Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It has been another cool, cloudy, and wet period this weekend, as a boundary has been the focal point for off and on precipitation throughout the weekend. The overall pattern has been unsettled, but nothing like what we're seeing in the midwest and south, where we are already well ahead of average in terms of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Here in Connecticut, this is our "quiet period", with very low risks of severe weather and winter storms, and extreme heat or cold unlikely given where we are in the climatological calendar. We'll take it! We're still monitoring the moderate drought that is ongoing for most, but with unsettled weather, it's significantly reducing the brush fire risk.
This time of year, the average high is in the mid 50s, with lows steadily creeping up through the 30s as well. We're still not out of the woods for freezes, so planters should keep that in mind.
The week ahead starts off with the chance of wintry precipitation overnight. Let's get to it.
It has been another cool, cloudy, and wet period this weekend, as a boundary has been the focal point for off and on precipitation throughout the weekend. The overall pattern has been unsettled, but nothing like what we're seeing in the midwest and south, where we are already well ahead of average in terms of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Here in Connecticut, this is our "quiet period", with very low risks of severe weather and winter storms, and extreme heat or cold unlikely given where we are in the climatological calendar. We'll take it! We're still monitoring the moderate drought that is ongoing for most, but with unsettled weather, it's significantly reducing the brush fire risk.
This time of year, the average high is in the mid 50s, with lows steadily creeping up through the 30s as well. We're still not out of the woods for freezes, so planters should keep that in mind.
The week ahead starts off with the chance of wintry precipitation overnight. Let's get to it.
Above: the European Ensemble (EPS) showing most of April with colder to near normal temperatures on balance. This image averages temperatures in 5 day increments, so it's a strong signal that at least through the middle of April, sustained warm temperatures are not on the table.
Monday
Yesterday I flagged that short range high resolution guidance was showing a drier Sunday, but that came at the expense of colder temperatures that could set the stage for some wintry precipitation early Monday. We'll, that is looking likely, but we're not expecting much.
The guidance is split on this. While the NAM and Euro are much weaker with precipitation and the level of cold available to take advantage of moisture to bring snow/sleet, the HRRR and GFS are much more aggressive, bringing snow in most of northern CT, and the HRRR even has snow going into the AM commute.
I lean heavily toward the NAM and Euro, but I do think that some wintry precipitation will occur overnight in northern CT. Most spots in the northern four counties probably see a brief period of wintry precipitation, but it amounts to nothing. Most probably sleep right through it. In the hill towns, a coating is possible, and you may very well wake up to snow/sleet. I am not expecting significant delays in the morning.
Monday will be a seasonably cold, wet, and cloudy day, with rain showers possible through the day. It won't rain all the time, but it'll be another blah day where even if the radar looks light, drizzle will be possible.
NAM (top) and the HRRR (bottom) show the differing forecasts, which are pretty significant this close to precipitation falling.
Monday
Yesterday I flagged that short range high resolution guidance was showing a drier Sunday, but that came at the expense of colder temperatures that could set the stage for some wintry precipitation early Monday. We'll, that is looking likely, but we're not expecting much.
The guidance is split on this. While the NAM and Euro are much weaker with precipitation and the level of cold available to take advantage of moisture to bring snow/sleet, the HRRR and GFS are much more aggressive, bringing snow in most of northern CT, and the HRRR even has snow going into the AM commute.
I lean heavily toward the NAM and Euro, but I do think that some wintry precipitation will occur overnight in northern CT. Most spots in the northern four counties probably see a brief period of wintry precipitation, but it amounts to nothing. Most probably sleep right through it. In the hill towns, a coating is possible, and you may very well wake up to snow/sleet. I am not expecting significant delays in the morning.
Monday will be a seasonably cold, wet, and cloudy day, with rain showers possible through the day. It won't rain all the time, but it'll be another blah day where even if the radar looks light, drizzle will be possible.
NAM (top) and the HRRR (bottom) show the differing forecasts, which are pretty significant this close to precipitation falling.
Tuesday-Thursday
The middle of the week looks quiet, but cold. In the wake of the system tomorrow, we should see the boundary solidly to the south as a trough move in, bringing cold. Tuesday looks cold and breezy with highs as low as the low 40s. Wednesday should be sunny and slightly warmer, but not by much. Thursday could put us back in the 50s, but still likely below normal. Tuesday and Wednesday night could put most of inland CT in the upper 20s to low 30s. While Thursday could bring the chance of rain as a storm system moves toward the region, I am keeping the probabilities low for now.
Friday-Sunday
Once again, the weekend is in question. The models are in agreement right now that another system will traverse the midwest and meander into the northeast as early as Thursday. At the every least, by Friday we are increasingly likely to see showers as the storm moves in, and the weekend could be a washout depending on how strong this storm system gets as it goes offshore. I wouldn't cancel plans right now, but if you have outdoor plans for the weekend, stay tuned as the forecast comes into better focus.
As noted above, the GFS (top) and Euro (bottom) are in solid agreement about some storm system impacting the end of the week.
The middle of the week looks quiet, but cold. In the wake of the system tomorrow, we should see the boundary solidly to the south as a trough move in, bringing cold. Tuesday looks cold and breezy with highs as low as the low 40s. Wednesday should be sunny and slightly warmer, but not by much. Thursday could put us back in the 50s, but still likely below normal. Tuesday and Wednesday night could put most of inland CT in the upper 20s to low 30s. While Thursday could bring the chance of rain as a storm system moves toward the region, I am keeping the probabilities low for now.
Friday-Sunday
Once again, the weekend is in question. The models are in agreement right now that another system will traverse the midwest and meander into the northeast as early as Thursday. At the every least, by Friday we are increasingly likely to see showers as the storm moves in, and the weekend could be a washout depending on how strong this storm system gets as it goes offshore. I wouldn't cancel plans right now, but if you have outdoor plans for the weekend, stay tuned as the forecast comes into better focus.
As noted above, the GFS (top) and Euro (bottom) are in solid agreement about some storm system impacting the end of the week.
The Dailies
Monday: Snow/sleet/rain mix early, especially inland. Otherwise rain showers with mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Chance of snow/sleet inland 60%, chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Decreasing clouds, seasonably cold, and breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers late. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Snow/sleet/rain mix early, especially inland. Otherwise rain showers with mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Chance of snow/sleet inland 60%, chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Decreasing clouds, seasonably cold, and breezy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers late. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
