Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After a day of snow statewide, a mid-winter chill has returned to the great state of Connecticut. Ushered in by gusty winds, temps statewide stayed in the low to mid 20s, something like we'd see in January or February, not nearly mid March. Outside of the frigid, blustery conditions, skies stayed mostly sunny for the most part with a scattered snow shower or 2 statewide. Through this evening, cold conditions will persist with temperatures dropping back into the single digits inland with low teens at the shore, winds should begin to slacken as we head through the evening. For your Sunday, temperatures will be slightly "warmer" than today with highs at shore in the mid to upper 20s, and inland only making it to the low to mid 20s. Winds will be much less prevalent on Sunday than they are today, but there will still be a bit of a breeze. Mostly sunny conditions are also expected. Mostly clear conditions continue for Sunday night as temps dip back down into the low to mid teens statewide. For the day on Monday, things will start out tranquil and still unseasonably cold, with high temps at the shore getting into the low to mid 30s and struggling to make it into the 30s inland. Things look to be clear through the PM rush and early evening Monday, with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s, then clouds move in and things look to get interesting beginning late on Monday night...
After a day of snow statewide, a mid-winter chill has returned to the great state of Connecticut. Ushered in by gusty winds, temps statewide stayed in the low to mid 20s, something like we'd see in January or February, not nearly mid March. Outside of the frigid, blustery conditions, skies stayed mostly sunny for the most part with a scattered snow shower or 2 statewide. Through this evening, cold conditions will persist with temperatures dropping back into the single digits inland with low teens at the shore, winds should begin to slacken as we head through the evening. For your Sunday, temperatures will be slightly "warmer" than today with highs at shore in the mid to upper 20s, and inland only making it to the low to mid 20s. Winds will be much less prevalent on Sunday than they are today, but there will still be a bit of a breeze. Mostly sunny conditions are also expected. Mostly clear conditions continue for Sunday night as temps dip back down into the low to mid teens statewide. For the day on Monday, things will start out tranquil and still unseasonably cold, with high temps at the shore getting into the low to mid 30s and struggling to make it into the 30s inland. Things look to be clear through the PM rush and early evening Monday, with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s, then clouds move in and things look to get interesting beginning late on Monday night...
We are indeed watching for a significant winter weather event to impact the area from Monday night, around midnight, through early Wednesday morning. This is system that will have many moving parts for us to watch and forecast. There is an area of low pressure moving in from the Pacific northwest and another low pressure area moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. We are watching for an interaction, or "phase" of the 2 systems to occur as the Gulf low pressure "absorbs" the northern low pressure or shortwave system right along the Mid-Atlantic coast. One thing we are watching is the storm becoming too amplified too early, bringing the system further west, meaning more rain or mix for southeast Connecticut and the shoreline.Even in this case warning level snows would most likely fall before a brief changeover to rain, perhaps changing back to snow on the backside of the low. Another scenario we are watching is that the two lows phase into a strong storm, but have a track well to our south and east due to the pattern becoming too progressively fast and a lack of blocking, thus much less of a snow and wind impact to the state. Here southeast and shoreline areas likely remain snow, and have the higher totals, being the jackpot zones, if you will. Our thinking is somewhat in the middle of this, and a widespread impact to the state of Connecticut. Currently we have Blizzard Watches out for southern Fairfield, southern New Haven, and all of Middlesex and New London counties. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the rest of the state.
Timing: It looks as though snow will begin to fly across the state before midnight on Tuesday, becoming heavier in intensity as we move toward Tuesday morning. Snow will continue, heavy at times, with blizzard conditions possible through Tuesday evening. There could be a brief change over to some rain or sleet in the afternoon on Tuesday in far southeast Connecticut and parts of the shoreline. Precipitation looks to wind down in intensity and complete shut off by dawn on Wednesday, there could be a lingering snow shower or 2 during Wednesday morning before clearing occurs.
Impacts: Being a multi-faceted strong winter storm, there are bound to be some moderate to major impacts. First and foremost, accumulating snow. Currently we are thinking 6-12 inches of snow northwest of I84 with 8-14 inches elsewhere. This will not be like the Friday snowfall event where most of the snow did not stick to the pavement. The ground will be much colder for this storm with much higher snowfall rates expected, thus, we expect snow to cause major traffic issues. Also with a strong and deepening low pressure system tracking so close to the coast, winds do look to be a major factor as well. I am expecting sustained winds of 20-40 mph and gusts approaching 60 mph. The stronger winds will be experienced on the shoreline and in southeast Connecticut. These strong winds will also create blizzard conditions for a prolonged period of time. These winds combined with heavy snowfall and sub-freezing temperatures will potentially make being outside or traveling quite dangerous. Another impact of a coastal storm such as this one will be coastal flooding. Strong winds combined with high tides will make for coastal flooding in areas that are prone to it.
Technical talk: There is a northern stream shortwave tracking in from the Pacific northwest as well as a southern stream shortwave tracking northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico along the subtropical jet. Interaction between both shortwave systems should take place off the Mid-Atlantic resulting in a phase of both systems. Phased system will gradually track north and east and depending on amount of blocking and how progressive the flow is will determine ptype, qpf, and wind impact to Connecticut. Lack of blocking, an early phase, and rapid strengthening will make for a storm that tracks quite close to Long Island possibly tracking right over the western Cape, causing ptype issues for the SE shoreline. A more progressive flow and later phase would cause system to track well to our south and east and less snow the more northwest we go, if this looks to be the case, new map will need to be made adjusting snowfall numbers down slightly. The phased system will track in the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday morning, leaving gusty winds and frigid temperatures in its wake.
Beyond this next event, we are watching what could be an active pattern over the next 2 weeks. Whether it's wet or white will be determined, but we are definitely watching the long range.
This forecast is highly volatile and dependent on many moving parts, so things can change over the next few days, so please stay tuned. As always, thank you for continuing to make Southern Connecticut Weather your trusted source for all things Connecticut weather. Please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! If you do have any questions or comments, please share. Have a great night!- TW
Beyond this next event, we are watching what could be an active pattern over the next 2 weeks. Whether it's wet or white will be determined, but we are definitely watching the long range.
This forecast is highly volatile and dependent on many moving parts, so things can change over the next few days, so please stay tuned. As always, thank you for continuing to make Southern Connecticut Weather your trusted source for all things Connecticut weather. Please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! If you do have any questions or comments, please share. Have a great night!- TW
