Disc: Cold air is currently rushing into the region on gusty NW winds. Lingering rain showers may end as flurries in the next few hrs, w/minimal, if any, accums, and any accums restricted to the far N country at higher elevations.
Currently: Cold front has crossed the entire state. A secondary cold front currently crossing the border near Niagara Falls will move thru tonight and reinforce the cold air.
Tonight: Went a bit below guidance on temps, altho not as low as I might go on nights like tonight. I have two reasons for not going quite as low. First, I am not sure if/when we completely clear. Second, winds likely stay up for much of the night, limiting radiational cooling. Even so, everyone easily gets into the upper 20s.
Tomorrow: Cold and windy. Winds could still gust to 35 MPH at times. Guidance temps generally accepted. Most places will struggle to reach 40 degrees!
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Still cold, but winds diminish, so it won't feel as cold. Clouds increase late in the day ahead of our next system, which I will get to in a bit. I went a few deg below guidance, given increasing clouds. Highs only upper 30s to maybe 40!
Now regarding the clipper... it now appears that any redevelopment of the system along the coast will occur too late and too far NE for us to cash in on much. It is even possible that our area is in the shadow and we get no precip at all. There is still a chance that the coastal could develop enough to produce minor (2" max) accums in far NE CT. W/all this in mind, I do not want to eliminate precip from the fcst altogether, but I also do not want to play up something that likely ends up as flurries. So the best course of action right now is to mention chance POPs for snow showers Sun night into early Mon, layering them from 30 POP SW CT to 50 POP NE CT, and not mentioning any accumulations yet.
Long Term beyond there: More cold wx will dominate the long term, but generally dry conditions are expected.
For Monday, went below temp guidance, as there could still be lingering snow showers. Additionally, it could be cloudier (related to this) than NBM likes. Highs probably stay in the upper 30s!
For Tuesday, went a few deg below guidance again, as another weaker clipper approaches. For now, just calling it a chance of flurries w/this one, as it doesn't look like it has a good moisture source. High temps will be a bit warmer and probably crack 40, but still quite chilly!
For Wednesday, nicer day between systems, but still chilly. Went just a touch under guidance, as it has been running warm in these air masses, but no major qualms w/it other than that. Highs should be 40-45.
The next sys approaches on Thu and this one could have more moisture to work with, as it lifts a warm front thru the area, mainly in the first part of the day. The GFS would imply the potential for a few inches of snow for much of the state. However, NBM POPs are very low. So I have just painted the entire state in 30% chc for snow showers at this point. Still chilly, and I went quite a bit below guidance, for continuity and due to the chances of clouds being higher than indicated by guidance. Only expecting highs of 40-45 again.
For Fri, we finally do warm up a bit. Even going below guidance and assuming it is too robust still allows for parts of the state to get to near 50 degrees.
Beyond there, we could warm up for a day or two followed by a winter storm threat around the 12/5-7 time frame. There is the possibility of a warm pattern for a while after Dec 10, but that is out in what meteorologists like to call "fantasy land", so tread w/caution.
No graphics today! See you next week and enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend!
Currently: Cold front has crossed the entire state. A secondary cold front currently crossing the border near Niagara Falls will move thru tonight and reinforce the cold air.
Tonight: Went a bit below guidance on temps, altho not as low as I might go on nights like tonight. I have two reasons for not going quite as low. First, I am not sure if/when we completely clear. Second, winds likely stay up for much of the night, limiting radiational cooling. Even so, everyone easily gets into the upper 20s.
Tomorrow: Cold and windy. Winds could still gust to 35 MPH at times. Guidance temps generally accepted. Most places will struggle to reach 40 degrees!
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Still cold, but winds diminish, so it won't feel as cold. Clouds increase late in the day ahead of our next system, which I will get to in a bit. I went a few deg below guidance, given increasing clouds. Highs only upper 30s to maybe 40!
Now regarding the clipper... it now appears that any redevelopment of the system along the coast will occur too late and too far NE for us to cash in on much. It is even possible that our area is in the shadow and we get no precip at all. There is still a chance that the coastal could develop enough to produce minor (2" max) accums in far NE CT. W/all this in mind, I do not want to eliminate precip from the fcst altogether, but I also do not want to play up something that likely ends up as flurries. So the best course of action right now is to mention chance POPs for snow showers Sun night into early Mon, layering them from 30 POP SW CT to 50 POP NE CT, and not mentioning any accumulations yet.
Long Term beyond there: More cold wx will dominate the long term, but generally dry conditions are expected.
For Monday, went below temp guidance, as there could still be lingering snow showers. Additionally, it could be cloudier (related to this) than NBM likes. Highs probably stay in the upper 30s!
For Tuesday, went a few deg below guidance again, as another weaker clipper approaches. For now, just calling it a chance of flurries w/this one, as it doesn't look like it has a good moisture source. High temps will be a bit warmer and probably crack 40, but still quite chilly!
For Wednesday, nicer day between systems, but still chilly. Went just a touch under guidance, as it has been running warm in these air masses, but no major qualms w/it other than that. Highs should be 40-45.
The next sys approaches on Thu and this one could have more moisture to work with, as it lifts a warm front thru the area, mainly in the first part of the day. The GFS would imply the potential for a few inches of snow for much of the state. However, NBM POPs are very low. So I have just painted the entire state in 30% chc for snow showers at this point. Still chilly, and I went quite a bit below guidance, for continuity and due to the chances of clouds being higher than indicated by guidance. Only expecting highs of 40-45 again.
For Fri, we finally do warm up a bit. Even going below guidance and assuming it is too robust still allows for parts of the state to get to near 50 degrees.
Beyond there, we could warm up for a day or two followed by a winter storm threat around the 12/5-7 time frame. There is the possibility of a warm pattern for a while after Dec 10, but that is out in what meteorologists like to call "fantasy land", so tread w/caution.
No graphics today! See you next week and enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend!
