Currently: High pressure over VT keeping us high and dry. Low pressure near the Quad Cities and various fronts extending from it will become the focal point of our wx the next couple days.
Tonight: Rain develops from SW to NE, beginning after dinner time in W CT, closer to midnite E CT. Rain falls steadily thru the nite, possibly heavy at times. Went a bit above guidance on temps, as temps really shouldn't fall all that much. Temps generally hovering near 40 thru most of the state.
Tomorrow: Steadiest and heaviest rain prob ends around dawn W CT to mid morning E CT. After that, clouds and scattered to numerous showers thruout the day. Gusty breezes up to 30 MPH as well. Temp guidance looks way too warm, given clouds, rain, and onshore flow. Temps prob only rise a few deg. I kept most of the state in the 40-45 deg range.
Tomorrow night/Fri: Rain finally ends around midnight W CT, predawn hrs E CT. Fri clears out and turns out to be a pretty nice day. Temps could be a bit tricky, depending on when skies clr. For now, I went quite a bit below guidance. Thinking clouds could hang on for quite a while, even if the rain ends. So for highs, I have most places 50-55, but I have SE CT the coldest and the inland areas near I 91 the warmest of the spreads.
Long Term: Winter makes its last stand during this pd.
Sat: An upper level low spinning aloft will prob generate at least scattered showers, esp after a few hrs of sun. Convective temps are low. In Addition, there's a pretty good pool of cold air just above the sfc. So any heavier showers could very well mix or change over to sleet (or maybe even snow N of the Merritt). I went pretty close to guidance, as we could briefly warm dramatically under sun, but most of the day won't be in the low 50s where the brief maxes will be.
Sun: Cold air really starts to move in. The ULL is also still spinning aloft. This combo leads me to go quite a bit below temp guidance. There could also be a quick snow shower as clouds increase. The sfc is much colder and upper levels are a bit colder, so I have only snow for any p-type. Highs only 40-45! Winds could gust up to 40 MPH and make it feel a lot colder!
Mon: The core of the cold moves overhead. The ULL pulls away, but the old sfc low is still spinning over the Canadian Maritimes. This will result in a cold, windy day. Went close to guidance, but a bit below. Highs only mid 30s thruout the state! Winds still gusting up to 40 MPH will make it feel a lot colder!
Tue: Winds finally begin to diminish, as pesky low pulls out of the Maritimes. Temps warm a bit, but still cold. Went well below guidance, as it likes to warm us up too quickly to climo at that range. Most highs near 40, but still staying in the 30s in the NW and NE corners of the state.
Wed: Finally warms up a bit. Still below normal, but much more tolerable. Went fairly close to guidance w/temps. Uniform mid to upper 40s for everyone. Don't want to get too cute w/specifics on day 7. Clouds could also increase late in the day, but again being day 7, no need to get too cute.
As we head into April, the month will kick off w/stormy and cool wx. It is not impossible that some areas, esp N areas above 1000' or so have not yet seen their last accumulating snow, but more on that much later!
Now, let's look at a couple graphics, showing our storm tomorrow and then the extent of the cold Mon. First, this is prob when our steadiest, heaviest rain falls, around dawn tomorrow. You can see steady rain covers the state, but the heaviest rain prob remains S of LI. Next, this map shows temp anomalies Mon. Look at the cold anomalies over the NE 1/4 of the CONUS!