After our deep period of summer wx, our overall pattern looks to be fairly normal for the time of yr, w/enough rain chances to keep the grass and reservoirs happy, as well.
Currently: Cold front over the Del Bay area is now going stationary. This area has to be watched for tomorrow, but right now, all indications are that, other than clouds, it is not going to bother our area. However, this front has gone stationary some 150-200 mi N of where it was progged to do so, like I said, just something to keep an eye on.
Tonight: Generally fair wx w/clearing skies and comfy humidity. Nights are short this time of yr, and radiational conditions are not ideal, so temp guidance was followed closely. Look for lows near 60.
Tomorrow: For now, going a bit cloudier than guidance, due to the front being N of where it was progged. Keeping pcpn S of the area for now, but it would not totally shock me if the S coast got some light rain tomorrow afternoon. For now, a dry fcst. But because I think we'll be near ovc, and most guidance has mosunny, I cut guidance temps substantially. Look for highs only in the mid to upper 60s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Clearing skies. A brief shower or t-shower could skirt the NW hills Sat, but probability is just too low to include in the fcst right now. For temps, w/cold air advection in place, I'll go just a smidge under guidance. Look for highs of 70-75. All in all, a very nice day Sat.
Long Term: (Sun to next Thurs): The main unsettled portion of the long term looks to be Sun-Tue. After that, the wx looks largely benign for quite a while.
For Sun, a front approaches the area. Looks like widespread convection will fire early in the afternoon over PA then propagate E during the day. May get here too late for widespread severe here, but there should be at least widespread rain w/imbedded thunder. Temps will be tricky. I cut about 5 deg off guidance, because I think too many ECMWF members are skewing the mean. ECMWF does not seem to realize a cold front is going thru. Highs should be near 70.
For Mon, the front sags S of the region, but stays close enough to keep at least moderate levels of humidity. W/no real high pressure building in behind the front, I think we need at least slight chances for diurnal based t-storms, esp along the S coast, where you'll be closer to the front. W/more sun, we should definitely turn warmer. I went very close to guidance highs near 80 degrees, except allowed for some low 80s along I 91, where I went a touch warmer than guidance.
For Tue, another cold front approaches the area, which will serve to fire scattered t-storms once again. This front will also absorb the old front and allow our wx to calm down, at least for a while. Once again, high temps generally close to 80, but I could see low 80s near I 91. So I went close to guidance, but a bit above along I 91.
The rest of the long term looks quiet. There probably will not be another chance of any precip until the following weekend and that does not look widespread, at least from this far out. Cold air advection on both Wed and Thu looks stronger than the NBM would advertise. This far out, when you have advection, whether warm or cold, a blended avg will underdo it. Therefore, I went 3-5 deg below guidance both days. Should be absolutely beautiful w/low dew points. There could even be refreshing wind gusts up to 25-30 MPH on Thu! Look for highs of 70-75 both days, with Wed being the cooler day, and a few 75+ readings possible near I 91 on Thu.
The long range looks pretty normal, both w/regards to temps and precip. There look to be cold fronts every few days, which both bring a chance of a t-storm to keep our precip normal and also end warm-ups to keep temps near normal. A very normal looking June pattern in the long range!
Now, let's take a look at a couple graphical products, showing the main wx threats for this fcst package. First, I have a map for Sun's cold front and secondly, a map for Tue's cold front. You can see, on this map valid late in the day Sun, precip is on going across much of the NE, w/CT being no exception.
Currently: Cold front over the Del Bay area is now going stationary. This area has to be watched for tomorrow, but right now, all indications are that, other than clouds, it is not going to bother our area. However, this front has gone stationary some 150-200 mi N of where it was progged to do so, like I said, just something to keep an eye on.
Tonight: Generally fair wx w/clearing skies and comfy humidity. Nights are short this time of yr, and radiational conditions are not ideal, so temp guidance was followed closely. Look for lows near 60.
Tomorrow: For now, going a bit cloudier than guidance, due to the front being N of where it was progged. Keeping pcpn S of the area for now, but it would not totally shock me if the S coast got some light rain tomorrow afternoon. For now, a dry fcst. But because I think we'll be near ovc, and most guidance has mosunny, I cut guidance temps substantially. Look for highs only in the mid to upper 60s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Clearing skies. A brief shower or t-shower could skirt the NW hills Sat, but probability is just too low to include in the fcst right now. For temps, w/cold air advection in place, I'll go just a smidge under guidance. Look for highs of 70-75. All in all, a very nice day Sat.
Long Term: (Sun to next Thurs): The main unsettled portion of the long term looks to be Sun-Tue. After that, the wx looks largely benign for quite a while.
For Sun, a front approaches the area. Looks like widespread convection will fire early in the afternoon over PA then propagate E during the day. May get here too late for widespread severe here, but there should be at least widespread rain w/imbedded thunder. Temps will be tricky. I cut about 5 deg off guidance, because I think too many ECMWF members are skewing the mean. ECMWF does not seem to realize a cold front is going thru. Highs should be near 70.
For Mon, the front sags S of the region, but stays close enough to keep at least moderate levels of humidity. W/no real high pressure building in behind the front, I think we need at least slight chances for diurnal based t-storms, esp along the S coast, where you'll be closer to the front. W/more sun, we should definitely turn warmer. I went very close to guidance highs near 80 degrees, except allowed for some low 80s along I 91, where I went a touch warmer than guidance.
For Tue, another cold front approaches the area, which will serve to fire scattered t-storms once again. This front will also absorb the old front and allow our wx to calm down, at least for a while. Once again, high temps generally close to 80, but I could see low 80s near I 91. So I went close to guidance, but a bit above along I 91.
The rest of the long term looks quiet. There probably will not be another chance of any precip until the following weekend and that does not look widespread, at least from this far out. Cold air advection on both Wed and Thu looks stronger than the NBM would advertise. This far out, when you have advection, whether warm or cold, a blended avg will underdo it. Therefore, I went 3-5 deg below guidance both days. Should be absolutely beautiful w/low dew points. There could even be refreshing wind gusts up to 25-30 MPH on Thu! Look for highs of 70-75 both days, with Wed being the cooler day, and a few 75+ readings possible near I 91 on Thu.
The long range looks pretty normal, both w/regards to temps and precip. There look to be cold fronts every few days, which both bring a chance of a t-storm to keep our precip normal and also end warm-ups to keep temps near normal. A very normal looking June pattern in the long range!
Now, let's take a look at a couple graphical products, showing the main wx threats for this fcst package. First, I have a map for Sun's cold front and secondly, a map for Tue's cold front. You can see, on this map valid late in the day Sun, precip is on going across much of the NE, w/CT being no exception.
The map I am posting for Tue is quite intriguing. Overall precip amounts could be lower, but if there really is a fairly strong low that close by, this could be a Western New Eng tornado threat! WAY Too early to start hyping this far out, but definitely something to keep an eye on!
Anyway, that's all for now... take care and see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
