Not a whole lot going on over the next five to ten days, so this discussion will be more brief than normal. The big highlight of the upcoming weather pattern will be a possible rainy period on Friday.
Tonight: Once again, a pretty good radiative night across the area. Lows in the 50s across the state.
Tomorrow: Sunshine and the warmest day of the week. Not much concern of sea breezes with a pretty strong gradient flow. Highs 80-85 statewide.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Clouds will increase tomorrow night. There is an impulse passing by to the south that could threaten the south coast. However, the only model at this time producing anything measurable is the NAM, so I'll ignore that for now, and just go with a cloudy forecast. The GFS keeps this system far enough to the south that most of the state is sunny on Thursday. The NAM keeps measurable precipitation over much of the state. For now, since most of the model guidance has no measurable and the NAM is all by itself, I'll go with a dry forecast. However, I won't go quite as sunny as the GFS, since mid and high level clouds tend to spread further north than the precipitation shield. As you might imagine, there is a large difference between model forecasted temperatures, given one model is mostly sunny and one has light rain and drizzle. For now, low 70s seems like a reasonable forecast.
Longer Term: It appears the best chance of rain across the state will be on Friday, as a coastal system bucks up against warmer air moving in and allows overrunning rain to break out. The heaviest rain should be during the morning hours on Friday, but most of the day could turn out rainy. With this forecast in mind, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. This high temperature forecast assumes that some sun will break out late in the day. These temperatures may have to be adjusted downward if rain lingers longer.
On Saturday, with cool high pressure in place, we should expect high temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s with low levels of humidity.
For Sunday, with high pressure moving offshore, warmer air should move in and highs should reach the low to mid 80s.
Thereafter, the weather turns more unsettled, with shower and thunderstorm chances. For now, the best chance seems to be Monday and then again on Wednesday, but this could very well change. Temperatures should be generally in the 80 to 85 degree range through that period.
Some of the 12Z models want to develop a big heat wave in the last week of June. However, I'm a bit hesitant to go all-in on that solution, since we still do have some ridging near Alaska, and that favors high pressure in Southeast Canada, but we'll see.
Now, let's look at the Thursday scenario in graphical format. Here's the GFS' presentation.
Tonight: Once again, a pretty good radiative night across the area. Lows in the 50s across the state.
Tomorrow: Sunshine and the warmest day of the week. Not much concern of sea breezes with a pretty strong gradient flow. Highs 80-85 statewide.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Clouds will increase tomorrow night. There is an impulse passing by to the south that could threaten the south coast. However, the only model at this time producing anything measurable is the NAM, so I'll ignore that for now, and just go with a cloudy forecast. The GFS keeps this system far enough to the south that most of the state is sunny on Thursday. The NAM keeps measurable precipitation over much of the state. For now, since most of the model guidance has no measurable and the NAM is all by itself, I'll go with a dry forecast. However, I won't go quite as sunny as the GFS, since mid and high level clouds tend to spread further north than the precipitation shield. As you might imagine, there is a large difference between model forecasted temperatures, given one model is mostly sunny and one has light rain and drizzle. For now, low 70s seems like a reasonable forecast.
Longer Term: It appears the best chance of rain across the state will be on Friday, as a coastal system bucks up against warmer air moving in and allows overrunning rain to break out. The heaviest rain should be during the morning hours on Friday, but most of the day could turn out rainy. With this forecast in mind, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. This high temperature forecast assumes that some sun will break out late in the day. These temperatures may have to be adjusted downward if rain lingers longer.
On Saturday, with cool high pressure in place, we should expect high temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s with low levels of humidity.
For Sunday, with high pressure moving offshore, warmer air should move in and highs should reach the low to mid 80s.
Thereafter, the weather turns more unsettled, with shower and thunderstorm chances. For now, the best chance seems to be Monday and then again on Wednesday, but this could very well change. Temperatures should be generally in the 80 to 85 degree range through that period.
Some of the 12Z models want to develop a big heat wave in the last week of June. However, I'm a bit hesitant to go all-in on that solution, since we still do have some ridging near Alaska, and that favors high pressure in Southeast Canada, but we'll see.
Now, let's look at the Thursday scenario in graphical format. Here's the GFS' presentation.
Note how the GFS keeps all the measurable precipitation over Central New Jersey and over the ocean South of Long Island. Now let's take a look at the NAM, valid the same time frame.
As you can see, the precipitation on the NAM is much further north. On this frame, it is already raining in SW CT, and there is another slug of rain over upstate NY that could head this way.
Which model will be right? Based on past performance, most likely the GFS! Anyway, that's all for now.. have a great week!
-GP!
Which model will be right? Based on past performance, most likely the GFS! Anyway, that's all for now.. have a great week!
-GP!
