Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Our warm period has come to an end and now things are feeling a lot more like mid November. The week ahead is going to bring us mostly quiet conditions, and what may be our strongest cold shot of the season so far. We can't talk about the week ahead without talking about the storm system that is currently approaching CT so let's dive in.
Our warm period has come to an end and now things are feeling a lot more like mid November. The week ahead is going to bring us mostly quiet conditions, and what may be our strongest cold shot of the season so far. We can't talk about the week ahead without talking about the storm system that is currently approaching CT so let's dive in.
Above are the current advisories for CT. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of coastal CT in advance of the storm system that will impact us this evening and overnight.
Sunday
Much of the day is over, but this evening is worth talking about. Our cool and overcast conditions will give way later this afternoon and early evening to some scattered showers that will increase in coverage and intensity as an area of low pressure passes to our north. That storm system will bring a potent cold front as well, and along that front we will see our best chance for heavy rain and gusty winds.
As you will see below from the latest high resolution NAM, a strong line will pass through the state during the overnight hours, likely between 8pm and midnight. This is likely to bring a period of strong and potentially damaging winds, especially in southern Connecticut. Looking at the data, I am more bullish this afternoon than I was yesterday because I think this line will be more convective in nature, allowing for more strong wind to mix down from a strong low level jet.
Things will clear out quickly overnight, but not before we see maximum wind gusts between 45-55mph in northern CT and 55-65mph in southern CT, especially along the coast. As a result, scattered power outages are possible. Not everyone will see big wind, but the places that do will rock for a brief period.
Sunday
Much of the day is over, but this evening is worth talking about. Our cool and overcast conditions will give way later this afternoon and early evening to some scattered showers that will increase in coverage and intensity as an area of low pressure passes to our north. That storm system will bring a potent cold front as well, and along that front we will see our best chance for heavy rain and gusty winds.
As you will see below from the latest high resolution NAM, a strong line will pass through the state during the overnight hours, likely between 8pm and midnight. This is likely to bring a period of strong and potentially damaging winds, especially in southern Connecticut. Looking at the data, I am more bullish this afternoon than I was yesterday because I think this line will be more convective in nature, allowing for more strong wind to mix down from a strong low level jet.
Things will clear out quickly overnight, but not before we see maximum wind gusts between 45-55mph in northern CT and 55-65mph in southern CT, especially along the coast. As a result, scattered power outages are possible. Not everyone will see big wind, but the places that do will rock for a brief period.
Monday-Tuesday
Once the storm system moves through tonight, quiet conditions are likely to prevail through the entire forecast period. Temperatures will fall back a bit tomorrow and continue a downward trend into Tuesday. Tuesday may bring our only other chance of precipitation as a strong cold front passes through the region. In fact, for some of the northern areas there may be a chance of snow showers. We're not expecting anything significant to come of it, other than the cold shot that blasts into the state.
Once the storm system moves through tonight, quiet conditions are likely to prevail through the entire forecast period. Temperatures will fall back a bit tomorrow and continue a downward trend into Tuesday. Tuesday may bring our only other chance of precipitation as a strong cold front passes through the region. In fact, for some of the northern areas there may be a chance of snow showers. We're not expecting anything significant to come of it, other than the cold shot that blasts into the state.
Above: the GFS showing temperature anomalies. This describes the arc of the week pretty well, with warmth in advance of the cold front tonight, a slow decline in temperatures before the bigger cold arrives Wednesday and Thursday, followed by moderating temperatures.
Wednesday-Thursday
This will be our cold period. After the front passes we will see temperatures in the 30s on Wednesday and rebounding slightly into the 40s on Thursday. In fact, the hill towns, especially in NW CT, temperatures may not crack freezing on Wednesday!
Early taste of winter!
Friday-Sunday
The rest of the forecast period should bring moderating temperatures for the state as the upper level pattern flattens out and effectively cuts off the cold source that delivers the mid-week cold. Currently, things look quiet through this period as well.
Wednesday-Thursday
This will be our cold period. After the front passes we will see temperatures in the 30s on Wednesday and rebounding slightly into the 40s on Thursday. In fact, the hill towns, especially in NW CT, temperatures may not crack freezing on Wednesday!
Early taste of winter!
Friday-Sunday
The rest of the forecast period should bring moderating temperatures for the state as the upper level pattern flattens out and effectively cuts off the cold source that delivers the mid-week cold. Currently, things look quiet through this period as well.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with rain and snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with rain and snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
