Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
The winter forecast has been released, December is almost here, and the holiday season is in full swing. We're watching a big storm to start the work week and a gradual pattern change that should make things feel more wintry as we progress through the first week of December. Let's dive in.
The winter forecast has been released, December is almost here, and the holiday season is in full swing. We're watching a big storm to start the work week and a gradual pattern change that should make things feel more wintry as we progress through the first week of December. Let's dive in.
Above is the latest update on precipitation in the region, and the departure from average. As you will see, a good portion of the state is actually within striking distance of a normal precipitation November. Tomorrow's storm should get most places there.
Monday
A storm is already brewing in the south, and it will quickly develop over the course of our Sunday and cut to our west on Monday. The airmass is already well too warm for any ideas for wintry precipitation here, but there could be a solid early winter storm in parts of Ohio, PA, and western NY. For us, we're looking at rain and wind, and both could be significant at times.
Monday
A storm is already brewing in the south, and it will quickly develop over the course of our Sunday and cut to our west on Monday. The airmass is already well too warm for any ideas for wintry precipitation here, but there could be a solid early winter storm in parts of Ohio, PA, and western NY. For us, we're looking at rain and wind, and both could be significant at times.
Above is the NAM high resolution depiction of the storm tomorrow. Rain looks to begin in the morning hours and continue through the day with rain heavy at times. What you don't see here is the wind depiction, which looks quite windy for much of the state, especially southern CT, from late morning through at least the early evening hours.
Tomorrow looks like a washout with periods of heavy rain. I think a widespread 1-2 inches of rain is a good bet. The wind situation looks robust as well, with inland areas seeing maximum wind gusts of 40-50mph and 50-60mph along the shoreline. Note that areas in SE CT could see the strongest winds and they could be higher than this. I do expect wind advisories or high wind watches to be issued later tonight.
Although it will be windy, with leaves down we're not expecting a major impact with the wind. We should see scattered power outages in the usual spots but I don't think outages are widespread statewide. The rain should end during the early evening hours.
Tomorrow looks like a washout with periods of heavy rain. I think a widespread 1-2 inches of rain is a good bet. The wind situation looks robust as well, with inland areas seeing maximum wind gusts of 40-50mph and 50-60mph along the shoreline. Note that areas in SE CT could see the strongest winds and they could be higher than this. I do expect wind advisories or high wind watches to be issued later tonight.
Although it will be windy, with leaves down we're not expecting a major impact with the wind. We should see scattered power outages in the usual spots but I don't think outages are widespread statewide. The rain should end during the early evening hours.
Tuesday-Friday
Although the worst of the weather will be on Monday, there could be some residual showers on Tuesday and as colder air filters in on Wednesday, maybe a few snow flurries in northwest CT. I don't expect much from either, but Tuesday would be a good day to have an umbrella handy. Although Monday and Tuesday look warmer than normal, we're colder than normal on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Thursday and Friday look great, with more seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies. By this time we're watching our next potential system for the weekend.
Although the worst of the weather will be on Monday, there could be some residual showers on Tuesday and as colder air filters in on Wednesday, maybe a few snow flurries in northwest CT. I don't expect much from either, but Tuesday would be a good day to have an umbrella handy. Although Monday and Tuesday look warmer than normal, we're colder than normal on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Thursday and Friday look great, with more seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies. By this time we're watching our next potential system for the weekend.
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Above: Euro (left) and GFS (right) depictions on next weekend's potential storm. Both look like rain at the moment.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is looking unsettled. Another storm system has been showing up on all the guidance for this time frame, and it does look like something will develop. The airmass doesn't look cold enough at this time to support snow (but probably cold enough to keep us in the 40s), but it is something we'll be watching
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is looking unsettled. Another storm system has been showing up on all the guidance for this time frame, and it does look like something will develop. The airmass doesn't look cold enough at this time to support snow (but probably cold enough to keep us in the 40s), but it is something we'll be watching
Longer Range
If you read our 2020-21 Winter Forecast yesterday, you would have noted that we're expecting a pattern change. It will happen in a few stages. First, we will see ridging out west create troughing in the east, bringing cooler temperatures. It won't be enough for significant departures but it's necessary to allow Canada to reload some colder air. The first week of December as you can tell isn't looking terribly wintry, but slowly, we'll be progressing toward a more conductive pattern for colder conditions and some possible activity later in the month.
If you read our 2020-21 Winter Forecast yesterday, you would have noted that we're expecting a pattern change. It will happen in a few stages. First, we will see ridging out west create troughing in the east, bringing cooler temperatures. It won't be enough for significant departures but it's necessary to allow Canada to reload some colder air. The first week of December as you can tell isn't looking terribly wintry, but slowly, we'll be progressing toward a more conductive pattern for colder conditions and some possible activity later in the month.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain and windy conditions. Rain will be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of flurries 10%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
​
-DB​ ​
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain and windy conditions. Rain will be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of flurries 10%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
​
-DB​ ​
