Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Currently across the state we have temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s statewide with mostly cloudy skies. Earlier we had some scattered light snow showers and freezing drizzle around the area. I do expect it to be mostly dry through midnight, but there could be some pockets of light precipitation popping up before dawn. So be careful as you head out this evening, as roads could slicken with even the weakest areas of precipitation. Temperatures across the state should gradually rise throughout the evening, but still remaining below freezing aside from the immediate shoreline. We will start to see heavier precipitation slowly move in as we head toward sunrise, and then things get interesting.
Early tomorrow morning, much of the state away from the coastline will be experiencing some type of freezing precipitation. Sleet and freezing rain will be prevalent in areas outside of Litchfield county where snow could still be falling. We expect there to be a sharp cutoff in snow accumulation based on how the mid levels of the atmosphere will warm quite rapidly as you head south and east of Litchfield county itself. In far northwestern Litchfield County, there could be upwards of 6 inches of snow, while at the New Haven/Litchfield county line there could be barely an inch. Even a half a degree colder or warmer would represent the difference between 6” and 0” in the NW hills, so as a result, I have gone towards the more aggressive forecast considering that it’s better to be safe than sorry in my opinion.
Icing looks to be a concern tomorrow morning in most areas. While I do expect there to be a changeover to plain rain as mid and surface level temps warm to above freezing, there will be just enough glaze to gum up travel in areas away from the shoreline. At the shoreline, it looks as though as frozen precipitation will change quickly to rain, which could be quite heavy as we head through the day on Tuesday. By the middle of the morning Tuesday, all of the state outside of far northwestern Litchfield County should change to rain, and it looks as though about 1-2 inches of rain could fall statewide. As the low begins to track over anywhere from New Haven to eastern Connecticut during the afternoon hours, most of the state will then transition to some lighter showers and drizzle with the possibility of precipitation shutting off completely as we end up in a dryslot between heavier bands of precip to our west and east. With the heavy rain possibilities, flood watches have been issued statewide from Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Temperatures for most of the state will rise above freezing relatively quickly tomorrow, allowing for icing concerns to become muted towards the end of the commute, especially by the 9 am hour. Here’s a map outlining the impacts from wintry precipitation for the state.
Currently across the state we have temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s statewide with mostly cloudy skies. Earlier we had some scattered light snow showers and freezing drizzle around the area. I do expect it to be mostly dry through midnight, but there could be some pockets of light precipitation popping up before dawn. So be careful as you head out this evening, as roads could slicken with even the weakest areas of precipitation. Temperatures across the state should gradually rise throughout the evening, but still remaining below freezing aside from the immediate shoreline. We will start to see heavier precipitation slowly move in as we head toward sunrise, and then things get interesting.
Early tomorrow morning, much of the state away from the coastline will be experiencing some type of freezing precipitation. Sleet and freezing rain will be prevalent in areas outside of Litchfield county where snow could still be falling. We expect there to be a sharp cutoff in snow accumulation based on how the mid levels of the atmosphere will warm quite rapidly as you head south and east of Litchfield county itself. In far northwestern Litchfield County, there could be upwards of 6 inches of snow, while at the New Haven/Litchfield county line there could be barely an inch. Even a half a degree colder or warmer would represent the difference between 6” and 0” in the NW hills, so as a result, I have gone towards the more aggressive forecast considering that it’s better to be safe than sorry in my opinion.
Icing looks to be a concern tomorrow morning in most areas. While I do expect there to be a changeover to plain rain as mid and surface level temps warm to above freezing, there will be just enough glaze to gum up travel in areas away from the shoreline. At the shoreline, it looks as though as frozen precipitation will change quickly to rain, which could be quite heavy as we head through the day on Tuesday. By the middle of the morning Tuesday, all of the state outside of far northwestern Litchfield County should change to rain, and it looks as though about 1-2 inches of rain could fall statewide. As the low begins to track over anywhere from New Haven to eastern Connecticut during the afternoon hours, most of the state will then transition to some lighter showers and drizzle with the possibility of precipitation shutting off completely as we end up in a dryslot between heavier bands of precip to our west and east. With the heavy rain possibilities, flood watches have been issued statewide from Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Temperatures for most of the state will rise above freezing relatively quickly tomorrow, allowing for icing concerns to become muted towards the end of the commute, especially by the 9 am hour. Here’s a map outlining the impacts from wintry precipitation for the state.
Other impacts that could be felt from the storm are winds,and coastal flooding. As a result, wind advisories and coastal flood warnings/advisories have been issued for areas directly adjacent to Long Island Sound, where the strong, developing low-pressure system could begin to pile up water into Long Island Sound. As far as wind goes, depending on track, we could see sustained winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to and over 50 mph, especially on the shoreline. The wind and coastal flooding concerns are very much track dependent, and a direct landfall of the first low pressure could lessen these impacts, but something worth being prepared for. Here’s a map of the max wind gusts(In KM per hour, so multiply by .62 to convert to MPH, from the 0z NAM model.
Heading through Wednesday and Thursday, a few different models hint at a second low-pressure system forming south of Long Island. At this point, precipitation intensity would pick back up again and temperatures would drop as the low moves north and east, creating a situation where virtually the entire state flips to snow on Thursday, and a few quick inches could be picked up before all is said and done. Here’s a map of the 0z NAM for Thursday at 1 PM that is showing this possibility.
While the more likely scenario is that most see nothing but scattered rain and/or snow showers, enough of the forecast guidance shows this second scenario that we’re keeping a very close eye on it considering only a small shift east on the rest of the guidance would be needed to bring accumulating snow to at least portions of the state. The most likely areas to see additional snow would be western sections of the state, with your latitude mattering very little compared to your longitude. We are watching this part of the forecast very closely, and will update in more detail tomorrow or Wednesday if we see a shift on guidance towards a further east CCB and hence a snowier solution.
Overall, a complex, multi-faceted early season event indeed! We’ll be updating throughout as needed, but until then, stay safe and thanks for reading! -Tim
Overall, a complex, multi-faceted early season event indeed! We’ll be updating throughout as needed, but until then, stay safe and thanks for reading! -Tim
