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Extended inland heat wave expected to continue through the first few days of July...

7/1/2018

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What a day. Temperatures for a number of inland locations fell just below 100, but that didn't save us as exceptionally high dew points (a measure of moisture in the atmosphere) led to a heat index at or over 100 in much of the state. Some inland areas recorded heat indices at or over 110. Hope you were able to stay cool! 
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Heat Index map at 3pm courtesy of Fox 61. Things got even hotter from there between 4-6pm. 

As we progress through the week, we're going to see continued hot conditions that only gradually fade over time. We're also going to see increased chances of showers and thunderstorms. 
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European Ensemble projection of the upper level pattern over the next week. Overall, we see a gradual weakening and shift away from our region. The result will be diminishing heat during the rest of the heat wave and increased chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Monday
Tomorrow will be less hot, but not by much. Tomorrow we will continue to see temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland and slightly cooler at the shore. Humidity levels will drop off a bit, but we'll still see dew points approach 70. That means we should see heat indices in the 100s for many inland spots again, though not as high as today.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for everywhere but the shoreline for tomorrow.
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Potential high temperatures tomorrow from the NWS. I think we will see temperatures a touch higher in some inland spots, particularly in the CT River Valley. 

Tuesday
Tuesday looks to be our first real chance of any showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon or evening. Unfortunately, the day looks about as hot as Monday. Odds of a shower or storm look pretty low right now. Anything that pops should look like typical late day storms. Nothing screams severe threat at this time. 

Independence Day
Can you believe that we're already near the 4th of July? Independence Day 2018 looks like a hot one, with a chance of thunderstorms during the evening hours. 

Thursday
The 5th of July (my birthday!) could be the last day of the heat wave if we're lucky. Storm chances persist as a cold front begins to approach and get hung up in the region. Overall, each of the prior days look fine, aside from the chance of storms. 

Friday
Although the heat could break on Thursday, it's much more likely that Friday is our last 90 degree day, as the front comes through and we see shower and thunderstorms. I am leaning toward a later arrival of the front, meaning that Friday is another hot and humid day. 
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GFS projection of 850mb temperatures during the latter half of the week. Can you spot the front (read: relief)?
The Weekend
The early look at the weekend suggests that we're back down to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels. The front finally pushes through the region and high pressure builds in, giving us much nicer conditions. Here's to hoping that front makes it through! 

Final Note
The duration of this heat wave is the main story. You may not notice it, but heat takes a toll on your body over time. The combination of high daytime temperatures, high humidity levels, and high nighttime temperatures make us all more susceptible to heat related illnesses, no matter your age or health. Make sure you continue to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks when you are outside. Heat related illnesses can hit very quickly, or cause preexisting conditions to flare up. It doesn't need to be a record hot day to do damage. Take this heat wave seriously! 
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The Dailies
Monday: Hot and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s at the shore. Chance of storms 10%. 

Tuesday: Hot and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s at the shore. Chance of storms 10%.

Wednesday: Hot and humid with a chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s at the shore. Chance of storms 40%.

Thursday: Hot with a chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s at the shore. Chance of storms 20%.

Friday: Hot and humid with a chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s at the shore. Chance of storms 60%. 

Saturday: MUCH BETTER. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 80s at the shore. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 80s at the shore.

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB
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