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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Overview: Season Forecast, Tracking Tropical 101, & Hurricane Preparedness

7/8/2022

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

As many of you know, I am all about tropical.

As long as I can remember, I have been most fascinated by the complexity, unpredictability, and power of tropical cyclones. The first tropical experience I remember is Hurricane Floyd in 1999, which passed right over my house in central Connecticut as a tropical storm. I remember being glued to the television and satellite as it rolled up the coast, and the power going out in my elementary school as the trees swayed in the wind. 

Of course, not all tropical systems are as "gentle" to Connecticut (and elsewhere) as a weakened tropical storm. Tropical systems, even if they are not major hurricanes, can cause catastrophic destruction over hundreds or even thousands of square miles. Hurricanes have, even in recent years, been responsible for thousands of deaths, mostly from flooding and the aftermath of the storm. As we have seen firsthand, Connecticut is not immune from tropical impacts, as the state received direct impacts from a highly unusual four systems last season: Fred (remnants), Tropical Storm Elsa, Tropical Storm Henri, and after the worst hurricane impact last year in the US--the remnants of Major Hurricane Ida. 

Connecticut has not seen a landfalling hurricane since Hurricane Gloria in 1985. It has not seen a major (Category 3+) hurricane since 1954. The closest hurricane approach was Bob, in 1991. 

It has become a common phrase, but we are long overdue for a hurricane strike in New England. Although we have had a number of storms like Irene, Sandy, and Isaias that have helped cull the overgrown and dead trees in CT, it may not be enough. It is not hyperbole to say that a bona fide hurricane strike would be catastrophic in New England depending on the exact track. 

At SCW, we believe in preparation over panic. This special discussion is designed to help readers understand the basics of tropical systems and tracking so you know to prepare long before any type of system, whether a hurricane or tropical remnants, threatens Connecticut. 

Let's start with the basics. 
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Above: the statistical hurricane return period. For CT, we should expect a hurricane landfall (direct hit) every 17-18 years. It has been 37 years since our last landfall. 
New England Climatology & How to Track
In New England, the hurricane return period is longest in the nation with good reason. it is difficult to get a tropical system up this way.

That cuts both ways. A damaging storm is less likely each year, but it also means that when a damaging storm does happen, the impacts are more severe because the infrastructure has not been built to be resilient in the face of wind and water damage.

​There is no better illustration of this than Tropical Storm Isaias, where thousands of trees and branches on hundreds of power lines caused extreme power outages. 

In order for a tropical system to truly threaten New England, you need to thread the needle between a strong ridge of high pressure to our north/east that would block the exit of a tropical system, and a trough to the west of the region (in the Great Lakes region especially, but the Ohio Valley could work too, along with a cutoff low which would almost guarantee an impact) that induces a northward to north-northeastward motion of a system off the southeast US coast. Depending on the trough orientation, sometimes that can cause a northwestward movement, like Henri last year. 

For the purposes of our illustration though, we look at an imperfect, but obvious example from 2020's Tropical Storm Isaias.
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Above is the GFS showing the overall progression of the system. Off the SE coast, there is Isaias. Contrary to popular belief, these powerful hurricanes are little more than a leaf floating on an atmospheric river, and are very sensitive to the position and strength to troughs and ridges in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Here, there is a big ridge to the east that prevents escape, and a big trough in the Great Lakes region (perhaps a little far west for a classic New England landfall) that pulls the system inland over the Carolinas and north. The center of Isaias moved to our west, but we had major wind damage. If you see a similar ridge/trough combination, watch out. 

Often, we see troughing over the region or just to our west, and no ridge. That forces systems well out to sea well before it reaches our shores. That's what I call a "kicker" and that's the predominant pattern right now. Seeing this pattern is how we know that most of the time we see a system off the US coast we know it is going to recurve harmlessly out to sea.

The upper level pattern is critical. 


When tracking tropical, utilize ensemble forecasts heavily when there is a weak or emerging signal for a system to develop. Using operational guidance like the Euro or GFS will steer you in the wrong direction if you don't know what to look for.

If someone posts something from 10 days out of a hurricane hitting the area, it's almost certainly hype and should be ignored until there's more data. 

A great example of the complexity of hurricanes is Hurricane Henri last year. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the most accurate tropical forecasting organization in the US and quite likely on the planet. This was their forecast within 48 hours of landfall, showing a strong tropical storm making landfall near New Haven!

Just 24 hours later, right before landfall, it was much further east. 

We know what happened. Henri weakened on approach and made landfall in Westerly. That's a small change that made a huge difference.

Bottom line, these things are too unpredictable to ignore or wait until the last minute to prepare for.  

One more fact to underline this point: of all the category 5 hurricanes to hit the US, none of them were major hurricanes in the 72 hours before impact.

Things change fast in tropical forecasting. Choose preparation over panic. 
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The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
So, what can I expect this hurricane season?

Plenty of activity. ​
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Our very active period over the last half decade looks to continue. Every major factor points to another well above normal to potentially hyperactive season, and as a result, you see every major tropical forecasting entity above has an above average forecast. Note that this forecast includes the 3 named storms that have already formed. 

I am in line with Colorado State University, who is my go-to for detailed technical tropical analysis. We both predict 10 hurricanes and 5 majors, and I go ever so slightly higher on named storms because every year we seem to get a surprise quick spin up that adds to the numbers. 

Right now, conditions are not favorable for development, but that's normal. Based on the three systems we already have, we are already about a month ahead of a normal season. 

The guidance suggests that pattern will change by the end of the month, and we are likely to be rapidly ramping up to the peak of the season weeks before the average peak in September. Even more so this year because of the pattern coming into view. 
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Above image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center. It shows the historical ramp up of the hurricane season. Usually late August into September is primetime. 

What are those factors?
First and foremost, we are in a La Nina. La Nina is huge because it influences weather patterns on a global scale. In a Nina, the Atlantic usually sees significantly reduced wind shear. Lower wind shear is critical to allowing tropical cyclones to develop and develop into hurricanes and major hurricanes. A La Nina also allows for more atmospheric instability over the ocean, a good breeding ground for the thunderstorms that eventually organize and become hurricanes. 
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Above image courtesy of NOAA. 

A second factor is sea surface temperatures and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential/Oceanic Heat Content. It may not feel like it since it's still early July, but the extent and depth of warm sea temperatures are critical. This year, as we've seen for nearly a decade, we expect high levels of heat content in the ocean. Of particular importance to me are the warm anomalies in the Main Development Region, the central and eastern Atlantic--where big storms form, and in the Gulf/Southeast Coast--where storms maintain intensity on final approach. Both look robust. 
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Above, the current sea surface temperature anomalies. It's warm off the US coast and although it may look cold near Africa, that's exactly the kind of SST distribution that becomes a warm Main Development Region during the peak of the season. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. 
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Above is the TCHP, measuring the depth of the warmth in the ocean. This is robust, especially near the coast. This will continue to warm as we get near the peak. 

The third factor is what happens with the West African Monsoon. Most of the tropical systems we see and the vast majority of major hurricanes come from waves of convection (storms) that roll off of Africa. When the West African Monsoon is more active, as it is this year, that means expect big waves to come in August and September. 
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Above, a NOAA image of what happens when La Nina contributes to a stronger West African Monsoon. 

​What does that mean for the US and what does that mean for Connecticut?

​It's a 
big deal.
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This image above is also based off the CSU probabilities. You will see that in a normal year, our odds of a tropical system passing within 50 miles of the region is low. The odds of a major hurricane or hurricane strike are always low. 

CSU forecasters use projected Net Tropical Cyclone Activity against their forecast to determine the probabilities for impact this season, and also utilize climatology statistics from different periods. For more information about their report, you can read it here. Details on how they calculate their probabilities can be found on Pg 2 and 40-42. 

Statistically, we see much higher probabilities for Connecticut this year. To be clear, the odds are low for a hurricane and especially major hurricane in an absolute sense, but they are about as high as you'd see them given that the odds are calculated based on projected activity. 

The basic takeaway is this: the more active the hurricane season, the more likely we see a tropical impact here. I don't believe we'll see the four systems we saw last year, but with a well above average season, statistically New England ​has a much higher chance of a tropical impact. At this range, it's impossible to say if that potential will be realized. Rather than speculate, I will just say that we will be watching.

Currently, the predominant pattern would likely prohibit any tropical activity from reaching us, but with peak summer coming where ridging generally becomes more dominant, I do think the pattern will change.

To what, we will have to wait and see.  

How do I prepare?
Hurricane Strong is a national resilience initiative that works to try to prepare residents for hurricane season. It only takes one storm--like an Irene, Isaias, or Ida, to make a season very bad for you. Preparing now could be a series of small steps that save you time, money, and worry in the future. 

The Four Basics
1. Know Your Zone--know your evacuation zone in case you need to leave. In CT, that's most likely to be right at the coast, where flooding would occur. The majority of deaths caused by tropical systems are flood related--storm surge or inland flooding. You can find the evacuation maps here. 

2. Make A Plan--this seems self-explanatory, but what would you do if you lost power? Needed to evacuate? Needed to get supplies? Check in on a loved one? Having a plan now will save you time and worry later. 

3. Build An Emergency Kit--You don't need to make all your purchases at once, but if you wait until a day or two before a storm hits you will run into empty shelves for some items and potentially higher prices. This can be helpful even if there isn't a storm. 

4. Stay Informed--Get your information from trusted sources. Don't panic or dismiss a threat just because of one model run or model cycle. Stay level headed and use quality information to make an informed decision. 
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I will end this discussion the same way I did last year. 

This season we need to be prepared.

The center of Tropical Storm Isaias passed to our west, which put us on the windy side of the storm. It wasn't a hurricane. It was a weakening tropical storm that was interacting with a trough and it caused extensive damage. Hundreds of thousands of customers lost power for days. Many were caught unprepared. This is an image from the Journal Inquirer of East Hartford, where the town was impacted with substantial tree damage and power outages. 

In each of the last two active Atlantic seasons, we saw significant impacts from tropical storms. No one should be surprised that another active season with similar conditions could bring similar results. 
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The best way to prepare is to prepare when there is no storm imminent.

SCW will be here every step of the way.

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on 
Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Finally, I would be remiss if I also didn't take a moment to acknowledge the late Dr. William Gray, who was an inspiration as I grew up. It is an honor to forecast for you utilizing many of the methods he pioneered. For more on the incredible CSU meteorologists, visit their website. 
​
Thank you for reading and trusting SCW. 
​
-DB​ 
Follow @SouthernCTWX
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Grading our Forecast of Tropical Storm Henri...

8/27/2021

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Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Now that things are a little less hectic, it is time for us to review our final call forecast of Tropical Storm Henri. Henri was a hurricane but weakened to a tropical storm before landfall with estimated maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

While the subjective impact in Connecticut was less than expected, we deal in data. How well did we actually do?

​Let's take a look. 
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Above: the track of Henri, which briefly became a hurricane in the day before final landfall, using "best track" data. The final official track will be issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in a final tropical cyclone report. 

Timing
We expected the first rain to reach the coast between 3-5am and that was spot on. It was a close call as we saw a quasi-PRE just south of the state that brought extremely heavy rain to the NYC and NJ area. We expected tropical storm conditions to begin along the coast by 8am and that was a bit late--though wind was never really high end in this storm. The progression of the storm was accurate, but at the time of the forecast we were unsure about Monday. Overall, a good forecast. 

Grade: B+

Landfall Location & Intensity
Despite all of the guidance seemingly shifting east at the last minute, we were unmoved in keeping the landfall zone between New Haven and Westerly, RI. In the end, that was a great call, with Henri making landfall right at the eastern edge of our zone, as we stated in our final call. 

That said, intensity was a miss. To be clear, it's not like it was a big miss, as we anticipated a 70 mph landfall and got 60 mph, but we should have accounted for additional weakening causing a general lack of wind across more of CT. While the wind did occur in parts of CT, it was not nearly as strong or widespread.

Averaging out the A for the landfall location and C for intensity, we end up with a B for this category. 

Grade: B
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Wind
The less intense winds were good for the state, but bad for the forecast. Here's what we forecasted:

"We think that the eastward shift in track has reduced the wind potential slightly, but it won't really make much difference in the scheme of things. We expect the following during the worst part of the storm: 


  • Coastal areas: Sustained winds of 40-55 mph with gusts between 60-70 mph. Some isolated areas in SE CT may see higher gusts. Winds will be stronger the closer you are to the center, meaning the stronger winds will likely be east of New Haven and strongest in New London County. 

  • Inland areas: Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts between 45-55 mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near the center of the system."   

According to the Public Information Statement issued by the NWS on August 22, BDL recorded a gust to 44 mph, HFD recorded a gust to 43 mph, and Willimantic recorded a gust to 40 mph. That was short of our forecast range, but not terribly off. Note that these areas were closest to the center at one point. 

Along the coast, it was ugly. According to the Public Information Statement issued by the NYC NWS on August 22, Middletown recorded a gust of 47 mph, Groton got to 53 mph, but everything was 40 mph or lower. That's a terrible bust on our part. 

While we did specifically state that weakening would be taking place at landfall, and that being closer to the storm would increase the threat of damaging winds--exactly what happened in eastern and SE CT--that doesn't really help the grade.

Grade: D

Coastal Hazards
Data on the amount of surge and coastal erosion is hard to come by, but overall it looked like the coastal hazards were not as high impact as anticipated. That's likely due to the weakening that took place and more importantly, the intensification that never reached high end levels in the hours before landfall, which would have pushed more water into the Sound.

​That said, coastal hazards from landfalling tropical systems are one of the biggest threats we have in CT, and we would not have changed the forecast even with the benefit of hindsight. 

Grade: C

Severe Weather
Not much to be said here. This was an accurate forecast. The potential was isolated to eastern CT and while we did not see tornadoes, we saw three confirmed just to the NE of CT.  


Grade: A-

Rainfall
We warned followers that this would be a long duration rain event, and it was, lasting Sunday and Monday. We were a little too aggressive with our western zone rain forecast, but overall the 2-5 inch rain zone in eastern CT worked perfectly and the 5-10 inch zone worked in central CT, albeit on the lower end.

There was major flash flooding in spots, with major highways like I-91 and Rt. 2 closed for a period due to flooding. In my town of East Hartford, the Hockanum River saw a top 5 (preliminary) flooding event. Even so, we dodged a bullet for the widespread kind of flooding we thought was possible. 

Grade: A-

Observed storm total rainfall image courtesy of the National Weather Service (Boston). 
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Power Outages
We said power outages would be high to extreme impact and they weren't. Once again good for the state and terrible for the forecast. Winds did not verify, especially in coastal sections of CT, and that kept outages below even 50,000. Big bust. Lowest grade of the forecast. 

Grade: F


Overall Impact
We thought this would be a high impact event statewide and that wasn't the case. It was not on par with the big events we've seen recently, though we did have significant flooding take place in multiple parts of the state which helps the grade.

Although it was good that the impact was much lower overall, it only raises the chance that people are complacent in advance of the next big storm. I continue to believe that a bona fide hurricane making landfall in Connecticut would be catastrophic in Connecticut given our infrastructure and tree density.

It has been 30 years since Hurricane Bob made landfall to our east and 36 years since our last direct hurricane strike, Gloria. Our last major hurricane strike was the Great Hurricane of 1938, or the Long Island Express. Statistically, we are overdue for a hurricane strike and long overdue for a major hurricane impact. 

Grade: C-

Final Grade
Let's recap the grades that make up our final grade. Each are weighed equally. 

Timing: B+
Landfall Location & Intensity: B
Wind: D
Coastal Hazards: C
Severe Weather: A-
Rainfall: A-
Power Outages: F
Overall Impact: C-


This leads to our final grade, a decent but disappointing C+.


For this forecaster, who has closely studied and tracked tropical weather for more than 20 years, it is extremely disappointing personally to miss on the forecast, especially the wind and power outage aspects of the storm.

That said, I know that tropical meteorology is one of the hardest forecasting areas in the entire field, and a landfall on the other end of our zone, New Haven, would have produced vastly different results even at a landfall of 60 mph. These forecasts are always close, and that's why we work so hard to provide you with the latest information and hype-free analysis that is always backed up by data. 

We will continue providing the highest quality service we can, no matter how much nature complies. Grading ourselves after major events to hold ourselves accountable and learn from our mistakes is one way we do that. 
​
A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading and trusting SCW. 
​
-DB
Follow @SouthernCTWX
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Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches Expected to be Issued in Parts of New England Tomorrow as the Threat From Tropical Storm Henri Increases...

8/19/2021

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

The potential and concern is increasing as computer guidance begins to hone in on the forecast for Tropical Storm Henri, which is currently sitting off the southeast coast of the US. In this update, we will provide a brief overview of where things stand and go into detail in the three scenarios we think are most likely for Henri as it moves toward New England. We expect tropical storm or hurricane watches to be issued for parts of New England, especially eastern New England, as early as tomorrow morning. 

We are still too far out to get into specific details, but let this be the takeaway tonight: Henri, whether it is a tropical storm or hurricane, poses a serious threat to New England. This will not be a locked in forecast until much later, and now is the time to prepare. 
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Above: the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) track. This will likely change, as computer guidance this evening has continued to push the system west and perhaps more importantly, slows the system down and hooks it west rather than east over New England. That would have massive implications for the entire region. 

Overview
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Above: latest IR imagery of Henri. After dealing with shear today, Henri looks very impressive with a developing outflow channel and deep convection near the center. This is a storm poised to intensify barring any surprises. 

Tropical Storm Henri is currently moving westward under the first upper level ridge that we discussed last night. The ridge has also been creating shear, which has been keeping the strength of Henri in check. That shear will decrease however over the next 12-24 hours, and that will set the stage for strengthening. 

As that happens, a trough over the US will cut off and influence Henri. That will turn it north and effectively slingshot it toward New England. As discussed last night, as that happens another ridge will build over Canada, closing off the final escape route and all but guaranteeing that there's at the very least an extremely close approach by Henri. 
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The Scenarios
We have high confidence that a turn north will bring Henri extremely close to New England. Now the devil is in the details. We have identified the three most likely scenarios for Connecticut as Henri gets to New England. The illustrations provided are only intended to show what the scenario would look like. Again, DO NOT LOCK IT IN. 

Scenario #1--Near Miss/Glancing Blow
In this scenario, Henri comes north but rather than being pulled closer to CT, it passes just offshore of Cape Cod and continues a northeast heading away from the region.

This would spare most of CT from significant rain or wind on Sunday and Monday, but it would still bring coastal impacts. Along the shore in this scenario you could probably expect minor to moderate coastal flooding, rip currents, and relatively significant wave heights, especially in SE CT. For most, this would be a minor event at best with a little rain and maybe some breezes. 

The illustration here comes from the midday 12z GFS run. 
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Scenario #2--Landfall East/Moderate Impact
In this scenario, Henri continues a northward heading right into an area between Charlestown, RI and Martha's Vineyard. It also slows down significantly upon landfall, but keeps moving away from the region. 

This would bring much more wind and rain to the state Sunday afternoon into Monday. It'd likely bring tropical storm conditions to central and eastern CT, heavy rain throughout the state with the heaviest in central and eastern CT, and coastal flooding impacts along the CT shoreline. This would be a meaningful hit, with flash flooding, coastal flooding, and substantial power outages.  

For this illustration, we use the latest 18z GFS model run. Note that a shift west would bring even more wind and rain into CT and that looks possible given the totality of the guidance you don't see here. 
​
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Scenario #3--Direct Hit/High Impact
This scenario, while not currently most likely, is something that is increasingly viable and why we are hitting preparation so hard. In this scenario, Henri makes landfall between New Haven and Westerly, RI. A track this far west means that Henri has maximized its intensity potential. Not good at all. Even worse, it'd be hitting and likely stalling over the state or just south of it Sunday into Monday. 

I cannot emphasize enough how bad this would be, and it would be almost irrelevant if Henri is a strong tropical storm or category one hurricane. This would likely be high impact at least, and I am intentional in my wording here.

In this scenario we'd see long duration tropical storm to hurricane conditions, very heavy rain that could produce major river and flash flooding, and major coastal flooding depending on the heading (direction) and location of the storm. Widespread power outages would be likely, along with extensive tree damage.

For those that follow us, you know we don't like hyperbole. We say what we see and it is backed up by facts. This would really be a worst case scenario for Connecticut. You need to be prepared in case this comes to pass.

Rather than illustrate here, (if you want to see the model run I considered, look up the 12z Ukmet model), I am going to post the hot off the presses European Ensembles, which show another shift west that puts this potential scenario into greater play. Again, as I have posted already, DO NOT LOCK THIS IN. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
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Key Takeaways
1) Additional changes to both the track and intensity forecast remain likely. We now know that an extremely close approach is highly likely. The final outcome is highly dependent on small changes in the steering pattern and intensity. Odds have increased for at least a moderate impact event. The forecast is coming into greater focus. DO NOT lock into specific computer model runs.

2) NOW is the time to prepare. Even in the worst case scenario, choose preparation over panic. Check your generators, supplies, and plans. Now is the time to act. 

3) Timing for impacts currently look to be Sunday afternoon and Monday. This remains the same as yesterday, but conditions could begin to deteriorate under Scenario #2 and 3 as early as Sunday morning. 

SCW will be providing updates as we receive additional information. As we track this system, please understand that we will be much slower to respond than usual. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ 
Follow @SouthernCTWX
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SCW Period of Interest Declared as Tropical Storm Henri Poses Increasing Threat to New England...

8/18/2021

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Let's be clear right off the bat: there is still a lot to sort out. 

This post is to help provide you with an overview of Tropical Storm Henri, our latest thoughts, and key points that you should take away. This information will change as we get closer to the potential event. Let's dive in. 

Overview
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Above: the latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The shift was expected given the consistent signal from guidance of a more westward moving system, but the change in track--some 150 miles on day 5--is a highly unusual change for the NHC. 

Below, the latest infrared imagery of Tropical Storm Henri at 9pm, which is officially just below hurricane status. It is a well organized but sheared system that is currently moving toward the US coast in a westward heading that will likely turn to the north by Friday. Image courtesy of the fantastic Tropical Tidbits website. 
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Henri took a lot of folks by surprise by quickly developing into a tropical depression this weekend. In fact, none of the guidance had development predicted 84 hours before it developed! That's a huge surprise in the era of computer models. Henri has continued to surprise, by developing into a stronger system and moving more and more southward, which has opened the door to potential impacts in New England. 

Seemingly the entire time, the computer models have been playing catch up. 
Latest Thoughts
We are declaring Sunday and Monday a SCW Period of Interest because we believe the steering pattern is looking increasingly conducive for direct impacts (wind, rain, possible coastal flooding) from Henri. 

First, let's take a look at the steering pattern. What you will see below are the last two GFS runs looking at the 500mb pattern. Higher heights and ridging (high pressure) will be the red shading and arched lines, and troughing (low pressure) will be the blue shading and sagging lines. 
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So what's happening here? In the Atlantic you can see Henri. On the left, it becomes a powerful hurricane quickly and on the right it becomes a hurricane, albeit a bit later. Henri travels west tonight and Thursday under the Atlantic ridge we've been talking about all season, and turns north around it on Friday. That's when it is generally believed it starts to intensify.

As it is moving up the coast, a trough swoops in from the Mid-Atlantic. This is critical, because it is oriented to "capture" Henri rather than kick it out to sea. As this happens, Henri turns gets pulled back toward the coast. This is when the final piece comes in. In Canada, you can see a big ridge that develops. This effectively closes off the final escape route for Henri, and the result is clear. On the left, this GFS run portrays a hurricane making landfall just south of Connecticut and slowly moving over the state as it weakens. On the right, the system weakens but hits the Cape Cod portion of New England. 

What does this all mean?
There is increasing confidence that the steering pattern will allow for at the very least a close approach by Henri this Sunday or Monday. The devil's in the details however, and it is too early to say whether there will be a direct CT impact or more of a glancing blow. This means it is too early to talk about rainfall, wind, or flooding potential. 

What makes this forecast difficult?
Intensity. Intensity forecasting in tropical meteorology is one of the hardest fields in the entire space, and it is critical to this overall forecast. There has been a strong correlation during Henri's life cycle between a stronger system and a further south/west track. This is because a stronger storm is deeper, and more able to feel the push from the ridge toward to the coast. Henri is expected to see a more hostile environment for the next 24 hours, and the stronger this storm is, the more west it is likely to track toward New England. 
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Above: an animation courtesy of weathermodels.com of the 18z European Ensembles. The Euro/EPS has been furthest behind in modeling this system, but even tonight, we see the most westward shift yet. The stronger lows depicted above, are furthest west. This highlights the sensitivity of the forecast. 
Key Takeaways

1) Additional changes to both the track and intensity forecast are likely. The final outcome is highly dependent on small changes in the steering pattern and intensity. For now, it is important to know that a significant event is increasingly likely, but not certain. DO NOT lock into specific computer model runs.

2) This is not a time to panic. Chose preparation. We have been talking about the steering pattern for weeks to prepare you for this potential. Check your preparedness plan and supplies. Tropical Storm watches could be issued as early as Friday. 

3) Timing for impacts currently look to be Sunday afternoon and Monday. Plan accordingly, but know that things can still change depending on track.

SCW will be providing updates as we receive additional information that needs to be shared. As we track this system, please understand that we may be much slower to respond than usual. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​
Follow @SouthernCTWX
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Tropical Storm Elsa Poised to Impact Connecticut Friday...Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Parts of the CT Coastline...

7/8/2021

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Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

GP first noted the need for watching the tropics on June 24th, and today, the coastal area from New Haven east to the New Hampshire border is under a tropical storm warning. What we've been mentioning and tracking for the last few weeks has come to fruition.

Tropical Storm Elsa formed from a strong tropical wave in the Atlantic and was able to take advantage of a steering pattern that will allow it to continue its trek up the East Coast after making landfall yesterday in Florida.

This will be a quick hitter, and we are expecting minor impacts in NW CT and moderate impacts elsewhere due to a combination of heavy rain and wind. 
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Above: the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) track. The NHC has done a phenomenal job forecasting Elsa. 
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Above: the current watches and warnings for CT. As I mentioned, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect just east of Bridgeport to the edge of CT, including inland New London County. Flash Flood Watches are up for all of CT. 

Timing & Impacts
GP will be back later with an updated forecast, but right now we expect a minor impact in NW CT and moderate impacts in central and SE CT. There is going to be more storms today in advance of Elsa, but we expect Elsa's impacts to begin after midnight. The worst of the storm is likely to be in the overnight and early morning period and clear of Connecticut by Friday evening.  

​The biggest hazard will be heavy rain, as much of CT has been in an unusually wet period. In fact, the WPC has issued a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for much of central CT.

This is a reminder--since I saw it while in Florida documenting Elsa--that it is never a good idea to drive through a flooded road, especially if the water is moving. If you encounter a flooded road, turn around, and never go around barricades! Yes, believe it or not, people do this.  

With regard to wind, we do anticipate gusts between 25-35mph inland and 40-50mph in coastal and SE CT. This isn't likely to be anywhere close to Isaias, though scattered power outages are possible. 

Finally, there is a conditional tornado threat in SE CT, depending on the exact track.

​Overall, this isn't a storm to rush to the supermarket and stock up over, but you should be reviewing your emergency preparedness supplies and be prepared for a moderate impact storm. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
​-SCW Team (written by DB)
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