Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
This is just a brief discussion covering what is already turning into an exceptional heat wave. Sunday we had the curveball of morning clouds and convection, but that did not stop most stations from reaching the low 90s. Today we saw truly exceptional heat by way of air temperatures and humidity producing truly high end heat indices over most of the day and even into tonight. Tomorrow will feature even higher air temperatures, and some guidance is showing a legitimate chance to tie or break all time high temperatures.
This is just a brief discussion covering what is already turning into an exceptional heat wave. Sunday we had the curveball of morning clouds and convection, but that did not stop most stations from reaching the low 90s. Today we saw truly exceptional heat by way of air temperatures and humidity producing truly high end heat indices over most of the day and even into tonight. Tomorrow will feature even higher air temperatures, and some guidance is showing a legitimate chance to tie or break all time high temperatures.
Above: RTMA analysis of heat indices in the eastern part of the country during the peak of the heat/humidity earlier today. While some official stations reached intra-hour heat indices of up to 115 degrees--truly exceptional--it was the communities that bore the brunt of the heat, with some places showing heat indices over 120 degrees. Heat indices reaching over 100 reached deep into Canada today, speaking to the immense geographic scope of the ridge responsible for this heat.
Day Two--Big Heat. Bigger Humidity
Today was high end in every sense of the term. New Haven first recorded a heat index of 100 at 8:15am. With records going back to 1948, this likely smashed the earliest New Haven has seen a heat index that high that early.
Day Two--Big Heat. Bigger Humidity
Today was high end in every sense of the term. New Haven first recorded a heat index of 100 at 8:15am. With records going back to 1948, this likely smashed the earliest New Haven has seen a heat index that high that early.
It doesn't stop there. Using ASOS data from around the state:
The more moisture in the air, the harder it is to warm the surface. That's what makes today so impressive, we had high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in most spots (especially inland) and still had heat indices between 105-115 at official stations. That means that dew points were in the upper 70s to low 80s and it didn't matter for insulating the surface.
In areas that saw dew points fall due to more mixing in the atmosphere, we saw temperatures reach 100. Plattsburgh, NY saw its warmest temperature in 50 years today, and both Hartford and BDL reached 98 late as mixing allowed for more late day heat.
Tonight will be hot and humid--setting the stage for the peak tomorrow.
Day Three--Historic Heat on the Table
Tomorrow we have two significant changes that should take place. First, the wind direction will be more westerly, which should block the sea breeze that has protected the shoreline from high end air temperatures. The second is that the ridge peaks and brings in the warmest temperatures yet aloft. Some guidance is seeing the potential for historic heat.
- Bridgeport (BDR) recorded a daily record air temperature and more impressively, tied the sixth highest heat index with records going back to the 1940s.
- New Haven (HVN) tied for sixth highest heat index with records going back to the 1940s. Interestingly, the record came last year.
- Meriden (MMK), which goes back to 1975, recorded its second highest heat index ever, with the record being set in 2000.
- Bradley Airport (BDL), with records going back to the 1940s, tied its 7th highest heat index.
- Hartford (city HFD) tied for 3rd all time with records going back to the 1940s. Note that it had an intra-hour maximum of 115 degrees, which would have put it second all time.
The more moisture in the air, the harder it is to warm the surface. That's what makes today so impressive, we had high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in most spots (especially inland) and still had heat indices between 105-115 at official stations. That means that dew points were in the upper 70s to low 80s and it didn't matter for insulating the surface.
In areas that saw dew points fall due to more mixing in the atmosphere, we saw temperatures reach 100. Plattsburgh, NY saw its warmest temperature in 50 years today, and both Hartford and BDL reached 98 late as mixing allowed for more late day heat.
Tonight will be hot and humid--setting the stage for the peak tomorrow.
Day Three--Historic Heat on the Table
Tomorrow we have two significant changes that should take place. First, the wind direction will be more westerly, which should block the sea breeze that has protected the shoreline from high end air temperatures. The second is that the ridge peaks and brings in the warmest temperatures yet aloft. Some guidance is seeing the potential for historic heat.
Above: the NOAA Model Blend, which takes the best of our guidance and produces a forecast. Temperatures are expected to top 100 tomorrow across most of CT with the blend.
But using the blend only gets you so far. Given the impressive heating today, a wind shift tomorrow, and the highest end 850mb and 925mb temperatures we get in the region, the forecast if it verifies would tie all time records from 2011 at HFD and BDL.
But using the blend only gets you so far. Given the impressive heating today, a wind shift tomorrow, and the highest end 850mb and 925mb temperatures we get in the region, the forecast if it verifies would tie all time records from 2011 at HFD and BDL.
Above: the NWS expects highs above 100 in parts of the state tomorrow. Daily records and all time June records are in jeopardy, and all time heat records could be tied or broken tomorrow. This is truly extraordinary, made even more so by the fact that it's happening in June.
The "saving grace" is that with more mixing, we get rid of some of these dew points. We'll see how much we mix out tomorrow but it won't be too much of a reprieve, if any. Expect heat indices between 100-110 once again at the official sites, and higher elsewhere.
The impact of heat compounds on the body. Take it easy tomorrow and stay hydrated.
The "saving grace" is that with more mixing, we get rid of some of these dew points. We'll see how much we mix out tomorrow but it won't be too much of a reprieve, if any. Expect heat indices between 100-110 once again at the official sites, and higher elsewhere.
The impact of heat compounds on the body. Take it easy tomorrow and stay hydrated.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
