SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WEATHER
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

Forecasters Discussion and Wintry Weather Map for 12/9/2014 event.

12/8/2014

Comments

 
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Currently across the state we have temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s statewide with mostly cloudy skies. Earlier we had some scattered light snow showers and freezing drizzle around the area. I do expect it to be mostly dry through midnight, but there could be some pockets of light precipitation popping up before dawn. So be careful as you head out this evening, as roads could slicken with even the weakest areas of precipitation. Temperatures across the state should gradually rise throughout the evening, but still remaining below freezing aside from the immediate shoreline. We will start to see heavier precipitation slowly move in as we head toward sunrise, and then things get interesting.

Early tomorrow morning, much of the state away from the coastline will be experiencing some type of freezing precipitation. Sleet and freezing rain will be prevalent in areas outside of Litchfield county where snow could still be falling. We expect there to be a sharp cutoff in snow accumulation based on how the mid levels of the atmosphere will warm quite rapidly as you head south and east of Litchfield county itself. In far northwestern Litchfield County, there could be upwards of 6 inches of snow, while at the New Haven/Litchfield county line there could be barely an inch. Even a half a degree colder or warmer would represent the difference between 6” and 0” in the NW hills, so as a result, I have gone towards the more aggressive forecast considering that it’s better to be safe than sorry in my opinion.

Icing looks to be a concern tomorrow morning in most areas. While I do expect there to be a changeover to plain rain as mid and surface level temps warm to above freezing, there will be just enough glaze to gum up travel in areas away from the shoreline. At the shoreline, it looks as though as frozen precipitation will change quickly to rain, which could be quite heavy as we head through the day on Tuesday. By the middle of the morning Tuesday, all of the state outside of far northwestern Litchfield County should change to rain, and it looks as though about 1-2 inches of rain could fall statewide. As the low begins to track over anywhere from New Haven to eastern Connecticut during the afternoon hours, most of the state will then transition to some lighter showers and drizzle with the possibility of precipitation shutting off completely as we end up in a dryslot between heavier bands of precip to our west and east. With the heavy rain possibilities, flood watches have been issued statewide from Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Temperatures for most of the state will rise above freezing relatively quickly tomorrow, allowing for icing concerns to become muted towards the end of the commute, especially by the 9 am hour. Here’s a map outlining the impacts from wintry precipitation for the state.

Picture
Other impacts that could be felt from the storm are winds,and coastal flooding. As a result, wind advisories and coastal flood warnings/advisories have been issued for areas directly adjacent to Long Island Sound, where the strong, developing low-pressure system could begin to pile up water into Long Island Sound. As far as wind goes, depending on track, we could see sustained winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to and over 50 mph, especially on the shoreline. The wind and coastal flooding concerns are very much track dependent, and a direct landfall of the first low pressure could lessen these impacts, but something worth being prepared for. Here’s a map of the max wind gusts(In KM per hour, so multiply by .62 to convert to MPH, from the 0z NAM model.
Picture
Heading through Wednesday and Thursday, a few different models hint at a second low-pressure system forming south of Long Island. At this point, precipitation intensity would pick back up again and temperatures would drop as the low moves north and east, creating a situation where virtually the entire state flips to snow on Thursday, and a few quick inches could be picked up before all is said and done.  Here’s a map of the 0z NAM for Thursday at 1 PM that is showing this possibility.

While the more likely scenario is that most see nothing but scattered rain and/or snow showers, enough of the forecast guidance shows this second scenario that we’re keeping a very close eye on it considering only a small shift east on the rest of the guidance would be needed to bring accumulating snow to at least portions of the state. The most likely areas to see additional snow would be western sections of the state, with your latitude mattering very little compared to your longitude. We are watching this part of the forecast very closely, and will update in more detail tomorrow or Wednesday if we see a shift on guidance towards a further east CCB and hence a snowier solution.

Overall, a complex, multi-faceted early season event indeed! We’ll be updating throughout as needed, but until then, stay safe and thanks for reading! -Tim
Picture
Comments

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Summer Forecast
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at [email protected]

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service