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Extended Forecast Discussion for Sunday, November 2nd, 2014.

11/2/2014

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Over the past 24 hours we have been dealing with a disturbance that ended up intensifying into a strong nor'easter in the Atlantic Ocean, areas in eastern New England up through Maine were actually measuring snow this afternoon. The main story for Connecticut has been the persistent strong winds since yesterday. Gusts have approached and often times exceeded 40 mph, especially in eastern Connecticut, leading to some power outages. Winds will continue through tomorrow evening with gusts still approaching 30 mph before dying down later Monday evening. Also on the backside of this nor'easter, temperatures have become quite chilly and will continue to drop through the low 30s at the shore, and into the mid and upper 20s inland, leading to a cold morning at the bus stop tomorrow. The cold temps combined with the winds will lead to wind chills in the 20s later tonight through Monday morning commute, so bundle up if you need to be outside.

Looking ahead through tomorrow, temps don't look to moderate very much, maybe making it to the mid 40s inland and upper 40s at the shore, under sunny skies with previously mentioned wind gusts persisting. Heading through the evening, winds will die down with temps dropping through into the 30s across the state.

Dry conditions look to continue through Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures warming to near 60 for highs on Tuesday and exceeding 60 on Wednesday, with partly cloudy skies.

Here's where the forecast gets tricky, we are watching for a low pressure system to impact the area from Thursday night through Saturday morning. Many of the models have this area disturbed weather tracking too close to the coast at this time for wintry weather, but it looks like the state could be once again impacted by high winds and heavy rain, with cold air returning on the backside of the storm later Friday night and Saturday with temps plummeting, and staying cold for the weekend. Here's a look at the GFS model for what this storm looks like, just to give you an idea of what's out there as a possibility. Keep in mind that this is one run of one model, and can and will change, this is just a snapshot of the dynamic picture. We'll talk more about the system later in the week if it's still showing up on guidance.

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Looking even further ahead, there are hints that the storm train does not stop, and a signal for another storm to impact the area early next week (11/10 time period), much too soon to determine whether or not this storm system will be wet or white or both, but just know the chances and potential are there.

It is Sunday night, and as we do most every Sunday night, here's the extended forecast:

Tonight: Clear, windy and cold, wind gusts approaching and exceeding 40 mph, temps mid to upper 20s inland, low 30s at the shore, chance of precip 0%.

Monday: Sunny, windy, and chilly, wind gusts approaching and exceeding 30 mph, highs mid 40s inland, upper 40s at the shore, chance of precip 0%

Monday night: Mostly clear, winds dying down, gusts to 20 mph early winding down late, temps low 30s inland, mid 30s at the shore, chance of precip 0%

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, warmer temps, mid 50s inland, upper 50s approaching 60 at the shore, chance of precip 10%

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, temps mid to upper 30s inland, low 40s at the shore, chance of precip 10%

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, temps low 60s across the state, chance of rain 0%

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, temps mid to upper 40s across the state, chance of rain 20%

Thursday: *watching track of low pressure* Increasing clouds, rain moving in during the afternoon, winds increasing, temps mid 50s inland, upper 50s to around 60 at the shore, chance of precip 40%

Thursday night: *watching track of low pressure* Rain, heavy at times, raw and windy, temps mid to upper 40s inland, low 50s at the shore, chance of precip 40%

Friday: *watching track of low pressure* Periods of rain,windy, temps low 60s, chance of precip 30%

Friday night: Showers early, clearing, becoming colder could be some scattered snow showers especially in higher elevations, remaining windy, temps mid 50s early, dropping through the 40s and into the 30s late. Chance of precip 20%

Saturday: Chance of early snow shower, winds will persist early and taper off in the afternoon, otherwise becoming sunny, much colder, upper 30s inland, low 40s at the shore, chance of precip 10%. Here's a graphic of highs for Saturday, again from the GFS model. Keep in mind that this model is often biased towards warm, and considering the setup, will likely be a bit too warm(that's why we went a few degrees under it for a forecast). 
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Saturday night: Clear and cold, temps mid to upper 20s inland, low 30s at the shore, chance of precip 10%

Sunday: Sunny and cool, temps low to mid 40s across the state, chance of precip 0%

Sunday night: Increasing clouds, temps mid to upper 20s inland, low 30s at the shore, chance of precip 10%

Have a good rest of your evening everyone! Bundle up as you head out this evening and tomorrow morning, the wind and cold will lead to very uncomfortable conditions and the threat of frostbite and hypothermia. As always, thank you for reading!
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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