It is a cloudy and cool day in Connecticut as our next storm approaches. Unfortunately, the forecast for Thanksgiving Day, where a lot are hoping to be outside, is looking less than ideal. Let's dive in.
It is mostly cloudy in CT today, but there are already some showers around. We should see an increase in coverage of the rain showers late today and especially this evening as an area of low pressure travels well to our northwest. This storm system should bring us some meaningful rain, which is still needed given our continued rainfall deficit. The rain should be heaviest overnight and tomorrow morning, but conditions will only slowly improve over the course of our Monday and rain may be heavy at times. It should be breezy nonetheless. Tomorrow looks warmer than today as warm air is advected in ahead of a front that will deliver a colder Tuesday.
Tuesday should be beautiful as high pressure builds in and brings sunny but breezy conditions as colder air advects in. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s, though some hill towns may top out in the upper 30s. Wednesday should be dry and slightly warmer, but clouds will be increasing as our next storm system approaches.
Turkey day is looking wet. Another area of low pressure is expected to traverse the region and it will complicate Thanksgiving plans. Right now, there is a bit of uncertainty in the timing and intensity of the storm. Rain showers look to begin during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. That's also when we may see the heaviest rain. There are mixed signals on how quickly the storm will depart. The GFS for instance only has light showers during the afternoon. The Canadian has a stronger storm that washes out the day. The European is kind of in the middle, with heavier rain in the morning hours and some showers in the afternoon, heavier than the GFS but not a washout like the Canadian.
Right now, I think outdoor activities on Thanksgiving look tough. Although temperatures will likely top out in the upper 50s to low 60s, there looks to be enough precipitation around that only those with covered patios are likely to have a decently comfortable outside gathering. This forecast will need to be fine tuned, so expect more from us as we get closer to Thursday.
The period after Thanksgiving starts out quiet, but by the weekend we may be looking at more unsettled weather. First, Friday looks nice as the Thanksgiving storm moves out. Conditions should be partly cloudy with seasonable temperatures. Saturday we are back to cooler temperatures, increasing clouds, and a chance of showers as the guidance is nearly unanimous on a big storm developing to our south and west. This should be a rain event, but the timing is all over the place right now. At the moment, Saturday looks ok, but Sunday and/or Monday look to bring rain and breezy conditions.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with rain. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with cooler conditions. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain and rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
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