Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
As many of you saw on Facebook, yesterday brought major flooding to parts of eastern Connecticut during the afternoon and in parts of Litchfield County overnight. Ashford was hit especially hard, with roads and bridges washed out and river flooding not seen since the Great Hurricane of 1938. This has been a truly exceptional pattern over the last 3-4 weeks in Connecticut, with virtually no state spared from excessively wet conditions on a near daily basis.
What this means is that a lot of communities have saturated water tables and waterways that are vulnerable to flooding from heavy rain events. Even in my town of East Hartford, the Hockanum River has seen two top ten floods in recorded history in the last two weeks.
The week ahead is set to begin with the same pattern in place, but we could (emphasis on could) see a bit of a break as we get toward the end of the forecast period. It'd be much needed for Connecticut. Let's dive in.
As many of you saw on Facebook, yesterday brought major flooding to parts of eastern Connecticut during the afternoon and in parts of Litchfield County overnight. Ashford was hit especially hard, with roads and bridges washed out and river flooding not seen since the Great Hurricane of 1938. This has been a truly exceptional pattern over the last 3-4 weeks in Connecticut, with virtually no state spared from excessively wet conditions on a near daily basis.
What this means is that a lot of communities have saturated water tables and waterways that are vulnerable to flooding from heavy rain events. Even in my town of East Hartford, the Hockanum River has seen two top ten floods in recorded history in the last two weeks.
The week ahead is set to begin with the same pattern in place, but we could (emphasis on could) see a bit of a break as we get toward the end of the forecast period. It'd be much needed for Connecticut. Let's dive in.
Above: the departure from normal with regard to precipitation in the month of July. Most of the state is over 300% above normal for the month, and that is causing a lot of issues from basement flooding to flash flood events like the ones we saw yesterday and during Tropical Storm Elsa. There are a number of river flood warnings in effect as the rivers and streams are overflowing their banks.
Monday/Tuesday
Although we're not expecting widespread rain, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Things look cloudy and relatively cool, with highs in the 70s. This is actually the time of year that tends to be the warmest for us, so the cloudy and rainy are a tradeoff for less hot conditions. That doesn't really help though when it is humid outside.
Tuesday looks good right now, with a reduced chance of showers and storms in the afternoon or evening. Highs look to be near normal for this time of year, with most in the low to mid 80s. Some upper 80s are possible in the typical warm inland spots.
Monday/Tuesday
Although we're not expecting widespread rain, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Things look cloudy and relatively cool, with highs in the 70s. This is actually the time of year that tends to be the warmest for us, so the cloudy and rainy are a tradeoff for less hot conditions. That doesn't really help though when it is humid outside.
Tuesday looks good right now, with a reduced chance of showers and storms in the afternoon or evening. Highs look to be near normal for this time of year, with most in the low to mid 80s. Some upper 80s are possible in the typical warm inland spots.
Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week brings a return to wet weather, as another boundary tries to sink south and passes through the region. Wednesday looks like it could be a fairly wet day, with both the GFS and Euro in agreement that at the very least widespread showers look possible. We'll need to watch for thunderstorms during Wednesday, but at this time I am less concerned about severe thunderstorms than I am another potential heavy rainfall event happening somewhere in the state. Stay tuned to additional forecasts for Wednesday.
The middle of the week brings a return to wet weather, as another boundary tries to sink south and passes through the region. Wednesday looks like it could be a fairly wet day, with both the GFS and Euro in agreement that at the very least widespread showers look possible. We'll need to watch for thunderstorms during Wednesday, but at this time I am less concerned about severe thunderstorms than I am another potential heavy rainfall event happening somewhere in the state. Stay tuned to additional forecasts for Wednesday.
Above is the the GFS from earlier today, depicting what may be a wet and stormy Wednesday in CT. Fortunately, it looks like it is a relatively quick mover. While Wednesday looks wet, Thursday looks good right now with clearing and less humid conditions.
Friday-Sunday
Of course, in this pattern, nice days are hard to come by for a reason. By Friday, we're watching another potential system push through the region via another boundary, which may be potent. Once again, both the GFS and Euro agree on the general progression, but differ on timing.
For now, Friday looks similar to Wednesday to me, with widespread showers and possible thunderstorms at some point during the day, most likely in the afternoon and evening if I had to take a slightly educated guess right now.
In the wake of the unsettled weather, we should see another return to nice conditions with Saturday and Sunday at first glance looking quiet with sunny conditions and comfortable temperatures and humidity, especially on Saturday. How long that actually lasts remains to be seen, as the guidance tries to bring--you guessed it--more rain by the start of the following week.
Of course, in this pattern, nice days are hard to come by for a reason. By Friday, we're watching another potential system push through the region via another boundary, which may be potent. Once again, both the GFS and Euro agree on the general progression, but differ on timing.
For now, Friday looks similar to Wednesday to me, with widespread showers and possible thunderstorms at some point during the day, most likely in the afternoon and evening if I had to take a slightly educated guess right now.
In the wake of the unsettled weather, we should see another return to nice conditions with Saturday and Sunday at first glance looking quiet with sunny conditions and comfortable temperatures and humidity, especially on Saturday. How long that actually lasts remains to be seen, as the guidance tries to bring--you guessed it--more rain by the start of the following week.
Above is a GFS depiction of dew points as we head into next weekend. Saturday looks nice right now and Sunday isn't too bad either, although we need to watch if rain moves in earlier.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Chance of showers late. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Chance of showers late. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
