Disc: We have to endure about another 18 hrs or so of much below norm temps before a pattern much more typical of mid-spring sets in.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from the Srn Plains to the SE Coast. Low pressure over New Brunswick province is aiding in producing a pressure gradient and strong winds.
Tonight: You may want to leave delicate plants inside or at least covered up for one more night, esp away from the cities and S coast. Winds should be lighter than last night, which should allow for better radiative conditions. Therefore, I've gone a few deg below guidance. As is typical on a night like this, there will be wide ranges in temps. Lows will avg out near 30, but mid 20s are possible in the NW hills and sheltered valleys, w/mid 30s in the cities and S coast.
Tomorrow: Temps moderate and winds diminish. It will still be breezy, however, and an isolated rogue gust to 30 MPH is not out of the question. W/advection near neutral, I've gone close to guidance on temps. Expect highs generally around 60, except 60-65 along the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sat is definitely the winner of the weekend. Clouds will increase, but rain from the next system will remain well to our S and W. For temps, I've gone close to guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there. Look for highs generally in the mid 60s. If we stay sunny long enough, some upper 60s are possible along the I 91 corridor!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The main system for the long term is a coastal low progged to develop later Sat, then head up the coast Sun. The low track is ideal for a quick-hitting, but heavy slug of rain on Sun, mainly in the morning hours. There could be a larger-than-normal temp diff between NE CT and SW CT Sun afternoon, if any clearing occurs over SW CT. For now, given that we are still three days out, I will not get too cute w/temps. But I want to mention this as a possibility. Having mentioned all this, I am stil expecting clouds to dominate the day throughout the state, and if the SW does get any sun, it will not be until well after optimum sun angle. So I have gone a few deg below guidance, w/mostly upper 50s expected for highs.
The rest of the long term should be fairly benign, with generally moderating temps. Mon could start out a bit chilly, w/fresh CAA behind the departing storm. In addition, Mon should be windy, w/gusts to 40 MPH quite possible. For temps, I went close to guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there. Highs should mainly be in the mid 60s.
For Tue, winds should still stay up for a while, with gusts to 35 MPH still possible, esp in the first half of the day. For temps, again stayed close to guidance, w/just a few local adjustments. Highs should range from the mid to upper 60s, w/the coolest readings along the S coast.
High pressure moves offshore for Wed, so temps should respond by turning warmer. Temp guidance looks fine at this range. Highs should be in the low to mid 70s, w/the coolest readings along the S coast.
For Thu, I went a couple deg above guidance. Guidance has a tendency to bias toward climo at that range, and we'll be above climo. There could be a wide range in temps on Thu, w/only near 70 along the S coast, mid 70s for much of the state, and near 80 in the I 91 cities. Way too far out to get cute w/temps.
The long range looks quite a bit uncertain, but a lot more typical for spring. All in all, I think temps in the day 8-14 avg out somewhere near norm. There will be an intense thermal gradient nearby. It is not impossible for some areas to be in the low 50s w/rain and others, less than 200 miles away, to be sunny and near 90. That is not too uncommon this time of yr.
W/only one significant system progged to affect the area in the next seven days, there will be just one graphic today. This map, valid around dawn on Sun, shows low pressure right over the Del Bay. Precip tapers off quickly after the low center passes by. This is why some clearing could occur in SW CT late in the day, but NE CT prob remains socked in all day.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from the Srn Plains to the SE Coast. Low pressure over New Brunswick province is aiding in producing a pressure gradient and strong winds.
Tonight: You may want to leave delicate plants inside or at least covered up for one more night, esp away from the cities and S coast. Winds should be lighter than last night, which should allow for better radiative conditions. Therefore, I've gone a few deg below guidance. As is typical on a night like this, there will be wide ranges in temps. Lows will avg out near 30, but mid 20s are possible in the NW hills and sheltered valleys, w/mid 30s in the cities and S coast.
Tomorrow: Temps moderate and winds diminish. It will still be breezy, however, and an isolated rogue gust to 30 MPH is not out of the question. W/advection near neutral, I've gone close to guidance on temps. Expect highs generally around 60, except 60-65 along the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sat is definitely the winner of the weekend. Clouds will increase, but rain from the next system will remain well to our S and W. For temps, I've gone close to guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there. Look for highs generally in the mid 60s. If we stay sunny long enough, some upper 60s are possible along the I 91 corridor!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): The main system for the long term is a coastal low progged to develop later Sat, then head up the coast Sun. The low track is ideal for a quick-hitting, but heavy slug of rain on Sun, mainly in the morning hours. There could be a larger-than-normal temp diff between NE CT and SW CT Sun afternoon, if any clearing occurs over SW CT. For now, given that we are still three days out, I will not get too cute w/temps. But I want to mention this as a possibility. Having mentioned all this, I am stil expecting clouds to dominate the day throughout the state, and if the SW does get any sun, it will not be until well after optimum sun angle. So I have gone a few deg below guidance, w/mostly upper 50s expected for highs.
The rest of the long term should be fairly benign, with generally moderating temps. Mon could start out a bit chilly, w/fresh CAA behind the departing storm. In addition, Mon should be windy, w/gusts to 40 MPH quite possible. For temps, I went close to guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there. Highs should mainly be in the mid 60s.
For Tue, winds should still stay up for a while, with gusts to 35 MPH still possible, esp in the first half of the day. For temps, again stayed close to guidance, w/just a few local adjustments. Highs should range from the mid to upper 60s, w/the coolest readings along the S coast.
High pressure moves offshore for Wed, so temps should respond by turning warmer. Temp guidance looks fine at this range. Highs should be in the low to mid 70s, w/the coolest readings along the S coast.
For Thu, I went a couple deg above guidance. Guidance has a tendency to bias toward climo at that range, and we'll be above climo. There could be a wide range in temps on Thu, w/only near 70 along the S coast, mid 70s for much of the state, and near 80 in the I 91 cities. Way too far out to get cute w/temps.
The long range looks quite a bit uncertain, but a lot more typical for spring. All in all, I think temps in the day 8-14 avg out somewhere near norm. There will be an intense thermal gradient nearby. It is not impossible for some areas to be in the low 50s w/rain and others, less than 200 miles away, to be sunny and near 90. That is not too uncommon this time of yr.
W/only one significant system progged to affect the area in the next seven days, there will be just one graphic today. This map, valid around dawn on Sun, shows low pressure right over the Del Bay. Precip tapers off quickly after the low center passes by. This is why some clearing could occur in SW CT late in the day, but NE CT prob remains socked in all day.
Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
