Disc: For a few days, some of the longer range modeling began to look more wintry. However, as I began saying in early Feb, it's better to ignore that unless it suddenly gets within 4 days or less. And, like clockwork, as soon as it got closer, it vanished, for the most part.
Currently: Strong low pressure extends from NNE into SE Quebec. This is the same storm that gave us heavy showers early this morn. This system will not move out of the way very quickly. So winds will stay up across the region, and just diminish very slowly over the next few days.
Tonight: Temps should be pretty uniform tonight across the area, due to the fact that winds should stay up. Because of this, will split the guidance across the board. Expect low temperatures generally in the low 20s, with a few mid 20s along the S coast and a few upper teens in the NW hills. Winds should gust up to 35 MPH for most of the night, so bundle up if headed out!
Tomorrow: With cold air advection still ongoing, I think the colder NAM guidance looks more correct. I don't think anyone in the state gets to 40 degrees. With that in mind, temps should stay in the upper 30s across the state. Winds could still gust to 30 MPH at times, intensifying the chill in the air.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The combination of clouds, and still ongoing cold air advection (winds should still gust up to 30 MPH), will keep temps down. I'll go a solid 3 to 5 degrees below all temp guidance and call for highs generally within a few degrees of the freezing mark. In the NW Hills, temps may not get out of the 20s! There is also the chance of a passing snow flurry, as a weak upper level system passes overhead.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Winds finally begin to diminish Sunday. With high pressure directly overhead, other than a few minor geographic tweaks here and there, I don't see any reason to fight with guidance. Highs should be in the mid to upper 30s.
On Monday, a warm front should spread light precip into the area late in the afternoon. Originally, guidance showed cold air holding on and a threat for light, but widespread, wintry precip across the area. However, beginning yesterday, guidance shifted significantly warmer, to the tune of 10-15 degrees at all levels! It is not surprising, considering the way this "winter" has gone. So I will be adjusting the fcst accordingly. Guidance is now in good agreement on this sceneario, so any precip that falls will be rain. High temps should be into the mid to upper 40s across the state- far too warm for anything other than rain.
Unsettled weather will continue for a couple more days next week. Rain is likely on Tuesday, with a good period of moderate rain probable in the afternoon. With low-level moisture lingering, I wouldn't be surprised if light rain/drizzle hung around earlier in the day, as well. Because of this, I went a tad lower than temp guidance. Even so, highs should get close to 50 degrees, with even lower 50s possible along I 91.
Occasional rain will continue on Wednesday. Being that we're far out still, I don't want to concentrate on timing, especially with model differences. Some models say the heaviest rain is at night, while others have it in the morning. The bottom line is I wouldn't be making many outdoor plans for Wed if you don't want to get wet! As for temps, I'll take guidance down by 3-5 degrees, with clouds and rain now expected for most of the day. Even so, high temperatures should still make the upper 40s.
I'll keep Thu dry for now. It looks like rain pulls out early in the morn, similar to what happened today. There could be a brief flurry in the ensuing cold air advection, but it's too far out to mention at this time.
Since the cold air advection does not seem overly strong, I won't deviate too much from guidance. Looks like highs in the mid 40s, except low 40s in the NW hills. Could see wind gusts of 35-40 MPH once again in the cold air advection.
In the long range, I don't see anything overly exciting. Although in the means, it looks like temps may actually avg blo norm, every time a storm comes, they tend to warm up, with the mean storm track still to our west. I wouldn't say that we're not getting any snow at all the rest of the way thru, as we still have all of Mar and the beginning of Apr to go, but obviously, it becomes harder and harder to get snow and tends to favor the NW hills more the deeper we head into Mar.
Climate: I have some interesting climate statistics to share. Keep in mind, these statistics are NYC-centric, but SW CT is not far from NYC and the weather is really not all that different. Obviously, this has not been a snowy winter. However, there have been several winters that have had less snow. What is more remarkable is that, as far as reliable data that I could find, unless we get a bigger event in Mar or Apr (and it won't take much to do so), this will be the smallest "biggest event" of the season, Even the snowless winters had most or all of the snow coming out of one event. This winter the snow we did get was spread out across tiny events.
In addition, as you probably know, it has been a very warm winter. However, the total number of days that have exceeded 50 degrees (which we usually use to delineate very warm winter days) has not been that far from normal. We have just seen an extreme overabundance of days that were in the 45-50 degree range. It has been a strange winter!
Anyway, getting back on topic, let's get a graphical look at weather systems slated to affect the area in the upcoming week. Monday's total precip should be less than a tenth of an inch, so I won't post that. Since we have two separate systems training to produce rain in the Tue-Wed time frame, I'll post one of each of those. You can see on this map, there is a low pressure system over Srn NYS, with a good moisture plume over CT.
Currently: Strong low pressure extends from NNE into SE Quebec. This is the same storm that gave us heavy showers early this morn. This system will not move out of the way very quickly. So winds will stay up across the region, and just diminish very slowly over the next few days.
Tonight: Temps should be pretty uniform tonight across the area, due to the fact that winds should stay up. Because of this, will split the guidance across the board. Expect low temperatures generally in the low 20s, with a few mid 20s along the S coast and a few upper teens in the NW hills. Winds should gust up to 35 MPH for most of the night, so bundle up if headed out!
Tomorrow: With cold air advection still ongoing, I think the colder NAM guidance looks more correct. I don't think anyone in the state gets to 40 degrees. With that in mind, temps should stay in the upper 30s across the state. Winds could still gust to 30 MPH at times, intensifying the chill in the air.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: The combination of clouds, and still ongoing cold air advection (winds should still gust up to 30 MPH), will keep temps down. I'll go a solid 3 to 5 degrees below all temp guidance and call for highs generally within a few degrees of the freezing mark. In the NW Hills, temps may not get out of the 20s! There is also the chance of a passing snow flurry, as a weak upper level system passes overhead.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Winds finally begin to diminish Sunday. With high pressure directly overhead, other than a few minor geographic tweaks here and there, I don't see any reason to fight with guidance. Highs should be in the mid to upper 30s.
On Monday, a warm front should spread light precip into the area late in the afternoon. Originally, guidance showed cold air holding on and a threat for light, but widespread, wintry precip across the area. However, beginning yesterday, guidance shifted significantly warmer, to the tune of 10-15 degrees at all levels! It is not surprising, considering the way this "winter" has gone. So I will be adjusting the fcst accordingly. Guidance is now in good agreement on this sceneario, so any precip that falls will be rain. High temps should be into the mid to upper 40s across the state- far too warm for anything other than rain.
Unsettled weather will continue for a couple more days next week. Rain is likely on Tuesday, with a good period of moderate rain probable in the afternoon. With low-level moisture lingering, I wouldn't be surprised if light rain/drizzle hung around earlier in the day, as well. Because of this, I went a tad lower than temp guidance. Even so, highs should get close to 50 degrees, with even lower 50s possible along I 91.
Occasional rain will continue on Wednesday. Being that we're far out still, I don't want to concentrate on timing, especially with model differences. Some models say the heaviest rain is at night, while others have it in the morning. The bottom line is I wouldn't be making many outdoor plans for Wed if you don't want to get wet! As for temps, I'll take guidance down by 3-5 degrees, with clouds and rain now expected for most of the day. Even so, high temperatures should still make the upper 40s.
I'll keep Thu dry for now. It looks like rain pulls out early in the morn, similar to what happened today. There could be a brief flurry in the ensuing cold air advection, but it's too far out to mention at this time.
Since the cold air advection does not seem overly strong, I won't deviate too much from guidance. Looks like highs in the mid 40s, except low 40s in the NW hills. Could see wind gusts of 35-40 MPH once again in the cold air advection.
In the long range, I don't see anything overly exciting. Although in the means, it looks like temps may actually avg blo norm, every time a storm comes, they tend to warm up, with the mean storm track still to our west. I wouldn't say that we're not getting any snow at all the rest of the way thru, as we still have all of Mar and the beginning of Apr to go, but obviously, it becomes harder and harder to get snow and tends to favor the NW hills more the deeper we head into Mar.
Climate: I have some interesting climate statistics to share. Keep in mind, these statistics are NYC-centric, but SW CT is not far from NYC and the weather is really not all that different. Obviously, this has not been a snowy winter. However, there have been several winters that have had less snow. What is more remarkable is that, as far as reliable data that I could find, unless we get a bigger event in Mar or Apr (and it won't take much to do so), this will be the smallest "biggest event" of the season, Even the snowless winters had most or all of the snow coming out of one event. This winter the snow we did get was spread out across tiny events.
In addition, as you probably know, it has been a very warm winter. However, the total number of days that have exceeded 50 degrees (which we usually use to delineate very warm winter days) has not been that far from normal. We have just seen an extreme overabundance of days that were in the 45-50 degree range. It has been a strange winter!
Anyway, getting back on topic, let's get a graphical look at weather systems slated to affect the area in the upcoming week. Monday's total precip should be less than a tenth of an inch, so I won't post that. Since we have two separate systems training to produce rain in the Tue-Wed time frame, I'll post one of each of those. You can see on this map, there is a low pressure system over Srn NYS, with a good moisture plume over CT.
Finally, this last map is for Wednesday's rain. Verbatim, this guidance keeps most of the moisture south of the state, and would favor the S coast, if anything. However, the fact that the ridge offshore has been so strong, I am inclined to believe that this comes further N.
Anyway, that's all for now! See you again next week!
-GP!
-GP!
