Currently: Cold high pressure near VA Beach providing the region with fair, but chilly wx today.
Tonight: Clouds increase, esp in the 2nd half of the night, so less than ideal radiational conditions. Went very close to NBM guidance. Frost formation is possible in the usually cooler 1/2 of the state. If you have any early plants planted, follow appropriate precautions. Temps generally in the mid to upper 30s.
Tomorrow: Again went pretty close to guidance. Nothing major pulling me too far from it. I do think we could be 10-20% cloudier than the NBM thinks, so I went just a deg or two lower here and there. Most, if not all, pcpn associated w/the little wave should stay to our north, so no precip in fcst. High temps generally in the mid to upper 50s.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Sunny and nice. Again went very close to guidance, w/no real reason to go one way or the other. Highs generally in the mid 60s, give or take a couple deg.
Longer Term: The only major system in the long term is a fairly strong cold frontal passage on Tue. There is a nonzero chance that it could spawn a chilly coastal low for Wed. But the chance is not real high, so that will not be included in the fcst (at least explicitly) right now.
For Sat, it looks like the wind flow is predominately onshore, so I went a bit below guidance temps. Looks like a chilly day, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
For Sun, I went closer to guidance. It could be an interesting day, as we bounce in and out of strong onshore flow. But I think there's enough of a break, or at least lessening in winds, to allow the entire state to get near 60, w/a corridor of up to 65 possible along I 91.
For Mon, I went just a touch below guidance on temps, w/highs generally in the upper 50s. Mon looks very similar to tomorrow, as a weak sys skirts by to the north, producing more mid and high level clouds than today's models suggest, but keeping all the precip to the north.
For Tue, we get some rain along a cold front. Some models do try to develop a chilly coastal low and linger it into Wed, so adjustments may need to be made here. For now, discounting that solution. I am predicting a similar fropa to the one we had last Sat night, when most of the rain falls after the fropa, so no t-storms expected. There could be a decent burst of rain either way. Guidance seems to be hinting at a warm surge ahead of this, but seems to forget that the Long Island Sound is S of CT, so I went way under guidance and have highs in the mid 50s.
For Wed, went just a bit below guidance on temps, w/fresh cold air advection. Highs only get to the mid and upper 50s, despite sun. Gusty NW flow adds to the chill. Obviously, if there is a coastal low, this fcst will have to be adjusted colder and rainier, but that is an outlier solution for now.
The long range is still basically unchanged from last week's disco. There still are not really any signs of any long-term significant warm up in the long range to speak of.
No graphics today, w/no significant systems expected until day 6.
That's all for now! See you next week!