Disc: This is beginning to shape up to be a pattern where a medium and long range forecaster does not get much sleep, if you believe the chaos in the modeling to be any indication of low-confidence in actual forecasts, but more on that later.
Currently: Decaying primary over KMSP, sfc low over KNYC. This storm is beginning to pull out of the area. Light rain/drizzle may transition to snow, esp N & W, but any accums look very limited except maybe in the NW Hills. Black ice could be a concern, but I think I'll limit that to sheltered valleys, since other locations should have enough wind to mitigate that concern.
Tonight: Basically already covered the first 1/2 of tonight in the "current" section. I went a few deg under guidance for lows. Skies will prob clear quicker than modeled, there is decent CAA and much of the state has some snowcover, so we'll radiate fairly efficiently, despite some winds. Lows mostly in the upper 20s. Winds will gust to near 30 MPH at times, adding a chill to the air.
Tomorrow: Very quiet day. Temps generally near normal, NBM guidance followed closely. Still some wind gusts to 30 MPH early in the day, diminishing as the day goes on. Generally mostly sunny, but could go p/cldy in the afternoon from diurnal cumulus. Temps generally in the low 40s for highs, maybe a few mid 40s in the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: A cold front will go thru on Sun w/o much fanfare. There could be a passing flurry w/this feature in the NW hills. Temps could be a bit tricky and could max out around noon, before the fropa. The most notable wx behind the front will be wind, w/some gusts to near 40 MPH. Generally followed temp guidance closely, but I went below guidance in the NW Hills, w/early fropa. Highs generally near 40, maybe only mid 30s in the NW Hills.
Long Term: The wx begins to get more interesting and more low-confidence as we head into the long term.
Mon: Fair, but cool and windy. Again followed temp guidance pretty closely, and applied the same logic as w/Sun. High temps generally low 40s, except some upper 30s in the NW hills. Winds gust 35-40 MPH thruout the day.
Tue: W/no more CAA at all, generally followed guidance closely again, but this time went warmer along I 91. Highs generally near 40, but 40-45 along I 91. Winds gradually diminish thru the day. A few gusts to 35 MPH possible in the AM.
Wed: Developing NE flow pulls cooler air down from high press to the N. This means a cooler day. Went just a tad under guidance, w/highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Thu: I am going way under temp guidance. There is a strong CAA signal and the NBM guidance is contaminated with outliers that have a faster storm. So highs of 30-35 seems reasonable. For now, will just call it increasing clouds, but keep the day dry.
Fri: Here is where the wx really gets complicated. It's the American model (GFS) vs the foreigners. The foreign models have a westward track, which would mean rain, or snow changing to rain. The GFS model has a major snow storm. Either way, it is a very large storm and would feature very strong winds both during and on the back side of the low. For now, the only thing that is certain is that a storm is coming and there will be significant amounts of pcpn and wind. Subtle differences in the atmospheric setup, especially at 500 MB, will result in major differences in storm track and sensible wx here. For now, I have the fcst about 60% in the GFS camp, only to preserve continuity w/trends. However, as I said, this fcst is of very low confidence! Because of the low conf fcst, I did not make any significant adjustments to temp guidance, maybe just a deg or so lower in spots. Highs generally fcst 30-35 for now.
LR: The LR pattern may hinge largely on what happens w/the Fri storm. Much of the guidance that has an inland track flips us to a warmer pattern after New Years. However, the guidance that has big snows Fri has a frigid and snowy pattern. Either way, there could be 1-2 more snow threats before any potential breaks in the pattern.
I posted two graphics today, both for the Fri storm. One is the GFS and the other is the Canadian model, just to give an idea of the differences in modeling.
Currently: Decaying primary over KMSP, sfc low over KNYC. This storm is beginning to pull out of the area. Light rain/drizzle may transition to snow, esp N & W, but any accums look very limited except maybe in the NW Hills. Black ice could be a concern, but I think I'll limit that to sheltered valleys, since other locations should have enough wind to mitigate that concern.
Tonight: Basically already covered the first 1/2 of tonight in the "current" section. I went a few deg under guidance for lows. Skies will prob clear quicker than modeled, there is decent CAA and much of the state has some snowcover, so we'll radiate fairly efficiently, despite some winds. Lows mostly in the upper 20s. Winds will gust to near 30 MPH at times, adding a chill to the air.
Tomorrow: Very quiet day. Temps generally near normal, NBM guidance followed closely. Still some wind gusts to 30 MPH early in the day, diminishing as the day goes on. Generally mostly sunny, but could go p/cldy in the afternoon from diurnal cumulus. Temps generally in the low 40s for highs, maybe a few mid 40s in the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: A cold front will go thru on Sun w/o much fanfare. There could be a passing flurry w/this feature in the NW hills. Temps could be a bit tricky and could max out around noon, before the fropa. The most notable wx behind the front will be wind, w/some gusts to near 40 MPH. Generally followed temp guidance closely, but I went below guidance in the NW Hills, w/early fropa. Highs generally near 40, maybe only mid 30s in the NW Hills.
Long Term: The wx begins to get more interesting and more low-confidence as we head into the long term.
Mon: Fair, but cool and windy. Again followed temp guidance pretty closely, and applied the same logic as w/Sun. High temps generally low 40s, except some upper 30s in the NW hills. Winds gust 35-40 MPH thruout the day.
Tue: W/no more CAA at all, generally followed guidance closely again, but this time went warmer along I 91. Highs generally near 40, but 40-45 along I 91. Winds gradually diminish thru the day. A few gusts to 35 MPH possible in the AM.
Wed: Developing NE flow pulls cooler air down from high press to the N. This means a cooler day. Went just a tad under guidance, w/highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Thu: I am going way under temp guidance. There is a strong CAA signal and the NBM guidance is contaminated with outliers that have a faster storm. So highs of 30-35 seems reasonable. For now, will just call it increasing clouds, but keep the day dry.
Fri: Here is where the wx really gets complicated. It's the American model (GFS) vs the foreigners. The foreign models have a westward track, which would mean rain, or snow changing to rain. The GFS model has a major snow storm. Either way, it is a very large storm and would feature very strong winds both during and on the back side of the low. For now, the only thing that is certain is that a storm is coming and there will be significant amounts of pcpn and wind. Subtle differences in the atmospheric setup, especially at 500 MB, will result in major differences in storm track and sensible wx here. For now, I have the fcst about 60% in the GFS camp, only to preserve continuity w/trends. However, as I said, this fcst is of very low confidence! Because of the low conf fcst, I did not make any significant adjustments to temp guidance, maybe just a deg or so lower in spots. Highs generally fcst 30-35 for now.
LR: The LR pattern may hinge largely on what happens w/the Fri storm. Much of the guidance that has an inland track flips us to a warmer pattern after New Years. However, the guidance that has big snows Fri has a frigid and snowy pattern. Either way, there could be 1-2 more snow threats before any potential breaks in the pattern.
I posted two graphics today, both for the Fri storm. One is the GFS and the other is the Canadian model, just to give an idea of the differences in modeling.
Anyway, that's all for now, see you next time!
-GP!
-GP!
