Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
While parts of the state have snow on the ground and others do not, we're all experiencing cold left in the wake of our December winter storm. The week ahead is looking cold and quiet. Before going to the forecast, let's grade our forecast from this storm.
While parts of the state have snow on the ground and others do not, we're all experiencing cold left in the wake of our December winter storm. The week ahead is looking cold and quiet. Before going to the forecast, let's grade our forecast from this storm.
Above is our verification map using NWS reports and some reader measurements.
As I said in the forecast, winter wasn't giving us a break with this first event. This was a tough first exam! We made predictions based on five different areas.
Snowfall Accumulation
Overall, we did the best in the area we had the most confidence, NE CT. A lot of places in that zone did well, and we actually stayed within our forecast range with 10" being the highest total in Union. We were slightly below in NW CT. The shoreline forecast more or less worked out here, though in the future it may be better to forecast a Trace (snowflakes in the air) rather than a coating. I ding the forecast on that. Our largest zone was the toughest zone. A lot of places in western CT didn't receive much of anything, while eastern areas did ok for the most part. We were clear about that in the forecast, but 2" was still the minimum and we missed out west. There were wide variations among locations, even in the same town!
Grade: B-
Timing
We did excellent here, especially in calling an earlier flip to snow. Across the board success.
Grade: A
Wind
The wind forecast seemed off at first, but looking at the data, we actually did ok. New London gusted to 58, which is above our forecast, but a number of other shoreline locations recorded gusts on the lower end of our forecast. The winds inland weren't as strong, which was expected in NW and central CT, but dinged us a bit in eastern CT.
Grade: B+
Power Outages
We did ok with highlighting power outage issues. Because there was less wind in eastern CT we may have seen less power outage issues. They were mostly scattered, but widespread in a few towns that received more snow. We highlighted the appropriate areas, which is good.
Grade: A-
Overall Impact
I think we did well here. In fact, I think we were pretty accurate for most of the state. Nuisance impact at best in southern CT, lower impact SW CT and more moderate in north-central CT (though west of the river didn't see much), high impact in NE CT which verified with some of the outages we saw and road conditions. The only place we were really off was our NW zone.
Grade: B+
Overall Grade: The part that everyone cares about is the part we did worst, so I'm not happy about that. Perhaps we could have expanded the C-2 area into more of SW CT and pulled down the other zones, but given the information at the time, I think we did ok covering some of the higher end totals in eastern CT. We did well elsewhere though, so that helps us out. Averaging the respective grades together we end up with a solid B+. Good grade on a very hard test.
As I said in the forecast, winter wasn't giving us a break with this first event. This was a tough first exam! We made predictions based on five different areas.
Snowfall Accumulation
Overall, we did the best in the area we had the most confidence, NE CT. A lot of places in that zone did well, and we actually stayed within our forecast range with 10" being the highest total in Union. We were slightly below in NW CT. The shoreline forecast more or less worked out here, though in the future it may be better to forecast a Trace (snowflakes in the air) rather than a coating. I ding the forecast on that. Our largest zone was the toughest zone. A lot of places in western CT didn't receive much of anything, while eastern areas did ok for the most part. We were clear about that in the forecast, but 2" was still the minimum and we missed out west. There were wide variations among locations, even in the same town!
Grade: B-
Timing
We did excellent here, especially in calling an earlier flip to snow. Across the board success.
Grade: A
Wind
The wind forecast seemed off at first, but looking at the data, we actually did ok. New London gusted to 58, which is above our forecast, but a number of other shoreline locations recorded gusts on the lower end of our forecast. The winds inland weren't as strong, which was expected in NW and central CT, but dinged us a bit in eastern CT.
Grade: B+
Power Outages
We did ok with highlighting power outage issues. Because there was less wind in eastern CT we may have seen less power outage issues. They were mostly scattered, but widespread in a few towns that received more snow. We highlighted the appropriate areas, which is good.
Grade: A-
Overall Impact
I think we did well here. In fact, I think we were pretty accurate for most of the state. Nuisance impact at best in southern CT, lower impact SW CT and more moderate in north-central CT (though west of the river didn't see much), high impact in NE CT which verified with some of the outages we saw and road conditions. The only place we were really off was our NW zone.
Grade: B+
Overall Grade: The part that everyone cares about is the part we did worst, so I'm not happy about that. Perhaps we could have expanded the C-2 area into more of SW CT and pulled down the other zones, but given the information at the time, I think we did ok covering some of the higher end totals in eastern CT. We did well elsewhere though, so that helps us out. Averaging the respective grades together we end up with a solid B+. Good grade on a very hard test.
Your Week Ahead
Now to the forecast. In the wake of the storm that bombed out yesterday, cold air has rushed into the state and will remain for the next few days. It will feel like December. It'll also be fairly quiet. The only things we're really watching are a possible clipper passing to our north midweek and a storm that is likely to cut to our west this weekend.
Monday-Tuesday
The first half of the week looks quiet, breezy, and cold. We're already cold this evening, and you can expect the next few nights to be cold across the state. We should see sunny conditions and highs in the mid to upper 30s. Some shoreline locations could end up slightly above 40.
Wednesday-Friday
Temperatures start to moderate here, but not by a lot on Wednesday. We expect mostly clear conditions, but we're watching a weak disturbance that may pass north of the state on Wednesday. With moderating (but still cold) air in place we could see some snow showers on Wednesday. Not expecting anything meaningful out of this, but we'll be watching in case the weak system trends a bit stronger/moist.
At any rate, temperatures will really start rebounding afterward and should approaching the upper 40s to 50 in spots by Thursday and Friday.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is a bit uncertain right now, but we're looking at warmer temperatures an a potentially strong storm cutting to our west again. That would mean rain. However, at this point I think it's prudent to just let things play out over the next week. The intensity of the storm is still in doubt.
Now to the forecast. In the wake of the storm that bombed out yesterday, cold air has rushed into the state and will remain for the next few days. It will feel like December. It'll also be fairly quiet. The only things we're really watching are a possible clipper passing to our north midweek and a storm that is likely to cut to our west this weekend.
Monday-Tuesday
The first half of the week looks quiet, breezy, and cold. We're already cold this evening, and you can expect the next few nights to be cold across the state. We should see sunny conditions and highs in the mid to upper 30s. Some shoreline locations could end up slightly above 40.
Wednesday-Friday
Temperatures start to moderate here, but not by a lot on Wednesday. We expect mostly clear conditions, but we're watching a weak disturbance that may pass north of the state on Wednesday. With moderating (but still cold) air in place we could see some snow showers on Wednesday. Not expecting anything meaningful out of this, but we'll be watching in case the weak system trends a bit stronger/moist.
At any rate, temperatures will really start rebounding afterward and should approaching the upper 40s to 50 in spots by Thursday and Friday.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is a bit uncertain right now, but we're looking at warmer temperatures an a potentially strong storm cutting to our west again. That would mean rain. However, at this point I think it's prudent to just let things play out over the next week. The intensity of the storm is still in doubt.
18z GFS depiction above. A fairly strong storm cuts to our west on Friday and brings rain over the course of the weekend. Not looking wintry in any sense right now.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Hill towns could be a few degrees colder.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Hill towns could be a few degrees colder.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
