Disc: A generally warm pattern will continue for the time being, with fairly frequent, at least chances, for thunderstorms. There may be a cooler period to start July, but a lot of that depends on frontal position.
Currently: Low pressure over the Chesapeake Bay could kick off showers and thunderstorms later tonight. But for the rest of today, expect generally warm and dry wx.
Tonight: The aforementioned low may kick off a round of showers and thunderstorms for the state tonight, probably centered around midnight. This time, the chances are fairly uniform across the state, and fit into the "scattered" category. As far as temps, I'll go a couple degs blo guidance, as rainfall shud help bring a little cooler air down from upstairs. Xpct lows in the low 60s.
Tomorrow: Can't see why SPC has the area in general thunderstorms. Subsidence should rule the day and this should keep any t-storms hundreds of miles to our W. As for us, I'd xpct a warm day with moderate levels of humidity. Guidance looks reasonable, so I just made a regional tweak here and there. Xpct highs in the mid 80s, w/maybe a few upper 80s along the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Although the core of the severe weather should remain off to our west and southwest, Saturday looks like a good day for widespread showers and storms. The first round should come through early in the day with a warm frontal passage, and then the second, possibly containing strong storms, should come through later in the day with a cold front. I'll go a few degrees cooler than guidance, since there shouldn't be many hrs of full sun and that could definitely throw off high temps. So look for highs in the low 80s, for the most part.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): A little instability remains during the first part of Sunday, so there is a slight chance for another quick thunderstorm, but Sunday should be largely dry, especially since humidity at all levels should gradually decrease as the day wears on. With modest cold air advection, I'll go a couple degrees below guidance. So expect high temps in the mid 80s.
Monday should be a dry day, as we're between systems. Guidance looks very reasonable, so I'll accept it with a few regional tweaks here and there. It will still be very warm, but humidity lvls shud be low. Xpct highs generally in the upper 80s, xcpt a ltl cooler alg the S coast and in the NW Hills.
Most of Tuesday should be dry, as well, but humidity will increase, and some showers and thunderstorms could make it back into the area by nighttime. Once again, temp guidance looks reasonable, so I'm not planning on making any huge changes to what is in the system. Highs shud be in the mid 80s, xcpt a few upper 80s along the I 91 corridor.
The last two days of the forecast period, Wednesday and Thursday, depend very highly on the position of a frontal system. As you might expect at this range, models are not in good agreement and are not showing good continuity from run to run regarding the position and progress of the frontal system. Therefore, my fcst will be rather "generic". Suffice it to say, xpct unsettled wx, w/very low confidence in temps.
Given the uncertainty in this period, I also did not stray too much from temperature guidance. Right now I am thinking highs should be near 80, with maybe some low 80s along I 91 Wed, and 80-85 Thu.
The GFS continues to want to flood the USA with very hot air in the long range. We have had warm days, of course, but nothing like what the GFS has been pumping out. Given the fact that the GFS has done this in the long range since May, I'll take it w/a cup of salt for now.
Taking a graphical look at some systems slated to affect the area this week... I will not post tonight's system, as it is too short term. So what I will do is I'll post a map for Saturday's cold frontal storms and then a map with the frontal boundary for next Wed. So first here is Sat's sys. You can see on this map a large area of hvy rain pointed at CT, if it pans out, of course.
Currently: Low pressure over the Chesapeake Bay could kick off showers and thunderstorms later tonight. But for the rest of today, expect generally warm and dry wx.
Tonight: The aforementioned low may kick off a round of showers and thunderstorms for the state tonight, probably centered around midnight. This time, the chances are fairly uniform across the state, and fit into the "scattered" category. As far as temps, I'll go a couple degs blo guidance, as rainfall shud help bring a little cooler air down from upstairs. Xpct lows in the low 60s.
Tomorrow: Can't see why SPC has the area in general thunderstorms. Subsidence should rule the day and this should keep any t-storms hundreds of miles to our W. As for us, I'd xpct a warm day with moderate levels of humidity. Guidance looks reasonable, so I just made a regional tweak here and there. Xpct highs in the mid 80s, w/maybe a few upper 80s along the I 91 corridor.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Although the core of the severe weather should remain off to our west and southwest, Saturday looks like a good day for widespread showers and storms. The first round should come through early in the day with a warm frontal passage, and then the second, possibly containing strong storms, should come through later in the day with a cold front. I'll go a few degrees cooler than guidance, since there shouldn't be many hrs of full sun and that could definitely throw off high temps. So look for highs in the low 80s, for the most part.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): A little instability remains during the first part of Sunday, so there is a slight chance for another quick thunderstorm, but Sunday should be largely dry, especially since humidity at all levels should gradually decrease as the day wears on. With modest cold air advection, I'll go a couple degrees below guidance. So expect high temps in the mid 80s.
Monday should be a dry day, as we're between systems. Guidance looks very reasonable, so I'll accept it with a few regional tweaks here and there. It will still be very warm, but humidity lvls shud be low. Xpct highs generally in the upper 80s, xcpt a ltl cooler alg the S coast and in the NW Hills.
Most of Tuesday should be dry, as well, but humidity will increase, and some showers and thunderstorms could make it back into the area by nighttime. Once again, temp guidance looks reasonable, so I'm not planning on making any huge changes to what is in the system. Highs shud be in the mid 80s, xcpt a few upper 80s along the I 91 corridor.
The last two days of the forecast period, Wednesday and Thursday, depend very highly on the position of a frontal system. As you might expect at this range, models are not in good agreement and are not showing good continuity from run to run regarding the position and progress of the frontal system. Therefore, my fcst will be rather "generic". Suffice it to say, xpct unsettled wx, w/very low confidence in temps.
Given the uncertainty in this period, I also did not stray too much from temperature guidance. Right now I am thinking highs should be near 80, with maybe some low 80s along I 91 Wed, and 80-85 Thu.
The GFS continues to want to flood the USA with very hot air in the long range. We have had warm days, of course, but nothing like what the GFS has been pumping out. Given the fact that the GFS has done this in the long range since May, I'll take it w/a cup of salt for now.
Taking a graphical look at some systems slated to affect the area this week... I will not post tonight's system, as it is too short term. So what I will do is I'll post a map for Saturday's cold frontal storms and then a map with the frontal boundary for next Wed. So first here is Sat's sys. You can see on this map a large area of hvy rain pointed at CT, if it pans out, of course.
Now here is a map valid Tuesday night. This model at this time wants the front to be south of the area (Traceable via red 570 line), but it also pops a weak low off the NJ coast, which would enhance and prolong pcpn. We have a long way to go and low confidence with this.
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
