyebrows when I plotted the base years above. I think overall the summer is near to just above normal in precipitation. 

Overall
If we continue on the path we've seen this year and inject a rising weak to moderate El Nino, I anticipate a slightly warmer than normal summer with continued occasional blasts of colder air from the north, along with a near to just above normal season in rainfall. I think that probably means some good thunderstorm activity during the peak heating season in late June through July, but that's speculative. Even though I expect a quiet hurricane season, it only takes one to cause a problem, and even remnant systems can bring significant rainfall. Just one of those, like the big winter bombs we had, would blow open the precipitation forecast. 

What does a strong Nino mean for Winter 2026-27?
The real answer is that it's way too early to know, but for the winter lovers among us, let's take a look at what a strong Nino, which currently stands at 2/3 odds of being in place by winter, tends to mean in temperature and precipitation. Unlike the plots above, these Nino events were peaking or falling during the winter, which is likely what we'll see this winter as well. 

That's not a great look if you like winter in the east, but hey, summer just started. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.

​-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

If you like change, and mostly quiet conditions, this is your time of year. Unlike all the other seasons, this particular part of spring brings our least hazardous weather overall. By late April, the risk of extreme heat and cold are low, severe thunderstorm season is yet to arrive, big snowstorms are a thing of the past, and hurricane season isn't even a thought. By late April, all we're really concerned with are how comfortable or miserable temperatures are, and whether we get enough precipitation to minimize the only "common" seasonal risk this time of year--brush fires. 

Last week brought the heat, with our first 90 degree day at BDL. Today brought much colder temperatures, rain, and even some snow and sleet to parts of the state. The week ahead will be similar to what most of our April has been--a seesaw that begins on the colder side, but tilts warm by the end of the week. Let's dive in. 

Above: EPS temperature anomalies for the week ahead. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is chilly. This time of the year average high temperatures are near 60, and after our cold front passage today it'll be a few days before we're back to normal. 

Tomorrow should start sunny, but it will be a seasonably chilly day with increasing clouds and a chance of rain/snow showers. Not a washout by any means, and most locations likely stay dry. Tomorrow night will be cold, and much of the state with good radiational cooling conditions should see lows drop into the upper 20s. This is why we have freeze warnings up for southern Connecticut.

Tuesday will be a quieter day with temperatures a few degrees warmer and sunny conditions. Temperatures will still be below normal however. 

Above: The 00z HRRR showing the potential for rain/snow showers in CT tomorrow--note that there's not much to write home about. Most should stay dry. 

Wednesday-Thursday
The middle of the week will have minor shower chances as another system tries to move through the region, but much like Monday, I'm not expecting too much rain. As the deepest part of the trough bringing our colder temperatures departs, we will see temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Thursday looks sunny, dry, and even warmer. 

Above: Euro depiction of surface conditions Wednesday-Thursday, with rain showers possible Wednesday as a weak low passes to our southwest. 

Friday-Sunday
The weekend is looking like it could go either way right now. Currently, I lean toward a drier and warmer weekend with no backdoor cold fronts moving through the state, but guidance has not fully resolved how much cloud and shower activity will be nearby. As it stands, I'm expecting highs in the low to mid 60s each day. 

The Dailies
Monday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation 30%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low 50s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Friday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of showers 20%. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of showers 20%. ​

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
​
Thank you for reading SCW.

​-DB