Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Extreme drought has arrived in CT according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the "extreme drought" area is relatively small, we saw a big jump--more than double the coverage--for "severe drought". Now, more than 75% of the state is designated to be in a severe or extreme drought, the most since 2017.
Extreme drought has arrived in CT according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the "extreme drought" area is relatively small, we saw a big jump--more than double the coverage--for "severe drought". Now, more than 75% of the state is designated to be in a severe or extreme drought, the most since 2017.
Above: the current Drought Monitor designation.
To be clear, this isn't unprecedented. In fact, our last extreme drought came in 2020. But the fact that we've seen three of these since 2016 is concerning.
This is our most expansive and severe drought since the long-duration 2016-17 drought.
Below are the peak drought images we were able to pull from the U.S. Drought Monitor from our past droughts.
2020 Drought
To be clear, this isn't unprecedented. In fact, our last extreme drought came in 2020. But the fact that we've seen three of these since 2016 is concerning.
This is our most expansive and severe drought since the long-duration 2016-17 drought.
Below are the peak drought images we were able to pull from the U.S. Drought Monitor from our past droughts.
2020 Drought
The summer/fall drought in 2020 was relatively short duration (early August - early November), but as you can see, at one point nearly 40% of the state was in extreme drought while other parts were just abnormally dry.
2016-17 Drought
2016-17 Drought
The 2016-17 drought was long, extreme, and likely our worst drought in the past 20 years. All of the state began as abnormally dry in June 2016. Things peaked in extreme drought for just under 45% of the state (the most since the start of the Drought Monitor) in November 2016. The entire state returned to normal in June 2017.
2001-2002 Drought
2001-2002 Drought
The 2002 drought is noteworthy because of the widespread severity of it. This is the only time 100% of the state had a severe drought or greater since the start of the monitor in 2000. Abnormally dry conditions for the entire state began in October 2001. The peak of the drought came in April 2002, where SW CT experienced extreme drought. The entire state returned to normal in November 2002.
Today's Drought
Today's Drought
Above: percent of normal precipitation in the last 90 days. Image courtesy of the National Regional Climate Centers.
So where do we really stand? Is this normal? Just summer being summer?
Well, as you can see, this isn't summer being summer. This is an anomalously dry pattern.
There are a few different ways to look at drought, but one key takeaway is that it's relative. An extreme drought here, where wells are stressed and there are significant water restrictions, is not the same as an extreme drought in a place like California, where an extreme drought can mean total crop loss, massive wildfires, and public drinking water supplies threatened.
That said, we don't need to be California to be bad. Relative to our climate, which tends to be temperate, this is a bad drought.
Another critical measure of drought includes looking at soil moisture vs water levels. This is an important distinction, because while soil can recover fairly quickly, water levels indicate a much deeper drought which requires a longer dry period and longer wet period for complete recovery.
The Palmer Hydrological Drought Index shows this well. Although this is a severe to extreme drought based mostly on soil impacts and lack of precipitation, it's still relatively moderate with regard to reservoir levels, the water table, and to a lesser extent, groundwater. Meanwhile in the west, it's downright ugly. We don't ever want to see that here.
Well, as you can see, this isn't summer being summer. This is an anomalously dry pattern.
There are a few different ways to look at drought, but one key takeaway is that it's relative. An extreme drought here, where wells are stressed and there are significant water restrictions, is not the same as an extreme drought in a place like California, where an extreme drought can mean total crop loss, massive wildfires, and public drinking water supplies threatened.
That said, we don't need to be California to be bad. Relative to our climate, which tends to be temperate, this is a bad drought.
Another critical measure of drought includes looking at soil moisture vs water levels. This is an important distinction, because while soil can recover fairly quickly, water levels indicate a much deeper drought which requires a longer dry period and longer wet period for complete recovery.
The Palmer Hydrological Drought Index shows this well. Although this is a severe to extreme drought based mostly on soil impacts and lack of precipitation, it's still relatively moderate with regard to reservoir levels, the water table, and to a lesser extent, groundwater. Meanwhile in the west, it's downright ugly. We don't ever want to see that here.
Although many of the public reservoirs remain solid, this drought is having an impact. Aside from struggling gardens and wells, dead lawns, and a fall foliage season that is likely to struggle, the drought has had a real impact on farmers across the state, many of whom rely on the rains for grazing grass, hay production, and harvests that put food on our tables.
While we've seen worse droughts--the 1960s are the benchmark when it comes to drought in the northeast--this one is certainly bad, and it's likely to get worse.
Drought Outlook
While we've seen worse droughts--the 1960s are the benchmark when it comes to drought in the northeast--this one is certainly bad, and it's likely to get worse.
Drought Outlook
While the guidance tries to bring more rainfall in the coming weeks, we've seen this before and it hasn't turned out well. What we need to begin reversing the trend is a wholesale pattern change that brings frequent light to moderate rain events that are allowed to soak into the ground. The most recent Climate Prediction Center forecast predicts that the drought is likely to remain with us for an extended period. If it remains the severity will likely expand as well. How much remains to be seen.
The story of the summer has unfortunately become the drought, and as we begin turning the page toward fall, that is likely to continue. Absent a pattern change that moves us closer to coastal low season, what we're likely to need is a tropical connection.
As we approach the peak of what is a currently quiet hurricane season, we will see if things turn around as they did last summer, from tropical remnants or direct impacts...
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
The story of the summer has unfortunately become the drought, and as we begin turning the page toward fall, that is likely to continue. Absent a pattern change that moves us closer to coastal low season, what we're likely to need is a tropical connection.
As we approach the peak of what is a currently quiet hurricane season, we will see if things turn around as they did last summer, from tropical remnants or direct impacts...
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
