Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Last week I spent time discussing the pattern change that has now arrived and settled in across much of the country. In that discussion, I talked about colder than normal temperatures being all but guaranteed, but stated that as we think about snow possibilities, we should look at them in terms of windows of opportunity, and that those would be far more difficult to forecast than the cold itself.
The week ahead starts with the first chance of snow essentially failing for the state. It'll be cold throughout the week, but nothing totally out of the ordinary, or at least what a normal January should be. By far the biggest element of the forecast for the week ahead is our second snow window that opens this coming weekend. On social media you are probably already seeing people throw around model images and start hyping about blizzards and such, but the truth is much more complicated.
The truth is that there is enormous potential for some type of winter storm to develop, but whether that potential is realized is highly uncertain at this time. Let's dive in.
Last week I spent time discussing the pattern change that has now arrived and settled in across much of the country. In that discussion, I talked about colder than normal temperatures being all but guaranteed, but stated that as we think about snow possibilities, we should look at them in terms of windows of opportunity, and that those would be far more difficult to forecast than the cold itself.
The week ahead starts with the first chance of snow essentially failing for the state. It'll be cold throughout the week, but nothing totally out of the ordinary, or at least what a normal January should be. By far the biggest element of the forecast for the week ahead is our second snow window that opens this coming weekend. On social media you are probably already seeing people throw around model images and start hyping about blizzards and such, but the truth is much more complicated.
The truth is that there is enormous potential for some type of winter storm to develop, but whether that potential is realized is highly uncertain at this time. Let's dive in.
Above: the 18z GEFS (GFS Ensemble) with the 500mb depiction over the next week. How pieces of energy from the north and south interact this week will determine the intensity, timing, and track of a possible storm Saturday or Sunday.
Monday
First things first. Our first window for a snow event is staying to our south. You can tell this pattern change is filled with potential generally because much of the Midwest is seeing a historic blizzard taking place right now, with the DC area poised to receive its biggest snow event in years when the storm arrives early Monday. As I wrote last week, the risk of "too much of a good thing" ended up being the case for New England.
A combination of blocking and confluence to our northeast locked in the cold, but overpowered the storm track--allowing the system to pass harmlessly to our south as it rocks the Mid-Atlantic. If the blocking weren't present, the storm likely would have taken on an entirely different evolution, cutting well to our west and bringing rain. Just a little less confluence however would have allowed the storm to move more northward, bringing a meaningful snow event here.
That said, we still need to be on the lookout for some light snow tomorrow, especially in southern CT. Nothing shows a meaningful snow event, but I would not be surprised to see far southern CT, especially SW CT, end up with a coating. This snow window closes without doing anything of note for the state.
It'll be plenty cold however tomorrow with most likely staying below freezing. In fact, for most, we're probably going to be below freezing for most of the week ahead.
Monday
First things first. Our first window for a snow event is staying to our south. You can tell this pattern change is filled with potential generally because much of the Midwest is seeing a historic blizzard taking place right now, with the DC area poised to receive its biggest snow event in years when the storm arrives early Monday. As I wrote last week, the risk of "too much of a good thing" ended up being the case for New England.
A combination of blocking and confluence to our northeast locked in the cold, but overpowered the storm track--allowing the system to pass harmlessly to our south as it rocks the Mid-Atlantic. If the blocking weren't present, the storm likely would have taken on an entirely different evolution, cutting well to our west and bringing rain. Just a little less confluence however would have allowed the storm to move more northward, bringing a meaningful snow event here.
That said, we still need to be on the lookout for some light snow tomorrow, especially in southern CT. Nothing shows a meaningful snow event, but I would not be surprised to see far southern CT, especially SW CT, end up with a coating. This snow window closes without doing anything of note for the state.
It'll be plenty cold however tomorrow with most likely staying below freezing. In fact, for most, we're probably going to be below freezing for most of the week ahead.
Above: the 18z GFS depiction of our "Southern Slider" for tomorrow. There's a chance of flurries or light snow in the air, especially in far SW CT, but nothing significant is expected.
Tuesday-Friday
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Cold. The middle to end of the work week looks like a carbon copy of one another. We should get plenty of sun each of those days, but with plenty of cold around and breezy conditions we will have wind chills that are lower than daytime temperatures. Much like last week, with cold advecting in we will have the chance of random snow showers that don't amount to much. Thursday in particular could produce more scattered snow showers, and we will update if it looks more widespread.
But the story here is the cold. Again, this is more standard cold, nothing exotic. The way January should be.
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Cold. The middle to end of the work week looks like a carbon copy of one another. We should get plenty of sun each of those days, but with plenty of cold around and breezy conditions we will have wind chills that are lower than daytime temperatures. Much like last week, with cold advecting in we will have the chance of random snow showers that don't amount to much. Thursday in particular could produce more scattered snow showers, and we will update if it looks more widespread.
But the story here is the cold. Again, this is more standard cold, nothing exotic. The way January should be.
Above: the EPS (European Ensemble) depicting surface cold anomalies during this period. It's cold all across the country, which is unusual.
Saturday-Sunday
Now let's let to the real period of interest--the coming weekend. As I mentioned at the start, this potential has always been signaled, but going from potential to reality is a huge leap. This looks like an all or nothing kind of setup as well, where we either see an incredibly intense storm develop and bring a major storm to the east coast, or nothing develops close enough to bring us anything meaningful.
These are highly sensitive setups, but hold enormous potential. You've probably heard of the "bomb cyclone" term in recent years from media, which describes an actual meteorological event (a low pressure system deepening 24 millibars within 24 hours). This kind of potential is thermonuclear.
Now let's let to the real period of interest--the coming weekend. As I mentioned at the start, this potential has always been signaled, but going from potential to reality is a huge leap. This looks like an all or nothing kind of setup as well, where we either see an incredibly intense storm develop and bring a major storm to the east coast, or nothing develops close enough to bring us anything meaningful.
These are highly sensitive setups, but hold enormous potential. You've probably heard of the "bomb cyclone" term in recent years from media, which describes an actual meteorological event (a low pressure system deepening 24 millibars within 24 hours). This kind of potential is thermonuclear.
Above: the 18z GFS depicting the 500mb level in heights and vorticity (read: energy). Your attention should be focused on the area that starts on the west coast and then traverses the country. In this depiction, the northern and southern energy phases (combines) to form a mammoth storm off the east coast. If the phase is missed however, nothing really happens, especially in our neck of the woods.
The specific model depictions should not be taken to the bank, no matter what model you use, because the outcome our way is highly sensitive to what happens with the potential phase. Let's use the European model as an example of this.
We're going to use the same type of animation above, looking at what's happening "under the hood" along with what the result is on the surface. You'll see why you cannot lock anything in at this time.
Yesterday Afternoon
I start and end the animations at the same forecasted point for each for consistency. Yesterday afternoon the Euro animation starts with our system trying to take shape in the southwest part of the country.
The specific model depictions should not be taken to the bank, no matter what model you use, because the outcome our way is highly sensitive to what happens with the potential phase. Let's use the European model as an example of this.
We're going to use the same type of animation above, looking at what's happening "under the hood" along with what the result is on the surface. You'll see why you cannot lock anything in at this time.
Yesterday Afternoon
I start and end the animations at the same forecasted point for each for consistency. Yesterday afternoon the Euro animation starts with our system trying to take shape in the southwest part of the country.
Note the energy in the northern Plains diving down and combining with the southern energy. From that moment forward, it's game on. The trough starts winding up and although its messy (you want more of a bowling ball look than a line of energy) you see the result with intensifying vorticity and then the surface depiction.
In this roll of the atmospheric dice, the phase results in a storm taking off once it hits the coast. We get hit hard.
Last Night
Here is what happened last night in the Euro run. Here, the phase kind of happens twice, with multiple pieces of northern energy, and the result is nuclear.
The timing of the phase determines details like where the heaviest banding sets up, but that's useless at this range because it's entirely dependent on whether there is even a phase. With this kind of phase, the region gets buried in a blizzard.
Last Night
Here is what happened last night in the Euro run. Here, the phase kind of happens twice, with multiple pieces of northern energy, and the result is nuclear.
The timing of the phase determines details like where the heaviest banding sets up, but that's useless at this range because it's entirely dependent on whether there is even a phase. With this kind of phase, the region gets buried in a blizzard.
This Afternoon
But again, nothing is locked. This is a highly sensitive setup, and a phase is far from a guarantee.
But again, nothing is locked. This is a highly sensitive setup, and a phase is far from a guarantee.
Above you have this afternoon's run, where we get a highly inefficient consolidation of energy in the southwest, with the northern stream secondary energy staying to the north in later frames and failing to phase. The result is virtually nothing happening over our region, other than northern stream driven snow showers.
The runs tonight continue to show the idea of multiple pieces of the northern stream trying to phase into the southern energy, and should phases occur, the timing of the fusion will matter a lot.
I spent a lot of time discussing potential because it's worth understanding why the surface model depictions of a blizzard...or whiff...don't matter at all right now. As is always the case, what happens at the surface is driven by what happens aloft.
Nothing is settled at this time, but the potential is high.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Snow showers possible. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Saturday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
I spent a lot of time discussing potential because it's worth understanding why the surface model depictions of a blizzard...or whiff...don't matter at all right now. As is always the case, what happens at the surface is driven by what happens aloft.
Nothing is settled at this time, but the potential is high.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Snow showers possible. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Saturday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
