Disc: As this pesky upper level low/trough pulls out of the region, the weather will transition to a more summery pattern. However, a meteorological consensus is that it will not be unrelenting heat and drought conditions like last year, but more of a changeable pattern with frequent storm chances (and some heat waves).
Currently: Low pressure near Binghamton, with a trough extending down through EPA will swing through one more enhanced chance for showers tonight into early tomorrow morning, then the weather will begin to slowly improve.
Tonight: As mentioned, a weak sfc low over Srn NYS will drift Eastward and swing a trough through the region during the evening hours. As this happens, the whole process could spark a few showers. Conditions gradually improve overnight, although drizzle and fog is possible along the immediate south coast, as well as in valley locations. It really is next to impossible to predict whether or not drizzle will fall. First off, models only show precipitation that is measurable, and most of the time, drizzle is not measurable. Secondly, simulated radar wouldn't help either, since drizzle often does not even show up on radar. Therefore, the best way to approach this is to simply call for fog and patchy drizzle in the more prone areas. As for temperatures, I think the gridded data is too cold, as it is being overly aggressive in clearing skies tonight. Therefore, it will cool temperatures too fast, through radiative processes. Statistical guidance is better, since it keeps the skies generally overcast. I can't imagine clearing out at night with such a moist air mass in place. So lows of 45-50 look good statewide.
Tomorrow: There could be breaks of sun from time to time. The air mass is marginally unstable, with low convective temperatures. This should put a cap on how warm we can get, since any sun will destabilize the atmosphere and generate cumulus at the very least, and showers and thunderstorms at most. It is very possible that the immediate south coast gets socked in with low clouds and areas of drizzle and fog all day. Therefore, the best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be north of the Merritt Parkway. I am cautiously going to go a couple degrees above guidance tomorrow, calling for highs around 70. It is very possible that I bust way high on these temperatures, however, since fog and drizzle would keep temperatures down, as would any showers or thunderstorms that develop.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: As the pattern is changing, this could be our last chance at another radiative night. Skies will finally clear later tomorrow. With a fairly low starting point, temperatures will again fall to 45-50 degrees for most locations. I wouldn't rule out one last night into the 30s in the NW Hills! Thursday should easily be the nicest day of the week, with plenty of sunshine, and highs 70-75. There could be a rogue upper 70s reading in the I 91 corridor! Guidance for Thursday looks pretty good, with minor tweaks for microclimates.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: Of the entire forecast period, Friday probably has the lowest confidence. The NAM and GGEM want to develop a coastal low. Since the NAM and GGEM are by far the lowest scoring models, I will ignore them, A GFS/ECMWF blend is being used for this forecast. Even without the coastal low, however, a spoke of upper level energy will rotate through during the day, and as a result, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Ignoring the coastal low threat, I'll go with highs of 75-80. It is possible that the I 91 corridor sees one or two places exceed 80. Obviously, these temperatures could be much too warm if there is a coastal low.
The rest of the weekend and into early next week looks to feature very warm temperatures and a summertime heat wave, with Bermuda High pressure setting itself up offshore. Rather than do dailies, here are my expected high temperatures each day:
Saturday 80 to 85 NOTE: There is a small chance of a t-storm in the afternoon in the NW Hills.
Sunday: 90 to 95
Monday: 90 to 95
Tuesday: 90 to 95
On Wednesday, it is very probable we'll be tracking our first real squall line of the season, as a fairly potent cold front tracks into a hot humid air mass, with temperatures close to 90 degrees. Timing also looks very good from this early juncture.
The long range looks to feature warm temperatures, but not nearly as warm as that heat wave. The Bermuda Ridge will probably drift a bit eastward during that time frame, which would mean that we get into a more stormy pattern and we ride the "ring of fire" as showers and thunderstorms tend to be numerous along the edges of a heat ridge.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems that will be affecting our region. For this forecast, I will post Friday's map and a look at GFS 2m temps for Monday, for something a little different. This image actually looks reasonable for Friday. The only semblance of a coastal low is off of Halifax. But there is enough energy from the upper level low to swing through showers and thunderstorms.
Currently: Low pressure near Binghamton, with a trough extending down through EPA will swing through one more enhanced chance for showers tonight into early tomorrow morning, then the weather will begin to slowly improve.
Tonight: As mentioned, a weak sfc low over Srn NYS will drift Eastward and swing a trough through the region during the evening hours. As this happens, the whole process could spark a few showers. Conditions gradually improve overnight, although drizzle and fog is possible along the immediate south coast, as well as in valley locations. It really is next to impossible to predict whether or not drizzle will fall. First off, models only show precipitation that is measurable, and most of the time, drizzle is not measurable. Secondly, simulated radar wouldn't help either, since drizzle often does not even show up on radar. Therefore, the best way to approach this is to simply call for fog and patchy drizzle in the more prone areas. As for temperatures, I think the gridded data is too cold, as it is being overly aggressive in clearing skies tonight. Therefore, it will cool temperatures too fast, through radiative processes. Statistical guidance is better, since it keeps the skies generally overcast. I can't imagine clearing out at night with such a moist air mass in place. So lows of 45-50 look good statewide.
Tomorrow: There could be breaks of sun from time to time. The air mass is marginally unstable, with low convective temperatures. This should put a cap on how warm we can get, since any sun will destabilize the atmosphere and generate cumulus at the very least, and showers and thunderstorms at most. It is very possible that the immediate south coast gets socked in with low clouds and areas of drizzle and fog all day. Therefore, the best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be north of the Merritt Parkway. I am cautiously going to go a couple degrees above guidance tomorrow, calling for highs around 70. It is very possible that I bust way high on these temperatures, however, since fog and drizzle would keep temperatures down, as would any showers or thunderstorms that develop.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: As the pattern is changing, this could be our last chance at another radiative night. Skies will finally clear later tomorrow. With a fairly low starting point, temperatures will again fall to 45-50 degrees for most locations. I wouldn't rule out one last night into the 30s in the NW Hills! Thursday should easily be the nicest day of the week, with plenty of sunshine, and highs 70-75. There could be a rogue upper 70s reading in the I 91 corridor! Guidance for Thursday looks pretty good, with minor tweaks for microclimates.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: Of the entire forecast period, Friday probably has the lowest confidence. The NAM and GGEM want to develop a coastal low. Since the NAM and GGEM are by far the lowest scoring models, I will ignore them, A GFS/ECMWF blend is being used for this forecast. Even without the coastal low, however, a spoke of upper level energy will rotate through during the day, and as a result, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Ignoring the coastal low threat, I'll go with highs of 75-80. It is possible that the I 91 corridor sees one or two places exceed 80. Obviously, these temperatures could be much too warm if there is a coastal low.
The rest of the weekend and into early next week looks to feature very warm temperatures and a summertime heat wave, with Bermuda High pressure setting itself up offshore. Rather than do dailies, here are my expected high temperatures each day:
Saturday 80 to 85 NOTE: There is a small chance of a t-storm in the afternoon in the NW Hills.
Sunday: 90 to 95
Monday: 90 to 95
Tuesday: 90 to 95
On Wednesday, it is very probable we'll be tracking our first real squall line of the season, as a fairly potent cold front tracks into a hot humid air mass, with temperatures close to 90 degrees. Timing also looks very good from this early juncture.
The long range looks to feature warm temperatures, but not nearly as warm as that heat wave. The Bermuda Ridge will probably drift a bit eastward during that time frame, which would mean that we get into a more stormy pattern and we ride the "ring of fire" as showers and thunderstorms tend to be numerous along the edges of a heat ridge.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems that will be affecting our region. For this forecast, I will post Friday's map and a look at GFS 2m temps for Monday, for something a little different. This image actually looks reasonable for Friday. The only semblance of a coastal low is off of Halifax. But there is enough energy from the upper level low to swing through showers and thunderstorms.
Next, let's take a look at the GFS Model's temperatures at 2PM on Monday. Note just about the entire state is over 90 degrees, with an hour or two of heating to go!
Anyway, that's all for now.. enjoy the rest of your week and the rapidly changing weather conditions!
-GP!
-GP!
